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Nassim Taleb Explains How The Global Economy Is More Fragile Today Than In 2007

In what was incredibly appropriate timing given the ‘shocktober’ market blowup, Bloomberg News invited “Black Swan” author Nassim Taleb to its set on Halloween for a discussion about the increasingly fragile market ecosystem in which we all reside, and the mounting risks that, Taleb believes, could soon ignite another financial crisis that will be even more severe than what we saw in 2008.

Taleb, dressed up as “black swan man”, wasted little time in explaining how the global economy is becoming increasingly vulnerable to a global debt crisis, how the global quantitative easing did nothing to fix the underlying problem of too much debt – instead it exacerbated it – and how the inevitable reckoning might play out in markets once the long-dreaded “inflection point” finally arrives.

Taleb

Taleb began the interview by describing how the global aggregate debt burden has only climbed since the crisis. And while this debt is no longer dangerously concentrated in a single sector, like, say, the housing market, it doesn’t change the fact that the overall credit risk in the system has been amplified. And while central banks have for years managed to impose metastability in global markets, as they transition from a period of low interest rates back to “neutral”, the destructive forces that they long suppressed will surge back to the surface.

Just like he did in the run-up to the 2008 crash, Taleb isn’t trying to forecast the next crash; he’s only trying to explain how the global economy has become “more fragile today” than it was in 2007.

“You put novocaine on cancer, and what happens? The patient is going to look better, he’s going to feel better, but at some point, you pay a higher price.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Weekly Commentary: MBS and the Core

Weekly Commentary: MBS and the Core

The Dow (DJIA) traded as low as 24,122 in late-Monday afternoon trading. By Friday’s open, the Dow had rallied 1,457 points, or 6.0%, to 25,579. Relatively speaking, the Dow was a tame kitten. From Monday’s intraday lows, the Nasdaq100 rallied as much at 7.8%. The Semiconductors won this week’s Wild Animal competition, rallying 12.7% (week’s lows to highs). At 11.9%, the Biotechs were a close second. The Homebuilders (XHB) rallied as much as 11.3% before ending the week with a gain of 7.3%.
A couple obvious questions come to mind: Bear market rally or just another “buy the dip, don’t be one” opportunity for a market again ready to scale new heights? Is President Trump now ready to strike a trade deal with China – or was he just goosing markets ahead of the midterms?

Let’s start with the markets. They certainly had the likeness of a classic “rip your face off” bear market rally. The Goldman Sachs Most Short index surged 9.0% off Monday lows. For the week, this index rose 6.1%, showing off a 2.5 beta versus the S&P500’s return (6.1%/2.4%). In the semiconductor space, heavily shorted On Semiconductor, NXP Semiconductor, AMD and Micron Technology gained 23.9%, 18.5%, 14.8% and 13.9%, respectively. A long list of heavily shorted retail stocks gained double-digits, as the Retail index (XRT) surged 4.3% for the week.

There were a number of heavily shorted biotech stocks that posted 20% plus gains for the week. A bunch of regional banks rose between five and nine percent. And I’d be remiss for not mentioning (everyone’s favorite short) Tesla. In just 10 sessions, Tesla rallied (38%) from a low of $253 to Friday’s $346 close.

It’s certainly worth noting that short squeeze dynamics were not limited to U.S. equities. Let’s start at the epicenter of global crisis dynamics, the big banks. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (Chinese) Financials index rallied as much as 8.3% off the week’s lows, to end the week up 6.3%.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Rescuing the Banks Instead of the Economy

Rescuing the Banks Instead of the Economy

Photo Source Mark Dixon | CC BY 2.0

You can’t bail out the banks, leave the debts in place, and rescue the economy. It’s a zero-sum game. Somebody has to lose. That’s what happened in 2009 when President Obama came in. He invited the bankers to the White House and he said, “I’m the only guy standing between you and the mob with pitchforks,” by which he meant the voters that he was bamboozling. He reassured the bankers. He said, “Look, my loyalty is to my campaign donors not to the voters. Don’t worry; my loyalty is with you.”

