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What? Default? Where? Dollar?
What? Default? Where? Dollar?
It won’t come as a surprise to anyone that the first half of 2020 has brought, among many other things, renewed calls for the demise of the US dollar. It’s been pretty much a non-stop call for over a decade now, and longer. But this time, like all previous ones, I’m thinking: I don’t see it. I guess my first question is always: please explain why the dollar would collapse before the euro does.
For one thing, the dollar would have to collapse/default against one or more “entities”. The dollar is not like one of those highrises that collapse upon themselves. It will have to default or collapse against something(s) else. Since it is the world reserve currency, that means there would have to be a replacement reserve currency. Yes, that could also be for example gold or SDR’s, or even a basket of currencies, and something like that may happen eventually, but it doesn’t appear in the cards in the short run.
There are really only two candidates for the role, and neither looks at all fit to play it. The euro may have some ambitions in that direction, but it has far too many problems still. The yuan/renminbi certainly has such ambitions, but the Communist party refuses to let it get on stage to show what it’s got. As I recently wrote:
The main sticking point for Beijing is a conundrum it cannot solve. The CCP wants to have BOTH a global currency AND total control over that currency. It will have to choose between the two, and cannot make up its mind. So it pretends it doesn’t have to choose.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
How to Squash this Stealthy Attack On Your Wealth
How to Squash this Stealthy Attack On Your Wealth
You’re losing the war against your wealth.
In 1935, the official price of one gold ounce was $20.67. Today it’s around $1,770.
Price of gold 1935 vs. 2020
What happened?
The ounce of gold didn’t change. One troy ounce of gold still weighs one troy ounce.
One ounce in 1935 is still one ounce in 2020
What changed is the number of dollars it takes to buy one gold ounce. That stack on the left might look big compared to the paltry $20.67 on the right. It’s going to get a lot bigger.
The chart below shows the price of gold going back to early last century. The tiny blip in 1935 was a 69% increase in price at the time. It’s barely noticeable today.
Likewise, a $100 move in the price of gold will someday look like a tiny blip. Don’t let an endless stream of media panics distract you from what’s really going on. That stack of dollars can grow infinitely.
As the stack of cash grows, gold stays the same. Double the number of dollars needed to buy an ounce of gold and the ounce stays the same. It’s the dollar that’s worth less.
Consider this. $1,000 was a lot of money in the early 1900s. If an ancestor of yours had put $1,000 worth of cash away for you, today, it would barely pay for one month of rent at a downmarket apartment. Back then, it was a large sum of money.
However, if your ancestor had put $1,000 worth of gold into an envelope for you, it’s worth more than $80,000 today.
There’s a war against your wealth. The dollars you use to measure the wealth haven’t held up over time. Gold has.
With the U.S. government set to run a record deficit of $3.7 trillion in 2020, according its own CBO (Congressional Budget Office), it may soon take even more dollars to buy the one gold ounce.
Citibank Joins Mainstream Gold Bulls Forecasting Record Prices
Citibank Joins Mainstream Gold Bulls Forecasting Record Prices
Citibank has joined other mainstream gold bulls calling for record gold prices.
Citi raised its gold price forecast this week. It now projects a three-month price of $1,825 per ounce and for the yellow metal to head into record territory in 2021. Citi analysts expect gold to eclipse the $2,000 mark early next year.
Citibank joins several other mainstream players that now project record gold prices in the coming months. Last week, we reported Goldman Sachs now forecasts record gold prices within the next 12 months and Bank of America released a note saying gold could break its US dollar record by the end of the year if it continues to breach key resistance levels.
Meanwhile, SGMC Capital Founder & CEO Massimiliano Bondurri told Bloomberg he thinks gold may hit close to $2,000 by the end of this year and could rally further due to dollar weakness.
It can rally much, much further than here, for a number of reasons. First of all, we expect dollar depreciation to continue, so that’s likely to benefit gold.”
And Edison Investment Research is even more bullish, saying gold has the potential to go as high as $3,000.
Gold has been on a strong run over the last couple of weeks as the number of coronavirus cases has surged. Bullion is up better than 12% in this quarter.
Safe-haven demand has given gold a boost, but the big driver is the Federal Reserve and its unprecedented money printing. As US Global CEO Frank Holmes recently pointed out, there is a strong correlation between the expansion of the central bank’s balance sheet and the price of gold. We’ve already seen the balance sheet balloon by over $3 trillion in response to the coronavirus pandemic and it currently stands at over $7 trillion. Holmes said he thinks the central bank will likely grow its balance sheet to $10 trillion before all is said and done. If history is any teacher, that could mean $4,000 gold.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
An Excellent Seasonal Buying Opportunity in Silver Lies Directly Ahead
An Excellent Seasonal Buying Opportunity in Silver Lies Directly Ahead
Gold’s Little Brother
Today I want to put a popular precious metal under the magnifying glass for you: silver.
