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The Taiwan Strait Getting Hot, Hot, Hot…2.0
The Taiwan Strait Getting Hot, Hot, Hot…2.0 We originally posted the following in October 2018 after President Trump threw Montenegro, then the newest member of NATO under the bus a few months earlier. We suspected POTUS’ loose lips would someday sink ships, at least metaphorically, if not literally. The flapping of his jaws back in July 2018, […]
US Facing Mounting Debt Amid Global Pandemic – ABC
US Facing Mounting Debt Amid Global Pandemic – ABC Good interview with Professor Barry Eichengreen of UC Berkeley, a good friend of GMM, and odds on favorite to be a Nobel laureate one day. We agree with him that now is not the time to worry about the public debt as we are already down this rabbit hole and […]
The Bubble In A Fairy Tale World
The Bubble In A Fairy Tale World Great interview with Michael Novogratz, Galaxy Digital founder, CEO, and chairman. He sounds exactly like the global macro heads at GMM. His money quotes from the July 8th CNBC interview should sound very familiar to our readers. Money Quotes Macro set-up is so perfect for something like gold…central banks around […]
Market Begins To Internalize Reality
Market Begins To Internalize Reality Summary The financial media is beginning assign blame to the recent stock market weakness to the spike in COVID cases and the potential for a November Democratic sweep of the White House and both chambers of Congress Nothing new to GMM as we have been on this early and stood alone […]
Battle OF The Fibos & The Negative Yield Wall
Battle OF The Fibos & The Negative Yield Wall Fibonacci retracement levels are horizontal lines that indicate where support and resistance are likely to occur. They are based on Fibonacci numbers. Each level is associated with a percentage. The percentage is how much of a prior move the price has retraced. The Fibonacci retracement levels are 23.6%, 38.2%, 61.8%, and 78.6%. While […]
GDP Now Q2 Estimate At -34.90 Percent, So What Now?
GDP Now Q2 Estimate At -34.90 Percent, So What Now? Summary The Atlanta Fed’s GDP Now is estimating a -34.9 percent Q2 GDP print, which is 3.5x the largest quarterly decline in the post-WWII economy If realized, the 11.3 percent non annualized first-half GDP collapse in 2020 will approach the worse year of the Great Depression, […]
Long Pitchforks And Water Cannons
Long Pitchforks And Water Cannons The juxtaposition of the following two tweets is absolutely stunning and just freaking… WOW! Potential Major Political Blowback Can you imagine the political blowback that is coming if the economy doesn’t snap back soon as the levered bad actor oil companies (just to name one sector) have been bailed out while […]
Wall Street Has Now Morphed Into A Full Blown Soviet Sausage Factory
Wall Street Has Now Morphed Into A Full Blown Soviet Sausage Factory To paraphrase the police officer who told me my old neighborhood had burned down during the 2017 NorCal fires, “the markets are no more.” After the Fed announced it is bailing out junk bonds today, Wall Street has now morphed into a full-blown “Soviet […]
The Global Supply & Demand Shock Of The Coronavirus
The Global Supply & Demand Shock Of The Coronavirus Our analysis of the impact of the Coronavirus is a work in progress and nobody knows the endgame. It is still the early days of the epidemic, and its dynamics will take time to understand. The scale of the impact will depend on how contagious and lethal […]
Household Leverage Ratios By Wealth Distribution
Household Leverage Ratios By Wealth Distribution We are just starting play with the wealth distribution data and will have much more coming your way. What we have seen so far is shocking. The distribution of wealth has deteriorated significantly over the past 20 years and is now so skewed toward the top that average U.S. household […]
Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) Has An Argentina Problem
Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) Has An Argentina Problem Proponents of Modern Monetary Theory emphasize that a country that controls its own currency and borrows in its own currency, like the United States, cannot default on its debt. This is because the central bank can, if necessary, “print” the money needed to pay the government’s creditors… — Econofact The MMT […]
On This Day: One Wrong Turn & History’s Biggest “Butterfly Effect”
On This Day: One Wrong Turn & History’s Biggest “Butterfly Effect” This post seems more relevant than ever as many believe the initial conditions of today are very similar to those of the Spring and Summer of 1914. One wrong turn, one small change in initial conditions can change the course of history enormously. Originally Posted on June 27, […]
In Honor Of Veteran’s Day: The Butterfly Effect
In Honor Of Veteran’s Day: The Butterfly Effect To honor Veterans’s Day, we are reposting our June 2017 butterfly piece, which illustrates how sleepwalking can lead the world into a war that nobody wants. French President, Emmanuel Macron, warned today about sleepwalking into another great conflict. “I know there are old demons which are coming back […]
Where The Next Financial Crisis Begins
Where The Next Financial Crisis Begins We are not sure of how the next financial crisis will exactly unfold but reasonably confident it will have its roots in the following analysis. Maybe it has already begun. The U.S. Treasury market is the center of the financial universe and the 10-year yield is the most important price […]
The Taiwan Strait Getting Hot, Hot, Hot…
The Taiwan Strait Getting Hot, Hot, Hot… We posted the following in July after President Trump threw Montenegro under the bus. Taiwan may be about to get hot, hot, hot in the next year after last night’s Commander in Chief’s ambiguous message on defense treaties. – GMM One of GMM‘s most excellent followers, who we very much […]
