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Four Reasons Central Banks are Wrong to Fight Deflation

Four Reasons Central Banks are Wrong to Fight Deflation

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The word “deflation” can be defined in various ways. According to the most widely accepted definition today, deflation is a sustained decrease of the price level. Older authors have often used the expression “deflation” to denote a decreasing money supply, and some contemporary authors use it to characterize a decrease of the inflation rate. All of these definitions are acceptable, depending on the purpose of the analysis. None of them, however, lends itself to justifying an artificial increase of the money supply.

The harmful character of deflation is today one of the sacred dogmas of monetary policy. The champions of the fight against deflation usually present six arguments to make their case.1 One, in their eyes it is a matter of historical experience that deflation has negative repercussions on aggregate production and, therefore, on the standard of living. To explain this presumed historical record, they hold, two, that deflation incites the market participants to postpone buying because they speculate on ever lower prices. Furthermore, they consider, three, that a declining price level makes it more difficult to service debts contracted at a higher price level in the past. These difficulties threaten to entail, four, a crisis within the banking industry and thus a dramatic curtailment of credit. Five, they claim that deflation in conjunction with “sticky prices” results in unemployment. And finally, six, they consider that deflation might reduce nominal interest rates to such an extent that a monetary policy of “cheap money,” to stimulate employment and production, would no longer be possible, because the interest rate cannot be decreased below zero.

However, theoretical and empirical evidence substantiating these claims is either weak or lacking altogether.2 First, in historical fact, deflation has had no clear negative impact on aggregate production.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Canadian banks set to reveal quarterly earnings amid housing & debt concerns

Ratings agency Moody's downgraded the credit ratings for Canada's big banks earlier this month, citing concerns that over-stretched borrowers and high house prices have left lenders vulnerable to potential losses.

Ratings agency Moody’s downgraded the credit ratings for Canada’s big banks earlier this month, citing concerns that over-stretched borrowers and high house prices have left lenders vulnerable to potential losses. (Dillon Hodgin/CBC)

The Canadian banks are expected to benefit from rising U.S. interest rates and fewer bad loans in the oilpatch as they start reporting their latest quarterly results this week, but analysts say worries about the housing market and consumer debt remain key concerns.

“The reality is that given all of the fears about the Canadian mortgage market, I think that even if the results are good, people will dismiss them as being backward-looking,” said analyst Meny Grauman of Cormark Securities.

The Bank of Montreal will kick off the earnings parade on Wednesday, followed by Royal Bank, TD Bank and CIBC  on Thursday. Scotiabank will report May 30.

Edward Jones analyst Jim Shanahan said fee income from trading activities and other types of charges was a key driver of earnings growth last quarter.

That likely moderated during the second quarter, but a strengthening in net-interest margins — stemming from U.S. interest rate hikes in December and March — will likely pick up some of the slack, he said.

BMO and TD are most likely to benefit from the rate increases, Shanahan said.

The banks could also see some improvement in their loan loss provisions as stability has returned to the oilpatch.

“From a credit perspective we should see some continued improvement within the oil and gas portfolios,” Shanahan said.

However, analysts said concerns about high home prices, debt-laden consumers and a liquidity crisis at mortgage lender Home Capital Group  could all weigh on the bank stocks.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

China Capitulates: Injects $25 Billion Into Liquidity-Starved Banks To “Appease Investors”

China Capitulates: Injects $25 Billion Into Liquidity-Starved Banks To “Appease Investors”

Is China’s push to deleverage its financial system over?

That is the question following last night’s dramatic reversal in recent PBOC liquidity moves, when after weeks of mostly draining liquidity, the central bank injected a whopping 170 billion yuan (net of maturities), or $24.7 billion, the biggest one-day cash injection into the country’s financial markets (and contracting shadow banking system as first reported here last week, when we showed the first drop in China Entrusted Loans in a decade) in four months. The surprising move was “a fresh sign that Beijing is trying to mitigate the damage to investor confidence inflicted by its recent campaign to tamp down speculation fueled by excessive borrowing” according to the WSJ.