Silver, often referred to as the “little brother” of gold, has a particularly interesting seasonal pattern I would like to share with you.
Shiny large good delivery door stops made of silver – about to enter interesting seasonal phase. [PT]
Silver’s seasonality under the magnifying glass
Take a look at the seasonal chart of silver. In contrast to a standard price chart, the seasonal chart shows the average pattern of silver in the course of a calendar year. For this purpose, an average was calculated from the price patterns of the past 52 years. The horizontal axis shows the time of the year, the vertical axis depicts price information.
Silver price in USD per troy ounce, seasonal pattern over the past 52 years – Silver starts to rise at the end of June
Source: Seasonax
As the chart illustrates, there are two favorable seasonal phases in silver. The first one begins in mid December (i.e., on the right hand side of the chart) and lasts until February (due to the turn of the year on the left hand side of the chart; arrow to the left).
The second one starts at the end of June and lasts until the end of September (arrow to the right).
In addition I have highlighted the beginning of this second phase with a circle.
The silver price rose in 31 of 52 cases!
The imminent strong seasonal period in silver begins on 28 June and ends on 21 September. A positive performance was recorded in 31 of the 52 cases under review.
During this phase silver generated an average gain of 4.87 percent, which corresponds to an annualized return of 22.71 percent.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Big Banks Report Their Ultra-Wealthy Clients Are Rushing Into Gold
Big Banks Report Their Ultra-Wealthy Clients Are Rushing Into Gold
This week, Your News to Know rounds up the latest top stories involving gold and the overall economy. Stories include: The ultra-wealthy aren’t sold on the stock market recovery, Powell’s dovishness boosts gold prices, and Goldman rolls out yet another optimistic forecast for gold.
Big banks are moving their clients’ assets into gold as the stock market soars
Reuters recently spoke to representatives of nine big banks, which manage around $6 trillion of wealth for the world’s ultra-rich. And, in stark contrast to the action in the stock market, gold appears to be the asset of choice for both money managers and the clients themselves.
Of the banks that provided a forecast for gold prices, all four are calling for higher prices by the end of the year. Additionally, all nine have recommended and adjusted to a portfolio allocation of up to 10%. The respondents cited gold’s ability to shield investors against both inflation and deflation, as well as a variety of other downturns, as the main reason for rebalancing. As Lisa Shalett, Chief Investment Officer of Wealth Management at Morgan Stanley noted, the bank’s clients hardly needed convincing, sharing that Morgan Stanley’s wealthy clients, with decades of experience in investment, were particularly keen to hedge their bets with gold.
Representatives of UBS, Wells Fargo Investment Institute and JPMorgan Private Bank’s United Kingdom and Ireland branch likewise stated that client interest in the metal has increased exponentially over the past few months. Andre Portelli, co-head of investments at Barclays Private Bank, pointed out that the supply glut caused by the pandemic made his bank’s clients favor bullion over other options.
In terms of forecasts, JPMorgan’s Oliver Gregson sees $1,750 as a likely target for gold by the end of the year. UBS is slightly more bullish on the metal with a year-end target of $1,800, adding that a return of coronavirus-related issues could bring the metal to $2,000.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
U.S. Debt Has No Meaning Anymore (Until It Eventually Does)
U.S. Debt Has No Meaning Anymore (Until It Eventually Does)
Photo by Wikimedia.org | CC BY | Photoshopped
The national debt currently looks like a runaway freight train. Not only is it clocking in at $26.1 trillion at the moment, but it has made the jump of the last few trillion dollars fast.
Really fast.
Wolf Richter summarizes the frenzied ascent in a recent article, appropriately calling it “debt out the wazoo”:
Trillions are now whooshing by at a breath-taking pace. The US gross national debt – the total of all Treasury securities outstanding – jumped by $1 trillion over the past five weeks, from May 4 through June 8, and by $2.5 trillion for the 11 weeks since March 23.
The debt, which had been growing by as much as $1 trillion per year since 2012, suddenly increased 2.5 times as much in a span of only 11 weeks. (See graph below for the spike.)
This dramatic increase comes along with a 5% increase in business debt and a staggering 29% increase in commercial loan debt – but we’ll set that aside for another article.
