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A Convocation of Interventionists – Part 1

We are hereby delivering a somewhat belated comment on the meeting of monetary central planners and their courtier economists at Jackson Hole. Luckily timing is not really an issue in this context.
central bank HQs 2Central bank headquarters: the Fed’s Eccles building, the ECB’s hideously expensive new tower in Frankfurt, and the BOJ’s Tokyo HQ (judging from the people in the foreground, it may be a source of noxious fumes).

When discussing papers and speeches delivered at the annual Jackson Hole meeting, it is important to consider the wider socio-economic context. As this article suggests (still the most recent reference available on the topic), the Federal Reserve has essentially bought off the economics profession.

A great many US economists list “monetary policy” in some shape or form as a specialty, or more generally, “macroeconomic policy formation and aspects of public finance”. More than half of the editors of the top seven academic economic journals are on the Fed’s payroll and serve as gatekeepers. The Fed employs hundreds of economists directly, and provides 100ds of millions of dollars in grants to outside economists.

We are quite certain that the situation in other countries is very similar. It is easy to see why practically no fundamental criticism of the monetary system is forthcoming from the economics profession. The basic assumption that money and credit should be centrally planned is rarely challenged (or almost never). Economists naturally won’t bite the hand that feeds them.

Instead, debate as a rule revolves around various “plans”. Their authors are mainly suggesting what they think are improvements on existing plans. Obviously, not all of these plans can be correct; but how can one possibly know which ones might be?

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Gold Sector Correction – What Happens Next?

Gold Sector Correction – What Happens Next?

The Long Awaited Correction is Underway

The gathering of central planners at Jackson Hole was widely expected to bring some clarity regarding the Fed’s policy intentions. This is of course a ridiculous assumption, since these people have not the foggiest idea what they are doing or what they are going to do next. Like all central planners, they are forever groping in the dark.

U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen (L) congratulates Stanley Fischer as he is sworn in a vice chairman at the U.S. central bank in WashingtonHi there! Stanley Fischer finds chief central planner Janet Yellen deep in the bowels of the Eccles building. In Jackson Hole, they played “good cop, bad cop”.

Nevertheless, financial markets keep reacting to their words as if they actually meant something – and of course we have to deal with that reaction, regardless of how irrational it is.

As we have mentioned many times during the gold bear market from 2011 to 2015, it was primarily the threat of a rate hike that put pressure on gold and supported the US dollar. We argued that once the Fed finally dared to implement a baby step rate hike, gold would very likely rally in a “buy the news” type response – which indeed happened.

Ms. Yellen’s speech at Jackson Hole (we will post a little post mortem on that gathering of interventionists soon) was still deemed non-committal enough by the markets. Her deputy Stanley Fischer attended the event as well though, and he started mumbling something about rate hikes.

Pure fantasy this may well turn out to be, but rate hike odds as reflected in the Federal Funds futures market shifted anyway. The gold market in turn still seems to care a lot about these shifts, in spite of the fact that trading in the underlying federal funds market is essentially dead as a doornail (with trillions in excess reserves, banks have no need for interbank borrowing). The threat of a rate hike was deemed to have returned.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Planet Debt

Low Interest Rate Persons

She is a low-interest-rate person. She has always been a low-interest-rate person. And I must be honest. I am a low-interest-rate person. If we raise interest rates, and if the dollar starts getting too strong, we’re going to have some very major problems.

— Donald Trump

TrumpoYellTwo low interest rate persons! The Trumpsumptive president (Donald the Tremendous) can be seen here indicating the approximate size of the interest rate that will still keep us out of “major problems”.

BALTIMORE – With startling clarity, the presumptive Republican presidential nominee described himself – and Fed chief Janet Yellen.  But he could have just as easily been talking about his rival in this year’s presidential elections, Hillary Clinton.

Donald Trump had already gone broke – twice – by the time Bill Clinton took office. But then, the combination of lower interest rates and rising asset prices saved him.

