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$50 Oil Doesn’t Work
$50 Oil Doesn’t Work $50 per barrel oil is clearly less impossible to live with than $30 per barrel oil, because most businesses cannot make a profit with $30 per barrel oil. But is $50 per barrel oil helpful? I would argue that it really is not. When oil was over $100 per barrel, human beings […]
The real oil limits story; what other researchers missed
The real oil limits story; what other researchers missed For a long time, a common assumption has been that the world will eventually “run out” of oil and other non-renewable resources. Instead, we seem to be running into surpluses and low prices. What is going on that was missed by M. King Hubbert, Harold Hotelling, and by […]
US 2015 Oil Production and Future Oil Prices
US 2015 Oil Production and Future Oil Prices Oil production can be confusing because there are various “pieces” that may or may not be included. In this analysis, I look at oil production of the United States broadly (including crude oil, natural gas plant liquids, and biofuels), because this is the way oil consumption is defined. I […]
Why we have a wage inequality problem
Why we have a wage inequality problem Wage inequality is a topic in elections around the world. What can be done to provide more income for those without jobs, and those with low wages? Wage inequality is really a sign of a deeper problem; basically it reflects an economic system that is not growing rapidly enough […]
Our economic growth system is reaching limits in a strange way
Our economic growth system is reaching limits in a strange way Economic growth never seems to be as high as those making forecasts would like it to be. This is a record of recent forecasts by the International Monetary Fund: Figure 1. World GDP Forecasts by the International Monetary Fund. Figure 2 shows world economic growth […]
Why oil under $30 per barrel is a major problem
Why oil under $30 per barrel is a major problem A person often reads that low oil prices–for example, $30 per barrel oil prices–will stimulate the economy, and the economy will soon bounce back. What is wrong with this story? A lot of things, as I see it: Oil producers can’t really produce oil for $30 […]
2016: Oil Limits and the End of the Debt Supercycle
2016: Oil Limits and the End of the Debt Supercycle What is ahead for 2016? Most people don’t realize how tightly the following are linked: Growth in debt Growth in the economy Growth in cheap-to-extract energy supplies Inflation in the cost of producing commodities Growth in asset prices, such as the price of shares of stock […]
Why “supply and demand” doesn’t work for oil
Why “supply and demand” doesn’t work for oil The traditional understanding of supply and demand works in some limited cases–will a manufacturer make red dresses or blue dresses? The manufacturer’s choice doesn’t make much difference to the economic system as a whole, except perhaps in the amount of red and blue dye sold, so it is […]
Our Electricity Problem: Getting the Diagnosis Correct
Our Electricity Problem: Getting the Diagnosis Correct What is really wrong with our energy system, particularly as it relates to electricity and natural gas? Are there any mitigations available? I have been asked to give a talk at an Electricity/Natural Gas conference that includes both producers and industrial users of electricity and natural gas. In this […]
Low Oil Prices – Why Worry?
Low Oil Prices – Why Worry? Most people believe that low oil prices are good for the United States, since the discretionary income of consumers will rise. There is the added benefit that Peak Oil must be far off in the distance, since “Peak Oilers” talked about high oil prices. Thus, low oil prices are viewed […]
How our energy problem leads to a debt collapse problem
How our energy problem leads to a debt collapse problem Usually, we don’t stop to think about how the whole economy works together. A major reason is that we have been lacking data to see long-term relationships. In this post, I show some longer-term time series relating to energy growth, GDP growth, and debt growth–going back […]
BP Data Suggests We Are Reaching Peak Energy Demand
BP Data Suggests We Are Reaching Peak Energy Demand Some people talk about peak energy (or oil) supply. They expect high prices and more demand than supply. Other people talk about energy demand hitting a peak many years from now, perhaps when most of us have electric cars. Neither of these views is correct. The real situation […]
Why EIA, IEA, and BP Oil Forecasts are Too High
Why EIA, IEA, and BP Oil Forecasts are Too High When forecasting how much oil will be available in future years, a standard approach seems to be the following: Figure out how much GDP growth the researcher hopes to have in the future. “Work backward” to see how much oil is needed, based on how much […]
The oil glut and low prices reflect an affordability problem
The oil glut and low prices reflect an affordability problem For a long time, there has been a belief that the decline in oil supply will come by way of high oil prices. Demand will exceed supply. It seems to me that this view is backward–the decline in supply will come through low oil prices. The […]
