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Could the markets crash again?

This is the #1 question I’m receiving from subscribers. When I ask them why they’re concerned, the #1 explanation is that the economy is in a recession/depression and yet stocks are close to or have already hit new all-time highs.

Let’s dissect this way of thinking…

First and foremost, we need to dispel the myth that the stock market and the economy are closely related.

As Puru Saxena has noted, between 1972 and 1982, the US economy nearly tripled in size from $1.2 trillion to $3.2 trillion. And yet, throughout that entire period the stock market traded sideways for ZERO GAINS!

In contrast, from 1982 to 2000, the US economy again nearly tripled in size from $3.2 trillion to $10 trillion. But during this particular time, the stock market exploded higher rising nearly 1,500%!

So, we have two time periods in which the economy nearly tripled in size. During one of them, the stock market went nowhere, while during the other, the stock market rose nearly 1,500%.

Again, stocks have little if any correlation to the economy. There are times when stocks will care a lot about the economy, but those time periods are usually short and due to an unexpected surprise (like the surprise of the economy being shut down to deal with the COVID-19 pandemic).

So, what do stocks care about?

Liquidity.

Historically, whenever central banks start printing money at a rapid clip, stocks do well. A great example of this is the time period from 2008 to 2016 when the economy was weak at best and flatlining at worst. But because the Fed printed over $3.5 trillion during this time period, socks soared, rising over 100%.

Which brings us to today… stocks are rallying hard yet again, despite the economy being extremely weak.

The reason for this is because of the TSUNAMI of liquidity policymakers are throwing at the financial system.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Fed’s Couldn’t Even Stomach a 10% Drop in Stocks… It’s Officially in the Bubble Business

June 18, 2020

The Fed’s Couldn’t Even Stomach a 10% Drop in Stocks… It’s Officially in the Bubble Business

The Fed will soon be buying stocks.

Earlier this week, the Fed announced that it will begin buying corporate bonds from individual companies. Before this announcement, the Fed was already involved in the:

The Treasury markets (US sovereign debt)
The municipal bond markets (debt issued by states and cities)
The corporate bond markets by index (debt issued by corporations)
The commercial paper markets (short-term corporate debt market)
And the asset-backed security markets (everything from student loans to certificates of deposit and more).

With the introduction of individual corporate bonds, the Fed is now one step closer to buying stocks outright.

Indeed, the Fed has made ZERO references to stopping its monetary madness. Just yesterday Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized to Congress that the Fed is “years away from halting its assets monetization scheme.”

Again, the Fed is explicitly telling us that it plans on buying assets (Treasuries, municipal bonds, corporate bonds, etc.) for years to come.

The next step will be for the Fed to buy stocks.

It won’t be the first central bank to do so…

The central bank of Switzerland, called the Swiss National Bank has been buying stocks for years. Yes. It literally prints money and buys stocks in the U.S. stock markets.

Then there’s Japan’s central bank, called the Bank of Japan. It also prints money and buys stocks outright. As of March 2019, it owned 80% of Japan’s ETFs.

Yes, 80%.

The BoJ is also a top-10 shareholder in over 50% of the companies that trade on the Japanese stock market.

If you think this can’t happen in the US, think again. The Fed told us in 2019 that it would be forced to engage in EXTREME monetary policies during the next downturn.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Fed Just Admitted It Won’t Stop Printing Money For YEARS… Here’s How to Profit From This

June 17, 2020

The Fed Just Admitted It Won’t Stop Printing Money For YEARS… Here’s How to Profit From This

The Fed will soon be buying stocks.

Earlier this week, the Fed announced that it will begin buying corporate bonds from individual companies. Before this announcement, the Fed was already involved in the:

The Treasury markets (US sovereign debt)
The municipal bond markets (debt issued by states and cities)
The corporate bond markets by index (debt issued by corporations)
The commercial paper markets (short-term corporate debt market)
And the asset-backed security markets (everything from student loans to certificates of deposit and more).

With the introduction of individual corporate bonds, the Fed is now one step closer to buying stocks outright.

Again, the Fed is explicitly telling us that it plans on buying assets (Treasuries, municipal bonds, corporate bonds, etc.) for years to come.

