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Delivering Tomorrow’s Curses

Roman poet Virgil penned these words in his epic, The Aeneid, roughly a generation before the birth of Jesus of Nazareth. They can be loosely translated to, “the descent to hell is easy.” Those who’ve traversed this passage can attest to the veracity of this axiom.

Virgil reading the Aeneid to Augustus, Octavia and Livia. Contrary to what one might think at first blush, Octavia didn’t fall asleep because she was bored by it – rather, when Virgil recited Book Six, she fainted (the veracity of this account is not undisputed, but it’s a good story anyway). A little side note: Virgil caught a fever while returning from to Rome from Greece and died in Brundisium in 19 BC. It was Virgil’s wish that the poem be burned, but Augustus ordered his literary executors to preserve it and publish it with as few editorial changes as possible. Thus Augustus rescued the Aeneid for posterity. [PT]

Though not apparent in the milieu of Virgil’s poem, for our purposes today, we will extend its application to the insidious progression of currency debasement. What short utterance more aptly characterizes the steady degradation, as currently practiced by today’s church of state?

On Thursday, for example, the House acted with untroubled ease to further America’s descent to hell. With little resistance, federal spending was increased and the debt ceiling was suspended for two years. Having delivered tomorrow’s curses, the nation’s Representatives can skip town without missing a moment of summer recess.

As you can see, the allure of getting something for nothing is far too enticing for even the most honest politician to pass up. And with an endless supply of fake money behind you, why stick your neck out and get clobbered? The public debt encumbered is already well beyond honest repayment. But that’s a problem for tomorrow; not today.

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Fitch Threatens To Cut US Credit Rating As Debt-Ceiling Battle Looms

January 9, 2019

Fitch Threatens To Cut US Credit Rating As Debt-Ceiling Battle Looms

In what has become a perennial exercise before every debt-ceiling showdown since at least Obama’s first term (when S&P did the unthinkable and cut the US’s coveted AAA credit rating, exposing itself to extensive abuse by Tim Geithner), ratings agencies are starting to beat the credit-rating downgrade drum, with Fitch getting a jump on the competition Wednesday when its head of sovereign ratings warned that an enduring shutdown battle could negatively impact the negotiations over the debt ceiling, which could prompt Fitch to join S&P in eliminating its AAA rating for the US.

During an interview with CNBC and a separate appearance in London (where his comments were recorded by Reuters), Fitch’s global head of sovereign ratings James McCormack warned of a possible cut to its AAA rating for the U.S. sovereign should the shutdown continue to March, noting that the shutdown and debt ceiling battle are adding to anxieties triggered by President Trump’s tax cuts and spending hikes, which have blown out the budget deficit and led to a “meaningful fiscal deterioration.”

“I think people are looking at the CBO (Congressional Budget Office) numbers. If people take the time to look at that you can see debt levels moving higher, you can see the interest burden in the U.S. government moving decidedly higher over the next decade,” James McCormack, Fitch’s global head of sovereign ratings told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Wednesday.

There needs to be some kind of fiscal adjustment to offset that or the deficit itself moves higher and you’re essentially borrowing money to pay interest on the debt. So there is a meaningful fiscal deterioration there, going on the United States.”

Watch his interview with CNBC below:

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Cowen: Shutdown Brings “More Default Risk Than The Market Realizes”

January 22, 2018

Cowen: Shutdown Brings “More Default Risk Than The Market Realizes”

Echoing almost verbatim the bleak outlook on the US government shutdown laid out by Goldman on Friday in which the bank said the government closure could last “up to a few weeks” and become dangerous once it approaches the timing of the debt ceiling, Cowen’s senior policy analyst Jaret Seiberg writes on Monday morning that the danger of an impasse that would preclude reaching a deal to raise the debt ceiling, which the government will hit in March “is a bigger worry than a government shutdown that lasts several days or a week.”

According to Seiberg – who calls Trump an “unpredictable negotiator” over spending bill – pushing the spending bill into the debt ceiling time-line may make a package “even more politically toxic,” especially since Republicans may have more objections to raising the debt ceiling than Democrats;

On the other hand, the Cowen strategist sees little impact to financials and housing from a short government shutdown, as most housing programs will function, financial system oversight remains:

Fannie, Freddie will continue to operate; Ginnie Mae will continue to ensure principal/interest payments are made to investors; FHA can continue to approve insurance for loans, but those that require staff review might get delayed; if shutdown extends into weeks there may be problems
Fed, FDIC, OCC will continue to monitor banks; SEC will furlough employees, but key systems are governed by contracts

Finally, Pantheon’s Ian Shepherdson agrees: should the government closure extend into March, then all bets are off:

In the worst case scenario, the budget impasse could drag on, via a series of stopgap measures, until March, perilously close to the point where the debt ceiling has to raised or suspended, as was the case from November 2016 through March last year.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The real story behind America’s new $20 trillion debt

September 12, 2017

The real story behind America’s new $20 trillion debt

Late yesterday afternoon the federal government of the United States announced that the national debt had finally breached the inevitable $20 trillion mark.

This was a long time coming. It should have happened back in March, except that a new debt ceiling was put in place, freezing the national debt.

For the last six months it was essentially illegal for the government to increase the debt.

This is pretty brutal for Uncle Sam. The US government hasn’t run a budget surplus in two decades; they depend on debt in order to keep everything running.

And without the ability to ‘officially’ borrow money, they’ve basically spent the last six months ‘unofficially’ borrowing money by plundering federal pension funds and resorting to what the Treasury Department itself calls “extraordinary measures” to keep the government running.

Late last week the debt ceiling crisis came to a temporary armistice as the government agreed once again to temporarily suspend the debt limit.

Overnight, the national debt soared hundreds of billions of dollars as months of ‘unofficial’ borrowing made its way on to the official books.

The national debt is now $20.1 trillion. That’s larger than the size of the entire US economy.

You’d think this would be front page news with warnings being shouted from the rooftops of America.

Yet curiously the story has scarcely been covered.

Today’s front page of the New York Times tells us about Hurricane Irma, North Korea, and alcoholism in Iran.

Even the Wall Street Journal’s front page has zero mention of this story.

In fairness, the number itself is irrelevant. $20 trillion is merely a big, round, psychologically significant number… but in reality no more important than $19.999 trillion.

The real story isn’t the number or the size of the debt itself. It’s the trend. And it’s not good.