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What is Energy Security?

What does it mean for a society to have “energy security”? Although there are more than forty different definitions of the concept, they all share the fundamental idea that energy supply should always meet energy demand. This also implies that energy supply needs to be constant – there can be no interruptions in the service. [1-4] For example, the International Energy Agency (IEA) defines energy security as “the uninterrupted availability of energy sources at an affordable price”, the US Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) defines the concept as meaning that “the risks of interruption to energy supply are low”, and the EU defines it as a “stable and abundant supply of energy”. [5-7]

Historically, energy security was achieved by securing access to forests or peat bogs for thermal energy, and to human, animal, wind or water power sources for mechanical energy. With the arrival of the Industrial Revolution, energy security came to depend on the supply of fossil fuels. As a theoretical concept, energy security is most closely related to the oil crises from the 1970s, when embargoes and price manipulations limited oil supply to Western nations. As a result, most industrialised societies still stockpile oil reserves that are equivalent to several months of consumption.

Although oil remains as vital to industrial economies as it was in the 1970s, mainly for transportation and agriculture, it’s now recognised that energy security in modern societies also depends on other infrastructures, such as those supplying gas, electricity, and even data. Furthermore, these infrastructures increasingly interconnect and depend on each other. For example, gas is an important fuel for power production, while the power grid is now required to operate gas pipelines. Power grids are needed to run data networks, and data networks are now needed to run power grids.

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Energy Diplomacy and Security in the Age of Shale Gas Revolution

August 8, 2018

Energy Diplomacy and Security in the Age of Shale Gas Revolution

Importance of energy security

Energy today seems like the very essence of international politics. No overview of current world affairs is meaningful without an examination of the role played by energy. Energy producers, energy consumers, and energy transporters in any country become more important in accordance with the role they play. The study of world affairs requires an understanding of global energy dynamics. What happens above the ground, under the ground, or among nations contributes to the definition of peace and coexistence in various regions of the planet. By addressing questions of availability and the acquisition of energy we paint a complete picture of the situation throughout the world. When inquiries about energy have not been answered, nothing has been fully answered.

There are issues that need to be explored in relation to energy and its importance to world affairs. We can sketch out some of them, starting with the importance of the issues of security.

These are: Security from energy shortages, security from events above the ground, the security of energy transportation, security from financial turmoil, and European energy security.

1. Security from inadequate energy

It is of crucial importance for every sovereign nation to have guaranteed supplies of energy. Some are blessed with the ability to produce enough energy (oil or gas) supplies to satisfy their needs and export to others. These countries, apart from being energy sufficient, are also quite wealthy due to their ample resources. They do however face problems of their own. The availability of natural resources leads nations to serious economic problems. The inflow of foreign currency raises exchange rates, making any domestic products very expensive — thus hurting exports while imports become cheap and very attractive. In this way domestic industry suffers and consumers turn to foreign imported goods.

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The Pros And Cons Of Nord Stream 2

February 27, 2018

The Pros And Cons Of Nord Stream 2

There are few issues as divisive in the EU as the planned construction of Nord Stream 2, another direct gas infrastructure connection between Germany and the Russian Federation.

With the climate of relations between Russia and the West just above the point of freezing, the agreement between Gazprom (MCX:GAZP) and its Western counterparts Shell (NYSE:RDS-A), OMV (VIE:OMV), ENGIE (EPA:ENGI), Uniper (ETR:UN01), and Wintershall has caused critics of closer relations with Russia to mobilize.

While supporters of the project insist that it isn’t more than a commercial deal (mostly Western European countries and companies), opponents (Central and Eastern Europe) are convinced that the deal will give Moscow more unwanted influence.

Here, we’ll discuss the arguments of opponents and proponents of the proposed gas infrastructure in order to make a modest recommendation regarding Europe’s common interest.

Currently, over almost 40 percent of the gas consumed in the EU originates from Russia, making Moscow the biggest supplier, followed closely by Norway and Algeria. Even though many policy declarations were made to diversify and several serious crises involved Russia, the export of Siberian gas to Europe increased spectacularly — from 8 percent in 2017 to a record 195 bcm.

The most important reasons behind this growth are the expanding economy of the Eurozone and domestic gas fields that are producing less. Although Europe currently possesses 208 bcm of LNG capacity, of that just 51 bcm was used in 2016. Most of the capacity was idle due to much cheaper pipeline gas, especially from Russia.

