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What Form Will The Great Confiscation Take — And How Can We Prepare?
What Form Will The Great Confiscation Take — And How Can We Prepare? For what seems like decades, people have been warning that the next time some over-leveraged corner of the financial system implodes, bank and brokerage accounts will be either confiscated by desperate governments or lost during the resulting chaos. Here, from 2012, is […]
2017’s Real Milestone (Or Why Interest Rates Can Never Go Back To Normal)
2017’s Real Milestone (Or Why Interest Rates Can Never Go Back To Normal) Forget about NAFTA or OPEC or TPP or crowd size or hand size or any other acronym or stat or concept that obsesses the financial press these days. Only two numbers actually matter. The first is $20 trillion, which is the level […]
The Floodgates Begin To Open
The Floodgates Begin To Open It’s now clear that what governments did to counter the Great Recession may have delayed systemic collapse, but did not resurrect the old normal. Growth around the world is anemic – which is to say debt continues to increase faster than the productive capacity to service it – and inflation […]
Unintended Consequences, Part 2: Easy Money = Overcapacity = Trade Wars
Unintended Consequences, Part 2: Easy Money = Overcapacity = Trade Wars It’s unclear what China was thinking when it was borrowed all those trillions to quadruple its capacity to make steel, cement and other basic industrial products. There’s no record of it checking in with the other countries that have such industries to see if […]
Can We Grow Out Of Our Problems If We’re Not Actually Growing?
Can We Grow Out Of Our Problems If We’re Not Actually Growing? The rationale for today’s easy money policies is pretty straightforward: Falling interest rates and rising government deficits will counteract the drag of excessive debts taken on in previous stimulus programs and asset bubbles, enabling the developed world to create wealth faster than it […]
How Stupid Do You Have To Be To Let This Happen?
How Stupid Do You Have To Be To Let This Happen? Europe is the birthplace of Western civilization and the source of most of the trends and bodies of knowledge that define modernity. The average European speaks several languages versus sometimes less than one for Americans. They are, in short, a well-schooled people with vast […]
Bad — But Better Than What’s Coming
Bad — But Better Than What’s Coming Talk about diminished expectations. This morning’s estimate of 1.4% Q4 GDP growth is being hailed as a pleasant surprise. Which is odd, considering that for most of the past century a number this low would have been seen as weak enough to require emergency action. And that’s just […]
Why We’re Ungovernable, Part 13: The Unprotected Push Back
Why We’re Ungovernable, Part 13: The Unprotected Push Back Peggy Noonan, former Reagan administration speech writer and current Wall Street Journal pundit has, like most of her peers, been wondering what’s gotten into the unwashed masses lately that makes them such unpredictable voters. And she’s come up with a useful conclusion: The rise of Donald […]
Perfect Storm!
Perfect Storm! One of the (many) fascinating things about this latest global financial crisis is that there’s no single catalyst. Unlike 2008 when the carnage could be traced back to US subprime housing, or 2000 when tech stocks crashed and pulled down everything else, this time around a whole bunch of seemingly-unrelated things are unraveling […]
This Is What Gold Does In A Currency Crisis, Canadian Edition
This Is What Gold Does In A Currency Crisis, Canadian Edition Along with the currencies of most other commodity-exporting countries, the Canadian dollar has been in near-freefall lately. Gold, meanwhile, has been sucked down with the rest of the commodities complex, falling hard since 2013. But only in US dollars. For Canadians, with their weak domestic currency, […]
As The World Rolls Over
As The World Rolls Over Brutal news is pouring in from pretty much everywhere. US retail sales are flat and wholesale prices are falling. Big retail chains are missing on earnings and seeing their shares plunge. Chinese nonperforming loans are soaring while imports, car sales and steel production are way down. Oil is flirting with […]
China Cannot Let This Happen
China Cannot Let This Happen After borrowing — and largely wasting — $15 trillion during the Great Recession, China now looks like a typical decadent developed-world country, complete with slow growth, anemic consumer spending and unstable financial markets. But it’s not France, Canada or the US, where recessions happen and voters peacefully replace one major […]
This Is Actually Going To Happen Next Year
This Is Actually Going To Happen Next Year The intellectual groundwork is being laid for the next stage of the Money Bubble, and it’s going to be epic. Here are excerpts from two articles that appeared over the weekend (and which should be read in their entirety). Both deal with Japan, which went all-in on debt […]
Central Banks Ready To Panic — Again
Central Banks Ready To Panic — Again Less than a decade after a housing/derivatives bubble nearly wiped out the global financial system, a new and much bigger commodities/derivatives bubble is threatening to finish the job. Raw materials are tanking as capital pours out of the most heavily-impacted countries and into anything that looks like a […]
