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Deflationary Collapse Ahead?
Deflationary Collapse Ahead? Both the stock market and oil prices have been plunging. Is this “just another cycle,” or is it something much worse? I think it is something much worse. Back in January, I wrote a post called Oil and the Economy: Where are We Headed in 2015-16? In it, I said that persistent very low prices […]
How Economic Growth Fails
How Economic Growth Fails We all know generally how today’s economy works: Our economy is a networked system. I have illustrated it as being similar to a child’s building toy. Ever-larger structures can be built by adding more businesses and consumers, and by using resources of various kinds to produce an increasing quantity of goods and […]
Nine Reasons Why Low Oil Prices May “Morph” Into Something Much Worse
Nine Reasons Why Low Oil Prices May “Morph” Into Something Much Worse Why are commodity prices, including oil prices, lagging? Ultimately, it comes back to the question, “Why isn’t the world economy making very many of the end products that use these commodities?” If workers were getting rich enough to buy new homes and cars, demand for […]
What Greece, Cyprus, and Puerto Rico Have in Common
What Greece, Cyprus, and Puerto Rico Have in Common We all know one thing that Greece, Cyprus, and Puerto Rico have in common–severe financial problems. There is something else that they have in common–a high proportion of their energy use is from oil. Figure 1 shows the ratio of oil use to energy use for selected […]
BP Data Suggests We Are Reaching Peak Energy Demand
BP Data Suggests We Are Reaching Peak Energy Demand Some people talk about peak energy (or oil) supply. They expect high prices and more demand than supply. Other people talk about energy demand hitting a peak many years from now, perhaps when most of us have electric cars. Neither of these views is correct. The real situation […]
Why EIA, IEA, and BP Oil Forecasts are Too High
Why EIA, IEA, and BP Oil Forecasts are Too High When forecasting how much oil will be available in future years, a standard approach seems to be the following: Figure out how much GDP growth the researcher hopes to have in the future. “Work backward” to see how much oil is needed, based on how much […]
Why We Have an Oversupply of Almost Everything (Oil, labor, capital, etc.)
Why We Have an Oversupply of Almost Everything (Oil, labor, capital, etc.) The Wall Street Journal recently ran an article called, Glut of Capital and Labor Challenge Policy Makers: Global oversupply extends beyond commodities, elevating deflation risk. To me, this is a very serious issue, quite likely signaling that we are reaching what has been called Limits to […]
Overview of Our Energy Modeling Problem
Overview of Our Energy Modeling Problem We live in a world with limits, yet our economy needs growth. How can we expect this scenario to play out? My view is that this problem will play out as a fairly near-term financial problem, with low oil prices leading to a fall in oil production. But not everyone […]
The oil glut and low prices reflect an affordability problem
The oil glut and low prices reflect an affordability problem For a long time, there has been a belief that the decline in oil supply will come by way of high oil prices. Demand will exceed supply. It seems to me that this view is backward–the decline in supply will come through low oil prices. The […]
Charts showing the long-term GDP-energy tie (Part 2 – A New Theory of Energy and the Economy)
Charts showing the long-term GDP-energy tie (Part 2 – A New Theory of Energy and the Economy) In Part 1 of this series, I talked about why cheap fuels act to create economic growth. In this post, we will look at some supporting data showing how this connection works. The data is over a very long time […]
Gail Tverberg: This Is The Beginning Of The End For Oil Production
Gail Tverberg: This Is The Beginning Of The End For Oil Production Why the shale collapse is ushering in a permanent turndown With the recent collapse in the price of oil, Gail Tverberg, returns to discuss the likely impact on the US shale oil industry, as well as the global market for oil. Gail is a professional […]
Eight Pitfalls in Evaluating Green Energy Solutions | Our Finite World
Eight Pitfalls in Evaluating Green Energy Solutions | Our Finite World. Does the recent climate accord between US and China mean that many countries will now forge ahead with renewables and other green solutions? I think that there are more pitfalls than many realize. Pitfall 1. Green solutions tend to push us from one set of resources […]
