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When Renewables Are Not Renewable

Sure the wind and sun are renewable, but the collectors we build are not

Wind Turbines

Solar

Solar panels must be replaced every 30 to 40 years because solar panels degrade efficiency by about 1% per year. If we covered the entire state of Arizona with solar panels, they would produce enough electricity to power the world at our current level of demand — but they would have to be replaced every 30–40 years.

Wind

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Shell’s Massive Carbon Capture Plant Is Emitting More Than It’s Capturing

Shell’s Massive Carbon Capture Plant Is Emitting More Than It’s Capturing

A new Global Witness report found that it has the same carbon footprint per year as 1.2 million gas-powered cars.
Shell's Quest carbon capture and storage facility in Fort Saskatchewan, Alberta.
SHELL’S QUEST CARBON CAPTURE AND STORAGE FACILITY IN FORT SASKATCHEWAN, ALBERTA. THE CANADIAN PRESS/JASON FRANSON

A first-of-its-kind “green” Shell facility in Alberta is emitting more greenhouse gases than it’s capturing, throwing into question whether taxpayers should be funding it, a new report has found.

Shell’s Quest carbon capture and storage facility captured 5 million tonnes of carbon dioxide from the hydrogen produced at its Scotford complex between 2015 and 2019. Scotford refines oil from the Alberta tar sands.

But a new report from human rights organization Global Witness found the hydrogen plant emitted 7.5 million tonnes of greenhouse gases in the same timeframe—including methane, which has 80 times the warming power of carbon during its first 20 years in the atmosphere, and accounts for about a quarter of man-made warming today.

To put that in perspective, the “climate-forward” part of the Scotford plant alone has the same carbon footprint per year as 1.2 million fuel-powered cars, Global Witness said.

“We do think Shell is misleading the public in that sense and only giving us one side of the story,” said Dominic Eagleton, who wrote the report. He said industry’s been pushing for governments to subsidize the production of fossil hydrogen (hydrogen produced from natural gas) that’s supplemented with carbon capture technology as a “climate-friendly” way forward, but the new report shows that’s not the case.

In an email, Shell said the facility was introduced to display the merits of carbon capture technology, but didn’t directly respond to the allegation that its hydrogen component emitted 7.5 million tonnes of greenhouse gases.

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The Saga of Crude Oil. An Epic Story told by Douglas Reynolds

The Saga of Crude Oil. An Epic Story told by Douglas Reynolds

The “bell curve” of oil production has been popularized together with the concept of “peak oil,” the point of the curve where the global crude oil production reaches its maximum, just before starting its irreversible decline. There is something universal in this curve that may describe much more than just the output of the oil industry. Have you ever tried to look at the curve in narrative terms? If you did, you may have noticed that it describes a typical heroic saga. The hero starts as a young hopeful, grows to be successful in his quest, then faces decline in old age. That’s the way the universe moves and it is not a coincidence that Douglas Reynolds chose the title of “An Energy Odyssey,” linking to Ulysses’ saga, for his recent book on the world cycle of peak oil. 

Every civilization has its founding saga. It is the story of a hero, or a group of heroes, who manage to overcome enormous difficulties, succeed in their task, and then fade slowly, enjoying the fruits of their efforts. The Sumerians had the story of Gilgamesh, the Greeks the Iliad and the Odyssey, Medieval Europe had Dante’s comedy, and there were many others.

What about us? We do not really have a saga that defines our civilization, except rather brutal ones that involve the bombing to smithereens of the enemies of democracy. Perhaps it is because our society is unlike any of the past ones: it was not created by heroes, but it grew over the availability of cheap and abundant sources of energy that no society ever had in the past: fossil fuels.
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2022: Energy limits are likely to push the world economy into recessionIn my view, there are three ways a growing economy can be sustained:

2022: Energy limits are likely to push the world economy into recessionIn my view, there are three ways a growing economy can be sustained:

  1. With a growing supply of cheap-to-produce energy products, matched to the economy’s energy needs.
  2. With growing debt and other indirect promises of future goods and services, such as rising asset prices.
  3. With growing complexity, such as greater mechanization of processes and supply lines that extend around the world.

All three of these approaches are reaching limits. The empty shelves some of us have been seeing recently are testimony to the fact that complexity is reaching a limit. And the growth in debt looks increasingly like a bubble that can easily be popped, perhaps by rising interest rates.

In my view, the first item listed is critical at this time: Is the supply of cheap-to-produce energy products growing fast enough to keep the world economy operating and the debt bubble inflated? My analysis suggests that it is not. There are two parts to this problem:

[a] The cost of producing fossil fuels and delivering them to where they are needed is rising rapidly because of the effects of depletion. This higher cost cannot be passed on to customers, without causing recession. Politicians will act to keep prices low for the benefit of consumers. Ultimately, these low prices will lead to falling production because of inadequate reinvestment to offset depletion.