And extraordinary abundance and prosperity of the Clinton years owes little to Mr.  and Mrs. Clinton and much to the fact that Alan Greenspan had inaugurated his famous “Greenspan Put” in 1987.

DJIA, 19871987 – the year of Greenspan’s original sin – click to enlarge.

Greenspan reassured investors that he had their backs with a rate cut whenever the stock market took a turn for the worse. This led to an “illusion of prosperity,” as stock prices rose, helping Bill get reelected… and gaining national prominence for Hillary as the aggrieved wife in the Monica Lewinsky affair.

Stock prices filled with hot air, until the bubble in the Nasdaq blew up in Clinton’s last year in office. Both of this year’s presumptive candidates are “low interest rate” people, all right. Their adult lives were marked by the credit cycle and their careers shaped by ballooning debt. And now, almost the entire world economy depends on low rates.

We live on Planet Debt.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

When Government Controls All Wealth

BALTIMORE – Stock markets continued their rebound on Wednesday. The Dow rose 284 points… or just over 1.5%. London’s FTSE 100 Index was up 3.6%. And Europe’s equivalent of the Dow, the Euro Stoxx 50, was up 2.7%.

brexit-2No wonder the Dragon and his partners in crime flooded the EU banking system with “money” this past week…

Investors have realized Brexit isn’t the end of the world. First, because they think it won’t really happen. After all, elites can fix elections, buy politicians, and control public policy… surely, they can fix this!

A letter in the Financial Times reminds us that Swedish voters cast their ballots against nuclear power in 1980. The government just ignored them, doubling nuclear power generation over the next 36 years.

Second, because investors see the panic over Brexit leading to more spirited intervention by central banks! The EZ money floodgates – already wide open – are to be opened wider.

The U.S. has its QE program on hold, but Europe’s scheme is gushing like Niagara. Mario Draghi at the European Central Bank buys $90 billion a month in bonds. And he’s not only buying government bonds; he’s buying corporates, too.

Less Than Zero

In Japan, always a trendsetter, the Bank of Japan has bought so many bonds it has pushed Japanese government bond yields below zero – out to more than 45 years on the yield curve!

In other words, you can now lend to the bankrupt Japanese government until 2051 with no hope of making a single yen, nominally, on your investment. Now, with bonds stacking up in their vaults, the Japanese feds are diversifying. They’re buying exchange-traded funds (ETFs), too.

JGBJGB weekly over the past 5 years….still a widow-maker! – click to enlarge.

Via its ETF purchases, the BoJ buys about $30 billion of Japanese stocks a year. This has made it a top 10 shareholder in about 90% of the companies listed on the country’s Nikkei 225 Index.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Going… Going… Gone! The EU Begins to Splinter

Early this morning one might have been forgiven for thinking that Japan had probably just been hit by another tsunami. The Nikkei was down 1,300 points, the yen briefly soared above par. Gold had intermittently gained 100 smackers – if memory serves, the biggest nominal intra-day gain ever recorded (with the possible exception of one or two days in early 1980). Here is a picture of Haruhiko Kuroda in front of his Bloomberg monitor this morning:

kuroda headThis can’t be happening… please… let me wake up and realize that it was all just a bad dream…

Photo credit: Reuters

The War Street Journal immediately exhorted the poor man to “go big or go home” – in an article brimming with the usual Keynesian central planning clap-trap (we need more inflation, a strong currency is “bad”, rev up the printing presses, yada-yada…)

Touching less than 99 yen to the dollar, this brings Japan’s currency back to where it started just as Abenomics was ramping up in 2013. With interest rates already negative, a weak currency is one of the few tools Japan has at its disposal. A strong currency will be devastating for efforts to engineer inflation. Japan will need to prepare a response. 

[…]

Bank of Japan Gov. Haruhiko Kuroda will be under pressure to go deeper on negative rates, even though doing so in the first place, in January, has seen the yen strengthen, not weaken.