When you stop and think about how much of an anchor that $26 trillion in debt could represent for the U.S. economy if anything more goes sideways, it’s mind-boggling.
Byron King from Agora Financial sums up the state of the insanity…
“That $26 Trillion of Debt is Utterly Unpayable”
When the average person incurs debt, they pay the debt back plus a certain rate of interest.
Byron King thinks the U.S. is at the point “where even paying interest will be problematic.” Assuming this is true, at minimum, the U.S. could get stuck in a perpetual state of paying just the interest on its mountain of debt.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Gold Is Security in a Dollar Crisis
Gold Is Security in a Dollar Crisis
Last week, we reported Yale economist Stephen Roach’s warning that “the era of the US dollar’s ‘exorbitant privilege’ as the world’s primary reserve currency is coming to an end.”
Roach isn’t the only person in the mainstream sounding the alarm about the dollar’s demise. In a note published last week, Guggenheim Investments Chief Investment Officer Scott Minerd said that while “there are no signs the world is questioning the value of the US dollar” right now, it’s clear that the greenback is “slowly losing market share as the world’s reserve currency.”
And he said buying gold is the key to offsetting the dollar’s decline.
With the Fed going all-in on financing the government deficit, the US dollar could be at risk to negative speculation of its status as the dominant global reserve currency. Investing in gold may help offset this trend.”
Even before the coronavirus pandemic, Peter Shiff was warning about a looming dollar crisis. During an interview on RT last September, he warned that America’s “fiscal profligacy” was going to sink the dollar.
What has enabled this over the years has been the world’s willingness to hold US dollars as the primary reserve currency and to continue to loan money to Americans and to the US government so we can continue to live beyond our means. We can have enormous government programs that we don’t pay for and we can consume all kinds of goods that we don’t manufacture, and we can live in an economy based on consumption and debt without having to save or produce. The world has done that for us. And I think this is what’s going to come to an end. I think we’re going to see a collapse in the value of the dollar, and when the dollar does collapse, America’s power is going to dissipate.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Are Bonds and Gold Telling Us Inflation Is Coming?
Are Bonds and Gold Telling Us Inflation Is Coming?
Stocks continue to ignore 40 million unemployed, an economic depression, and societal collapse/ riots.
The S&P 500 rallied yesterday to test major resistance at 3,100. The market is nearing the point of its rising wedge. A big move is coming.
The VIX is also warning us that a big move is coming. It too is at the point of its wedge formation.
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Meanwhile, the 5-year, 30-year yield curve has steepened to levels not seen since 2017. Is this predicting an economic boom or raging inflation?
Gold suggests it’s the latter. The precious metal is going vertical against every major currency: dollars, euros, yen and francs.
In Gold We Trust, 2020 – The Dawning of a Golden Decade
In Gold We Trust, 2020 – The Dawning of a Golden Decade
The New In Gold We Trust Report is Here!
The In Gold We Trust 2020 report by our good friends Ronald Stoeferle and Mark Valek was released last week. It is the biggest and most comprehensive gold research report in the world. As always it contains a wealth of new material, as well as the traditional wide-ranging collection of charts and data that makes it such a valuable reference work for everything of interest to gold investors or indeed for anyone interested in precious metals (a download link to the report is provided below).
Left: casting gold bars. Right: using gold as a shield against assorted slings and arrows.
Here is a brief overview of the main subjects discussed in the report:
– A review of the most important events in the gold market in recent months
– An analysis of the impact of the Covid-19 crisis on the price of gold
– The increasing importance of gold in times of de-dollarization
– Silver – ready to fly high?
– Gold and cryptocurrencies
– Gold mining stocks: The bull market has started
– Outlook for the gold price development in this decade: A gold price of around USD 4,800 suggested by our quantitative model, even with a conservative calibration of the parameters.
As an aside, yours truly has also contributed a brief chapter to this year’s report, namely the chapter on capital consumption starting on page 192.
As this year’s IGWT report is published, gold has finally clearly reentered a bull market. Of course, with hindsight it is obvious that a bull market was underway ever since the mid-cycle correction ended in late 2015, but it was initially a very labored, halting affair, a “stealth” bull market if you will. And while gold may not yet be at a new all time high in US dollar terms, it has reached new highs in numerous other major currencies:
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
In Gold We Trust, 2020 – The Dawning of a Golden Decade
In Gold We Trust, 2020 – The Dawning of a Golden Decade
The New In Gold We Trust Report is Here!
