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Revealing History

COMMENT: I find it interesting how two people the general consensus has said were scoundrels, John Law and Julius Caesar, you have shown were actually people against the establishment. I read your Anatomy of a Debt Crisis and you have put together the contemporary historians where everyone else just seems to rely on the fake news of the day.

Thank you for digging up the facts.

HY

REPLY: When I was in high school, I had to read Galbraith’s “Great Crash.” Nowhere in his book did he ever mention defaults on national debts by any country. When I came across Herbert Hoover’s memoirs in an old book store in London, this was probably the second thing that changed my life, with the first being the movie  “The Toast of New York” about the Panic of 1869 when gold hit $162.50, which I had to watch in history class. I learned not to trust the history books, and the best way to find out the truth was always to return to the contemporary reports of history and/or the newspapers of the time.

The coinage has been a major factor in identifying the history and accurately dating events. Here is an extremely rare coin of Julius Caesar. Note that there is no portrait of him. He is announcing his victory in Gaul. His Gallic campaign was initially a piecemeal affair, but within six years, he had expanded Roman rule over the whole of Gaul. Following years of relative success, mainly thanks to the disconnected nature of the tribes allowing him to take them on separately (divide and conquer), Caesar was faced with the chief of the Arverni tribe, Vercingetorix, who too late had built a confederation to stand against Caesar. In 52 BC, despite formidable resistance, Caesar finally defeated Vercingetorix at the Battle (or Siege) of Alesia…

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martin armstrong, armstrong economics, history, julius ceasar, rome, roman empire, war, conquest, coinage, fake news,

How The Investor Fundamentally Changed The Silver Market

How The Investor Fundamentally Changed The Silver Market

While silver investors continue to be discouraged about the low price, the market has experienced a fundamental change that needs to be understood.  Ever since governments removed silver from official coinage, over 50 years ago, the market has been supplemented by several billion ounces of silver.  The majority of that supply has been depleted.

The reason the United States and other countries stopped producing official silver coinage wasn’t due to any monetary conspiracy; rather it was based on a straightforward problem; supply versus demand.  Because industrial silver consumption had skyrocketed after World War 2, the silver market would have suffered deficits if the U.S. Treasury didn’t sell silver into the market.

It was quite simple; there just wasn’t enough silver to go around.  So, governments started to reduce, then eliminate silver from their coinage in the 1960’s.  A lot of this silver, known as “junk silver,” was either purchased by investors or remelted and sold back as supply into the market.  While there is no way of knowing how much of the older official junk silver remains in the market, the majority of it was recycled for much-needed supply.

We can see the dwindling down of government stocks and older official silver coinage in the following chart:

The BLUE bars represent silver scrap supply, and the OLIVE colored bars show the amount of net government silver sales.  From 2000 to 2013, governments sold 636 million oz (Moz) of silver into the market.  Net government sales were from stockpiled silver and older official coins.  However, in 2014, this supply totally dried up.  For the past four years, there haven’t been any government silver sales.

Another interesting aspect of this chart is the declining amount of silver scrap supply.  Even though the price of silver during the 2015-2017 period was much higher than from 2000-2007, scrap supply is considerably less.

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First Sovereign Debt Default 4th Century BC

First Sovereign Debt Default 4th Century BC

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; I read this time its different by Rogoff. While it is interesting about sovereign defaults, he clearly does not go back into ancient times or more than a few hundred years. If anyone would know when the first such default took place it must be you. Any idea?

ANSWER: Yes. The first such default that is definitively recorded took place at least in the 4th century B.C., when ten out of thirteen Greek municipalities in the Attic Maritime Association defaulted on loans from the Delos Temple of Apollo.

Athens-Emergency

You must understand that historically, most fiscal crises were resolved through either war where the loser’s debt evaporates as Germany after WWI or the Confederate States in USA as two examples, or by currency debasement by either inflation or devaluation. This is demonstrated by numerous city debasements or reduction in weight of gold and silver coinage. One of the earliest debasements was during 404BC in Athens in the war with Sparta. The silver coinage was reduced to bronze and silver plated.

Lydia-Debasement

Lydia, which is where coins were invented, reduced the weight of their Stater due to war with the Persians, Cyrus the Great. This is how money supply still increased even if it was gold or silver. It never matters what is money, economic forces always conspire to create the natural course of inflation (assets rise and money declines). There is a cycle as we are going through right now of the opposite trend deflation because no single trend can be sustained without change. Hold your arm straight up above your head. Now keep it there. You will run out of energy and your arm will feel tremendously heavy causing you to put it back down. Everything works that way yet people try to deny cycles. Nothing but nothing can be sustained without change – N O T H I N G!

Byzantine-Debasement

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Olduvai IV: Courage
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Olduvai II: Exodus
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