[ed. note: yes, do more of what hasn’t worked! This is also straight from the Keynesian playbook…]

[…]

If negative rates aren’t the answer, what is? Increasing asset purchases of bonds and exchange-traded funds are an option, but there is limited room to expand those programs and the effect, only marginal at this point. Mr. Kuroda has been dismissive of more aggressive helicopter money-like moves that toe into fiscal policy. 

 

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Fed Has Lost Its “Myth Magic”

Wondering is what we do, here at the Diary, especially wondering about myths. “Myths” are not necessarily untrue. They just can’t be known or proven in the way, say, that Archimedes could prove that the king’s crown was made of gold.  437103_archimedes   Antiquity’s most famous patent troll Archimedes shortly after his famous epiphany in the bathtub

The Old Testament reports on God, for example, could be literally true, symbolically or metaphorically true, or complete fantasy. Unless you get hit on the head with a rock, or an angel speaks to you from a burning bush, you can’t know for sure.

Likewise, we can’t know for sure which candidate for president would be better. Poor Donald Trump is sinking in the polls; the media says his reckless comments are catching up with him. But who knows?

We can’t see into the future – only God can. So, we make our decisions based not on facts, but on which myths (assumptions and prejudices that can’t be tested) we believe.

In newspapers, elections, and most of public life, myths are more important than provable facts. They direct trillions of dollars of spending… and set off wars in which millions are killed.

The largest demonstration in history was in India, with millions of people taking to the streets to protest the killing of cows. In short, myths are worth wondering about. The Fed says it wants 2% consumer price inflation. But there is nothing scientific about it. Is 2% better than, say, 1%? Or no inflation at all? It is myth.

Yesterday, the prophet Janet brought forth the expected blah-blah. Sticking her neck out, she said the Brexit vote next week “could have consequences” for the financial system. Hey, what couldn’t?

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Free Money Leaves Everyone Poorer

BALTIMORE – A dear reader reminded us of the comment, supposedly made by Groucho Marx: “A free lunch? You can’t afford a free lunch.”

Groucho-Marx_Groucho dispensing valuable advice     Photo via imdb.com

He was responding to last week’s Diary about the national referendum in Switzerland on Saturday. Voters will decide whether to give all Swiss residents a free lunch – a guaranteed annual income of about $30,000 a year [ed note: the initiative was overwhelmingly rejected with 78% voting against].

The problem with a guaranteed income (you get it no matter whether you have a job or not) is something we’ve been writing about for the last 15 years. It is the problem with all frauds… all cockamamie, jackass redistribution programs… and all something-for-nothing schemes.

And it is the same whether you are “stimulating” an economy with artificial, phony-baloney “money”, giving aid to foreign dictators, or handing out free lunches to voters at home.

The Deep State, in addition to being malignant and entertaining, is incompetent. It fights wars just to lose them. It solves problems and makes them worse. Led by the Yellen Fed, it “improves” the economy and leaves 9 out of 10 people poorer than they were before.

Today, we turn to a special war – the War on Poverty. Jesus dismissed it. “The poor you will always have with you,”he said. But that didn’t stop the feds from launching an attack.

 

1-BG-war-on-poverty-50-years-chart-2-825The “war on poverty” has been just as rousing a success as the “war on drugs”.  According to the NCPA is has actually cost $22 trillion so far (estimates of the total cost differ) – click to enlarge.

Fortunately, they are so clumsy, lame, and incompetent, they spare us a worse disaster. Had they been smarter and better organized, they would have done even more damage.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Bread and Circuses

BALTIMORE – No whining and kvetching about the Deep State today. Instead, we sit at its feet, admire the cut of its jaw, and sing its praises. We are grateful to it… and not just as a source of amusement. In short, we delight in its incompetence.

o-gigantas-toy-karntif-750x400Excavation of the “Giant of Cardiff” – but there are even more giant, more amusing and more far-reaching frauds on offer these days…     Photo via paranormicstv.com

What brings this to mind is a small item in the news, which, like a pool ball careening across a felted table, knocked two or three others in their pockets before coming to rest. We had to go pluck each one out of its hole and examine it. And what a marvelous fraud each one is! Democracy! Central banking! Welfare statism!