The In Gold We Trust 2020 report by our good friends Ronald Stoeferle and Mark Valek was released last week. It is the biggest and most comprehensive gold research report in the world. As always it contains a wealth of new material, as well as the traditional wide-ranging collection of charts and data that makes it such a valuable reference work for everything of interest to gold investors or indeed for anyone interested in precious metals (a download link to the report is provided below).
Left: casting gold bars. Right: using gold as a shield against assorted slings and arrows.
Here is a brief overview of the main subjects discussed in the report:
– A review of the most important events in the gold market in recent months
– An analysis of the impact of the Covid-19 crisis on the price of gold
– The increasing importance of gold in times of de-dollarization
– Silver – ready to fly high?
– Gold and cryptocurrencies
– Gold mining stocks: The bull market has started
– Outlook for the gold price development in this decade: A gold price of around USD 4,800 suggested by our quantitative model, even with a conservative calibration of the parameters.
As an aside, yours truly has also contributed a brief chapter to this year’s report, namely the chapter on capital consumption starting on page 192.
As this year’s IGWT report is published, gold has finally clearly reentered a bull market. Of course, with hindsight it is obvious that a bull market was underway ever since the mid-cycle correction ended in late 2015, but it was initially a very labored, halting affair, a “stealth” bull market if you will. And while gold may not yet be at a new all time high in US dollar terms, it has reached new highs in numerous other major currencies:
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
“The Largest Ever Physical Transfer Of Gold”
“The Largest Ever Physical Transfer Of Gold”
Two months ago, when the market was in a state of near-total chaos as a result of a sudden collapse in global supply chains due to the hasty coronavirus lockdowns, one market that saw unprecedented turmoil was that of physical gold.
As we pointed out in late March, due to a sudden breakdown in physical gold supply as the world’s top gold refiners, those located in the southern Swiss town of Ticino, namely Valcambi, Pamp and Argor-Heraeus, suddenly stopped producing gold, the result was a record divergence in the price of spot gold vs gold futures contracts…
… with gold futures decoupling and trading far above spot prices.
The resulting record divergence in gold futures vs spot (in some way analogous to what happened to the price of the prompt WTI contract in April, when the May WTI contract traded as low as ($40) as traders were willing to pay buyers to store oil in a world where there was suddenly no space for the physical commodity), unleashed a flood of physical gold into the US as a record scramble by traders rushing to take advantage of this arbitrage opportunity by shipping bullion to New York sparked what Bloomberg said “may be one of the largest ever physical transfers of the metal.“
“The flows into New York are unprecedented,” Allan Finn, the global commodities director at logistics and security provider Malca-Amit told Bloomberg as his company’s teams in New York have been working 24 hours a day to cope with unprecedented demand for physical gold while navigating lockdowns, flight disruptions and social distancing.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Land of the “Free”: Stashing Gold May be Illegal Soon
LAND OF THE “FREE”: STASHING GOLD MAY BE ILLEGAL SOON
According to one hedge-fund manager, known for his “doom and gloom” economic outlooks, the federal government may soon make stashing gold away illegal for individuals. Crispen Odey believes that governments will ban the possession of gold if they lose control of inflation of their fiat currency.
Odey says that gold is a great way to protect your wealth from the inflation that central banks won’t be able to control as they continue to print money. “History is filled with examples where rulers have, in moments of crisis, resorted to debasing the coinage,” said Odey, who has raised his gold position in his flagship Odey European fund all the way up to 39.9% as of the beginning of the month from 15.9% at the end of March.
“It is no surprise that people are buying gold. But the authorities may attempt at some point to de-monetize gold, making it illegal to own as a private individual. They will only do this if they feel the need to create a stable unit of account for world trade,” he added according to a report by Market Watch.
Bloomberg News said that the fear of government confiscation of gold is often discussed among serious gold bugs. It happened in the U.S. in 1933. But with major currencies no longer linked to gold, there are no signs such a move is realistically being considered by central banks. However, Bloomberg News is a mainstream media outlet and will say what the powers-that-shouldn’t-be tell them to, so take their opinion with a grain of salt.
With far too many Americans believing the government has the right to confiscate their wealth, it wouldn’t come as a surprise if they attempted this kind of theft. Not enough Americans even question the morality of taxation, let alone confiscation of their morally acquired property.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
U.S. MINT GOLD COIN SALES ALREADY DOUBLE vs. 2019: Best BUY PRICES For Gold Eagle & Buffalo Update
U.S. MINT GOLD COIN SALES ALREADY DOUBLE vs. 2019: Best BUY PRICES For Gold Eagle & Buffalo Update
Sales of the U.S. Mint Gold Eagle and Buffalo coins are already double what they were for full-year 2019. And, with the Fed and central banks continuing to print money hand-over-fist, I doubt the demand for gold coins will diminish anytime soon.
