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Visualizing $65 Trillion In Hidden Dollar Debt

January 12, 2023

Visualizing $65 Trillion In Hidden Dollar Debt

The scale of hidden dollar debt around the world is huge.

As Visual Capitalist’s Dorothy Neufeld details below, no less than $65 trillion in unrecorded dollar debt circulates across the global financial system in non-U.S. banks and shadow banks. To put in perspective, global GDP sits at $104 trillion.

This dollar debt is in the form of foreign-exchange swaps, which have exploded over the last decade due to years of monetary easing and ultra-low interest rates, as investors searched for higher yields. Today, unrecorded debt from these foreign-exchange swaps is worth more than double the dollar debt officially recorded on balance sheets across these institutions.

Based on analysis from the Bank of International Settlements (BIS), the above infographic charts the rise in hidden dollar debt across non-U.S. financial institutions and examines the wider implications of its growth.

Dollar Debt: A Beginners Guide

To start, we will briefly look at the role of foreign-exchange (forex) swaps in the global economy. The forex market is the largest in the world by a long stretch, with trillions traded daily.

Some of the key players that use foreign-exchange swaps are:

  • Corporations
  • Financial institutions
  • Central banks

To understand forex swaps is to look at the role of currency risk. As we have seen in 2022, the U.S. dollar has been on a tear. When this happens, it hurts company earnings that generate revenue across borders. That’s because they earn revenue in foreign currencies (which have likely declined in value against the dollar) but end up converting earnings to U.S. dollars.

In order to reduce currency risk, market participants will buy forex swaps. Here, two parties agree to exchange one currency for another. In short, this helps protect the company from unfavorable foreign exchange rates.

What’s more, due to accounting rules, forex swaps are often unrecorded on balance sheets, and as a result are quite opaque.

…click on the above link to read the rest…

 

Ominous Military & Financial Nuclear Threats Could Erupt in 2023

January 11, 2023

OMINOUS MILITARY & FINANCIAL NUCLEAR THREATS COULD ERUPT IN 2023

Nuclear explosion

The world is today confronted with two nuclear threats of a proportion never previously seen in history. These threats are facing us at a time when the world economy is about to turn and decline precipitously not just for years but probably decades.

The obvious nuclear threat is the war between the US and Russia which currently is playing out in Ukraine.

The other nuclear threat is the financial weapons of mass destruction in the form of debt and derivatives amounting to probably US$ 2.5 quadrillion.

If we are lucky, the geopolitical event can be avoided but I doubt that the explosion/implosion of the Western financial timebomb can be stopped.

More about these risks later in the article.

There is also a summary of my market views for 2023 and onwards at the end of the article.

CURIOSITY AND RISK

With a business life of over 52 years in banking, commerce and investments, I am fortunate to still learn every day and learning is really the joy of life. But the more you learn, the more you realise how little you really know.

Being a constant and curious learner means that life is never dull.

As Einstein said:

“The important thing is not to stop questioning.

Curiosity has its own reason for existing.”

There has been another important constancy in my life which is understanding and protecting RISK.

I learnt early on in my commercial life that it is critical to identify risk and endeavour to protect the downside. If you can achieve that, the upside normally takes care of itself.

Sometimes the risk is so clear that you want to stand on the barricades and shout. But sadly most investors are driven by greed and seldom see when markets become high risk.

…click on the above link to read the rest…

Global Rate Hikes Hit the Wall of Debt Maturity

December 17, 2022

Global Rate Hikes Hit the Wall of Debt Maturitydebt

More than ninety central banks worldwide are increasing interest rates. Bloomberg predicts that by mid-2023, the global policy rate, calculated as the average of major central banks’ reference rates weighted by GDP, will reach 5.5%. Next year, the federal funds rate is projected to reach 5.15 percent.

Raising interest rates is a necessary but insufficient measure to combat inflation. To reduce inflation to 2%, central banks must significantly reduce their balance sheets, which has not yet occurred in local currency, and governments must reduce spending, which is highly unlikely.

The most challenging obstacle is also the accumulation of debt.

