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Why Do Central Banks Want Higher Inflation?

Why Do Central Banks Want Higher Inflation?

Why Do Central Banks Want Higher Inflation?

The debt ceiling debate in U.S. Congress and related political nonsense brings even more to light the exponential growth in US federal government debt. US government debt has doubled in the 10 years since the last major debacle Congress created over raising the debt ceiling back 2011. The debate and Congress’s unwillingness to increase the limit back in August 2011 resulted in declining equity markets. It also resulted in Standard and Poor’s downgrading U.S. debt to AA+ from AAA!

The Political Standoff

The political standoff over raising this arbitrary restriction of how much debt the US can issue has become just another political lever in the dysfunctional Congress. As Secretary Yellen points out…

Raising the debt ceiling doesn’t authorize additional spending of taxpayer dollars. Instead, when we raise the debt ceiling, we’re effectively agreeing to raise the country’s credit card balance, and in this case, 97% of that balance was incurred by past congresses and presidential administrations. Even if the Biden administration hadn’t authorized any spending, we would still need to address the debt ceiling now. Raising the debt limit was a regular occurrence – congress has either permanently or temporarily raised the debt limit 80 times since 1960. And before 2011, this was done generally with little debate as raising the debt ceiling does not approve new or additional spending but allows the government to borrow in order to pay already approved spending.

Janet Yellen WSJ Op-Ed 19 September 2021

That’s right it doesn’t authorize new spending it only allows for the U.S. Treasury to borrow enough to carry out the mandates of Congress for spending that has already been authorised. At least for now Congress approved enough of an increase to keep the U.S. government solvent until December 3.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Money Velocity and Prices

The yearly growth rate of US AMS jumped to almost 80% by February 2021 (see chart). Given such massive increase in money supply, it is tempting to suggest that this lays the foundation for an explosive increase in the annual growth of prices of goods and services sometime in the future

Some experts are of the view that what matters for increases in the momentum of prices is not just increases in money supply but also the velocity of money – or how fast money circulates. The velocity of AMS fell to 2.4 in June this year from 6.8 in January 2008. On this way of thinking, a decline in money velocity is going to offset the strong increase in money supply. Hence, the effect on the momentum of prices of goods is not going to be that dramatic. What is the rationale behind all this?

Popular view of what velocity is

According to popular thinking, the idea of velocity is straightforward.  It is held that over any interval of time, such as a year, a given amount of money can be used repeatedly to finance people’s purchases of goods and services.

The money one person spends for goods and services at any given moment, can be used later by the recipient of that money to purchase yet other goods and services.  For example, during a year a particular ten-dollar bill used as following: a baker John pays the ten-dollars to a tomato farmer George. The tomato farmer uses the ten-dollar bill to buy potatoes from Bob who uses the ten-dollar bill to buy sugar from Tom. The ten-dollar here served in three transactions. This means that the ten-dollar bill was used three times during the year, its velocity is therefore three.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

 

Peter Schiff: Stock Up Now! Inflation Could Get Very Ugly

Peter Schiff: Stock Up Now! Inflation Could Get Very Ugly

The price of pretty much everything is rising precipitously. The CPI for September came in above expectations with a month-on-month increase of 0.4%. Peter Schiff appeared on Unfiltered with Dan Bongino to talk about inflation in Joe Biden’s America. Peter said you should stock up now because things could get ugly really quickly.

Bongino pointed out that while wages are rising, they aren’t rising as fast as prices. Wages have risen 4.6% while inflation has surged by 5.4% — according to government numbers. Peter said that is typically the trend.

The price of labor never keeps up with the price of stuff.”

Peter said the real problem is during and after COVID, a lot of Americans stopped working.

Unfortunately, they didn’t reduce their spending because the government made the mistake of replacing the incomes they lost with new money that the Federal Reserve was printing. So, we were making fewer things to buy, but everybody had more money to buy stuff, and so, prices just went ballistic. And they’re going to keep going up.”

