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The Big Myth

Don Watkins of the Ayn Rand Institute wrote an article, The Myth of Banking Deregulation, to debunk a lie. The lie is that bank regulation is good. That it helped stabilize the economy in the 1930’s. And that deregulation at the end of the century destabilized the economy and caused the crisis of 2008.
As of early 2015, Dodd-Frank had imposed altogether 27,670 new restrictions, more than all other laws passed under Obama combined (that is really saying something, considering the regulatory frenzy let loose by his administration. Note: the law may have “only” 2,300 pages, but more than 10 different regulatory agencies have been producing administrative laws for six years in a row to put it into practice – and they are not finished yet. Don’t you feel safer already?

If deregulation is the problem, then re-regulation is the solution. So, in the wake of the crisis, Congress enacted a 2,300-page monstrosity of regulation known as Dodd-Frank.

 

Watkins does a good job describing government regulation of finance, in particular addressing the savings and loan industry. He gives an example where people commonly assume that Congress reduced regulation, the Graham-Leach-Bliley Act of 1999.

The headline is that this law reduced regulation, and allowed banks to be in the securities business. However, the truth is that it mixed in a dollop of increased regulation.

 

The economic cost of Dodd-Frank (one guess as to who is going to end up paying for this…). Note: this is not cumulative – the cumulative tally so far is a cost of $36 billion (about $310 per household!); it has so far taken 74.8 million paperwork man hours to create this monster. You will be happy to learn that the law not only makes us perfectly safe, but introduces racial and gender quotas as well. The number of final rules exceeds those generated by Sarbanes-Oxley by a factor of 30 – so far.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Is an Inflation Comeback in the Works?

LOVINGSTON, VIRGINIA – Amid all the sound and fury of the Trump news cycle, hardly anyone noticed. There is a specter haunting this economy. It is the specter of inflation…

See, if you want to whip inflation now, you don’t need to do any of the really difficult things, such as printing less money… or God forbid, return to honest, market-chosen money (shudder!). All you need is intelligent nutrition!     Image credit: Marshall Astor

Bloomberg has the report:

The U.S. cost of living increased in January by the most since February 2013, led by higher costs for gasoline and other goods and services that indicate inflation is gathering momentum. The consumer-price index rose a larger-than-forecast 0.6% after a 0.3% gain in December, Labor Department figures showed Wednesday. Compared with the same month last year, costs paid by Americans for goods and services rose 2.5%, the most since March 2012.

French investment bank Natixis makes a related observation:

The return of inflation in the euro zone with the rise in the oil price will drive the European Central Bank to give up QE […] Our estimate is that an end to QE would raise interest rates by 110 basis points. 

Wait – inflation is what the Fed has been looking for. And the latest numbers reveal it may have already reached the Fed’s target of 2%. If you’ll recall, the Fed set itself two targets: Unemployment would have to fall below 5%. And inflation would have to rise above 2%. Reaching those two targets would prove that the economy was healthy enough to allow the Fed to raise rates.

Higher rates of inflation – higher prices – signal more consumer demand. And more labor demand, too. It suggests there are more people with more money ready to spend it. How could that ever be a bad thing?

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Futility of Predictions

Back in late 2013 I wrote a piece on human nature which was in part inspired by the bullish exuberance exhibited by a MarketWatch article predicting the DJIA at 20,000 in the near term future. Yesterday afternoon, a bit over three years later, that prediction actually became reality and I’m sure the author of that article as well as many other like minded traders popped some champagne in celebration of their awesome ability to predict the future.

A trader from the (near) future.     Image via tumblr.com

Now don’t get me wrong, I’m happy for those guys and for the Dow Jones. Assuming of course that everyone involved actually put their money where their mouth was back then – which ever few do. And that in essence was the underlying message of my post.

In yesterday’s update I briefly touched on hindsight bias and how we all have a knack for bending the past in our respective favor. Nobody wants to look stupid after all. And in hindsight, all of us would have liked to have bought the S&P 500 at 667 in 2008 and then traded it all the way up to just below 2300 today.