The so-called “expansionary policies” have not been an instrument for reducing debt, but rather for increasing it. In the second quarter of 2022, according to the Institute of International Finance (IIF), the global debt-to-GDP ratio will approach 350% of GDP. IIF anticipates that the global debt-to-GDP ratio will reach 352% by the end of 2022.

Global issuances of high-yield debt have slowed but remain elevated. According to the IMF, the total issuance of European and American high-yield bonds reached a record high of $1.6 trillion in 2021, as businesses and investors capitalized on still-low interest rates and high liquidity. According to the IMF, high-yield bond issuances in the United States and Europe will reach $700 billion in 2022, similar to 2008 levels. All of the risky debt accumulated over the past few years will need to be refinanced between 2023 and 2025, requiring the refinancing of over $10 trillion of the riskiest debt at much higher interest rates and with less liquidity.

Moody’s estimates that United States corporate debt maturities will total $785 billion in 2023 and $800 billion in 2024. This increases the maturities of the Federal government. The United States has $31 trillion in outstanding debt with a five-year average maturity, resulting in $5 trillion in refinancing needs during fiscal 2023 and a $2 trillion budget deficit…

…click on the above link to read the rest…

The Mother of all Economic Crises

December 14, 2022

The Mother of all Economic Crises

Nouriel Roubini, a former advisor to the International Monetary Fund and member of President Clinton’s Council of Economic Advisors, was one of the few “mainstream” economists to predict the collapse of the housing bubble. Now Roubini is warning that the staggering amounts of debt held by individuals, businesses, and the government will soon lead to the “mother of all economic crises.”

Roubini properly blames the creation of a debt-based economy on the near-or-at-zero interest rate and quantitative easing policies pursued by the Federal Reserve and other central banks. The inevitable result of the zero-interest and quantitative easing policies is price inflation wreaking havoc on the American people.

The Fed has been trying to eliminate price inflation with a series of interest rate increases. So far, these rate increases have not significantly reduced price inflation. This is because rates remain at historic lows. Yet the rate increases have had negative economic effects, including a decline in the demand for new homes. Increasing interest rates make it impossible for many middle- and working-class Americans to afford a monthly mortgage payment for even a relatively inexpensive home.

The main reason the Fed cannot raise rates to anywhere near what they would be in a free market is the effect it would have on the federal government’s ability to manage its debt. According to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), interest on the national debt is already on track to consume 40 percent of the federal budget by 2052 and will surpass defense spending by 2029! A small interest rate increase can raise yearly federal debt interest rate payments by many billions of dollars, increasing the amount of the federal budget devoted solely to servicing the debt.

…click on the above link to read the rest…

The macroeconomics of bank-created money and a Modern Debt Jubilee as a way out of the private debt trap

December 8, 2022

The macroeconomics of bank-created money and a Modern Debt Jubilee as a way out of the private debt trap

My friend Dr. Sabri Oncu has established an innovative seminar program at Kadir Has University in Turkey. Called the “Kadir Has Lectures on Global Political Economy”, it has had lectures from a number of non-mainstream economists, including Ann Pettifor, Frances Coppola, Yanis Varoufakis, and Jan Kregel.

Forthcoming lecturers include Louis Philippe Rochon and  Matias Vernengo.  You can find the series here:  https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLF796nZs0vOE-Rbrquqdfdrm0ck92lMjI

In my lecture, I explain how bank credit adds to aggregate demand and income, and therefore how capitalism’s great crises–the Great Depression, the Great Recession, the Panic of 1837, and so on–were caused by credit turning negative.

I also explain how we could remedy the economy via a “Modern Debt Jubilee”. Of course, since Neoclassical economists dominate economic policy, I know that this policy has no better than a snowflake’s chance in Hell of being implemented.

I’ve attached the PDF of my slides here as well (unfortunately Substack doesn’t support Powerpoint files: if you want to download them, please go to the Patreon page https://www.patreon.com/posts/75639086.

Building a New Economics is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

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One Monetary Policy Fits All – Part II

November 30, 2022

One Monetary Policy Fits All – Part II

In Part one of this series, Our Currency The World’s Problem, we discuss the vital role the U.S. dollar plays in the global economy. With an understanding of the dollar’s role as the world’s reserve currency, it’s time to discuss how the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy machinations influence the dollar and, therefore, the global economy and financial markets.