The next step will be for the Fed to buy stocks.

It won’t be the first central bank to do so…

The central bank of Switzerland, called the Swiss National Bank has been buying stocks for years. Yes. It literally prints money and buys stocks in the U.S. stock markets.

Then there’s Japan’s central bank, called the Bank of Japan. It also prints money and buys stocks outright. As of March 2019, it owned 80% of Japan’s ETFs.

Yes, 80%.

The BoJ is also a top-10 shareholder in over 50% of the companies that trade on the Japanese stock market.

If you think this can’t happen in the US, think again. The Fed told us in 2019 that it would be forced to engage in EXTREME monetary policies during the next downturn.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

If Stocks Don’t Hold Here We Could See Another Crash of Sorts

June 15, 2020

If Stocks Don’t Hold Here We Could See Another Crash of Sorts

Stocks have fallen hard over the weekend again. The media is pinning this drop on the potential for another COVID-19 pandemic, but the facts don’t support that theory.

At times like these, it’s essential to ignore narratives, and focus on price. With that in mind, the S&P 500 remains in an uptrend, barely (blue lines in the chart below). Stocks need to hold here for the bull market case to remain intact.

If stocks break down from here, there are two items in play. One is support at 2,940 (lower green line in the chart below). The other is the gap established by the open on May 18^th (blue rectangle in the chart below).

When we plot the S&P 500 against the VIX (inverted), it looks like there’s more downside to go here.

However, both breadth and credit suggest the downside is limited here.

My point with all of this is that today the market is literally a crap shoot. The easy money from the rally has been made, and the next trend is not clear yet. So now is NOT the time to be putting a load of capital to work.

However, if stocks don’t hold here, we could potentially see a crash down to 2,700.

That is a high reward type move. And one we need to consider.

The $USD is Warning Us That Something Big is Coming

June 10, 2020

The $USD is Warning Us That Something Big is Coming

Things are beginning to get out of control in currency land.

The $USD is collapsing. Astute chart readers will note that the $USD has already experienced two sharp drops in the last few months (blue rectangles in the chart below). They occurred in late February before the COVID-19 shutdown and late March after the COVID-19 market meltdown subsided.

So why is this current drop (green rectangle in the chart above) so important?

Because this collapse is happening outside of a crisis.

The other two sharp drops were triggered by true Black Swan events (an economic shutdown and viral pandemic). This one is happening while things are actually returning to normal.

Put another way, the $USD is telling us that:

1) Either another Black Swan event is underway already.

2) The world is losing faith in the $USD based on the Fed’s’/ Federal Government’s money printing and stimulus.

For a better perspective on what I am talking about take a look at the next chart. The $USD is breaking its bull market trendline at a rapid clip. The only other time it did this was right before the COVID-19 black swan event.

Something BAD is brewing in the financial system. And it’s going to catch 99% of investors by surprise.

Are Bonds and Gold Telling Us Inflation Is Coming?

June 7, 2020

Are Bonds and Gold Telling Us Inflation Is Coming?

Stocks continue to ignore 40 million unemployed, an economic depression, and societal collapse/ riots.

The S&P 500 rallied yesterday to test major resistance at 3,100. The market is nearing the point of its rising wedge. A big move is coming.

The VIX is also warning us that a big move is coming. It too is at the point of its wedge formation.

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Meanwhile, the 5-year, 30-year yield curve has steepened to levels not seen since 2017. Is this predicting an economic boom or raging inflation?

Gold suggests it’s the latter. The precious metal is going vertical against every major currency: dollars, euros, yen and francs.

Just What Is Warren Buffet and the Fed Seeing To Make Them Do This?

May 25, 2020

Just What Is Warren Buffet and the Fed Seeing To Make Them Do This?

The US is lurching towards an economic catastrophe.

If you’ve been paying attention, over the last few weeks there have been several LARGE “tells.” Those tells were two of the BIGGEST cheerleaders for stocks in history, Warren Buffett and the Fed, getting EXTREMELY bearish.