Today’s injection was the the largest since just before the Lunar New Year holiday in January, when Chinese banks traditionally stock up on liquidity.

Why the sudden shift?

On one hand it is possible that the PBOC is simple concerned about the sharp decline, and in fact contraction, in China’s shadow banking system, where as we showed last week Entrusted Loans posted their first decline since 2007 even as China’s M2 continued to decline.

 

The huge cash injection followed comments from Chinese officials in recent days which hinted they are getting concerned that recent moves to tighten market regulation have caused too much disruption. As a reminder, in recent weeks money market rates and yields on corporate bonds had all shot up to multi-year highs.

The real reason may be simpler: with a major leadership shuffle due later this year, the central bank is not taking even the smallest chances of turmoil in the banking sector. and as such admitted that – once again like in 2013 – its posturing to delever the world’s most leveraged financial system was just that. The WSJ has more:

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

It’s time to become your own banker. Here’s how–

It’s time to become your own banker. Here’s how–

Sometimes I wonder why most of the giant mega-banks are based in New York.

They should be here in Las Vegas, the gambling capital of the world. Because that’s precisely what they’re doing with your money.

Actually it’s not even your money.

From a legal perspective, every single penny you deposit at the bank becomes THEIR money. You’re nothing more than an unsecured creditor of the bank.

And now that they legally own what used to be your money, the bank can gamble it away on whatever crazy investment fad best serves their interests.

Here’s an easy way to understand it:

Imagine you were moving and needed to rent a storage facility for a few months to store your stuff.

You rent a U-Haul and move everything into the storage unit.

The way banking works, the second you drive away, the storage company now owns your furniture. Not you.

And as the brand new owners of what used to be your furniture, the storage company can do whatever they want with it.

They can rent out the furniture to another customer, charging steep fees to let a complete stranger sit on your sofa and watch your TV.

(Naturally you’ll never see a penny of that money.)

Of course, that complete stranger might not treat your furniture all that well. He might even destroy it. No more furniture.

Often the facilities get in on the business together; one storage company will rent your furniture to another company, which rents it to another, and then another.

After a while no one actually knows where your sofa is. But it doesn’t matter because the storage companies are all making lots of money, and few people ever really ask.

Eventually their standards drop so low that they stop performing credit checks altogether when someone wants to rent furniture from them.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Contagion: Home Capital Bank Run Spreads To Another Canadian Mortgage Lender

Contagion: Home Capital Bank Run Spreads To Another Canadian Mortgage Lender

As discussed first thing this morning, the fate of Canada’s largest alternative mortgage lender, Home Capital Group, appears to have been decided over the weekend, when in the span of just one week, over 70% of the company’s deposit base had been withdrawn, effectively mothballing the business, leaving just a sale or liquidation as the two possible outcomes even as a $2 billion emergency line of credit keeps the company afloat, at least until HCG’s $12.8 billion in GICS mature some time over the next 30 to 60 days.

Predictably, the news of the ongoing bank run once again spooked shareholders, who sent its stock sliding by 10%, and wiping out two-thirds of the company’s market cap in under 2 weeks.

A bigger red flag emerged when concerns about possible contagion appeared to have been justified Canada’s Equitable Group, another alternative mortgage lender, said Monday it had started seeing “an elevated but manageable” decrease in deposit balances, traditionally a polite way by management to admit a bank jog is taking place. The company said that customers had withdrawn an average C$75 million each day between Wednesday and Friday, and while the withdrawals so far are modest, and represented 2.4% of the total deposit base, the recent HCG case study showed how quickly such a bank run could escalate. And while liquid assets remained at roughly C$1 billion after the outflows, the company also announced that it had taken out its own C$2 billion credit line with a group of Canadian banks, just in case the bank run was only getting started.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Italy Warns Sudden Collapse Of Alitalia Would Lead To “Great Shock” For The Economy

Italy Warns Sudden Collapse Of Alitalia Would Lead To “Great Shock” For The Economy

That Italy has a bank solvency problem will not come as a surprise to anyone who has been following events in Europe for the past 7 years.