I’m Bonnie Faulkner. Today on Guns and Butter, Dr. Michael Hudson. Today’s show: Rescuing the Banks Instead of the Economy. Dr. Hudson is a financial economist and historian. He is president of the Institute for the Study of Long-Term Economic Trend, a Wall Street financial analyst and Distinguished Research Professor of Economics at the University of Missouri, Kansas City. His 1972 book Super Imperialism: The Economic Strategy of American Empire is a critique of how the United States exploited foreign economies through the IMF and World Bank. His latest books are  Killing the Host: How Financial Parasites and Debt Bondage to Ensure the Global Economy and J is for Junk Economics.. Today we discuss how the bank bailouts, not the crash, are killing the economy. Also, the concept of debt deflation, the magic of compound interest, the growth of the financial extraction FIRE sector, quantitative easing, tariffs, economic sanctions and isolationism.

BONNIE FAULKNER: Dr. Michael Hudson, welcome.

MICHAEL HUDSON: It’s good to be back after a few years.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Just in Time Stimulus: Fed Proposes Looser Rules for Large U.S. Banks

The Fed’s proposal marks one of the most significant rollbacks of bank regulations since Trump took office.

The Wall Street Journal reports Fed Proposes Looser Rules for Large U.S. Banks

The Federal Reserve announced one of the most significant rollbacks of bank rules since President Trump took office with a proposal for looser capital and liquidity requirements for large U.S. lenders.

The changes would affect large U.S. lenders including U.S. Bancorp , Capital One Financial Corp. , and more than a dozen others. The largest U.S. banks, including JPMorgan Chase & Co., wouldn’t see any significant rule changes, and some in the industry thought the proposal didn’t go far enough.

The draft proposal, approved by a 3-1 vote at a Wednesday meeting of the Fed’s governing board, would divide big banks into four categories based on their size and other risk factors. Regional lenders would be either entirely released from certain capital and liquidity requirements, or see those requirements reduced. They could also, in some cases, be subject to less frequent stress tests.

The proposals received a mixed reaction from banks. While some trade groups praised it, Greg Baer—president of the Bank Policy Institute, which represents large banks—said the proposal “does not do enough to tailor regulations.” He said, for instance, the plan doesn’t include changes to the Fed’s primary stress tests for big banks or to rules affecting foreign-owned banks with U.S. footprints. Fed officials said they were planning future proposal in those areas.

The plan divided the Fed, with Trump-appointed regulators and the Fed’s lone Obama-appointed official taking opposite sides. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said the proposal would cut the regulatory burden “while maintaining the most stringent requirements for firms that pose the greatest risks.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Same Old COMEX Games

The Same Old COMEX Games- Craig Hemke (31/10/2018)
A small move in price enables The Banks to lay the shorts right back on.

Just three weeks ago, we warned you to ignore newsletter pundits who were claiming that one day soon, The Banks that operate on the COMEX will be long and on the side of the regular investor/stacker. As with all nonsense, this sentiment ignores reality. Before reading further, I urge you to read this post from October 9: https://www.sprottmoney.com/Blog/the-banks-are-not…

October 9 was a Tuesday, and that’s pretty handy because all of the CFTC’s Commitment of Traders surveys are taken after the COMEX close on Tuesdays. Back on October 9, the price of COMEX gold closed at $1191. The CoT survey taken that day was reported on Friday, October 12. And what did it show? Check the handy spreadsheet below from Goldseek.

As you can see, on October 9 the positions were summarized as follows:

The Large Speculators (primarily hedge funds, managed money, trading funds) NET SHORT 38,175 contracts. This was a new ALL-TIME HIGH NET SHORT position for this category.

The Commercials (primarily Big Banks like JPM, HSBC, MS, etc.) NET LONG 25,866 contracts . This was a new ALL-TIME HIGH NET LONG position for this category.

On the disaggregated report, the sub-category “Managed Money” was historically NET SHORT 109,544 contracts, as you can see below.

Fast-forward two weeks to Tuesday, October 23. The price of COMEX gold had risen $45 to $1236 and another CoT survey was taken. This report was released last Friday, the 26th, and it is shown below.