Proponents, therefore, argue that Nord Stream 2’s importance will increase over the years as demand for imported gas will do the same. Furthermore, several crises over the years between Russia and Ukraine have severely damaged Europe’s energy security (and Russia’s, opponents argue). According to supporters, Nord Stream 2 will improve Europe’s position, as transit through Ukraine can be avoided and risks decreased.

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Peak Oil: Are We Not Better Than This? Pt 5

May 2, 2016

Peak Oil: Are We Not Better Than This? Pt 5

[T]he West’s energy security is assured to a degree that has not existed in the past.
That’s good news for the American people and for the world, even if it is not news that Obama wants to hear.

He doesn’t? I wonder how that author knows this? Any chance it’s instead just a variation of the same let’s-not-consider-facts-and-instead-just-make-stuff-up-to-“prove”-our-point-and-keep-the-followers-properly-agitated strategy?

With a century’s worth of cheap, practical energy in hand, the global economy has a good chance of expanding.

A “good chance”?! And that would be based on … what?

What if we actually had meaningful discussions about the assertions contained in ExxonMobil’s “The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040” report which the author of the above-quote focused on [in one of the two articles which serve as the foundation of this series]? What if it was finally agreed that just firing off assertions based on little more than conjecture, hope, or a let’s-do-or-say-whatever-we-have-to animosity?

There’s no reason my grandchildren should not be living ten times as well as I am today. What stands in their way is not a lack of resources or technology – it’s government. Specially, liberal government.

Of course that’s the problem! Geology? Costs? An array of exploration, production, financial, and access considerations? Nah! Just liberals in keeping with their still vast, double-top-super-duper-secret conspiracy to … do stuff that the Right doesn’t approve of. We certainly don’t want our children or grandchildren to have better opportunities and better lives than we’ve enjoyed! Nope!

Our focus continues to be solely on dealing with facts, raising concerns based on same, seeking options and alternatives, planning, preparing, and … wait! Where is that approach going to take all of us? Damn those facts!

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Why we need a diverse electricity generation portfolio: House hearing 2013

March 16, 2016

Why we need a diverse electricity generation portfolio: House hearing 2013

House 113-12. March 5, 2013. American Energy security and innovation. The role of a diverse electricity generation portfolio. House of Representatives. 135 pages.

June 5, 2015. Proposed Clean Power Plan would accelerate renewable additions and coal plant retirements. U.S. Energy Information Administration
Even without the Clean Power Plan rule (CPP), 40 GW of coal capacity is expected to retire by 2040. If the CPP is passed, between 90 to 101 GW of coal plants may retire (EIA June 5 2015).
The EIA expects 46 to 62 GW of natural gas plant retirements replaced by 166 GW.
Coal plant retirement 40.1 GW by 2025 EIA DOE 2015 Annual energy outlook with projections to 2040.

Even in the absence of the proposed Clean Power Plan rule, 40 GW of existing coal-fired capacity and 46 GW of existing natural gas/oil-fired capacity are expected to retire through 2040 in the Reference case. Cases that implement the proposed Clean Power Plan rule accelerate and amplify these retirements, especially for coal. In the Base Policy case, 90 GW of coal-fired capacity and 62 GW of natural gas/oil-fired capacity retire by 2040. In the Policy Extension case, as emission rates continue declining after 2030, 101 GW of coal-fired generating capacity and 74 GW of natural gas/oil-fired generating capacity retire by 2040. The timing of the coal retirements is heavily influenced by implementation of environmental rules that may require power plant operators to either incur costs to retrofit power plants or receive less revenue because of lower levels of operation. As a result, coal retirements occur during the implementation of the Mercury and Air Toxics rule (in both the Reference case and Base Policy case), and in the initial year of the Clean Policy Plan implementation.

If EPA’s clean power plan and mercury and air toxis standards passes, then 60 GW of coal plants may retire early. EIA. March 20, 2014 Planned coal-fired power plant retirements continue to increase

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Libs Need Clearer Energy Security Plan, Says ‘After the Sands’ Author

October 26, 2015

Libs Need Clearer Energy Security Plan, Says ‘After the Sands’ Author

Increased oil patch ownership can help Canada meet emissions goals, says Gordon Laxer.

