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Debt: The Key Factor Connecting Energy and the Economy
Debt: The Key Factor Connecting Energy and the Economy There are many who believe that the use of energy is critical to the growth of the economy. In fact, I am among these people. The thing that is not as apparent is that growth in energy consumption is dependent on the growth of debt. Both energy and […]
US 2015 Oil Production and Future Oil Prices
US 2015 Oil Production and Future Oil Prices Oil production can be confusing because there are various “pieces” that may or may not be included. In this analysis, I look at oil production of the United States broadly (including crude oil, natural gas plant liquids, and biofuels), because this is the way oil consumption is defined. I […]
Why we have a wage inequality problem
Why we have a wage inequality problem Wage inequality is a topic in elections around the world. What can be done to provide more income for those without jobs, and those with low wages? Wage inequality is really a sign of a deeper problem; basically it reflects an economic system that is not growing rapidly enough […]
Our economic growth system is reaching limits in a strange way
Our economic growth system is reaching limits in a strange way Economic growth never seems to be as high as those making forecasts would like it to be. This is a record of recent forecasts by the International Monetary Fund: Figure 1. World GDP Forecasts by the International Monetary Fund. Figure 2 shows world economic growth […]
Why Globalization Reaches Limits
Why Globalization Reaches Limits We have been living in a world of rapid globalization, but this is not a condition that we can expect to continue indefinitely. Figure 1. Ratio of Imported Goods and Services to GDP. Based in FRED data for IMPGS. Each time imported goods and services start to surge as a percentage of […]
Why oil under $30 per barrel is a major problem
Why oil under $30 per barrel is a major problem A person often reads that low oil prices–for example, $30 per barrel oil prices–will stimulate the economy, and the economy will soon bounce back. What is wrong with this story? A lot of things, as I see it: Oil producers can’t really produce oil for $30 […]
2016: Oil Limits and the End of the Debt Supercycle
2016: Oil Limits and the End of the Debt Supercycle What is ahead for 2016? Most people don’t realize how tightly the following are linked: Growth in debt Growth in the economy Growth in cheap-to-extract energy supplies Inflation in the cost of producing commodities Growth in asset prices, such as the price of shares of stock […]
Gail Tverberg: Something Has Got To Break
Gail Tverberg: Something Has Got To Break Growing debt faster than your energy supply has hard limits Actuary Gail Tverberg explains the tight correlation between the rates of GDP growth and growth in energy supply. For decades, energy has been becoming more costly to obtain, and instead of accepting lower GDP growth, we have been […]
We are at Peak Oil now; we need very low-cost energy to fix it
We are at Peak Oil now; we need very low-cost energy to fix it This past week, I gave a presentation to a group interested in a particular type of renewable energy–solar energy that is deployed in space, so it would provide electricity 24 hours per day. Their question was: how low does the production cost […]
Economic growth: How it works; how it fails; why wealth disparity occurs
Economic growth: How it works; how it fails; why wealth disparity occurs Economists have put together models of how an economy works, but these models were developed years ago, when the world economy was far from limits. These models may have been reasonably adequate when they were developed, but there is increasing evidence that they don’t […]
Why “supply and demand” doesn’t work for oil
Why “supply and demand” doesn’t work for oil The traditional understanding of supply and demand works in some limited cases–will a manufacturer make red dresses or blue dresses? The manufacturer’s choice doesn’t make much difference to the economic system as a whole, except perhaps in the amount of red and blue dye sold, so it is […]
Oops! Low oil prices are related to a debt bubble
Oops! Low oil prices are related to a debt bubble Why is the price of oil so low now? In fact, why are all commodity prices so low? I see the problem as being an affordability issue that has been hidden by a growing debt bubble. As this debt bubble has expanded, it has kept the sales prices […]
How our energy problem leads to a debt collapse problem
How our energy problem leads to a debt collapse problem Usually, we don’t stop to think about how the whole economy works together. A major reason is that we have been lacking data to see long-term relationships. In this post, I show some longer-term time series relating to energy growth, GDP growth, and debt growth–going back […]
A Transition for Humanity Into the Post-Petroleum Age: 10 Commandments.
A Transition for Humanity Into the Post-Petroleum Age: 10 Commandments. On her blog, “Our Finite World”, Gail Tverberg outlines the likely prognosis for humanity, and our best possible choices, as we run up against the Limits of Growthhttp://ourfiniteworld.com/2014/02/17/reaching-limits-to-growth-what-should-our-response-be/ The case she unveils is, to say the least of it, sobering, but I am reminded of an […]