Given the Fed’s recent extreme monetary policy actions, which haven’t been seen in over 40 years, it is more important now than ever to appreciate the potential global consequences of the Fed’s stern fight against inflation.

Triffin’s Paradox

In Part 1, we highlight the following two lines, which help describe Triffin’s paradox.

“To supply the world with dollars, the United States must consistently run a trade deficit. Running persistent deficits, the United States would become a debtor nation.”

“Simply the growing divergence between debt and the ability to pay for it, GDP, is unsustainable.”

Increasingly borrowing without the means to pay it off is unsustainable. The terms zombie company or Ponzi Scheme come to mind when considering such a system. That said, because the printer of the currency and taxer of its citizens is in charge, we can only ask how long the status quo can continue.

The answer is partially up to the Fed. The Fed can use QE and low-interest rates to delay the inevitable. As we now see, the problem is that those tools are detrimental when there is high inflation. Fighting inflation requires higher interest rates and QT, both of which are problematic for high debt levels.

Financial Tremors

The Bank of England is bailing out U.K. pension funds. The Bank of Japan uses excessive monetary policy to protect its currency and cap interest rates…

…click on the above link to read the rest…

How Inflation Will Impact The 2020s & 2030s

November 18, 2022

Are You Ready for the Coming U.S. Government Default?

November 7, 2022

Are You Ready for the Coming U.S. Government Default?

The vast herd of investors are a deluded crowd.  Following the Federal Reserve’s much anticipated 75 basis point rate hike on Wednesday the major stock market indexes jumped upward.

Optimistic investors keyed in on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement and, in particular, the remark that the Fed, “will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation and economic and financial developments.”

Somehow this was perceived as being the precursor to a policy pivot.  Yet during the post-FOMC statement press conference, Powell clarified that, “It’s very premature to be thinking about pausing.”

Stocks then fell off a cliff.  The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) closing out the day with a loss of 505 points.

Will there be a pivot, pause, or no pivot?  This is the wrong question to be asking.  The reality is the major stock market indexes have much farther to fall before the bear market is over, regardless of if the Fed pivots anytime soon.

If you recall, the Fed began cutting interest rates in September of 2007.  Yet the stock market didn’t bottom out until March of 2009.  Similarly, the Fed began cutting interest rates in January of 2001.  Still, the stock market didn’t bottom out until October of 2002.

Thus, using these two most recent bear markets as a guide, once the Fed finally begins cutting interest rates, which would come after inflation has begun to abate and a period of interest rate pause, the stock market will continue to fall for another 18 to 22 months.

In other words, this bear market may not bottom out until well into 2025.  What’s more, the entire dollar based financial system will likely blow up sometime beforehand.

How’s that for a grim outlook?

…click on the above link to read the rest…

$2.5 Quadrillion Disaster Waiting to Happen – Egon von Greyerz

November 3, 2022

$2.5 Quadrillion Disaster Waiting to Happen – Egon von Greyerz

Egon von Greyerz (EvG) stores gold for clients at the biggest private gold vault in the world buried deep in the Swiss Alps. EvG is a financial and precious metals expert.  EvG is a former Swiss banker and an expert in risk.  He says the risk in the global markets has never been this high.

EvG explains, “Credit has increased dramatically through derivatives.  All instruments being issued now by banks, pension funds, stock funds, it’s all synthetic.  There is no real underlying payments in anything almost.  Therefore, my estimate for derivatives would be at least $2 quadrillion, and I think that is probably conservative.  Then, we have debt on top of that of $300 trillion, and we also have a couple hundred trillion dollars of unfunded liabilities.  So, we are talking about $2.5 quadrillion, and that’s with a global GDP of $80 trillion.  So, there is a disaster waiting to happen, and especially because all this created money has created no value whatsoever. . . . I always knew this would collapse, and it’s taken longer than I expected, but I think we are at the end of a major era. . . . These derivatives, at some point in the coming few years, will actually turn into debt.  Central banks will have to cover all the outstanding liabilities of the commercial banks as we are seeing now with Credit Suisse, Bank of England and etc.  This is going to happen across the board.  Whether it’s called derivatives or called debt, as far as I am concerned, it’s the same thing.  It will have the same effect on the world financial system, which will be disastrous, of course.”