Interestingly, sales for precious metals bullion retail products, according to Dan at Cloud Hard Assets, are running about 60% for gold and 40% for silver (total value, not ounces). Investors would be buying more silver, but due to the backlog and shortage of retail silver bullion products, individuals are being forced to buy more gold.
According to the U.S. Mint’s most recent update, sales of 2020 Gold Eagles totaled 332,000 oz compared to only 152,000 oz for 2019. Furthermore, Gold Buffalo coin sales have reached 117,500 oz versus only 61,500 for 2019. Again, we are only five months into 2020, so it will be interesting to see what demand for these U.S. Gold coins will be for the remainder of the year.
Investors looking to acquire Gold Eagles and Buffalos are still paying high premiums. In comparing the premiums for 2020 Gold Eagles and Buffalos, the best value that I could find from the leading online dealers is about 8%. However, the Gold Buffalo coin premiums were even higher.
Here is an update on the BEST BUY PRICES for 2020 Gold Eagles and Buffalos from the leading online dealers’ vs. CLOUD HARD ASSETS (Prices below based on $1,745+ gold spot price early Thursday):
As you can see, it’s important to compare the prices of gold bullion products (and services). Moreover, I am putting together a spreadsheet comparing the top online dealers’ Silver Eagle premiums vs. CLOUD HARD ASSETS. Today, the top online dealers 2020 Silver Eagle premiums are running about 59% of the current spot price vs. 39% for CLOUD HARD ASSETS. Again, it’s wise to compare prices and services at the different precious metals dealers.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Fed Chair Just Made This Inadvertent Case for Gold
Fed Chair Just Made This Inadvertent Case for Gold
This week, Your News to Know rounds up the latest top stories involving gold and the overall economy. Stories include: Powell boosts gold in Fed speech, why gold is the best bet to make now, and gold remains undervalued as an asset.
Fed Chair Powell gives a nudge to gold during speech
A much-awaited speech by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell last week, held at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, dispelled any notion that the central bank is optimistic in regards to an economic recovery. In fact, Powell was very clear in his belief that many could be disappointed by the sluggishness of the recovery and the various uncertainties that might be scattered across its path.
Powell commented on the state of U.S. employment, noting that more than 20 million people have lost their jobs in just two months. The chair added that existing growth problems have been exacerbated and that any job gains posted over the previous decade have been erased.
Looking forward, Powell said that the Fed isn’t open to negative interest rates right now, but did not completely discount the possibility should the need arise. Although it remains historically low-performing, this now makes U.S. Treasuries one of the few sovereign bonds that haven’t dipped into negative territory.
Having just printed trillions of dollars in short order to stimulate the economy, Powell appeared to not be fully content with the extent of the stimulus that the state has issued. Although Congress has already spent $2.9 trillion on coronavirus mitigation, Powell’s words could be interpreted that a bigger debt bubble is on the way, keeping in mind that the federal budget alone went from being $160 billion in the green as of April 2019 to a deficit of $737.9 billion a year later.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
HSBC Lost $200 Million In One Day When The Gold Market Broke
HSBC Lost $200 Million In One Day When The Gold Market Broke
Last week, we discovered precisely which bank got hammered by the violent divergence between the spot and future price of gold. As we reported, “HSBC had 15 “back-testing exceptions” in January and March, when the firm was caught out by moves in the prices of precious metals. Europe’s biggest bank said … problems were caused in part by “delivery disruptions in the gold market” which means that we now know which bank was on the other side of the gold spot-future trade.”
Today we also learned just how much these unexpected moves cost Europe’s largest bank: according to Bloomberg, HSBC lost around $200 million in one day in March because of the previously discussed disruptions to the gold market that caused prices to diverge dramatically in key trading hubs.
The one-day loss, which far exceeded the maximum loss anticipated by HSBC’s value-at-risk models, was unusually large for a market in which the leading banks – HSBC and JPMorgan – typically make around $200 million in an entire year. In other words, in one day, HSBC lost an entire year’s worth of revenue.
HSBC’s loss highlights the extreme nature of the disruption to the gold market in late March, as lockdowns closed refineries and grounded planes, strangling the supply routes that allow physical gold to move around the globe. As we discussed at the time, the price of gold futures in New York and spot gold in London, which usually trade within a few dollars an ounce of one another, diverged by as much as $70, the most on record.
