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Are We Entering an Earnings/Sales Recession?

Are We Entering an Earnings/Sales Recession? Are corporate profits due for a retest of the lower channel line? If so, what happens to equity valuations when corporate profits plummet? Is the U.S. economy in recession? Is it heading for recession? These questions can only be answered in hindsight, but it’s worth looking for clues to what […]

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Money Velocity Is Crashing–Here’s Why

Money Velocity Is Crashing–Here’s Why The inescapable conclusion is that Fed policies have effectively crashed the velocity of money. That the velocity of money has been crashing while the money supply has been exploding doesn’t seem to bother the mainstream pundits. There is always a fancy-footwork explanation of why whatever is crashing no longer matters. Take […]

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Is This How the Next Global Financial Meltdown Will Unfold?

Is This How the Next Global Financial Meltdown Will Unfold? In effect, a currency crisis is simply the abrupt revaluation of the currency to reflect new realities. I have long maintained that the structural imbalances of debt and risk that triggered the Global Financial Meltdown of 2008-2009 have effectively been transferred to the foreign exchange […]

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The Next Financial Crisis Won’t be Like the Last One

The Next Financial Crisis Won’t be Like the Last One It seems increasingly likely the next Global Financial Meltdown will arise in the FX/currency markets. Central banks are like generals: they tend to fight the last war. The Great Financial meltdown of 2008 was centered in too big to fail, too big to jailtransnational banks and other […]

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A Major Bank Just Made Global Financial “Meltdown” Its Base Case: “The Worst The World Has Ever Seen”

A Major Bank Just Made Global Financial “Meltdown” Its Base Case: “The Worst The World Has Ever Seen” When it comes to the epic bubble in China’s economy, it really boils down to one – or rather two – things: a vast debt build up (by now everybody should be familiar with McKinsey’s chart showing China’s […]

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Future Shock and the Greening of America

Future Shock and the Greening of America What I find fascinating is our limited ability to make sense of trends unfolding in real time. During our recent breakfast meeting in Berkeley, author/blogger Jim Kunstler suggested that the coherence of eras waxed and waned, and the present era was incoherent. By this he meant the narratives being […]

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Olduvai IV: Courage
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Olduvai II: Exodus
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