Bongino pointed out that the rich have accounts and hedge mechanisms to shield themselves from the impacts of inflation. But what does an average middle-class family do to avoid the financial apocalypse of inflation coming down the pike?

Peter said, first of all, remember that inflation is a tax.

So, when the Biden administration says they’re not taxing people that make less than $400,000, they’re hitting them with this huge inflation tax.”

So, how do you avoid it?

Peter said, “Stock up now!”

Buy the things that you think you may need a year from now, two years from now. Buy it now. Especially the stuff that is nonperishable…

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Stagflation is Here

QUESTION: When do we talk about stagflation?

F

ANSWER: We are already experiencing it. Normally, the standard definition of “stagflation” has been explained as slow economic growth with relatively high unemployment/or economic stagnation that takes place with rising prices. Some have also defined it as a period of inflation combined with a decline in the gross domestic product (GDP).

Stagflation became a term that defined the 1970s because economic growth was still positive, but the rate of inflation was far greater due to the price shock of the OPEC embargo. Because of the Democrats constantly pushing to raise taxes, they sent corporations fleeing offshore, and it was NOT merely because of the tax rate. I testified before the House Ways & Means Committee on taxation and they wanted to know why NO American company got a contract from China like constructing the Yellow River Dam. I explained that German companies were NOT taxed on worldwide income, and as such, they were already 40% less than an American company because Americans pay taxes on worldwide income, and the ONLY other country to that was Japan. Thus, American companies moved offshore, NOT because labor was cheaper, but so they could complete.

As a result, I provided our analysis that showed when we allocated trade according to the flag of the company instead of where something was manufactured, then the US had a trade surplus instead of a trade deficit. Trump understood that and offered a one-time tax deal to bring their profits home. The Democrats screamed because they wanted 40% in taxes. But they would not bring the money home and so they got 0%.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Viewing Inflation Through Rose-Colored Glasses

Once “we get the pandemic under control, the global economy comes back, these pressures will mitigate and I believe will go back to normal levels,” Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen stated, echoing “transitory” sentiments by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. Powell believes supply chain bottlenecks are the main culprit for inflation. Well, the Biden Administration appointed the secretaries of Commerce, Agriculture and Transportation to create a supply chain task force to fix the influx issues.

Sameera Fazili, a deputy director of the White House National Economic Council, stated, “Our approach to supply chain resilience needs to look forward to emerging threats from cybersecurity to climate issues.” Is climate change the issue here? Is this an indication of where the government will misdirect resources once again? Fazili further displayed how out of touch the government is with the current crisis by saying inflation due to supply shortages is “kind of [a] good problem to be having,” as it indicates demand. The countless number of businesses and consumers currently paying for basic living expenses at up to 30-year highs may not see the glass half full at the moment.

Then, the Biden Administration met with the workers at the Port of Los Angeles this week, where it was agreed upon that the port would operate 24/7 to address issues. Ports in Los Angeles and Long Beach, California, account for 40% of all shipments into the US, which seems to be a good start. Even Walmart, FedEx, and UPS have agreed to unload their shipments at non-peak hours to help the process. Oh, wait, the ongoing worker shortage. Companies are begging people to apply, and it remains to be seen whether the ports will be able to maintain proper staffing to run at full capacity around the clock…

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

We’re Living in a Chaos Economy. Here’s How to End It.

We’re Living in a Chaos Economy. Here’s How to End It.

small business bbq

The Federal Reserve has been increasing the money supply at an explosive rate. The federal budget, deficits, and the trade deficit are record levels. Governments, both foreign and domestic, have locked down people, restricting production and consumption. How should this be viewed by an economist?

There is clearly chaos in the economy, and hardly a day goes by when I don’t find unusual if not unprecedented situations in day-to-day economic life. However, many people and economists are either oblivious to the problems or in denial. Things are normal for them. Politicians are mostly in this camp. For economists and investment promotors, inflation is “transitory.” They don’t know how the economy works and they expect near perfection from the economy and entrepreneurs. This view is wrong.

