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The Next Financial Crisis Is Not Far Away
The Next Financial Crisis Is Not Far Away Recently, a Spanish group called “Ecologist in Action” asked me to give them a presentation on what kind of financial crisis we should expect. They wanted to know when it would be and how it would take place. The answer I had for the group is that we […]
Falling Interest Rates Have Postponed “Peak Oil”
Falling Interest Rates Have Postponed “Peak Oil” Falling interest rates have huge power. My background is as an actuary, so I am very much aware of the great power of interest rates. But a lot of people are not aware of this power, including, I suspect, some of the people making today’s decisions to raise interest […]
Why We Should Be Concerned About Low Oil Prices
Why We Should Be Concerned About Low Oil Prices Most people assume that oil prices, and for that matter other energy prices, will rise as we reach limits. This isn’t really the way the system works; oil prices can be expected to fall too low, as we reach limits. Thus, we should not be surprised if […]
The Economy Is Like a Circus
The Economy Is Like a Circus The economy is like a circus. It comes to town, and eventually it leaves town. We get paid in tickets to this circus. As long as the circus stays in town, we can use our tickets. Once the circus leaves town, we are pretty much out of luck.1 The reason […]
Why Energy-Economy Models Produce Overly Optimistic Indications
Why Energy-Economy Models Produce Overly Optimistic Indications I was asked to give a talk to a committee of actuaries who are concerned about modeling the financial future of programs, such as pension plans, given the energy problems that are often discussed. They (and the consultants that they hire) have been using an approach that puts problems […]
Raising Interest Rates Can’t End Well!
Raising Interest Rates Can’t End Well! The Federal Reserve would like to raise target interest rates because of inflation concerns and concern that asset bubbles are forming. Part of their concern seems to arise indirectly from the rise in oil prices, relative to their low level in early 2016. Figure 1. WSJ figure indicating likely reasons […]
The “Wind and Solar Will Save Us” Delusion
The “Wind and Solar Will Save Us” Delusion The “Wind and Solar Will Save Us” story is based on a long list of misunderstandings and apples to oranges comparisons. Somehow, people seem to believe that our economy of 7.5 billion people can get along with a very short list of energy supplies. This short list will […]
2017: The Year When the World Economy Starts Coming Apart
2017: The Year When the World Economy Starts Coming Apart Some people would argue that 2016 was the year that the world economy started to come apart, with the passage of Brexit and the election of Donald Trump. Whether or not the “coming apart” process started in 2016, in my opinion we are going to see […]
EROEI Calculations for Solar PV Are Misleading
EROEI Calculations for Solar PV Are Misleading The Energy Returned on Energy Invested (EROEI) concept is very frequently used in energy studies. In fact, many readers seem to think, “Of course, EROEI is what we should be looking at when comparing different types of energy. What else is important?” Unfortunately, the closer to the discussions of […]
How Researchers Could Miss the Real Energy Story
How Researchers Could Miss the Real Energy Story I have been telling a fairly different energy story from most energy researchers. How could I possibly be correct? What have other researchers been missing? The “standard” approach is to start from the amount of resources that we have of a particular type, for example, oil in the ground, […]
Why energy prices are ultimately headed lower; what the IMF missed
Why energy prices are ultimately headed lower; what the IMF missed We have been hearing a great deal about IMF concerns recently, after the release of its October 2016 World Economic Outlook and its Annual Meeting October 7-9. The concerns mentioned include the following: Too much growth in debt, with China particularly mentioned as a problem World economic growth seems to have […]
Intermittent Renewables Can’t Favorably Transform Grid Electricity
Intermittent Renewables Can’t Favorably Transform Grid Electricity Many people are hoping for wind and solar PV to transform grid electricity in a favorable way. Is this really possible? Is it really feasible for intermittent renewables to generate a large share of grid electricity? The answer increasingly looks as if it is, “No, the costs are too […]
An Updated Version of the “Peak Oil” Story
An Updated Version of the “Peak Oil” Story The Peak Oil story got some things right. Back in 1998, Colin Campbell and Jean Laherrère wrote an article published in Scientific American called, “The End of Cheap Oil.” In it they said: Our analysis of the discovery and production of oil fields around the world suggests that within the […]
Energy limits: Why we see rising wealth disparity and low prices
Energy limits: Why we see rising wealth disparity and low prices Last week, I gave a fairly wide-ranging presentation at the 2016 Biophysical Economics Conference called Complexity: The Connection Between Fossil Fuel EROI, Human Energy EROI, and Debt (pdf). In this post, I discuss the portion of the talk that explains several key issues: Why we are right now seeing so many […]
China: Is peak coal part of its problem?
China: Is peak coal part of its problem? The world’s coal resources are clearly huge. How could China, or the world in total, reach peak coal in a timeframe that makes a difference? If we look at China’s coal production and consumption in BP’s 2016 Statistical Review of World Energy (SRWE), this is what we see: Figure 1. China’s […]
