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Estimating life-time costs for Renewable Energy in Europe

March 30, 2016

Estimating life-time costs for Renewable Energy in Europe

Summary
  • Electricity generation by using gas-fired installations is significantly cheaper than Renewables in terms of both installation capital cost and Operation and Maintenance  costs, even when accounting for the cost of fuel.
  • The € 1.1 trillion capital costs already spent on Renewables in Europe would have been sufficient to re-equip the whole 1,000 Gigawatt European electricity generating fleet with Gas-fired power stations producing electricity for the grid effectively at ~90% capacity.
  • The European Renewable fleet with a nominal nameplate output of ~ 212 Gigawatts only contributes ~ 38 Gigawatts to the European Grid, a capacity percentage at about 18%.
  • The installation of the Renewables fleet as of 2014 has already lead to a 60 year lifetime financial commitment amounting to about €3.1 trillion:  this is equivalent to the annual GDP of Germany.
  • 60 year life-time costs of Onshore wind power range from 10 – 13 times more expensive than Gas-fired generation.
  • 60 year life-time costs of Offshore wind power and Solar power range from 40 – 50 times more expensive than Gas-fired generation.
  • during the 60 year life-time Gas-fired generators have a full-time productive capacity of about 90%  whereas the combined capacity figures for Renewable Energy of only about 18% is achieved across all European Renewable installations.
  • These notes make estimates of:
    • the likely capital expenditure over 60 years
    • the running costs including fuel costs, if applicable, over that time period
    • the likely combined 60 year costs overall
    • the ratios of Renewable financial performances compared to Gas-fired electricity generation.

Introduction

This article is concerned with the two main forms of weather-dependent Renewable Energy, Wind Power (Onshore and Offshore) and Photovoltaic solar power.

Screen Shot 2016-03-04 at 10.22.31.png

It accepts that the effective capital cost of weather-dependent Renewable installations range from 16 – 63 bn€ / Gigawatt for the electrical energy produced when their capability for productive contribution to the grid is taken into account.  This compares with the installation cost of Gas-fired electricity generation of about 1bn€ / Gigawatt, produced for the grid.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The record of recent Man-made CO2 emissions: 1965 -2014

February 8, 2016

The record of recent Man-made CO2 emissions: 1965 -2014

Summary

This post, using BP statistical review (2015) data, presents CO2 trends on an absolute and per capita basis for the main global economies.  They add in the effect of recent Chinese under-reporting of CO2 emissions.  They compare CO2 emissions / head as a representation of the level of development of national groups.  In particular China overtook the EU (28) in 2012 and France has the lowest CO2 emissions / head of the developed world.  It is even less that the whole worldwide average.

If Greens wants to save the world from CO2 emissions this data wholly vindicates the use of Nuclear power for electricity generation.  Their preference for Renewable Energy, with the closure of fossil fuel generation, may destroy the progress and benefits of western civilization.

Introduction

The following calculations and graphics are based on information on national CO2 emission levels worldwide published by BP in June 2015 for the period from 1965 up until the end of 2014.

http://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/about-bp/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy/statistical-review-downloads.html

These data and graphics have been updated in the light of the recent announcement that China has been significantly under reporting its actual CO2 emissions.

The assumption made for the additional CO2 emissions from China is calculated by assuming the emissions previously reported  by BP had increased by 17% in 2014.  Prior to that emissions are increased by 1% every year from 1998 onwards.  This may be an underestimate.

http://www.cnbc.com/2015/11/03/china-burns-much-more-coal-than-reported-complicating-climate-talks.html

These notes and figures provide a short commentary on that CO2 emissions history.

Some highlights arising from the BP data and the revisions arising from the recent announcement of under-reporting of CO2 emissions by China:

  • by 2014 CO2 emissions for the developing world were ~60% higher than those from the developed world.
  • China’s CO2 emissions / head for its population of some 1.4 billion have exceeded the average emissions/head in Europe, and China’s CO2 emissions / head was higher than most of the EU Nations except for Germany.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Olduvai IV: Courage
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Olduvai II: Exodus
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