The chaos is all too real for most others. Homemakers who spend household income are seeing their purchasing power shrink, their choices disappearing, and more of their time consumed stretching the family budgets. Christmas shopping will be worse than normal.

Chaos deniers are further entrenched in their experience by the mainstream media (MSM). The problems are either not reported by the MSM or are masked by aggregate statistics like price inflation, i.e., the Consumer Price Index, low unemployment, wage increases, and extremely high stock markets and real estate, especially housing prices. These stats make people feel good, or at least less nervous.

Below the government economists’ radar there is real economic suffering. Small businesses are hurting and going out of business. Based on Help Wanted signs I drive by every day, it is extremely difficult to hire employees or purchase inputs. One local BBQ restaurant recently had a sign that said, “Out of Chicken, Pork and Beef.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Three bizarre reasons why inflation is here to stay

When I was about five years old in the early 1980s, my dad brought home our first computer.

I’ll never forget it– it was an clunky IBM with a tiny, orange, monochromatic monitor, and dual floppy disks. It had 640 kilobytes of RAM, and no hard disk.

I loved it. With that computer I learned how to program, how to navigate a command-line interface, how to design algorithms, and how to solve constant problems… because it was ridiculously buggy and would break down all the time.

It was also painfully slow. The boot-up process could easily take an hour, from the time I flipped on the power switch, to the time I saw the ‘DOS prompt’.

Sometimes I think that computer is a great metaphor for the global economy. Turning it off is nothing; you flip the switch and the power goes off. But starting it back up again takes a long time. And the process isn’t so smooth– sometimes it crashes during bootup.

Last March when the Great Plague was upon us, nearly every industry, in nearly every country in the world, practically shut down.

And many businesses went bust, never to return.

Eighteen months later businesses have largely reopened. But like my old computer, the reboot process has been riddled with critical errors and system failures.

For example, right now there are countless businesses in industries from retail to manufacturing that are experiencing severe labor shortages. Supply chains around the world are breaking down, resulting in product shortages and major transportation bottlenecks.

The end result of this dumpster fire is that prices are soaring. And I wanted to spend some time today connecting the dots to help explain some of these important trends.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Producer Price Inflation Hits New Record High, Pricing Pressures Near ’70s Peak

Producer Price Inflation Hits New Record High, Pricing Pressures Near ’70s Peak

After CPI’s “transitory”-narrative-busting rebound, analysts expected Producer Prices to accelerate even further into record territory and it did – jumping 0.5% MoM to a new record 8.6% YoY. Bothe prints were modestly below the expected levels (+0.6% MoM and +8.7% YoY respectively)…

Source: Bloomberg

Source: Bloomberg

Goods PPI dominated the surge in prices (40 percent of the broad-based advance can be attributed to a 2.8-percent jump in prices for final demand energy) while Services PPI rose only modestly (helped by a contraction in prices for transportation and storage)…

More worrying is the pipeline for PPI is still signaling far more pain ahead…

PPI Final Demand has a ways to go:  Intermediate pricing pressures are nearing 1970s peaks

And finally, companies are under the most pressure to pass these price increases on to customers as the CPI-PPI inflation gap reaches a new record…

Is The Fed already too late with its taper?

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Here is The Hidden $150 Trillion Agenda Behind The “Crusade” Against Climate Change

Here is The Hidden $150 Trillion Agenda Behind The “Crusade” Against Climate Change

We now live in a world, where bizarro headlines such as the ones below, have become a daily if not hourly occurrence:

  • *TREASURY TO STUDY IMPACT OF CLIMATE ON HOUSEHOLDS, COMMUNITIES
  • *TREASURY LAUNCHES EFFORT ON CLIMATE-RELATED FINANCIAL RISKS
  • *BRAINARD: CLIMATE-SCENARIO ANALYSIS WILL HELP IDENTIFY RISKS
  • *BRAINARD: CLIMATE CHANGE COULD HAVE PROFOUND ECONOMIC EFFECTS
  • *MESTER: FED LOOKS AT CLIMATE CHANGE FROM VIEW OF RISKS TO BANKS
  • *FED IS TAKING THE RIGHT COURSE ON MONITORING CLIMATE CHANGE
  • *FED SHOULD CONSIDER CLIMATE-CHANGE RISK TO FINANCIAL SYSTEM