[b] Non-fossil fuel energy products are not living up to the expectations of their developers. They are not available when they are needed, where they are needed, at a low enough cost for customers. Electricity prices don’t rise high enough to cover their true cost of production. Subsidies for wind and solar tend to drive nuclear electricity out of business, leaving an electricity situation that is worse, rather than better. Rolling blackouts can be expected to become an increasing problem.

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China Coal Production Hits Record To Avoid Energy Crisis

China Coal Production Hits Record To Avoid Energy Crisis

Many of us in the Western world are spending the most ever on electricity bills, forced to eat fake meat, and paying a lot more in taxes for green initiatives. At the same time, China ignores the green revolution by ramping up record coal production in December.

China, the world’s biggest polluter and consumer of coal, produced a record 384.67-million tons of the dirtiest fossil fuel last month, up 7.2% YoY compared with the same month a year ago. The month prior, production was up nearly 14 million tons. For the full year, output reached 4.07 billion tons, up 4.7% over the previous year.

While Chinese President Xi Jinping skipped out on the Group of 20 summit and United Nations climate conference in late 2021, many Western powers agreed to reduce carbon dioxide emissions by the end of this decade and reach carbon neutrality by 2050. It wasn’t a mistake that China didn’t show up to the conference because they were too busy panic hoarding coal and other fossil fuels ahead of the Northern Hemisphere winter to avoid an energy crisis. Beijing ordered state-owned energy companies to secure fossil fuel supplies at any costs in early October.

The move to panic hoard sent thermal coal futures contracts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange to a record high of 2,309 yuan per ton on Oct. 18. By the end of the month, regulators imposed price caps on miners and ordered more production. Prices plunged 69% from 2,309 to 712 today due to the market intervention by the government as coal inventories for utilities surpassed 162 million tons, or about 21 days usage, about 40 million more tons than the same period last year.

One can forget Beijing’s diplomatic pledges to reduce carbon dioxide emissions and carbon neutrality in the coming decades — it simply won’t happen any time this soon as their calls to go green is just hot air.

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UK energy crisis is a fossil fuel crisis – and gas is the villain

UK energy crisis is a fossil fuel crisis – and gas is the villain

New analysis by energy think tank Ember reveals that the skyrocketing price of fossil gas was responsible for 85% of the increase in UK wholesale electricity prices in 2021. In just one year, wholesale electricity prices quadrupled and it became almost five times more expensive to generate electricity from gas plants.

“Gas is the villain. Not the green investments that can end the UK’s dependence on this costly and polluting fossil fuel,” said Ember COO Phil MacDonald.

Monthly average UK wholesale electricity prices jumped by almost £190/MWh in 2021 – from £55/MWh (December 2020) to £245/MWh (December 2021). The cost of fossil gas was responsible for £162/MWh (85%) of this spike.

The UK remains heavily reliant on fossil gas for its electricity. In 2021, the UK generated 40% of its electricity from fossil gas plants. From December 2020 to December 2021, the cost of generating electricity from a combined cycle gas power plant (CCGT) surged from £48/MWh to £227/MWh (+£179/MWh).[1] The carbon price only accounted for £17/MWh (10%) of the increased cost of generating electricity from CCGTs.

Skyrocketing wholesale electricity prices will soon hit consumers directly. The cap on UK energy bills is set for an unprecedented increase in April 2022, likely pushing millions more into energy poverty. Despite claims by a small group of Conservative MPs in the ‘Net Zero Scrutiny Group’, the energy crisis has almost nothing to do with green subsidies. The principal reason is the skyrocketing price of fossil gas. Previously Ember forecasted that the gas price spike will add £29 billion to UK electricity bills in 2022.

“The UK energy crisis is a fossil fuel crisis. The more wind turbines and solar panels the UK can build, the less the country will be hostage to the volatile global gas price,” said MacDonald.

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Can’t live with them, can’t live without them: The age of fossil-fuel abundance is dead

Can’t live with them, can’t live without them: The age of fossil-fuel abundance is dead

Dwindling investment in oil, gas and coal mean high prices are here to stay


For much of the past half-decade, the operative word in the energy sector was “abundance”. An industry that had long sought to ration the production of fossil fuels to keep prices high suddenly found itself swamped with oversupply, as America’s shale boom lowered the price of oil around the world and clean-energy sources, such as wind and solar, competed with other fuels used for power generation, such as coal and natural gas.
Listen to this story

In recent weeks, however, it is a shortage of energy, rather than an abundance of it, that has caught the world’s attention. On the surface, its manifestations are mostly unconnected. Britain’s miffed motorists are suffering from a shortage of lorry drivers to deliver petrol. Power cuts in parts of China partly stem from the country’s attempts to curb emissions. Dwindling coal stocks at power stations in India are linked to a surge in the price of imports of the commodity.