Except of course that we didn’t (please raise your hand if you did). And that is quite a humbling lesson to learn in our ongoing quest to obtain riches from market participants who happen to disagree with us. It’s not that we didn’t foresee this event, actually many people probably did.

It is about how difficult it is to actually translate such information or ideas into profits. Back in 2008, as well as in 2013, there was no way of truly knowing where the DJIA or the S&P 500 would be trading all those years later. So what makes anyone think they know what the future holds – today?

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

India – On a Downward Spiral

India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced on 8th  November 2016 that Rs 500 (~$7.50) and Rs 1,000 (~$15) banknotes would no longer be legal tender.

Sadly, the despondency visible in the old man’s facial expression has become a widespread phenomenon since the currency ban, particularly among India’s poor     Photo credit: Aayush Goel

Here are links to Part-IPart-IIPart-IIIPart-IVPart-VPart-VIPart-VII, and Part-VIII, which not only provide updates on the demonetization saga, but explore and dissect India’s culture and why in this country of 1.34 billion — more than 1 out of every 6 human beings on the planet — so many exist in wretched poverty in this modern age, in an insect-like existence.

People storming a bank. If this is not an insect-like existence, what is it?

Oppression, exploitation, extreme stress, and the resulting millions of untimely deaths every year possibly make the story of the post-independent India one of the biggest crimes against humanity. Alas,it is getting worse.

As I explored in earlier updates, Indian institutions were designed to be run by the British. With them no longer at the helm, these institutions have mutated over the last 70 years to accommodate the underlying irrationality, tribalism, and superstitions of India. They have slowly but surely crumbled away, decaying and becoming degraded.

Indian democracy today is simply mob rule, its educational system little but propaganda, and its citizens are mere cogs in the service of the State. Indian institutions, including the Supreme Court, are far from independent. They are yes-men to India’s prime minister, the demagogue Narendra Modi.

India never properly assimilated the concepts of reason, liberty or individuality. When these concepts were offered by Europeans free of cost on a plate, Indians completely failed to take notice them. All they saw and copied was the facade of western lifestyle: clothing, music, cinema, food, etc.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Money Creation and the Boom-Bust Cycle

In his various writings, Murray Rothbard argued that in a free market economy that operates on a gold standard, the creation of credit that is not fully backed up by gold (fractional-reserve banking) sets in motion the menace of the boom-bust cycle. In his The Case for 100 Percent Gold Dollar Rothbard wrote:

I therefore advocate as the soundest monetary system and the only one fully compatible with the free market and with the absence of force or fraud from any source a 100 percent gold standard. This is the only system compatible with the fullest preservation of the rights of property. It is the only system that assures the end of inflation and, with it, of the business cycle. (1)

Murray Rothbard was convinced that we should return to a sound monetary system based on the market-chosen money commodity gold. Note that the use of gold as money as such cannot keep banks from issuing fiduciary media (a.k.a. uncovered money substitutes). The important thing is therefore that the monetary and banking system are free. A free banking system will develop along sound lines of its own accord, not least because banks have to continually clear transactions between each other and will tend to shun overextended lenders. A free market monetary/ banking system would likely be different from today’s system in numerous aspects, but it would be just as sophisticated and efficient. Most importantly, it would be economically sound and the likelihood that severe business cycles emerge would be vastly lower. Photo via mises.org

Some economists such as George Selgin and Lawrence White have contested this view. In his article in The Independent Review George Selgin argued that it is not true that fractional-reserve banking must always set in motion the menace of the boom-bust cycle. According to Selgin:

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Modi’s Great Leap Forward

India’s Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, announced on 8th November 2016 that Rs 500 (~$7.50) and Rs 1,000 (~$15) banknotes would no longer be legal tender. Linked are Part-IPart-IIPart-IIIPart-IVPart-VPart-VI and Part-VII, which provide updates on the demonetization saga and how Modi is acting as a catalyst to hasten the rapid degradation of India and what remains of its institutions.

