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Heat Wave!

April 15, 2021

Heat Wave!

 Find your sunglasses.  Stock up on sunscreen.  And get your shorts and tee shirts out.  You will need them.   A Northwest spring heatwave is about to begin.  

The start to spring has been chilly and damp, but that will be a distant memory by this week.   Consider the latest ensemble forecast (running the model many times, each a bit different) for the NOAA/NWS GFS forecast system (see below). Steadily rising temperatures from the low 60s today to the mid-70s on Saturday and Sunday.

The ensemble members are all very similar, which means we should have confidence in the prediction.

I know your next question.  What about the highly skillful European Center forecasts?  Here they are (below).  Highs of 74 and 73 on Saturday and Sunday, followed by a cool down next week.
What do we owe this turn to torrid conditions? 
A very high amplitude upper-level ridge of high pressure over the eastern Pacific.   The forecast of upper-level (500 hPa, around 18,000 ft) conditions at 5 PM Wednesday, shows the upper-level ridge extended into BC, with troughs (the L’s) on both sides.  This is known as an OMEGA block, because it looks like the Greek letter omega.  Very persistent.
And by Friday afternoon the ridge of high pressure amplifies right over us.  Such high-pressure areas are associated with sinking air (therefore cloud-free) and warming conditions aloft.  At the same time, there is easterly or offshore flow at low levels, which isolates us from the cool Pacific Ocean.
To really warm you up, let me show you the predicted air temperatures just above the surface (2-meters).
The forecast for Wednesday at 5 PM, shows temperatures rising into the mid-60s on both sides of the Cascades, with moderate northerly and northeasterly winds
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Arctic Express Coming to the Northwest

September 27, 2019

Arctic Express Coming to the Northwest

If you live in western Washington, you might want to check that your heating system still works.

If you live in eastern Washington on the slopes of the Cascades, you might want to make sure you have a snow shovel.

If you live in western Montana, you might want to get your chains ready and stock up on food.

An unusually early and intense Arctic express will hit the region this weekend.  And our days of Blob warmth will be over for a while.

Let me start by showing you a stunning image from the NOAA/NWS Climate Prediction Center (CPC)–their 6-10 day forecast for temperature.  Specifically, it gives the probabilities of below normal (blue) and above normal (red) temperatures. 

Wow— my colleagues in NOAA are quite sure that below-normal temperature will reign along the entire West Coast as well as the northern Plains States.

The action starts late Friday.

A huge upper level ridge develops in the Pacific, resulting in northerly flow over the western U.S., with a strong trough of low pressure/heights moving into the Pacific Northwest (see upper level– 500 hPa map for 5 PM Friday below).  This pattern will not only bring Arctic air south over the Northwest but will isolate the Northwest from the warming impacts of the Blob (the region of warm water over the northeast Pacific).   As a result, western Washington will experience much colder minimum temperatures than observed during the past few months.

Now the details.  Here is a forecast map for 8 AM Saturday, showing sea level pressure (solid lines), lower atmosphere temperatures (color shading) and surface winds.  There is an intense pressure change (gradient) near the international border, with cold temperatures behind—this is commonly called the Arctic Front.   Low pressure, associated with the upper level trough, is centered over SE Washington.

 …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Is Global Warming an Existential Threat? Probably Not, But Still a Serious Issue.

August 13, 2019

Is Global Warming an Existential Threat? Probably Not, But Still a Serious Issue.

During the recent presidential debate, a number of candidates suggested that global warming represents an existential threat to mankind, and thus requires dramatic and immediate action.

Governor Jay Inslee has been particularly generous in the use of this term, but he is not alone.  Kamala Harris, Cory Booker, Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren have said the same thing, as have several media outlets and environmental interest groups.

Some of these folks also claim that the window for action on climate change is closing–Jay Inslee suggests that the next president will be the last able to take effective steps.  Others suggest 10 or 12 years.

But are these existential threat claims true?  That is what we will examine in this blog.
An existential threat is one that threatens the very existence of mankind.    Something that is a simply a challenge or an inconvenience is not an existential threat. An existential threat must have the potential to undermine the very viability of human civilization.

As described below, global warming is a serious problem and its impacts will be substantial—but in no way does it seriously threaten our species or human civilization.  And with reasonable mitigation and adaptation,  mankind will continue to move forward—reducing poverty, living healthier lives, and stabilizing our population.

What do current climate models tell us?  These models are run under specific scenarios of emission of CO2 and other greenhouse gases (see figure).   In one, RCP8.5, we simply continue doing what we are doing, with escalating use of coal and oil.  Not much renewable energy.    Many believe this scenario is too pessimistic.  Much more reasonable is RCP 4.5, which has modestly increased emissions through 2040, declining after 2050.  I suspect this one will be closer to reality.

 …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Air Quality Health Crisis from the California Wildfires

November 17, 2018

The Air Quality Health Crisis from the California Wildfires

The smoke from the California wildfires near Paradise, CA is producing the greatest air quality health crisis in the modern history of California.   Schools, universities, and sports events are being cancelled.
Although the terrible loss of life directly caused by wildfires in and near Paradise should not be minimized in any way, the health impacts of smoke will be profound, with millions of people being exposed to high concentrations of wood smoke.  Hospitalizations will surely increase and some increase mortality of vulnerable populations should be expected.

MODIS satellite imagery on Thursday at noon.  Dense smoke filled the central valley of CA and moved directly over the Bay Area.

For me, it is also personal.  My son, a healthy young man of 28 living in San Francisco, is greatly feeling that smoke as is his similarly aged co-workers and friends.  If young, healthy individuals are being sickened, can you image the impacts of those that are vulnerable?

The current air quality conditions around the Bay area are pretty extreme (see below), with much of San Francisco and neighboring areas in the very unhealthy range (200-300).   Looking at data around the world, it appears that San Francisco now has worse air quality than any major metropolitan area in the world, worse than even Beijing and Mumbai.

But what really stands out is the longevity of this poor air quality event– extending 7-9 days now for many central CA locations.    From my perusal of the air quality data of the Bay Area Air Quality Agency and other sources, this event is unprecedented in the 20 year period of data available.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Is Global Warming A Significant Contributor to Washington State Wildfires, Now or in the Future?

October 5, 2018

Is Global Warming A Significant Contributor to Washington State Wildfires, Now or in the Future?

During the past several summers there have been major wildfires in Washington State producing a lot of smoke.  And many people have been asking an important question:
To what degree is anthropogenic global warming contributing to Washington State wildfires?

 
If 90% of the blame for Northwest wildfires is due to anthropogenic (human-caused) global warming and 10% is due to fire suppression, poor forest management, or people starting more fires, then the logical response is to put most of  our efforts into reducing atmospheric CO2.   A climate-dominated problem.

If 90% of the blame is due to past fire suppression, forest mismanagement, invasive species, and human encroachment, then we should put most of our efforts into fixing the forests and other non-climate measures. A surface-management problem.

And yes, the percentages could be somewhere in between.

Supporters of the carbon fee initiative (1631) are suggesting that the recent wildfires are mainly the result of anthropogenic climate change and using the fires to push their carbon fee plan.

And Governor Inslee has stated explicitly that the fires have been made much worse by climate change.

In contrast, others, including a number of folks in the forestry community, have suggested that poor forest practices are the main cause of most of the wildfires over the eastern side of the state.

It is important to note that relative role of global warming in influencing the threat of wildfires may change in time.  For example, global warming could be relatively unimportant today for wildfires, but of great importance later in the century when temperatures will be much warmer.

The Need for Better Information

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Olduvai IV: Courage
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Olduvai II: Exodus
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