Yet an underlying factor is expected to worsen the scarcity in the next few years: a slump in investment in oil wells, natural-gas hubs and coal mines. This is partly a hangover from the period of abundance, with years of overinvestment giving rise to more capital discipline. It is also the result of growing pressures to decarbonise. This year the investment shortfall is one of the main reasons prices of all three energy commodities have soared. European gas prices, though volatile, were near record highs as The Economist went to press. Oil crossed $81 a barrel after the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (opec), and producers such as Russia who are part of the opec+ alliance, resisted calls to raise output at a meeting on October 4th.

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Life After Fossil Fuels | Alice Friedemann

Life After Fossil Fuels | Alice Friedemann

And why the climate change conversation isn’t helping

A post-carbon world could be our opportunity to so better—and make the difficult transition much harder to swallow.

That’s the message of Alice Friedemann on this week’s episode, author of When Trucks Stop Running: Energy and the Future of Transportation. The transition is coming, perhaps collapse is coming, and if the world as we know it is going to change we might as well make the most of it. She worries we won’t be given the opportunity due to all the misinformation flying around, and gives a cutting analysis of how the climate change conversation is distracting from many other dangerous, concurrent such as biodiversity loss and water scarcity.

* * * * *

For Alice, the big problem is the energy crisis. She explains how oil prices can precipitate nation state collapse, with high oil prices driving 11 of the past 12 recessions.

This is a phenomenally interesting interview, which also manages to be a lot of fun, despite the topics! Listen here on catch it on on Apple or Spotify.

Visit Alice’s website Energy Skeptic and get your hands on a copy of When Trucks Stop Running: Energy and the Future of Transportation.

How to keep gasoline prices low by bombing your gas station

How to keep gasoline prices low by bombing your gas station

An Italian fighter plane (note the “fasci” symbols on the wings) shot down in England in November 1940 during the bombing campaign mounted by the Italian Air Force during WW2 (source). Sending obsolete biplanes with open cockpits against the modern British Spitfires is one of the most glaring examples of military incompetence in history. Among other things, this old tragedy may give us hints about the current situation in the world and, in particular, why the consumers of fossil fuels tend to bomb their suppliers. 

Not everyone in Europe has understood exactly what is happening with gas prices, yet, but the consequences could be heavy. For a brief moment, prices rose of a factor ten over what was considered as “normal.” Then, prices subsided, but still remain way higher than before. That is directly reflected on electricity prices and that is not only traumatic for consumers, but also on the competitivity of the European industry.So, what’s happening? As usual, interpretations are flying free in the memesphere: those evil Russians, the conspiracy of the Americans, it is all a fault of those ugly Greens who don’t want nuclear energy, the financial lobby conspiring against the people, etcetera.

Let me try an approach a little different. Let me compare the current situation with that of the 1930s in Europe. Back then, fossil fuels were already fundamental for the functioning of the economy, but coal was the truly critical resource: not for nothing it was called “King Coal.”

The coal revolution had started to appear in Europe in the 19th century. Those countries that had large coal reserves England, Germany, and France, could start their industrial revolution…

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On Fossil Fuel Subsidies, the Facts Matter

On Fossil Fuel Subsidies, the Facts Matter

The BC Green leader responds to the energy minister’s Tyee op-ed on provincial subsidies.

In his Tyee op-ed on Monday titled “Let’s Talk Fossil Fuel Subsidies in BC,” Bruce Ralston, the provincial minister for energy, mines and low-carbon innovation, tried to distract from his government’s continued support for fossil fuel extraction.

In particular, he raised an issue over the numbers in a report from Stand.earth, which he says lumped together the fossil fuel industry’s exemptions with exemptions that regular British Columbians get on hydroelectricity.

He then used this to create a straw man argument about the BC Greens, suggesting that because we cited the Stand.earth report, we therefore consider PST exemptions for residential users a fossil fuel subsidy. This is, to say the least, a stretch.

In the appendix attached to Ralston’s article, it is pointed out by Stand.earth that “Note: does not provide a delineation between different fuel sources.” And so yes, some portion of those figures included PST exemptions for residential users of hydro power, and some included PST exemptions for residential users of natural gas. Because the government does not provide disaggregated data that shows how much goes to each, neither Stand.earth nor the public knows what the exact breakdown is.

Should those figures have been lumped in with the hundreds of millions of dollars that the provincial government gives away each year in fossil fuel subsidies? No, the PST exemption British Columbians enjoy on their hydro bill is not a fossil fuel subsidy.

