EU May Take Desperate Measures To Ensure Energy Security
Oft forgotten and on the periphery of the European Union, the Balkans plus Ukraine may have a plan to address the energy needs of the economic bloc. It’s coal-heavy, borderline uneconomic, and arguably counterproductive to respective national agendas, but it does aim to satisfy some particularly topical pan-European goals: greater interconnection and greater energy security, i.e. reduced dependence on Russia.
Together, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia, and Ukraine are planning to add nearly 15 gigawatts (GW) in coal-fired capacity – a figure equal to roughly 41 percent of the region’s existing capacity. More than 90 percent of the additions will come from Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia, and Ukraine, who will add 1.95, 2.85, and 8.9 GW respectively. Added electricity production is estimated at 49,902 gigawatthours (GWh). In 2013, the three countries – already net exporters – sold more than 21,260 GWh abroad.
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In 2014, the EU-28 imported 380,234 GWh of electricity, up nearly 9 percent from the year before. So, if we assume all added electricity is exported – disregarding transmission and distribution losses – the Balkan/Ukrainian coal rush would account for just over 13 percent of current EU electric power imports. In terms of natural gas – and specifically gas used for electric power generation – the imports could displace approximately 14 billion cubic meters (bcm). For reference, Russia exported 146.6 bcm to Europe in 2014.
The coal build out won’t happen overnight, if at all, to the extent described above. Agreements and plans exist, but only one of the aforementioned coal-fired generation projects is currently under construction. If ambitions become reality across the board, a wave of stranded assets awaits.
Collectively known as the Energy Community, the contracting parties – the Balkans plus Ukraine and Moldova – have committed themselves to implementing relevant EU energy goals and frameworks. Put another way, it is the import of EU energy policy into non-EU countries.
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