Now, in case someone is still confused, none of these institutions, and not a single of the erudite officials running them, give a rat’s ass about the climate, about climate change risks, or about the fate of future generations of Americans (and certainly not about the rising water level sweeping away their massive waterfront mansions): if they did, total US debt and underfunded liabilities wouldn’t be just shy of $160 trillion.

So what is going on, and why is it that virtually every topic these days has to do with climate change, “net zero”, green energy and ESG?

The reason – as one would correctly suspect – is money. Some $150 trillion of it.

Earlier today, Bank of America published one of its massive “Thematic Research” tomes, this time covering the “Transwarming” World, and serves as a massive primer to today’s Net Zero reality. The report (which is available to all ZH pro subs) is actually a must read, interesting, chock-full of data and charts such as these…

… and handy cheat sheets…

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

IMF Issues Global Stagflation Alert: Cuts Global GDP As It Warns Of Rising Inflation And “Dangerous Divergence”

IMF Issues Global Stagflation Alert: Cuts Global GDP As It Warns Of Rising Inflation And “Dangerous Divergence”

In its latest World Economic Outlook report published on Tuesday morning, the International Monetary Fund voiced its starkest caution about stagflation yet, warning that the global economic recovery has lost momentum and become increasingly divided, even as it warned about rising inflation risks.

The fund warned threats to growth had increased, pointing to the delta variant, strained supply chains, accelerating inflation and rising costs for food and fuel. As a result, the IMF trimmed its global growth forecast and now expects world GDP to rise 5.9% this year, down 0.1% from what it anticipated in July and a bounce from the 3.1% contraction of 2020. The 2022 forecast was unchanged at 4.9%.

Pointing to this “dangerous divergence” in economic prospects across countries, the IMF said that this remains “a major concern.” And while the IMF trimmed its growth outlook, it also warned that the global economy is entering a phase of inflationary risk, and called on central banks to be “very, very vigilant” and take early action to tighten monetary policy should price pressures prove persistent.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Yet another worry: Price of ship fuel is now highest since 2014

Yet another worry: Price of ship fuel is now highest since 2014

Bunker surcharges on the rise for shippers of containerized cargo

Commodity prices are surging around the globe, so it should come as no surprise: Marine fuel is getting a lot more expensive. That’s bad news for ship operators on the cost side, and, in the container business, yet another headache for cargo shippers.

Marine bunker prices are “soaring,” said Alphatanker on Thursday. “This has not just impacted 3.5% [high-sulfur fuel oil or HSFO] but also 0.5% VLSFO [very low sulfur fuel oil].

“There are expectations that crude, and therefore marine fuel, could move higher in the coming weeks as oil markets tighten further,” warned Alphatanker, adding, “This will undoubtedly clip gains in tanker earnings.”

All ship categories, not just tankers, are taking a cost hit. On Thursday, the S&P Global Platts T4 index estimated that a Capesize (a dry bulk ship with capacity of around 180,000 deadweight tons) burning VLSFO was spending $24,596 per day on fuel.

Ships equipped with exhaust-gas scrubbers are still able to burn cheaper HSFO under IMO 2020, a regulation that went into force for all commercial ships on Jan. 1, 2020. According to the Platts’ T4 Thursday assessment, scrubber-equipped Capes were paying $22,815 per day for fuel.

Why pricing is up and where it’s going

“The main driver for bunker pricing is the price of oil — that’s the key,” said Martyn Lasek, managing director of Ship & Bunker, a company that provides pricing data. “If you look at the relationship between Brent and VLSFO, it’s now pretty solid. There’s an established price trend.”