Just yesterday, Italian daily La Stampa reported that four months after the third government bailout of Italy’s third largest bank in as many years, the Italian government may have to inject even more cash than planned into Monte Paschi, the world’s oldest and apparently always insolvent bank.

Stampa cited the outcome of an ECB inspection, focusing on uncertainties from the bank’s planned bad loan reduction. The Italian daily noted that the ECB had communicated results of its inspection to the bank last week, noting that losses are now expected to be well above those calculated until now. Specifically, while the proposed €8.8BN recapitalization would be sufficient to take the bank’s CET1 above the required regulatory level, it would not be sufficient to meet the ECB SREP requirements, raising the risk the government will have to contribute more than the €6.6BN currently envisaged.

But while Monte Paschi continues to be a perpetual drain of taxpayer funds, the most imminent threat facing the Italian economy comes not from the banking sector, but from its just as troubled national airline carrier. Last week, Alitalia said it had exhausted all options after workers voted against job cuts aimed at salvaging the cash-strapped Italian airline, pushing it toward administration for the second time in a decade.

According to Bloomberg, a €2 billion recapitalization tied to the savings plan is effectively dead and Alitalia would start appropriate “legal procedures” as funds run out, the Rome-based airline said. Chairman Luca Cordero Di Montezemolo “formally” communicated to the Italy aviation authority that the carrier decided to start the process of naming a administrator, the authority said on its website last Tuesday.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Trying to Save Monte Paschi – Oldest Bank in the World

Monte-Dei-Paschi-1The EU Commission is looking to bailout Monte Paschi by almost eliminating more than 5,000 jobs. The Monte Paschi plan that was presented last October called for 2600 layoffs. It is the oldest surviving bank in the world and the third largest Italian commercial and retail bank by total assets. This makes it a critical bank in Italy. It has been struggling to avoid a collapse. It was founded in 1472 by the magistrates of the city state of Siena as a “mount of piety” by name.

PiccolominiIt was Pope Gregory IX (1127-1241) who became the first Pope to appoint a noble merchant family of Siena as the official Papal depository in 1233 – the Piccolomini headed by Angeliero Solafico. The appointment of the Piccolomini family as the Papal Depository in 1233, led to Siena rising to become the first Financial Capital of Europe emerging at this time.

The Piccolomini family rose in credibility among all the merchants. Their Palazzo Piccolomini still exists which was their Palace. Eventually, their family would later produce two Popes, Pius II (1458-1464) and Pius III (1503). The Piccolomini were conservative merchants who had offices in Genoa, Venice, Aquileria. Triests, and above the Alps they opened both in France and Germany.

Siena was therefore the rebirth of banking after the Dark Age. The Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena was founded by order of the Magistrature of the Republic of Siena as Monte di Pietà back in 1472. Since then the bank has been in operation without interruption to the present day. It formed on the second economic expansionary wave that came 224 years after the birth of the first economic wave in the 13th century.

CIBC CEO explains why bank is replacing Canadian staff with workers from India

CIBC CEO explains why bank is replacing Canadian staff with workers from India

CEO Victor Dodig acknowledges that ‘outsourcing isn’t a popular decision’

CIBC CEO Victor Dodig sent a memo to staff on Friday to explain why the bank sometimes needs to outsource work to other countries.

CIBC CEO Victor Dodig sent a memo to staff on Friday to explain why the bank sometimes needs to outsource work to other countries. (Jeff McIntosh/Canadian Press)

CIBC’s CEO issued an internal staff memo Friday to address a CBC News story revealing that the bank is eliminating up to 130 Toronto finance jobs and outsourcing the work to India.

The article, which ran on Thursday, generated more than 2,000 comments on the CBC News site — many of them taking a negative view of CIBC’s decision to send the jobs overseas.