India’s Pride and Joy

Indians are celebrating that their economy has surpassed that of India’s former colonial master, the UK.

So-called educated Indians have latched on to the above visual, with full support of the Indian government. It has been shared far and wide in the national media. When you remind them that India’s population is twenty-one times that of the UK and on top of that, the British pound has taken a huge pounding because of Brexit and associated fear in the financial markets, expect to be ignored. You will be seen as anti-Indian.

Given the underlying irrationality and tribalism of India (read earlier updates for more on this), selected numbers are used to rationalize feelings and emotions. You see this everywhere in India: Science — very ironically — is used as a tool to rationalize superstitions and irrationalities.

Who needs reality when we can exist in illusions? But even this illusion—that India has superseded the UK — might disappear once the reality of India’s demonetization sinks in and the rupee falls, which it likely will once the international media recognize that Modi went for demonetization not to reduce corruption, but to transform India into a police state.

Modi’s interest was to increase tax collection, for the sake of tax collection, an approach in which rulers start to see themselves as all that matters, where citizens come to be seen as mere cogs in the service of the state.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Fake News? It’s All Fake!

Life is one long struggle in the dark.

– Lucretius

BALTIMORE – In January of this year, the Empire Herald reported that a “meth-addled couple” had eaten a homeless man in New York City’s Central Park. Later, Now8News reported that a can of cookie dough had “exploded in a woman’s vagina”; the woman was alleged to be shoplifting.

The fellows depicted above certainly mesh perfectly with the image of meth-addled cannibals conjured by our imagination… A few interesting questions regarding this event remain unanswered to this day. Did they marinate their meal? Fill it with stuffing? What were their wine and salad choices? Was their dinner roasted on a spit, cooked in a jungle wok the traditional way, or were these pale gourmets connoisseurs of wino tartare?

Tueasday’s big news: Russia’s ambassador to Turkey was shot and killed. The assailant looked a lot like a 21st-century version of Gavrilo Princip, who lit the fuse for World War I by assassinating Archduke Franz Ferdinand, heir to the Austro-Hungarian throne, in Bosnia. By the time it was over, 16 million people were dead…

An Associated Press photographer at the scene reports this man shot Andrei Karlov, the Russian ambassador to Turkey, at a photo gallery in Ankara on Monday.The assassin and his victim, Andrei Karlov, Russia’s ambassador to Turkey. While making the Travolta-like dance move caught in the photograph above, the assassin shouted “Allahu-akbar! Don’t forget Syria! Don’t forget Aleppo!”. Not a “moderate” rebel we would guess, but rather a sympathizer of assorted head-choppers. The assassination was photographed by several people and most of the pictures look like stills from a Hollywood movie. This gives the incident quite a surreal quality. It is as if it was staged specifically for the the evening news. No unfocused shaky-cam stuff forcing you to squint if you want to see something – these days, we get our daily snuff in high definition! Obviously, modern audiences demand and deserve certain quality standards.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

US True Money Supply Growth Jumps, Part 1: A Shift in Liabilities

The growth rates of various “Austrian” measures of the US money supply (such as TMS-2 and money AMS) have accelerated significantly in recent months.  That is quite surprising, as the Fed hasn’t been engaged in QE for quite some time and year-on-year growth in commercial bank credit has actually slowed down rather than accelerating of late. The only exception to this is mortgage lending growth – at least until recently. Growth in mortgage loans is still very slow though, especially compared to historical growth rates. It cannot really account for the recent surge in money supply growth either.

1-tms-2-and-total-loans-and-leases-y-y-changeYear-on-year growth rates of TMS-2 (11.19%, black line) and total loans and leases at commercial banks (7.7%, red line) as of October. In absolute terms money TMS-2 has soared by a staggering $840 billion since the beginning of the year – click to enlarge.