EvG says the derivative markets were simply a way for financial institutions to carry debt and not show it on their balance sheets.  In the end, everything will balance out…

…click on the above link to read the rest…

$2 Quadrillion Debt Precariously Resting on $2 Trillion Gold

October 30, 2022

$2 QUADRILLION DEBT PRECARIOUSLY RESTING ON $2 TRILLION GOLD

A Lehman squared moment is approaching with Swiss banks and UK pension funds under severe pressure.

But let’s first look at another circus –

The global travelling circus is now reaching ever more nations just as expected. This is right on cue at the end of the most extraordinary financial bubble era in history.

It is obviously debt creation, money printing and the resulting currency debasement which creates the inevitable fall of yet another monetary system. This has been the norm throughout history so “the more it changes, the more it stays the same”.

It started this time with the closing of the gold window in August 1971.  That was the beginning of a financial and political circus which continuously added more risk and more lethal acts to keep the circus going.

An economic upheaval always causes political chaos with a revolving door of leaders and political parties going and coming. Remember, a government is never voted in but invariably voted out.

What was always clear to a few of us was that the circus would end with all of the acts crashing virtually simultaneously.

And this is what is starting to happen now.

We have just seen a political farce in the UK. Even the most talented playwright could not have created such a wonderful merry-go-round of characters who we have seen coming in and out of Downing Street.

Just look at the UK Prime Ministers. First there was David Cameron who had to resign in 2016 due to mishandling Brexit. Then the next PM Theresa May had to go in 2019 since she couldn’t get anything done, including Brexit. Then Boris Johnson won the biggest Conservative majority ever but was forced out in 2022 due to Partygate during Covid.

In came Liz Truss as PM in September this year but she only lasted 44 days due to her and her Chancellor’s (Finance Minister) mishandling of the mini budget. They managed to crash the pound and UK gilts (bonds) on the international markets leading to the Bank of England having to step in. Both gilts, derivatives and UK pension funds were at the point of implosion.

And now the carousel has gone full circle with Rishi Sunak the ex-Chancellor taking the helm as Boris bailed out. Boris clearly decided that speeches and other private engagements would be more fruitful than being part of the circus. But he will most certainly attempt to come back.

What a circus!

It just shows that at the end of an economic era, we get the worst leaders who always promise but never deliver.

In a bankrupt global system, you reach a point when the value of printed money dies and whatever a leader promises can no longer be bought with fake money which will always have ZERO intrinsic value.

No one must believe that this is only happening in the UK. The US has a leader who sadly is too old and not in command. He has a deputy who is not respected by anyone. So if Biden, as many believe, doesn’t make it to the end of his period, the US is likely to have a real leadership circus. Also, the US economy is chronically ill having run deficits for 90 years. What keeps the US alive temporarily is the dollar which is strong because it is the least ugly horse in the currency stable.

Scholz in Germany was given a very bad hand by Merkel but has certainly not improved it since he took charge and Germany is on the verge of collapse.

Most countries are the same. Macron doesn’t have a majority in France and strikes are paralysing his country on a daily basis. And his new Italian counterpart, PM Georgina Meloni certainly doesn’t shred her words. Just watch her having a very aggressive go at Macron (poor video quality).

But for people (like myself) who have difficulty accepting the current wave of Wokeism in the world, Meloni’s attack on this fad and her strong defence of family values is a “must watch” (video link). So there is still hope when leaders dare to express views that most media including social media censor today.

DEBT BONDAGE

History has dealt with punishment of non payment of debt in a variety of ways.

In the early Roman Republic around 2,500 years ago, there was a debt bondage called Nexum. In simple terms, a borrower pledged his person as collateral. If he didn’t pay his debt he was enslaved often for an undetermined period.

$2 trillion

Jumping quickly to modern times, it would mean that the majority of people, especially in the West would all be debt slaves today. The big difference today is that most people are debt slaves but they have physical freedom. Since virtually nobody, individuals, companies or sovereign states, neither has the intention nor the ability to repay debt, the world now has a chronic debt slavery.

It is even worse than that. The playing field is totally skewed in favour of the banks, big business and the wealthy. The more money you can play with, the more money you can make risk free.