American Shipper asked Richard Joswick, head of global oil analytics at S&P Global Platts, where the price of crude — and thus ship fuel — is going.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Fertilizer Prices Hit Record Highs, May Pressure Food Inflation Even Higher

Fertilizer Prices Hit Record Highs, May Pressure Food Inflation Even Higher

Fertilizer prices have risen to a record high in North America, threatening to boost food inflation even higher. Nitrogen products are increasing due to the cost of natural gas, which is used in the manufacturing process.

The Green Markets North America Fertilizer Price Index soared to a record high last week of $996.32 per short ton.

The fertilizer market has been roiled by hurricanes, plant shutdowns, sanctions, and shortages of natural gas in Europe and China, pushing nutrient prices sky-high, which will raise the cost of production for global farmers. Here are global fertilizer prices zooming higher:

Fertilizers play an essential role in crop development for producing enough food for the global economy. The soaring costs of nutrients plus rapid food inflation will have the most severe economic impacts on emerging market economies first because low-income folks allocate a more significant part of their incomes to purchasing food. This week, the Food and Agriculture Organization’s global food index hit a new decade high, driven by gains for cereals and vegetable oils.

Expensive fertilizer will push production costs higher for farmers worldwide, which will continue to increase food inflation.

Benefiting from rising fertilizer prices is CF Industries Holdings Inc., the world’s second-biggest fertilizer company.

Here’s Why the Housing Market Has Gone from Overheated to Raging Inferno

Here's Why the Housing Market Has Gone from Overheated to Raging Inferno

Image credit: Creative Commons (CC0)

The housing market is on the verge of spinning out of control. Just about everything that could be going wrong is going wrong.

The only holdout for the moment is home prices, which are up an astonishing 22.5% just this year. For many homeowners, that’s great news. Home equity is a huge source of wealth for middle-class Americans. And when home prices are high (just like when stock prices are high), you feel wealthy.

Unfortunately, like stocks, home prices can drop like a rock at a moment’s notice. That’s one lesson we learned all too well in 2008. Another Great Recession-type plummet in home prices forces many buyers underwater, stranding them with an asset they overpaid for and can no longer afford, and can’t even sell.

Let’s start our brief examination of today’s overheated housing market by taking a glance at how the Fed has been propping it up so far.

How the Fed props up housing prices

The Fed employs various financial interventions to coax the economy in the direction they choose. We know the words: quantitative easing. Lowering interest rates. Repo and reverse repo. Obscure financial hocus-pocus that nevertheless moves markets worldwide.

When it comes to the housing market, the Fed doesn’t need to do anything fancy. They just create artificial demand for mortgage-backed securities (MBS, also known as one of the notorious “toxic assets” that poisoned the U.S. in 2008).

Mike Shedlock revealed the trick:

In a single week the Fed added $22 billion in mortgage backed securities, nearly all of which had a duration of 10 years or longer. This is an ongoing process despite major subtractions via reverse repos. In the process, the Fed gooses housing by extending the duration of the assets it does hold, effectively lowering long-term interest rates in the process.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Money, Bad Policies, Inflation & You

The global financial system and economy are a house or cards.  Built on an unsustainable underpinning to ever-increasing debt the financial system is, as far as I am concerned, irretrievably insolvent.

To truly grasp this you need to understand the basics of banking and currency (what we call money, but really isn’t because it doesn’t satisfy all three necessary preconditions to be called such).  This is briefly covered in this episode.

With that basic grounding we can appreciate the vast gap between the claims on true wealth and the amount of true wealth (lots of currency, not as much ‘stuff’) and now can discuss the immense pain coming to those with fewer resources to combat rapidly rising inflation.

Even worse, a true energy emergency in Europe is going to really create a lot of headaches and financial heartaches for a lot of people.  With this essential context you can begin to build up a personal resilience plan to weather it all as best you can.  But it all begins by having the right frame of view and sufficient information and context.

 

Why Everything is Suddenly Getting More Expensive — And Why It Won’t Stop

Welcome to the Great Inflation — Or, Why We Have to Pay for the Hidden Costs of the Industrial Age

Image Credit: Fortune

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

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