First and foremost, Warren Buffett, the man who famously stated that he likes to own companies for a long-time, ideally “forever,” has begun dumping huge quantities of stocks.

All told, Buffett sold 21 stocks worth over the last four months. He’s unloaded large portions of his holdings in Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, and other large banks, as well as multiple airline stocks, pharmaceuticals, and energy stocks.

The media claims Buffett is doing this because he wants to make sure he owns less than 10% of these companies, but when do you remember Buffett ever unloading so many stocks worth billions of dollars in such a short period?

On top of this Buffett didn’t use the March meltdown to load up on investments.

Put another way, during the largest market collapse in years, at a time when many businesses were on sale, Buffett didn’t buy anything (he sold the airlines stocks he tried to buy) but rather chose to start unloading several of his largest positions?

Whatever Buffett is seeing in the economy that is making him do this… it’s NOT good.

Then there’s the Fed.

For decades now, the Fed has been a cheerleader for the economy and stocks.

Indeed, it is extremely rare to find the Fed ever issue a gloomy view of the economy or markets. Which is why it’s astonishing to see the Fed making statements that you would expect from a raging bear.

During the last week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell has publicly stated:

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

How to Prepare For the Coming Wealth Grab

May 17, 2020

How to Prepare For the Coming Wealth Grab

And here comes the next round of stimulus.

As long as large portions of the economy remain on lockdown, the government will be forced to perform massive stimulus programs/ social spending. As I write this Friday morning, the House is preparing to vote on a $3 trillion stimulus bill later today.

While the particular bill in question is chock full of Democrats’ legislation (more abortion funding, banning voter IDs, etc.), and likely won’t make it through the Senate in this particular form, the White House and the GOP are both in favor of providing additional stimulus checks to Americans in the near future.

Put simply, regardless of specific political affiliations, the political class is currently in favor of spending vast amounts of money right now.

All of this money has to come from somewhere. Currently, it’s the debt markets (the Treasury will borrow $3 trillion between April and June alone). But at some point, the Powers That Be will begin looking for new sources of capital.

Indeed, if history has taught us anything it’s that once the government/ elites use a crisis to make a massive power grab, rarely if ever is that power given back to the people.

We saw this with the Patriot Act in 2001, the policy response to the 2008 crisis. And it’s happening again today with the economic shutdown. While individual states will all eventually reopen, the fact is that the US just took a massive jump towards outright socialism/ central planning. And the political class LOVES it.

This will result in a collapsing economy, which in turn will mean lower tax revenues, which in turn will mean a greater need for capital to finance social spending programs/ unemployment/ stimulus checks.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Fed is Going to Cut Rates to Negative 3% If Not 5%

April 23, 2019

The Fed is Going to Cut Rates to Negative 3% If Not 5%

As I warned last week, while most of the investment world has been glued to their trading screens watching the stock market rally.. something nefarious has been unfolding behind the scenes.

That “something” is the Fed and other regulators implementing plans that will begin allow for large-scale cash grabs when the next downturn hits.

While stocks roared higher, Fed officials began openly calling for more extreme monetary policies including NEGATIVE Interest Rate Policy or NIRP.

NIRP is when a bank charges YOU for the right to keep your money there.

If you think this is conspiracy theory, consider that on February 5^th 2019, the IMF published a report outlining how Central Banks could cut rates into DEEPLY negative territory.

We’re not talking negative 0.5%… we’re talking negative 3% or even 5%.

Many central banks reduced policy interest rates to zero during the global financial crisis to boost growth. Ten years later, interest rates remain low in most countries. While the global economy has been recovering, future downturns are inevitable. Severe recessions have historically required 3–6 percentage points cut in policy rates. If another crisis happens, few countries would have that kind of room for monetary policy to respond.

To get around this problem, a recent IMF staff study shows how central banks can set up a system that would make deeply negative interest rates a feasible option.

Source: IMF

Any time the elites want to implement a new policy, the IMF is the “go-to” organization to introduce the idea.

It was the IMF that signed off on the disastrous Greek bail-out deals in 2010-2012.

It was also the IMF that “signed off” on the “bail-ins” in Cyprus, in which savings deposits lost as much as 50% in 2013.