UNLIMITED PERSONAL LIABILITY

No banker, no company management or business owner ever has to take the loss personally if he makes a mistake. Losses are socialised and profits are capitalised. Heads I win, Tails I don’t lose!

Weeks Away from Whole Shithouse Coming Down – Bill Holter

October 19, 2022

Weeks Away from Whole Shithouse Coming Down – Bill Holter

Precious metals expert and financial writer Bill Holter said in June it was “game over, they’re pulling the plug.”  The Fed went on an aggressive interest rate raising policy and is still raising rates.  Now, the economy is staggering.   Holter explains, “For sure, we are already in a recession.  We are now in the third quarter of negative growth.  I think it is laughable that people  put odds on whether or not we are going to go into a recession because it is obvious–we are already in a recession.  Rates rising have absolutely frozen the real estate market.  If you own a property, who is going to buy it?  Rates have gone from 3.25% to more than 7%.  I am on the record that once we saw a 3% yield on the 10-Year Treasury, you would start to see a tightness in credit.  Now, we are over 4%.  What few people are talking about is what has this already done to the derivatives market? . . . Think about how big the derivatives market is.  Total credit worldwide is $350 trillion, but you have derivatives pushing $2 quadrillion.  I have said this all along, derivatives will blow up.  Warren Buffett has called them financial weapons of mass destruction.  They are far bigger than central banks can fix.”

Holter goes on to say, “The real economy runs on credit.  Everything you look at, everything you touch and everything you do every day has many uses of credit to get to the final product or situation.  So, once credit freezes up, it’s completely game over.  In a past interview, I said they are pulling the plug.  They have to pull the plug because, mathematically, the debt cannot be paid.  The derivatives cannot perform.  So, they have to pull the plug.  They also have to do one other thing, and that is they have to kick the table over…

…click on the above link to read the rest…

‘Canary in the Gold Mine’: Asset Seizures Could Skyrocket Due to Post-Pandemic Debt Default, Says Bailiff

October 17, 2022

A for sale sign is displayed in front of a house in the Riverdale area of Toronto on Sept. 29, 2021. (The Canadian Press/Evan Buhler)
A for sale sign is displayed in front of a house in the Riverdale area of Toronto on Sept. 29, 2021. (The Canadian Press/Evan Buhler)
CANADA

‘Canary in the Gold Mine’: Asset Seizures Could Skyrocket Due to Post-Pandemic Debt Default, Says Bailiff

North Central Bailiffs in Kelowna, B.C., is busy. In fact, as pandemic restrictions and mandates continue to ease, owner Mike Sundstrom has never had more work end up on his desk.

From Sundstrom’s vantage point, the industry where he makes his living as a licensed bailiff and licensed sheriff isn’t prepared to handle the massive surge of claims he predicts is just around the corner.

His firm, one of several bailiff firms in the province, gets to see a sweeping overview where most of the financial and economic sectors collide. And given how many lenders and government agencies hit the pause button on collections during the past two and a half years of COVID-19 when Canadians’ ability to pay was most fragile, Sundstrom says every sector is now beginning to call him.

“[Bailiffs are] the canary in the gold mine,” he told The Epoch Times.

From banking to car dealerships to residential defaults, he says asset seizures continue to climb. Yet, he says, what has him even more concerned is the fallout when the slow pace of government claims such as tax files eventually make their way through the system.

“Every time I turn around there’s a new file coming in, and we’re seeing this all at once,” Sundstrom says.

“Everything is up. Repossessions are up, evictions are up. And this even though we’re not seeing Revenue Canada, PST [provincial sales tax], and WCB [Workers’ Compensation Board] back to full speed…

…click on the above link to read the rest…

The $31 Trillion Dollar Question – Can The Fed Afford to Pivot?

October 8, 2022

The $31 Trillion Dollar Question – Can The Fed Afford to Pivot?

In my other role as a secret apologist for Russia and Vladimir Putin, I was contacted yesterday by Sputnik News to comment on the official US debt number surpassing $31 trillion. I’m always grateful for the opportunity to talk about these issues.

I am, after all, a fiscal hawk extraordinaire,.

