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Have tipping points already been passed for critical climate systems? (5) Coral Reefs: A death spiral

Have tipping points already been passed for critical climate systems? (5) Coral Reefs: A death spiral Great Barrier Reef bleaching 2016 Ecosystems, including coral reefs, mangroves and kelp forests in Australia, are degrading fast as the world’s sixth mass extinction gathers pace.Coral polyps are invertebrates similar to minute jellyfish, which build limestone structures, and live […]

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What roles for markets and for the state when climate risk is existential?

What roles for markets and for the state when climate risk is existential? Climate system tipping points. From Climate Reality Check 2020 This blog is based on a paper given to the University of Hamburg’s “Unsustainable Past – Sustainable Futures?” conference on 12 February 2021.  A video of the presentation is available. In his foreword to our 2018 Breakthrough […]

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Zero by 2050 or 2030? 1.5°C or 2°C? Overshoot or not? Demystifying carbon budgets.

Zero by 2050 or 2030? 1.5°C or 2°C? Overshoot or not? Demystifying carbon budgets. Confused about carbon budgets for the Paris climate  goals? Zero by 2050 or 2030? 1.5°C or 2°C? Overshoot or not? There is a maze of contradictory positions,  claiming to be based on research evidence. But the assumptions behind much of that […]

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New research on forests and oceans suggest projections of future warming may be too conservative, with serious consequences

New research on forests and oceans suggest projections of future warming may be too conservative, with serious consequences How much will the world warm with ongoing fossil-fuel carbon emissions? It’s a big question that preoccupies policymakers and activists, with important discussions about when the world will hit two degrees, are we really on a path […]

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As warming approaches 1.5°C, talk of a carbon budget for the Paris targets is delusional

As warming approaches 1.5°C, talk of a carbon budget for the Paris targets is delusional There’s a lot of delusional talk about how much “carbon budget” (or new emissions) are allowable that would still keep global heating to the Paris target of 1.5 degrees Celsius (°C). The reality is that over the last year, global […]

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How to communicate the climate emergency

How to communicate the climate emergency Download guide as PDF What are effective ways of engaging people in conversation about the gathering climate crisis and the need for an emergency response? Let’s start with some key content: 1. Urgency and courage   
  The Earth is already too hot: we are in danger now, not just […]

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When we look at the crisis rationally, the only logical response is to declare a climate emergency

When we look at the crisis rationally, the only logical response is to declare a climate emergency Participants in this week’s Darebin Climate Emergency conference in Melboure. Photo: John Englart People engaged in the climate debate are often bewildered by society’s lack of response. How can we ignore such overwhelming evidence of an existential threat […]

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Our energy challenge in 6 eye-popping charts

Our energy challenge in 6 eye-popping charts Renewable energy is winning and coal is on the skids. Disruption of the fossil fuel industry is well under way, and the global energy system is being decarbonised. We’re right on track, right? To avoid dramatic climate system tipping points, the world needs to decarbonise very quickly and […]

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What goes up must come down: It’s time for a carbon drawdown budget

What goes up must come down: It’s time for a carbon drawdown budget There is no carbon budget left for 1.5°C climate warming target, which means that to achieve this outcome every tonne of emissions must be matched by a tonne of drawdown of atmospheric carbon from now on. For that reason, carbon budgets and […]

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1.5°C of warming is closer than we imagine, just a decade away

1.5°C of warming is closer than we imagine, just a decade away Global warming of 1.5°C is imminent, likely in just a decade from now. That’s the stunning conclusion to be drawn from a number of recent studies, surveyed below. Paris Commitments now put the world on a path of 3.4°C of warming by 2100 […]

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Quantifying our Faustian bargain with fossil fuels 

Quantifying our Faustian bargain with fossil fuels  Our Faustian bargain: the byproduct of burning dirty fossil fuels are short-lived atmospheric aerosols which provide temporary cooling The climate system will heat well past 1.5 degrees Celsius (°C) and perhaps up to 2°C without any further fossil fuel emissions. That’s the conclusion to be drawn from new […]

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New study on climate sensitivity not what poor media headlines, deniers are saying

New study on climate sensitivity not what poor media headlines, deniers are saying Courtesy Skeptical Science One swallow doesn’t make a spring, and nor does one scientific paper change a whole body of evidence. But you could be mistaken for thinking so after the poor media coverage last week of a new piece of climate […]

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What we learned about the climate system in 2017 that should send shivers down the spines of policy makers 

What we learned about the climate system in 2017 that should send shivers down the spines of policy makers  Much of what happened in 2017 was predictable: news of climate extremes became, how can I put it … almost the norm. There was record-breaking heat on several continents, California’s biggest wildfire (extraordinarily in the middle […]

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After the encyclical, lessons for climate activism?

After the encyclical, lessons for climate activism? Note: This blog is based on and extends a short presentation at aLighter Footprints climate action group monthly meeting in Melbourne on 24 June. Washington Post advertisement When I first heard early this year about the forthcoming papal encyclical on nature and climate change, my first reaction was that this […]

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Olduvai IV: Courage
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Olduvai II: Exodus
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