But this does not change the fact that the BC NDP government is subsidizing the fossil fuel industry and has increased them beyond what the BC Liberals gave…

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The Energy Transition Will Be Impossible Without Fossil Fuels

The Energy Transition Will Be Impossible Without Fossil Fuels

  • OPEC members and other participants of ADIPEC2021 are calling on governments and international institutions to be realistic about the global energy transition
  • While countries like the UAE and Saudi Arabia are ready to embrace the energy transition, they argue that nations need to accept the role of fossil fuels in the global energy mix
  • African energy nations, in particular, have supported this message, claiming that they will be left behind if funding and development of their fossil fuel industries dries up

A week after COP26 came to an end, the global energy industry is now turning its focus to Abu Dhabi’s annual international oil and gas conference ADIPEC2021. A range of international oil companies, national oil companies, and oilfield service companies are convening to discuss not only the impact of the COP26 agreements but also the other challenges facing the industry.

The conference, considered one of the most important events of the year for the sector, will have to deal with a wave of criticism and negative attention from the media, Western governments, and activist shareholders. At the same time, the call for realism and transparency regarding the energy transition and climate change actions is growing. During the opening speech of ADIPEC2021, ADNOC’s CEO Sultan Al Jaber frankly addressed critical points that will be on the table over the next decade. Al Jaber highlighted the issues faced by the industry in his opening statement: “we meet at a historic moment. The global community has just concluded COP26… and, on balance, it was a success. Yet, current energy dynamics have revealed a basic dilemma. While the world has agreed to accelerate the energy transition… it is still heavily reliant on oil and gas“.

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How Much of the Worsening Energy Crisis is Due to Depletion?

How Much of the Worsening Energy Crisis is Due to Depletion?

 

To keep fossil carbon out of the air, just stop pulling it out of the Earth

To keep fossil carbon out of the air, just stop pulling it out of the Earth

Nakate chided her audience for sleepwalking toward catastrophe: “We see business leaders and investors flying into COP on private jets. We see them making fancy speeches. We hear about new pledges and promises. … I have come here to tell you that we don’t believe you.” She added, “I am here to say, prove us wrong.”

Throughout the summit, people of all ages and backgrounds had rallied in the streets outside to demand effective climate action, climate justice, an end to exploitation and other policies through which the world’s governments might prove Nakate wrong.

On Nov. 5, more than 8,000 children, teenagers, parents and teachers marched through the city, calling on the generation now in power not to ruin the future for generations who follow. The next day, a surge of more than 100,000 climate marchers demanded an end to fossil fuel investments, a global conversion to renewable energy financed by wealthy countries and reparations for Indigenous communities.

Tuntiak Katan, a member of the Shuar nation in Ecuador, reminded reporters that “Indigenous peoples already protect 950 million hectares of land worldwide.” Affluent nations, he said, must “abandon extractivism and get the oil, mining and agribusiness companies out of our territories, and apply a holistic vision, combined with the vision of the Indigenous peoples.”

The Glasgow marchers’ goals were both necessary and achievable, but they knew all too well that fossilized COP summits have failed the world 25 times since 1995, and COP26 would be no different.

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Bright Green Lies

Bright Green Lies

 

 

To keep fossil carbon out of the air, just stop pulling it out of the Earth

To keep fossil carbon out of the air, just stop pulling it out of the Earth

Expectations for the COP26 climate summit were always low. They had dimmed even further by the time the prominent climate activist Vanessa Nakate of Uganda spoke from the main stage on the Glasgow conference’s next-to-last day.

Nakate chided her audience for sleepwalking toward catastrophe: “We see business leaders and investors flying into COP on private jets. We see them making fancy speeches. We hear about new pledges and promises. … I have come here to tell you that we don’t believe you.” She added, “I am here to say, prove us wrong.”

Throughout the summit, people of all ages and backgrounds had rallied in the streets outside to demand effective climate action, climate justice, an end to exploitation and other policies through which the world’s governments might prove Nakate wrong.

On Nov. 5, more than 8,000 children, teenagers, parents and teachers marched through the city, calling on the generation now in power not to ruin the future for generations who follow. The next day, a surge of more than 100,000 climate marchers demanded an end to fossil fuel investments, a global conversion to renewable energy financed by wealthy countries and reparations for Indigenous communities.

Tuntiak Katan, a member of the Shuar nation in Ecuador, reminded reporters that “Indigenous peoples already protect 950 million hectares of land worldwide.” Affluent nations, he said, must “abandon extractivism and get the oil, mining and agribusiness companies out of our territories, and apply a holistic vision, combined with the vision of the Indigenous peoples.”

The Glasgow marchers’ goals were both necessary and achievable, but they knew all too well that fossilized COP summits have failed the world 25 times since 1995, and COP26 would be no different.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Olduvai IV: Courage
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Olduvai II: Exodus
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