So, on a price move of less than 4%, it’s quite clear that The Banks have revealed themselves as NOT “on your side”. Not now, not ever. The positions on this most recent report can be summarized as:

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Fed To Ease Liquidity Requirements For Regional Banks As Brainard Warns Of More Bailouts

On Wednesday the Federal Reserve is set to vote on proposals that would further ease capital requirements for banks with assets of $700 billion or lower, expanding on Trump’s promise to deregulate Wall Street.

The biggest benefits will come to banks with between $100 billion and $250 billion of assets – or the bulk of regional banks – who would no longer have to adhere to liquidity coverage ratio and proposed net stable funding ratio, according to prepared remarks by Fed Vice Chairman of Supervision Randal Quarles. Firms between $100 billion and $250 billion would also face stress tests every two years, instead of annually

“A reduction of this magnitude is appropriate because most U.S. banking firms in this group are not engaged in complex activities and have more stable funding than systemic banks given their relatively traditional business models,” said Quarles.

At the same time, Non-Wall Street banks that have more than $250 billion of assets would move to a “calibrated” liquidity coverage ratio that is in the range of 70% to 85% of full LCR, Bloomberg notes.

Meanwhile, large banks will generally see little benefits from today’s deregulation: Quarles said that large bank holding companies now have about $1.3 trillion of capital, and the Fed proposals would reduce that by only $8 billion.

Curiously, Fed Governor Lael Brainard said she plans to vote against proposals, arguing they would raise “the risk that American taxpayers again will be on the hook” to bail out banks.

“I see little benefit to the institutions or the system from the proposed reduction in core resilience that could justify the increased risk to financial stability and the taxpayer,” Brainard says in prepared remarks.

Her caution is warranted in light of the recent earnings shock unveiled by Bank OZK which unveiled a deeply distressed commercial real estate portfolio, which sent its stock plunging and prompted questions whether banks are covering up deterioration in some of their CRE holdings.

Paul Volcker’s Fed Criticism Hints at Potential Recession

Paul Volcker’s Fed Criticism Hints at Potential Recession

paul volcker federal reserve

From Birch Gold Group

In the 1980’s, amidst out-of-control inflation, former Fed chairman Paul Volcker employed a controversial economic strategy of high interest rates to combat the issue.

In that case, the economic band-aid, dubbed “The Volcker Rule”, worked.

Volcker is 91 now, and as reported in the New York Times, his respect for the Fed is “all gone.” In a recent interview about his memoir, not only did Volcker take the opportunity to travel down memory lane, he also lambasted the Fed’s “2 percent rate target”:

“I puzzle at the rationale,” he wrote. “A 2 percent target, or limit, was not in my textbook years ago. I know of no theoretical justification.”

With a laugh, he told me that he believed the policy was driven by fears of deflation. “And we haven’t had any deflation in this country for 90 years!”

During the interview, he also made an eerie blanket statement summarizing his thoughts about the U.S., the Fed, and the economy.

He stated clearly, “We’re in a hell of a mess in every direction”. Talking about the stability of banks later in the interview, Volcker revealed an unsettling thought (emphasis ours):

They’re in a stronger position than they were, but the honest answer is I don’t know how much they’re manipulating.

He finished the interview saying, “We need stronger supervisory powers”. It’s tough to disagree with that.

Especially after the Dow dropped 1,400 points two weeks ago, and a slight recovery dropped dramatically again this week, the worry in the markets is clear.

On October 3, the Dow sat at 26,828. Market optimists were singing the praises of a market on the way to the top. But things have turned around dramatically.

Today, the Dow closed at 24,984, for an overall drop of 1,844 points in only 22 days. It has lost almost everything it gained in 2018.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Global Banking Stocks Are Crashing Hard – Just Like They Did In 2008

Global Banking Stocks Are Crashing Hard – Just Like They Did In 2008

Global stocks are falling precipitously once again, and banking stocks are leading the way.  If this reminds you of 2008, it should, because that is precisely what we witnessed back then.  Banking stocks collapsed as fear gripped the marketplace, and ultimately many large global banks had to be bailed out either directly or indirectly by their national governments as they failed one after another.  The health of the banking system is absolutely paramount, because the flow of money is our economic lifeblood.  When the flow of money tightens up during a credit crunch, the consequences can be rapid and dramatic just like we witnessed in 2008.