We think of the Swiss as prudent, careful people. They have their feet on the ground and their heads screwed on straight. But they have undertaken a pathetic and preposterous initiative, one so hopelessly ill-conceived, it is worthy of American economists… or French intellectuals.

Specifically, next week the Swiss will vote on a proposal to give a “basic income” to all Swiss residents, whether they work or not: a guaranteed annual income of $30,000. You may have the same reaction we did: This is crazy!

If you can earn $30,000 a year without working, it will be hard for anyone earning less than $60,000 (about the same as $30,000 after taxes in many places) to get up in the morning and put on his overalls.   Why bother?

The waiters will abandon us at our tables, our glasses unfilled and our dirty dishes still in front of us. The valet parkers will drive off in their own new cars. The burger flippers will leave their hot patties in midair as they head home.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Turning Stones Into Bread – The Japanese Miracle

Our friend Ramsey Su just asked what Haruhiko Kuroda and Shinzo Abe are going to do now in light of the strong yen (aside from perhaps doing the honorable thing). Isn’t it time to just “wipe out some debt with the stroke of a pen”?

Samuarai FutonThe modern Samurai futon!

We will return to that question further below, but first a few words on the new Samurai futon. Apparently the Japanese are becoming more than a little antsy about Kuroda-san’s negative interest rate policy (and the threats of more of the same coming down the pike). Bloomberg informs us of the latest developments in this saga: “Manga Worker Stuffs Cash in Futon to Flee Japan’s Negative Rates”:

When the Bank of Japan unexpectedly announced negative interest-rate policies in January, the first thing Tomomi Sato did was withdraw a 10th of the money in her bank account and stash it at home.

“It made me think of bank runs and shutdowns like I’ve heard there were in the past,” said the 30-something assistant to manga comic artists, who commutes for two hours from a small apartment in Tokyo’s suburbs. “Eventually, I feel like they’ll start charging me to keep my money there. When I think about that, I begin to worry.”

Sato is emblematic of a challenge facing the central bank that rates below zero only deepened: average Japanese aren’t feeling the benefits of more than three years of extraordinary monetary stimulus, and cash withdrawals suggest they are losing faith. About 40 trillion yen ($360 billion) has piled up in homes across Japan, according to a Dai-ichi Life Research Institute estimate — equivalent to about 8 percent of gross domestic product. That’s money banks could be lending on or using to buy bonds. 

(emphasis added)

 

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Power Elite: Bumbling Incompetents

BALTIMORE, Maryland – Is there any smarter group of homo sapiens on the planet? Or in all of history? We’re talking about Fed economists, of course.

danger_-_genius_at_work_0-pngNot only did they avoid another Great Depression by bold absurdity…giving the economy more of the one thing of which it clearly had too much – debt. They also carefully monitored the economy’s progress so as to avoid any backsliding into normalcy.

And where do we get this penetrating appraisal? From the Fed economists themselves, of course. Bloomberg:

“The U.S. Federal Reserve’s decisions to delay interest-rate hikes helped cushion the economic shocks caused by rapidly rising borrowing costs for U.S. companies from late last year through early 2016, according to economists at the New York Fed.

“By maintaining the federal funds rate lower, the FOMC managed to substantially offset the effect of tightening financial conditions on the economy,” the authors, referring to the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee, wrote in a blog post on the bank’s website on Wednesday.”

They’re geniuses. No doubt about it. That’s why they’re in charge and we’re not. They’re the elite. They run the Deep State. They may not pay the piper, but they call the tune anyway. And good on them! Who knows what prices we might discover if we were left on our own?

Debt, debt, GDP and FF rateThe gap between economic output and the debt accumulated to achieve it continues to widen…while savers are expropriated and capitalists are given an incentive to consume their capital (the “euthanasia of the rentier” propagated by Keynes has finally been achieved) – click to enlarge.