Usually lending by commercial banks will tend to lead growth in the broad true money supply, but this lead-lag relationship has become a lot less straightforward after the 2008 financial crisis (in fact, it actually reversed for a while). As a result of the Fed’s heavy debt monetization activities, the pace of money supply growth is nowadays influenced directly by two major sources.

Prior to the crisis, the Fed would mainly affect commercial bank lending growth by setting overnight interbank lending rates (i.e., the federal funds rate) and maintaining its rate target by supplying or occasionally draining reserves. QE by contrast creates new deposit money directly (as well as bank reserves to the same extent)which adds to the fiduciary media commercial banks conjure into being by means of fractionally reserved lending. QE has fundamentally altered the way the system functions – this remains the case even now, with the Fed’s QE type activities reduced to reinvesting the proceeds from maturing bonds.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Gold Price Skyrockets in India after Currency Ban – Part IV

The Indian Prime Minister announced on 8th November 2016 that Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 banknotes would no longer be legal tender. Linked are Part-IPart-II and Part-III updates on the rapidly encroaching police state.

The economic and social mess that Modi has created is unprecedented. It will go down in history as an epitome of naivety and arrogance due to Modi’s self-centered desire to increase tax-collection at any cost.

shopIndian jewelry merchant   Photo via indiatimes.com

Fear has gripped the bullion market, for one is deemed to be guilty until proven otherwise. People with perfectly legal cash are afraid of cameras recording their purchases and having to pay outrageous bribes. After an adjustment period people will buy more — not less — gold. For now, the gold market has gone mostly underground with the gold price hovering around US$1,700 per ounce. Did Modi want to boost the informal economy?

The Cultural and Political Undercurrent

The individual has been reduced to a cog in a big machine that exists in Modi’s imagination. The country is expected to rally behind him, for his glory.  The IMF is going along with Modi, for in their simplistic view, enforcing western-style institutions on India will lead to the replication of western economic development and the rule of law in India.

Not that increasingly totalitarian and centralized governing institutions work even in the West, but in the alien culture— irrational and tribal — of India, they rapidly mutate and become very corrupt. That is, unless such institutions are run by Europeans. But the days when Britain ruled India are over.

In the irrational and extremely tribal society of India, where calculation and planning are much more difficult, institutions must be much more decentralized than in the West if they are to function properly. At the moment Modi is doing the exact opposite: rapidly increasing his centralized control.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Gold Price Skyrockets in India after Currency Ban

As I write this in the morning of 9th November 2016, there are huge lines forming outside gold shops in India — and gold traded heavily until late into the night yesterday. Depending on who you ask, the retail price of gold has gone up between 15% and 20% within the last 10 hours.

img-20161109-wa0003Gold quotes in India – gold traded for as much as Rs 49,000 per 10 grams or US$ 2,294 per ounce

At some places, it was sold for as much as US$ 2,294 per ounce. That is, if you can actually find physical gold — gold inventories at stores are rapidly depleting. All of this happened well before the international price started to move up because of the election results coming out of the US.

Last night (8th November 2016), India’s government banned the use of Rs 500 (~$7.50) and Rs 1,000 ($15) banknotes. This pretty much made most currency-in-use illegal. Banks and ATMs are closed today. The government believes that doing this will help eradicate corruption and push counterfeit money out of circulation. According to the Indian government, the counterfeit money tends to come from Pakistan and helps finance terrorism.

My first instinct when I heard the news was that people would be on the streets this morning. There would be riots and the Indian Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, would be unceremoniously thrown out. Despite being a huge critic of him, I thought he at least had the spine to take bold action, however erroneous it might have been.

I am sometimes too optimistic about India and expect too much goodness from Indians. And I was wrong.

In the morning no opposition against the government was in sight. But there was some animosity detectable between people.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Impoverished by Too Much Money

BALTIMORE – “It’s over!” Raúl Ilargi Meijer, a regular contributor to David Stockman’s Contra Corner newsletter, explains that the “entire model our societies have been based on for at least as long as we ourselves have lived is over!