So let’s keep a very close eye on banking stocks.  Global systemically important bank stocks surged in the aftermath of Trump’s victory in 2016, but now they are absolutely plunging.  They are now down a whopping 27 percent from the peak, and that puts them solidly in bear market territory.

U.S. banking stocks are not officially in bear market territory yet, but they are getting close.  At this point, they are now down 17 percent from the peak…

Monday early afternoon, the US KBW Bank index, which tracks large US banks and serves as a benchmark for the banking sector, is down 2.5% at the moment. It has dropped 17% from its post-Financial Crisis high on January 29.

Of course European banking stocks are doing much worse.  Right now they are down 27 percent from the peak and 23 percent from a year ago.  The following comes from Wolf Richter

But unlike their American brethren, the European banks have remained stuck in the miserable Financial Crisis mire – a financial crisis that in Europe was followed by the Euro Debt Crisis. The Stoxx 600 bank index, which covers major European banks, including our hero Deutsche Bank, has plunged 27% since February 29, 2018, and is down 23% from a year ago

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

It’s the Banks Again

It’s the Banks Again

US bank stock index down 17% from January. EU bank stocks crushed, crushed, crushed since Financial Crisis.

Monday early afternoon, the US KBW Bank index, which tracks large US banks and serves as a benchmark for the banking sector, is down 2.5% at the moment. It has dropped 17% from its post-Financial Crisis high on January 29. If the index closes at this level, it would be the lowest close since September 18, 2017:

While that may be a nerve-wracking decline for those who have not experienced bank-stock declines, it comes after a huge surge that followed the collapse during the Financial Crisis:

The second chart is on a different scale than the first chart above. So this year’s decline is small fry compared to the movements since 2006, including the dizzying plunge toward zero in early 2009, and the subsequent boom when it became clear that the Fed would pull out all stops to save the banks with all kinds of mechanisms, including ruthless financial repression – forcing interest rates to 0% – that it waged on depositors and savers for a decade. Profits derived from these mechanisms effectively recapitalized the banks.

The 55% jump in bank stocks after the 2016 election through the peak in January 2018 was a reaction to promises for banking deregulation and tax cuts from the new Trump administration along with signs of lots of goodwill toward Wall Street, as top positions in the new administration were quickly being filled with Wall Street insiders. However, the “Trump bump” for banks is now being gradually unwound.

But unlike their American brethren, the European banks have remained stuck in the miserable Financial Crisis mire – a financial crisis that in Europe was followed by the Euro Debt Crisis. The Stoxx 600 bank index, which covers major European banks, including our hero Deutsche Bank, has plunged 27% since February 29, 2018, and is down 23% from a year ago:

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Trump Blaming Fed for Next Market Crash – Dave Janda

Trump Blaming Fed for Next Market Crash – Dave Janda

Radio host Dr. Dave Janda says everybody in Washington knows the next big crash is right around the corner. It’s been 10 years since the Fed reflated the last meltdown, and Dr. Janda says President Trump is already blaming the Federal Reserve for killing the economy that his policies revived. Dr. Janda explains, “President Trump has been pointing the finger at the Fed. He’s been pointing the finger at the Fed, and that is exactly where he should be pointing. The globalist syndicate’s tentacle is the central banking system, and, in particular, in the United States, the Federal Reserve. The Federal Reserve is one of the entities that is directly responsible for this financial mess our country is currently in. You would never see Obama or the Bushes, or Bill Clinton, point at the Fed and say what Trump has said. Trump said, ‘I think the Fed has gone crazy. I think the Fed is making a mistake. They’re so tight with interest rates. I think the Fed has gone crazy.’ Just the other day, Trump said, ‘My biggest threat is the Fed. . . . The Fed is raising rates too fast, and it’s too independent.’ Now, wait a minute, listen to that. It’s too independent. When was the last time a president of the United States said the Fed was too independent? . . . . Banking groups, that is their priority. So, when the President says the Fed is raising rates too fast, and it’s my biggest enemy, and too independent, what he is saying is they are looking out for their own interests. They are not looking out for the interests of our country or for you or for me or for any American, and he’s right. I don’t know of any other president that has had the guts to say this.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The European financial establishment has just declared war on Italy