Four Lost Decades

One of the endearing features of the ruling classes is their abiding faith in their own judgment. Despite inexhaustible evidence that they are bumbling incompetents, the power elite stick to their guns – literally – and to their cushy sinecures.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

China’s Rolling Boom-Bust Cycle

There is a mysterious figure making regular appearances in China’s government mouthpiece “People’s Daily”, which simply goes by the name “authoritative person” (AP). This unnamed entity always tends to show up with bad news for assorted speculators, by suggesting that various scenarios associated with monetary and/ or fiscal stimulus are actually not in China’s immediate future (the details of AP’s latest pronouncements can be found here and here).

people's dailyThe People’s Daily. “Authoritative Person” may be hiding somewhere in the picture to the left.

Some observers seem to believe that this represents a “renewed shift in policy” – Bloomberg e.g. quotes an economist with Mizuho Securities as follows:

“It is very significant and may signal a shift in China’s policies,” said Shen Jianguang, chief Asia economist at Mizuho Securities Asia Ltd. in Hong Kong. “Each time they publish this, it is normally a warning.” 

Others are more careful – after all, this seems to be a case of “we’re saying one thing and doing another”, given a credit expansion of 4.6 trillion yuan in just the first quarter, which has sent narrow money supply growth soaring to more than 22% annualized.

The more measured argument is that it could be a sign that the debate about future economic policy is ongoing, resp. has been revived. No-one really knows – it is basically the Chinese version of Kremlinology.

1-China - M1,M2 growthAt the end of March, China’s narrow money supply measure M1 was growing at more than 22% y/y – click to enlarge.

Although the extension of new yuan loans has slowed significantly in April from January’s heady pace (555 bn. vs. 2.5 trn.), there has still been enough pumping in the system to push M1 up again in March-April from a brief dip in February – in other words, if there is indeed a change in policy, it is not really visible yet.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Fresh Mainstream Nonsense on Gold Demand

We and many others have made a valiant effort over the years to explain what actually moves the gold market (as examples see e.g. our  article “Misconceptions About Gold”, or Robert Blumen’s excellent essay “Misunderstanding Gold Demand”).  Sometimes it is a bit frustrating when we realize it has probably all been for naught.

Gold bars are displayed at a gold jewellery shop in the northern Indian city of ChandigarhGold wants to know what it has done now…     Photo credit: Ajay Verma / Reuters

This was brought home to us again in a recent missive posted at Kitco, which discusses an RBC research note on gold. In a way, it is actually quite funny. The post at Kitco is titled “Gold’s ‘One-legged’ Rally Is Cause of Concern”.

We can assure you it is not of “concern” to us. But we did wonder why the rally was supposedly “one-legged”, so we decided to read on.

Here is what RBC has decided was worth sharing in its new research report:

Despite gold’s impressive run up so far this year, analysts at RBC Capital Markets are concerned by the “one-legged” nature of its rally. In a research report Friday, commodity strategists for the bank noted that gold’s 2016 upswing has been mainly driven by investors, while other sources of demand haven’t followed through.

“In fact, investment demand seems to be the only leg driving this one-legged rally. For us to turn positive, we would need to see this strength replicated elsewhere,” they said. “Investor sentiment has turned amid a flight to safety, but that seems to be the only sentiment that has in fact shifted.”

(emphasis added)

Color us completely flabbergasted. What “others sources of demand” apart from investment demand are supposedly needed to produce a rally in gold and make it two-legged or maybe even three-legged?

1-Gold, dailyJune gold, daily. You poor one-legged thing! – click to enlarge.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Cure is Worse than the Disease

Today we look back to the recent past with singleness of purpose.  Context and edification for the present economy is what we’re after.  We have questions…

How come the recovery has been so weak?  Why is it that, nearly seven years after the official end of the Great Recession, the economy’s still mired in a soft muddy quagmire?  Squinting, focusing, and refocusing, there’s one particular week that rises above all others.