1-defaults-by-regionGlobal corporate defaults are at the highest level since the peak of the financial crisis – click to enlarge.

Meijer again:

“That’s why there’s Trump. There is no growth. There hasn’t been any real growth for years. All there is left are empty, hollow, sunshiny S&P 500 stock market numbers propped up with ultra-cheap debt and buybacks, and employment figures that hide untold millions hiding from the labor force. And most of all, there’s debt, public as well as private, that has served to keep an illusion of growth alive and now increasingly no longer can.

These false growth numbers have one purpose only: for the public to keep the incumbent powers that be in their plush seats. But they could always ever only pull the curtain of [The Wizard of] Oz over people’s eyes for so long, and it’s no longer so long. That’s what the ascent of Trump means, and Brexit, Le Pen, and all the others. It’s over. What has driven us for all our lives has lost both its direction and its energy.”

None of this will come as a surprise for Diary regulars. We know nothing makes people poorer faster than too much “money.”

The feds provided the economy with an almost unlimited quantity of credit-based funny money. The money was phony. But it bought real resources. And then, with no need to think carefully about how the capital was put to use, the resources were wasted.

Corporate defaults are running at their fastest pace since 2009. Nine out of 10 households have lost income. And tax receipts for the last quarter fell from the same quarter in 2015.

2-baltic-dry

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Doomed to Failure

We’ve been waiting for the U.S. economy to reach escape velocity for the last six years.  What we mean is we’ve been waiting for the economy to finally become self-stimulating and no longer require monetary or fiscal stimulus to keep it from stalling out.  Unfortunately, this may not be possible the way things are going.

fischersAs Milton Jones once revealed: “A month before he died, my grandfather covered his back in lard. After that, he went downhill quickly” (his other grandfather drowned in a bowl of cheerios). A similar fate may await the larded up US economy.

In short, the U.S. economy may never reach “escape velocity” unless it is first allowed to crash.  It has been too larded up and larded over with debt for any real sustainable growth to take root.  More evidence, to this effect, was revealed this week.

For example, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) anticipates the U.S. economy will expand by just 1.6 percent this year.  That’s about one percent less than last year’s estimated growth.  In other words, the rate of economic growth in the United States isn’t increasing; rather, it’s decreasing.

According to the IMF, “the slower-than-expected activity comes out of the ongoing oil industry slump, depressed business investment and a persistent surplus in business inventories.”  Could this be the twilight of the weakest economic recovery in the post-World War II era?  Only time will tell, for sure.

But anyone with an ear to the ground and a nose to the grindstone knows the answer to that question.  Business ain’t booming.  Moreover, it has become near impossible for corporations to grow their earnings.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Great Causes, a Sea of Debt and the 2017 Recession

NORMANDY, FRANCE – We continue our work with the bomb squad. Myth disposal is dangerous work: People love their myths more than they love life itself. They may kill for money. But they die for their religions, their governments, their clans… and their ideas.

voltaireFamous French hippie and author Voltaire. He wears the same sardonic grin in every painting, whether he’s depicted at a young or an old age, doesn’t matter. His real name was François-Marie Arouet; he adopted the pen name Voltaire (one of 178 different ones he used) after spending 11 months incarcerated in a windowless cell in the Bastille, following the publication of a satirical verse in which he insinuated that the French regent practiced incest with his own daughter. Said regent was the infamous Duc d’Orleans, who shortly thereafter conspired with John Law to utterly ruin the country’s currency and economy in an early central banking experiment. Voltaire’s decision to insult him in advance reveals his excellent foresight and character judgment. The aristocracy was never sure whether it should fear Voltaire for his anti-authoritarian streak, or love him for his wit.

Some people think that even an idea as abstract as “freedom of speech” is worth dying for. It was Voltaire who said: “I disapprove of what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it.