The European financial establishment has just declared war on Italy

This week in a CNBC interview Jeroen Dijsselbloem, the former Dutch minister of finance who served as the President of the Eurogroup, declared war on the Italian government. The European financial establishment is prepared to destroy the banking system and cause the Italian economy to implode. Like a Mafia boss, Dijsselbloem warned that Italy could run into trouble if it does not comply with Brussels’ directives. Of course, his statement was cloaked in diplomatic language:

“If the Italian crisis becomes a major crisis, it will mainly implode into the Italian economy … as opposed to spreading around Europe,” he said. “Because of the way that the Italian economy and the Italian banks are financed, it’s going to be an implosion rather than an explosion.”

For a man of this format it is unusual to publicly expose Italy as a state in a weak negotiating position or try to act as a scaremonger. We have never seen anything remotely like that, so we think that the utterance could only serve the purpose of giving the green light to the financial markets to orchestrate an attack on Italian bonds so as to drive Italian yield up.

“And there is gonna be a role for the markets, I mean if you look at what Italy needs in funding next year alone we are talking about over 250 billion Euro, refinancing part of the stock of their debt and also, of course, these new spending plans. So markets will really have to look at that very critically.”

Italy’s situation is ‘pretty worrisome’: Dijsselbloem from CNBC.

He reminded the Italian government that Italian banks are a sitting target for the European financial authorities. In order to destabilize a country’s economy, one must break its backbone i.e. banks.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Spain’s Supreme Court Flip-Flops on Mortgage Ruling After Just 1 Day Amid Bank Stocks Bloodbath, Legal Shitstorm Erupts

Spain’s Supreme Court Flip-Flops on Mortgage Ruling After Just 1 Day Amid Bank Stocks Bloodbath, Legal Shitstorm Erupts

Plunging bank stocks got the Court’s attention, or something.

That was fast: Spain’s Supreme Court on Friday flip-flopped on its own ruling announced on Thursday that had sent bank stocks plunging.

It started like this: Thursday morning, Spain’s Supreme Court did something nobody was expecting. It ruled that the country’s banks must pay stamp duty on mortgage loans, which would set them back billions of euros in legal fees and compensation while heaping further pressure on their lending business. News of the ruling sent many of the banks’ shares tumbling to new lows for the year while also heaping pressure on Spain’s ten-year bonds.

“The Supreme Court states that the person who must pay the stamp duty in the public deeds of loans with mortgage guarantees is the lender, not the one who receives the loan,” the court said in a document. The court ruling on Thursday, which overturned a previous ruling in the banks’ favor earlier this year, was final, the Supreme Court said on Thursday.

But by lunchtime Friday, the court had decided to suspend the ruling in light of the acute “economic and social impact” it was having — meaning the banks were in trouble!

The chart shows the shares of Bankia, which is 90% state-owned. Following the Thursday announcement, the already beaten down shares plunged 10% at one point. The Friday flip-flop repaired some but not all of the damage:

It’s impossible to tell just how much the total compensation bill would have come to, since stamp duty varies across Spain’s regions. As many as 8 million mortgage customers would have been affected by the court ruling, said the Spanish consumer association Adicae.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Canary In Coalmine: Bank OZK Plummets After Shock Commercial Real Estate Write Downs

In what may be the deadest canary in the commercial real estate coal mine yet, Bank OZK shares have plunged 26% today after the bank reported abysmal third-quarter earnings that trailed expectations, with net income tumbling but what caught traders’ attention was two commercial real estate charge-offs of $45.5 million on the bank’s Real Estate Specialties Group (RESG) credits for unrelated projects in South and North Carolina.