Hank the scaremongerHank the scaremonger – in meetings behind closed doors, he threatened Congressmen with financial apocalypse and even martial law if they didn’t hand over $700 billion in tax payer money with essentially no oversight. This has been independently confirmed by several Congressmen. Griffin’s “The Creature from Jekyll Island” is often decried as “conspiracy theory” by establishment shills, but it inter alia contains an eerie prediction of practically everything that eventually happened in 2008.Photo credit: Talks at Google

On Saturday September 20, 2008, Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson delivered a draft of the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) to Congress for review.  If you recall, it had been another wild week.  On Monday, September 15, after 158 years of operation, Lehman Brothers vanished from the face of the earth…Dick Fuld, “The Gorilla,” be damned.

All week the sky relentlessly fell on financial markets.  Even money market funds were in full panic.  In fact, a record $169.03 billion of capital had vacated money market funds in the week ended September 17.

That same day, the Wall Street Journal’s headline was, “U.S. to Take Over AIG in $85 Billion Bailout.”  On top of that, the Primary Fund broke the buck – falling to $0.97 cents a share.  The SEC also went so far as to impose a 10 trading-day ban on short sales of 799 financial stocks.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

May Day Mayhem – Discontent on the Continent

All over Europe not only religious and national holidays are observed, but also a socialist holiday, which we always thought was a bit strange – and in a way quite telling (as far as we know, there is no holiday celebrating the free market). Traditionally the rank and file comrades tend to gather around their leaders on May Day, waving their party-approved banners  and dutifully applauding at the appropriate moments. Not anymeure, as Clouseau would say.

einig-in-der-ablehnung-aufThe sign says: “Lying press, system of lies, scandal” – in Germany these demonstrators are somewhat condescendingly referred to as “Wutbürger” in the mainstream press (i.e., “angry citizens”). The term essentially implies that while they’re momentarily irate, they have no plan anyway, and can be expected to calm down again soon enough. This seems to have succeeded in making them even more angry.     Photo credit: IMAGO

In several European countries the political situation is deteriorating at warp speed lately. We say “deteriorating” not because we commiserate with the establishment figures that have come under pressure, but because the alternatives are usually not exactly appealing either (more on developments on this front in a follow-up post).

Here is a scene from May Day celebrations in Austria, that must surely have shocked the country’s political elite. Socialist chancellor Werner Faymann and the bigwigs of his fast-shrinking party found themselves confronted with a rather unusual May Day crowd. This was actually the second shock for the establishment in a very short time – the first was delivered on occasion of the recent presidential election.

The video shows Faymann delivering his traditional May Day address, which is essentially a sequence of socialist platitudes like every year – only garnished with occasional references to “difficult times” this time around.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Bank of Japan: The Limits of Monetary Tinkering

After waking up on Thursday, we quickly glanced at the overnight market action in Asia and noticed that the Nikkei had tanked rather noticeably. Our first thought upon seeing this was “must be the yen” – and so it was:

1-Yen, June, dailyJune yen futures, daily – taking off again – click to enlarge.

Given the BoJ’s bizarre plan to push consumer price inflation to a 2% annualized rate within [enter movable goal post here] years, Mr. Kuroda cannot be overly happy about that. In fact, lately it seemingly doesn’t matter what he decides to do or not to do – the yen is going up anyway.

Last Thursday he reportedly “disappointed” markets by not expanding the BoJ’s madcap asset purchase program even further. We are not quite sure what people believe could possibly be achieved by making the parabola shown below even more parabolic.

2-BoJ assetsAssets held by the BoJ – Mr. Kuroda’s “QQE” (“quantitative and qualitative easing”) was started in April of 2012. The program has certainly impoverished Japan’s citizens, who have seen their real incomes plummet. Lately it has however abjectly failed to achieve its stated goal, which is actually a blessing in disguise… – click to enlarge.

As far as the yen is concerned, we should point out that the trade-weighted real exchange rate of the yen at one point last year had declined to levels last seen in 1973. Combined with the recent strengthening of its technical condition, there is thus actually a good reason for the market to bid the yen up.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Olduvai IV: Courage
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Olduvai II: Exodus
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