Gordon Laxer says Canada is highly vulnerable to another oil crisis. Pipeline photo via Shutterstock.

[Editor’s note: Join Dr. Gordon Laxer, political economist and co-founder of the Parkland Institute, for a free talk about ‘After the Sands,’ a new book for anyone concerned about rising sea levels, pipeline and tanker spills, climate change chaos and Canada’s future in a carbon restricted world. Tuesday, Oct. 27 at 7 p.m., The Hive, 128 W. Hastings St., Vancouver.]

Justin Trudeau has to move beyond his murky energy policy and set out clear plans to reduce carbon emissions and improve oil security, says political economist Gordon Laxer.

And the new Liberal government should take steps to increase Canadian ownership in the energy sector if it wants to achieve those goals, said Laxer, whose latest book, After the Sands, argues that Canada must improve its energy security and become a low-carbon society.

Laxer said Canada is highly vulnerable to another oil crisis, which he expects in the next couple of years. The United States is working to lower oil imports and has created strategic oil reserves, Laxer said. Other countries have also focused on energy security.

“We import 40 per cent of our oil, and we have no program,” he said. “We belong to the International Energy Agency. There are 28 countries; 26 of them have strategic petroleum reserves. Canada and Australia do not.”

Improving energy security will also play a big part in reducing greenhouse gas emissions and reshaping the economy, said Laxer, former head of the Parkland Institute at the University of Alberta.

The Canadian government has focused on increasing energy exports, and the country now exports about four times as much oil as it imports.

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Energy Security in the EU: Pipelines, Powers, and Political Relations

June 23, 2015

Energy Security in the EU: Pipelines, Powers, and Political Relations

The Many Faces of Energy Security

The term “energy security,” despite its pessimistic applications and loose definitions, is profligately used in policy circles and academic fields. Limiting disruptions of supply to broader definitions, which have political, economic, and/or environmental bearing, is common of energy security treatments. According to the UK Department of Energy and Climate Change, it is taken as a country’s ability to ensure that the “risks of interruption to energy supply, are low.”

Three dimensions of energy security should be underscored: physical security, price security, and geopolitical security. Optimum energy security is achieved by avoiding physical interruptions, “unnecessary price spikes due to supply/demand imbalances or poor market operation” and “undue reliance on specific nations so as to maintain maximum degrees of freedom in foreign policy.” While some cover energy security from the perspective of the consumer, the significance of energydependence on supply-countries still tends to receive less coverage in the media.

The term frequently emerges within the geopolitical discourse of Europe and the European Union (EU), and the EU polity’s relationship with the Russian Federation. Energy security is a salient issue as it regards the geopolitical context of southeast Europe and the Black Sea region. Ukraine receives considerable attention because of its position between Russian and particular member states of the EU, making it a transit country – and one perceived with increasing unreliability as it provides Russia with its monopoly over supplies to much of the European market.

States and Energy

In early 2015, Gazprom head Alexei Miller announced that EU gas transit via Ukraine would be cut. South Stream was brought to a close by the EU Commission due to non-compliance with the EU’s energy laws.

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EU May Take Desperate Measures To Ensure Energy Security

May 30, 2015

EU May Take Desperate Measures To Ensure Energy Security

Oft forgotten and on the periphery of the European Union, the Balkans plus Ukraine may have a plan to address the energy needs of the economic bloc. It’s coal-heavy, borderline uneconomic, and arguably counterproductive to respective national agendas, but it does aim to satisfy some particularly topical pan-European goals: greater interconnection and greater energy security, i.e. reduced dependence on Russia.

Together, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia, and Ukraine are planning to add nearly 15 gigawatts (GW) in coal-fired capacity – a figure equal to roughly 41 percent of the region’s existing capacity. More than 90 percent of the additions will come from Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia, and Ukraine, who will add 1.95, 2.85, and 8.9 GW respectively. Added electricity production is estimated at 49,902 gigawatthours (GWh). In 2013, the three countries – already net exporters – sold more than 21,260 GWh abroad.

In 2014, the EU-28 imported 380,234 GWh of electricity, up nearly 9 percent from the year before. So, if we assume all added electricity is exported – disregarding transmission and distribution losses – the Balkan/Ukrainian coal rush would account for just over 13 percent of current EU electric power imports. In terms of natural gas – and specifically gas used for electric power generation – the imports could displace approximately 14 billion cubic meters (bcm). For reference, Russia exported 146.6 bcm to Europe in 2014.