The Little Rock-based regional bank, with just over $22 billion in assets, also reported that net income declined 23% to $74.2 million in its third quarter from the same period in 2017 due to these write-offs. Bank OZK’s earnings have been closely monitored by analysts since it is such an active real estate lender. The bank reported that the two write-offs during the third quarter were in its Real Estate Specialties Group (“RESG”) portfolio and were related to properties in South Carolina and North Carolina from loans originated in 2007 and 2008, the Real Deal reported.

The bank said in its management comments that its South Carolina charge-off was secured by a regional mall, which has suffered from both “declining property performance and increasing interest rates.” The project was further impacted by uncertainty related to anchor tenants Sears and JC Penney. The North Carolina charge-off was secured by a multi-phase land, residential lot and residential home project, with the bank noting that the homes have not sold well in part due to “cheaper pricing on existing homes.”

What shocked analysts, however, is that these properties had allowance allocations totaling only $19.1 million as of June 30. But after new appraisals, which were much lower than it initially presumed, the bank said it would have to write down each credit to about 80% of its recent appraised value. The combined charge-offs on the two loans in the third quarter came to $45.5 million.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Spanish Yields Blow Out Amid Italy Contagion As Italian Banks Scramble For Dollar Funding

Contagion from the recent surge in Italian yields has spread, and is hitting Spanish 10Y yields which over the past 3 days have blown out from 1.65% to as high as 1.82% this morning, before paring some of the move, printing at 1.77% last which is still the highest level since October 2017.

There are also Spain-specific news that have pushed yields wider, to wit yesterday’s ruling by the nation’s Supreme Court they must pay a one-time tax of about 1% on mortgage loans that traditionally was passed to their clients. The report sent Spanish banks tumbling as much as 6.3% at Banco de Sabadell while banking giant BBVA dropped 1.8%, thanks to its larger international business that cushions the impact of the ruling.

The Supreme Court revised an earlier ruling, deciding now that the levy on documenting mortgage loans must be paid by the lenders, and since mortgages are one of the biggest businesses for domestic banks, analysts have been grappling with how big the hit to income would be. As Bloomberg notes, the sentence is one of a string from Spanish and European Union courts in recent years in favor of home buyers and at the expense of banks.

“The decision implies a severe setback for the Spanish financial system and joy for every mortgage-payer, who might get back a significant amount” of money, said Fernando Encinar, head of research at property website Idealista. In the short term, banks will likely raise their mortgage arrangement fees to compensate for their new cost, he said.

The levy is applied to the mortgage guarantee – the loan amount plus possible foreclosure costs – and could be roughly 1,500 euros ($1,728) on a 180,000-euro loan in Madrid, according to Angel Mejias, an attorney at M de Santiago Abogados in the capital.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

More Italians Move Savings To Switzerland As Fears Of Banking “Doom Loop” Intensify

With the euro weakening against the Swiss franc (recently trading at session lows of 1.14) and Italian stocks and bonds tumbling once again on reports that the European Commission is planning to reject the Italian draft budget plan submitted earlier this week – a repudiation of Italy’s populist leaders that was widely anticipated – the Telegraph’s Ambrose Evans-Pritchard offered a glimpse into how middle-class Italians are reacting to the deteriorating relationship between Italy and the EU, and its attendant impact on the country’s banks and capital markets. In a trend that’s eerily reminiscent of the banking run that precipitated the near-collapse of the Greek banking system (most recently in 2015), Italians are scrambling to convert their euros into Swiss francs and stash them across the country’s northern border with Switzerland.

Swiss

Right now, the movement has mostly been limited to the wealthy. “The big players” have already gotten out…

The Swiss group Albacore Wealth Management told Italy’s Il Sole had received a wave of inquiries from Italians with €5m to €10m in liquid capital. The super-rich are already a step ahead. “The big fish have been organizing the expatriation of their wealth for some time,” it said.

…and those with between 200,000 euros and 300,000 euros in assets are moving more quickly, inspired by memories of desperate Greeks struggling with capital controls that restricted ATM withdrawals.

“There is fear creeping in,” said Massimo Gionso, head of family wealth managers CFO Sim in Milan.

“People are concerned that if we get into the same situation as Greece, they might find the banks are closed and they can take out only €50 a day from cash machines. They don’t want to risk it,” he told the Daily Telegraph.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

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