Most people jump onboard the train of a Great Cause with enthusiasm and conviction. But many have the good sense to hop off quietly before their lives are in real danger. We suspect that Mr. Voltaire would have done the same.

That’s why the deadliest myths are those that you can ride along with at no personal risk. Foreign wars, for example, are always a favorite.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Why the Fed Destroyed the Market Economy

What Have You Done for Me Lately?

Swing voters are a fickle bunch.  One election they vote Democrat.  The next they vote Republican. For they have no particular ideology or political philosophy to base their judgment upon.

swing-voterThe primacy of the wallet.

They don’t give a rip about questions of small government or big government.  Nor do they have any druthers about the welfare or warfare state.

In effect, they really don’t care.  What’s important to the swing voter is much simpler.  In fact, it can be boiled down to the following essential question.  What have you done for me lately?

The answer to this question, of course, comes back to money.  As far as the swing voter’s concerned, if their brokerage account’s growing they vote the incumbent party.  If it’s shrinking, they vote the challenger party.

It doesn’t matter if the source of the stock market inflation is a fraud.  Nor does it matter that a stock market correction will help reestablish financial markets on a firmer foundation.

In this respect, the mere trajectory of the swing voter’s portfolio tells them everything they need to know about whom to vote for.

Truth and Denial

Earlier this week Republican Presidential Candidate Donald Trump took issue with the Federal Reserve’s stock market inflation games.

He remarked on CNBC that the Fed has created a “false stock market,” and that Fed Chair Janet Yellen and central bank policymakers are very political, and should be “ashamed” of what they’re doing to the country, “The Fed is not even close to being independent.

Certainly, the idea that the Federal Reserve influences elections is not a novel concept.  For this reason, at the recent central banker’s summit in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, former Democrat Congressman, and overall repulsive being, Barney Frank, told the Fed, “Don’t raise rates before election.

cartoon-my-impact-alg-600…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Cash Bans and the Next Crisis

Money sometimes goes “full politics”. Take poor Kenneth Rogoff at Harvard. He wants a dollar with a voter registration card, a U.S. flag on its windshield, and a handgun in its belt – the kind of money that supports the Establishment and votes for Hillary.

Kenneth Rogoff, professor of economics at Harvard University, participates in a session on the third day of the World Economic Forum (WEF) Annual Meeting 2011 in Davos, Switzerland, on Friday, Jan. 28, 2011. The World Economic Forum in Davos will be attended by a record number of chief executive officers, with a total of 2,500 delegates attending the five-day meeting.Etatiste tool Kenneth Rogoff, whose authoritarian jeremiads against cash currency we have first discussed and criticized in 2014 in “Meet Kenneth Rogoff, Unreconstructed Statist”. As Hans-Hermann Hoppe once noted: [I]ntellectuals are now typically public employees, even if they work for nominally private institutions or foundations. Almost completely protected from the vagaries of consumer demand (“tenured”), their number has dramatically increased and their compensation is on average far above their genuine market value. At the same time the quality of their intellectual output has constantly fallen. What you will discover is mostly irrelevance and incomprehensibility. Worse, insofar as today’s intellectual output is at all relevant and comprehensible, it is viciously statist.” 

Photo credit:  Andrew Harrer / Bloomberg

Writing last month in the Wall Street Journal under the headline “The Sinister Side of Cash”, he noted that:

“Paper currency, especially large notes such as the U.S. $100 bill, facilitate crime: racketeering, extortion, money laundering, drug and human trafficking, the corruption of public officials, not to mention terrorism.”

Of course, large notes do make it easier for criminals to operate. Like cellphones. And sunglasses. And automobiles with air-conditioning. But that’s what money is supposed to do: make it easier for an economy to function. You use it as you please.

Yes, dear reader, we are back to our regular beat. Money. But what’s this? Finally, we’re beginning to see some action. You’ll recall that the markets have been eerily quiet –  with less movement in stocks than we’ve seen in the last 100 years. What gives?

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Olduvai IV: Courage
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Olduvai II: Exodus
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