The coal build out won’t happen overnight, if at all, to the extent described above. Agreements and plans exist, but only one of the aforementioned coal-fired generation projects is currently under construction. If ambitions become reality across the board, a wave of stranded assets awaits.

Collectively known as the Energy Community, the contracting parties – the Balkans plus Ukraine and Moldova – have committed themselves to implementing relevant EU energy goals and frameworks. Put another way, it is the import of EU energy policy into non-EU countries.

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The Latest Threats To Global Energy Security

March 17, 2015

The Latest Threats To Global Energy Security

The vast global network of energy infrastructure is, for all intents and purposes, a living, breathing organism. And like other organisms, it’s full of vulnerabilities. Across all sectors and at every point in the supply chain, physical – and of course cyber – weaknesses pose serious threats to the functionality and reliability of vital energy systems.

Just how vulnerable is the global energy system? It’s a difficult question to answer. Weather-related outages in the US alone are estimated to cost between $18 billion and $33 billion annually. Direct theft of oil and gas is harder to quantify – in Nigeria it’s a $1.5 billion a month business; and in Mexico millions of barrels disappear every year. What we can do is identify some pressure points moving forward. Broadly, they can be divided into three categories: production, transportation, and distribution. In the interest of time, climate preparedness – a worthy category on its own – will be largely left for discussion another day.

Security of supply is the defining principle behind each of these categories, but perhaps more so the first two. How secure is our global supply from a production and transportation standpoint? Generally speaking, quite secure, but the grey area is large enough and sufficiently unpredictable to warrant a closer look.

Let’s begin with some of the more tangible issues facing energy transportation before turning our attention to production. Practically speaking, no method is perfect, and most present more than a handful of issues.

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Iraq Could Be Oil Market Linchpin

December 29, 2014

Iraq Could Be Oil Market Linchpin.

As hard as it may be to imagine, given today’s rock bottom oil prices and abundant supplies, the world may still struggle to bring enough oil online over the next few decades to meet long-term demand.

Global economic growth over the next several decades is predicated on continued growth in oil supplies. But meeting long-term supply needs will hinge heavily on one country in particular – Iraq.

Just two years ago, the International Energy Agency (IEA) predicted that Iraq would be able to double its oil production by the end of the decade, raising output to 6.1 million barrels per day. Even more compelling is the fact that the IEA also believes that Iraq will make up an inordinate share of global supply growth over the long term – more than U.S. shale, more than other OPEC members.

But that looks increasingly unlikely for two major reasons. First is the onslaught from ISIS, which has torn the country apart. The militant group’s advance has been halted and is slowly being rolled back, but nevertheless, the presence of violence and the lack of security are already deterring investment in new production.

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The Global Energy Security War

December 15, 2014

The Global Energy Security War.

Concerns about energy security have shot to the top of the political agenda in Europe. But the US has no intention of letting the EU down. “The United States will be working with the EU to develop a plan for the mid- to long-term evolution of a more energy-secure future”, said US Secretary of Energy Ernest Moniz at a conference of the Atlantic Council in Istanbul. At this summit, top US officials and energy experts showed themselves surprisingly positive about the progress the EU has made reducing its dependence on Russia. “A few years ago, we couldn’t have solved the Ukrainian problem. Now we can.” With US LNG exports under way, the “monumental” Southern Corridor under construction, and Gazprom’s South Stream project increasingly under pressure, Europe’s position will only get stronger. Karel Beckman reports from Istanbul.

In his opening address at the Atlantic Council’s Energy and Economic Summit 2014 in Istanbul (19-20 November), President and CEO Frederick Kempe immediately made it clear the Atlantic Council is playing for high stakes. “Europe is in the middle of an inflection point of its history”, he said. 2014 “is every bit as dramatic as 1815 – the year of Versailles”. Or, he added, 1989, the year of the fall of Communism. “The future of the international liberal order”, said Kempe, “is at stake”.

Actually, listening to many of the presentations at the Istanbul summit, the mood among the Americans recalled not so much of a specific year, as a period in history: the Cold War. Clearly for the Atlanticists – and it’s probably fair to say that the bipartisan Atlantic Council represents the conventional geopolitical look of the Washingon DC establisment – with the “resurgence” of Russia the Cold War is back all the way.

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