Now the IMF is promoting the idea that Central Banks should cut rates into “deeply” negative territory during the next downturn.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Central Banks have created the single most dangerous environment possible…

April 4, 2019

Central Banks have created the single most dangerous environment possible…

That is the environment in which the economy is weakening, but investors are pouring into risk assets based on hopes that Central Banks will engage in more stimulus.

This is precisely what happened in the late ‘90s as well as in late 2007-early 2008.

Will the outcome be different this time?

In the near-term, traders will gun the market to new all-time highs. We’re too close for them not to. And until institutions start selling in droves again, we’re in a “trader’s games” market.

This means north of 3,000 on the S&P 500.

This doesn’t make sense… but markets never make sense during bubbles.

The bigger issue is what comes after that breakout to new all-time highs.

And THAT is where you need to be worried.

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The bond market typically predicts disaster long before stocks “get it.” We saw this in 2008 where bond yields rolled over to new lows while stocks continued to rally… right up until the CRASH…

…And they are doing it now too.

So enjoy the rally while it lasts, but don’t be fooled. What’s coming won’t be pretty. And if you’re interested in profiting from it, the time to prepare is now.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

NIRP, Cash Bans and Wealth Taxes Are Coming to the US

February 1, 2019

NIRP, Cash Bans and Wealth Taxes Are Coming to the US

If you’re looking for a template for what’s coming to the US during the next crisis, Europe is the place to start.

Europe has already imposed cash grabs via Negative Interest Rate Policy (NIRP). That’s where banks CHARGE you for the right to keep your money.

Europe is also where ATMs and banks have limited cash withdrawals, so people who try to avoid paying the interest caused by NIRP face obstacle after obstacle as they try to get their money out.

Europe is also where regulators seized over 50% of deposits over a certain amount in order to prop up a failing bank. It’s called a “Bail-In” but it was abject theft.

If you think these things aren’t coming to the US, you’re mistaken. As I detail out in my best-selling book The Everything Bubble: The Endgame For Central Bank Policy the political elite have already been looking into ways to implement ALL of these strategies.

And if you think this will only be targeted at the very wealthy, consider that the IMF has already proposed a 10% wealth tax on NET wealth for everyone.

Why Deal With Structural Issues When You Can Simply Engage in Wealth Grabs?

January 26, 2019

Why Deal With Structural Issues When You Can Simply Engage in Wealth Grabs?

They’re coming for your money.

The Everything Bubble has burst and the debt markets are in distress. We’ve already seen yields rise above their long-term downtrend, suggesting that higher debt costs are now a reality.

Because any real structural solution to this (cutting social programs/ defaulting on debts) means political suicide, the political elite are desperate for capital to continue funding the bloated government budget.

Already Oxfam is proposing a 1% tax wealth tax to solve the “crisis.”

If you think that’s bad, consider that the IMF has proposed a 10% wealth tax on total net worth.

And we are seeing Presidential hopefuls such as Elizabeth Warren calling for a 2% tax on wealth for those worth more than $50 million.

All of this is being sold as “making things fair” or “battling inequality” but the reality is that none of these organizations or people really care about that stuff. If they did care they would be proposing solutions that had a chance of possibly working (even a lifetime 100% wealth tax on anyone worth more than $1 million wouldn’t cover the US deficit for more than a year or two).

What they care about is finding money to continue funding Big Government.

If you think this will stop at those with net worth in the eight figures, you’re mistaken. Nebulous financial concepts such as “fairness” are ALWAYS moving goalposts in the hands of socialists.

Indeed, already legislation is in place to use savings deposits to prop up any systemically important financial institution during the next crisis.

I’m not talking about savings deposits over $1 million… I’m talking about savings deposits PERIOD.

Black Swan Watch: China Has Added Over $50 TRILLION in Financial Assets Since 2014

January 12, 2019

Black Swan Watch: China Has Added Over $50 TRILLION in Financial Assets Since 2014

The biggest black swan facing the financial system is China.

China has been the primary driver of growth for the global economy since the 2008 Crisis. Despite only accounting for 15% of global GDP, China accounts for 25%-30% of GDP growth.

