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The Empire of Uncertainty
The Empire of Uncertainty Anyone claiming they can project the trajectory of the U.S. and global economy is deluding themselves. Normalcy depends entirely on everyday life being predictable. To be predictable, life must be stable, which means that there is a high level of certainty in every aspect of life. The world has entered an era […]
“Inflation” and America’s Accelerating Class War
“Inflation” and America’s Accelerating Class War Those who don’t see the fragmentation, the scarcities and the battlelines being drawn will be surprised by the acceleration of the unraveling. I recently came across the idea that inflation is a two-factor optimization problem: inflation is necessary for the macro-economy (or so we’re told) and so the trick for policy makers […]
The Four D’s That Define the Future
The Four D’s That Define the Future When the money runs out or loses its purchasing power, all sorts of complexity that were previously viewed as essential crumble to dust. Four D’s will define 2020-2025: derealization, denormalization, decomplexification and decoherence. That’s a lot of D’s. Let’s take them one at a time. I use the word derealization to […]
This Is How It Ends: All That Is Solid Melts Into Air
This Is How It Ends: All That Is Solid Melts Into Air While the Federal Reserve and the Billionaire Class push the stock market to new highs to promote a false facade of prosperity, everyday life will fall apart. How will the status quo collapse? An open conflict–a civil war, an insurrection, a coup–appeals to our […]
Will Skilled Hands-On Labor Finally Become More Valuable?
Will Skilled Hands-On Labor Finally Become More Valuable? The sands beneath what’s scarce and what’s over-abundant are shifting. On a recent visit to the welding shop where my niece’s husband works, I asked him if they had enough welders for their workload. His answer surprised me: “If you asked every welding shop in the country if […]
Here’s Why the “Impossible” Economic Collapse Is Unavoidable
Here’s Why the “Impossible” Economic Collapse Is Unavoidable This is why denormalization is an extinction event for much of our high-cost, high-complexity, heavily regulated economy. A collapse of major chunks of the economy is widely viewed as “impossible” because the federal government can borrow and spend unlimited amounts of money because the Federal Reserve can create […]
Memo from Insiders: Dear Bagholders, Thanks for Buying Our Shares at the Top
Memo from Insiders: Dear Bagholders, Thanks for Buying Our Shares at the Top The self-sustaining recovery is a fantasy that’s evaporated. What looks like a powerful, can’t-lose rally to newbies is recognized as distribution by old hands. In low-volume markets (as in the past few months), insiders holding large positions can’t dump all their shares at once or […]
Why the Unraveling Will Accelerate
Why the Unraveling Will Accelerate Sclerotic, hidebound institutions optimized for linear stability and permanent growth are simply not designed to adapt to non-linear change and disruption of permanent growth. Since the first news of pandemic in late January, I’ve been discussing potential accelerants to the unraveling of our fragile financial system: second-order effects (initial travel restrictions and layoffs were first-order […]
Introducing the “Everything Bubble” Sentiment-o-Meter
Introducing the “Everything Bubble” Sentiment-o-Meter Since human wetware remains stuck in OS1.01, we can predict a remarkable reversal. The “Everything Bubble” has been a sight to behold. With central banks providing trillions to the big players and margin debt enabling small punters to leverage up, the hot money rotation has been a real merry-go-round as one asset and […]
Welcome to the Crazed, Frantic Demise of Finance Capitalism
Welcome to the Crazed, Frantic Demise of Finance Capitalism The cognitive dissonance required to ignore the widening gap between the real economy and the fraud’s basic machinery–speculation funded by “money” conjured out of thin air–has reached a level of denial that can only be termed psychotic. When scams start unraveling, the scammers become increasingly frantic […]
This Is a Financial Extinction Event
This Is a Financial Extinction Event The lower reaches of the financial food chain are already dying, and every entity that depended on that layer is doomed. Though under pressure from climate change, the dinosaurs were still dominant 65 million year ago–until the meteor struck, creating a global “nuclear winter” that darkened the atmosphere for months, […]
The Sinking Titanic’s Great Pumps Finally Fail
The Sinking Titanic’s Great Pumps Finally Fail The greater fools still partying in the first-class lounge are in denial that even the greatest, most technologically advanced ship can sink. On April 14, 1912, the liner Titanic, considered unsinkable due to its watertight compartments and other features, struck a glancing blow against a massive iceberg on that moonless, weirdly […]
The American Economy in Four Words: Neofeudal, Extortion, Decline, Collapse
The American Economy in Four Words: Neofeudal, Extortion, Decline, Collapse Our society has a legal structure of self-rule and ownership of capital, but in reality it is a Neofeudal Oligarchy. Now that the pandemic is over and the economy is roaring again–so the stock market says–we’re heading straight back up into the good old days […]
How We Got Here: the Global Economy’s 75-Year Stumble to the Precipice
How We Got Here: the Global Economy’s 75-Year Stumble to the Precipice Not only will there not be a recovery, but there can’t be a recovery, as those brittle extremes have been lost for good. How did the global economy end up teetering on a precarious financial precipice? To formulate a cogent answer, let’s take a […]
Is Data Our New False Religion?
Is Data Our New False Religion? In the false religion of data, heresy is asking for data that is not being collected because it might reveal unpalatably unprofitable realities. Here’s how every modern con starts: let’s look at the data. Every modern con starts with an earnest appeal to look at the data because the con artist has assembled […]