At the same time, I’m completely hip to why Sputnik (and RT) wanted to discuss this issue. They are running their own framing campaign, propaganda if you will. I’m no one’s useful idiot when it comes to these matters.

They may have been looking for a dissident American voice to berate the US for its reckless spending, which fits the Russian media narrative that the US cannot sustain its current pressure campaign against Russia.

This is meant to counter the West’s narrative that Russia can’t sustain its military operations in Ukraine.

Hey, everyone’s got a truth to tell. I get it, it’s a war out there. All I can do is make the best use of the opportunities in front of me and tell my version of those truths. Because talking about things truthfully may actually get us one step back on the path towards peace rather than global war. That said, if I see no upside to the opportunity, the best thing to do is turn it down politely and wait for the next one.

At the same time we all have to realize that Russian media outlets have a hard time booking guests at this point due to the massive political pressure. So, as always, I see the opportunity as a way to talk to everyone to further understanding these things, not just feed one side’s attempt to shift the Overton Window.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Peter Schiff: A Massive Fiscal Time Bomb

October 7, 2022

Peter Schiff: A Massive Fiscal Time Bomb

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell knew fighting inflation would cause big problems in a bubble economy loaded up with debt. He put it off as long as he could, calling inflation “transitory.” But once inflation became a huge problem, the central bank had no choice but to get into the fight and start tightening monetary policy. The problem is, the Fed’s plan won’t work. And one reason it won’t work is the massive national debt.

Peter Schiff talked about it in this clip from his podcast.

The federal government already spends about $500 billion per year on interest payments on the $31 trillion debt. Peter noted a CNBC discussion where they speculated that in 10 years, the US government could be paying $1 trillion per year on interest alone.

Ten years? We could be paying $1 trillion in interest in one year! How are these guys getting 10 years?”

Four percent of the $31 trillion debt is $1.25 trillion. The average maturity on the debt is under five years. A third of the debt will mature in the next year. Meanwhile, the debt continues to skyrocket. The national debt grew by $1 trillion in just eight months even with pandemic spending programs winding down.

Five years from now, the national debt will be over $40 trillion, and we’re going to have to pay an interest rate probably more than 5% on that. So, a $1 trillion tab for interest on the national debt isn’t a decade away. It’s a year, maybe two away. That’s how close this crisis is.”

That raises an important question: where is the government going to get the money to pay for this? It will cost something like 30% of all tax revenue just to pay the interest on the debt. Huge interest payments will mean even more borrowing.

This is a massive fiscal time bomb.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Central Banks, Global Debt & COVID

July 26, 2022

Central Banks, Global Debt & COVID

Ed Dowd summarizes his career and insights as a successful stock picking “conspiracy theorist”.

I first met Ed Dowd during an early trip which a group of physicians from the International Alliance of Physicians and Medical Scientists (www.globalcovidsummit.com) made to the Hawaiian Islands of Maui and Oahu during the fall of 2021.  The primary purpose of the trip was to support our physician colleagues Dr. Kirk Milhoan (MD, PhD- Pediatric Cardiologist) and Lorrin Pang (MD, MPH- Maui County Public Health Officer), who were embroiled in an effort by local press and politicians to take their medical licenses for the perceived infraction of supporting early COVID treatment and (in the case of Lorrin) relying on his own evaluation and interpretation of the safety and effectiveness of the COVID-19 genetic vaccines.  The particular grievance concerning Lorrin seemed to have revolved around his reservations concerning the lack of data demonstrating safety of SARS-CoV-2 genetic vaccination during pregnancy.  After many long months subjected to the usual defamation and derision in local corporate-controlled media, both were eventually exonerated.  No final action was taken against them by the Hawaiian medical board, although both were deeply impacted by the experience, and I suspect will forever be more guarded and defensive in their medical practices.

It was during a local group dinner and fundraiser for the cause, held on the island of Maui, that Ed and his colleagues first introduced themselves to me. To my surprise, they indicated that they had authored a document which they named “The Malone Doctrine”.  Taken aback, as neither Jill nor I had contributed in any way, I asked why they were using this name.  Ed and his colleagues told me that “we have read and listened to everything you have said and written during COVID, and this is what is written in the white spaces between every line”…

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

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