Put simply, from an economic perspective, if China catches cold, the world gets sick… and if China goes into a coma…

Which is why anyone paying attention should be truly horrified by the latest round of data from China’s economy.

In December, China’s Manufacturing PMI came in below 50, signaling a contraction is underway.

This is a massive deal because this was an OFFICIAL data point, meaning one that China had heavily massaged to look better than reality.

Let me explain…

Over the last 30 years China’s economic data has ALWAYS overstated growth. The reason for this is very simple: if you are an economic minister/ government employee who lives in a regime in which leadership will have you jailed or executed for missing your numbers, the numbers are ALWAYS great.

Indeed, this is an open secret in China, to the degree that former First Vice Premiere of China, Li Keqiang, admitted to the US ambassador to China that ALL Chinese data, outside of electricity consumption, railroad cargo, and bank lending is for “reference only.”

With that in mind, we have to ask… how horrific is the situation in China’s financial system that even the heavily massaged data is showing a contraction is underway?

Think “systemic risk” bad.

I’ve already outlined how China is sitting atop 15% of all junk debt in the global financial system, resulting in the country’s “bad debt” to GDP ratio exceeding 80% (a first in history).

However, it now appears that even that assessment was too rosy.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Everything Bubble Has Met Its Needle… and It’s Named Jerome Powell

January 4, 2019

The Everything Bubble Has Met Its Needle… and It’s Named Jerome Powell

In December, Jerome Powell confirmed that he is going to implement a financial reset.

That reset will crash stocks.

We know this because the Fed didn’t even HINT at tapering its Quantitative Tightening program at this latest Fed FOMC despite stocks staging the worst December since the Great Depression.

This tells us that the Powell Fed is going to normalize the Fed’s balance sheet no matter what. And THAT is the real issue for the financial markets (the withdrawal of liquidity) NOT rate hikes/cuts.

This is what the market is reacting to. Stocks now know that the era of easy money is over. The Fed is being run by a man who doesn’t see it has his job to create/sustain asset bubbles.

And that is why The Fed Has Confirmed It Will Crash Stocks

In December, Jerome Powell confirmed that he is going to implement a financial reset.

That reset will crash stocks.

We know this because the Fed didn’t even HINT at tapering its Quantitative Tightening program at this latest Fed FOMC despite stocks staging the worst December since the Great Depression.

This is what the market is reacting to. Stocks now know that the era of easy money is over. The Fed is being run by a man who doesn’t see it has his job to create/sustain asset bubbles.

And that is why we are going to crash.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

By the Time the Fed Hits Its Goals, the Markets Will Be Crashing

September 20, 2018

By the Time the Fed Hits Its Goals, the Markets Will Be Crashing

The Powell Fed has set one goal and one goal only for its policy…

Hitting the “neutral rate of interest.”

The neutral rate of interest is when the Fed has rates equal to the pace of inflation. While this is technicallywhat the Fed is SUPPOSED to be doing, NO Fed (or any other Central Bank for that matter) has done it in over 30 years: the Greenspan, Bernanke, and Yellen Feds were all notorious for running “accommodative” policy in which rates were kept well BELOW the rate of inflation.

Indeed, if you had to summate Fed policy from 1987 to 2018, the best word would be “accommodative.” It is not coincidental that this time period coincided with serial bubbles in the financial markets. This was done intentionally by Alan Greenspan, Ben Bernanke, and Janet Yellen.

Not Jerome Powell. During his July Q&A session with Congress in July, Fed Chair Powell emphasized that the most important focus for the Fed under his leadership would be “a neutral rate of interest.”

In answering a question [concerning the yield curve flattening] from Senator Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania, Powell said that, in his view, “What really matters is what the neutral rate of interest is.” And perhaps longer-term Treasury yields send a message about that rate.

Source: Bloomberg

I initially thought this was Powell playing to Congress (for 30+ years Fed Chairs have simply told Congress what it wanted to hear during their testimony). However, since that time, the Powell Fed has made it 100% clear that it did in fact WANT neutral rates.

Last month, Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan outlined this in no uncertain terms.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

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