“I understand that outsourcing isn’t a popular decision,” wrote CEO Victor Dodig in the memo to employees. “It’s an emotional topic that I don’t want to shy away from because that’s not the culture that we have.”

The story only came to light because some CIBC workers facing layoffs complained to CBC News. They were particularly upset that they have to train other local CIBC employees who then train the workers in India who will be taking over the jobs.

“It feels like no one cares for us,” said one employee.

It’s not about the money

In his memo, Dodig laid out why the bank sometimes outsources jobs to other countries. Some affected employees said they believe CIBC is doing it in this case to save money — at a time when the bank had pulled in $1.4 billion in profit in the last quarter.

“It’s not as simple as you may read that it’s about cutting jobs or costs,” wrote Dodig. He said that outsourcing complements the work done by CIBC staff by helping manage peaks in demand, ensuring work can be done around the clock and helping the bank adapt to changing business needs.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Banks Are Evil

Barandash Karandashich/Shutterstock

Banks Are Evil

It’s time to get painfully honest about this 

I don’t talk to my classmates from business school anymore, many of whom went to work in the financial industry.

Why?

Because, through the lens we use here at PeakProsperity.com to look at the world, I’ve increasingly come to see the financial industry — with the big banks at its core — as the root cause of injustice in today’s society. I can no longer separate any personal affections I might have for my fellow alumni from the evil that their companies perpetrate.

And I’m choosing that word deliberately: Evil.

In my opinion, it’s long past time we be brutally honest about the banks. Their influence and reach has metastasized to the point where we now live under a captive system. From our retirement accounts, to our homes, to the laws we live under — the banks control it all. And they run the system for their benefit, not ours.

While the banks spent much of the past century consolidating their power, the repeal of the Glass-Steagall Actin 1999 emboldened them to accelerate their efforts. Since then, the key trends in the financial industry have been to dismantle regulation and defang those responsible for enforcing it, to manipulate market prices (an ambition tremendously helped by the rise of high-frequency trading algorithms), and to push downside risk onto “muppets” and taxpayers.

Oh, and of course, this hasn’t hurt either: having the ability to print up trillions in thin-air money and then get first-at-the-trough access to it. Don’t forget, the Federal Reserve is made up of and run by — drum roll, please — the banks.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Whose Banks Are Riskiest: A Surprising Answer From The BIS

Whose Banks Are Riskiest: A Surprising Answer From The BIS

When one thinks of unstable, risky banking systems, the first thing that comes to mind are visions of insolvent, state-backed building – with or without long ATM lines – in China, Greece, Italy or, in recent times, Germany. However, according to the most recent report by the Bank for International Settlements, the country with the riskiest banking system is neither of these, and is a rather “unusual suspect.”

As part of its latest quarterly report, the BIS looked at highlights of global financial flows, and found that after a modest slowdown in 2015, growth in both claims and international denominated debt securities resumed its rise in 2016, leaving banks even more exposed as counterparties to international issuers, especially should the world hit another “Dollar margin call” situation, where borrowers are unable to make payments on their obligations due to a surge in the global reserve currency.

However, cross-border international debt flows is just one aspect of bank riskiness. As part of a separate excercise profiling the domestic banking systems of some of the most prominent Developed and Emerging nations, the BIS looked at four distinct “risk” or crisis early warning indicators: i) Credit-to-GDP gap, or the difference in the current ratio from the long-run trend; ii) Property Price Gap, or the deviation of real residential property prices from their long-run trend, iii) Debt Service Ratio (DSR), which also is the deviation in the current DSR from the long-run average, and finally iv) DSR assuming a 2.50% increase in interest rates.

What it found is that the early warning indicators for financial crises continue to signal vulnerabilities in several jurisdictions. Here is what it found:

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Unaware and Misinformed–Exactly How They Like Us

UNAWARE AND MISINFORMED – EXACTLY HOW THEY LIKE US

I should start this out with a disclaimer. I worked as a financial planner and stock broker for 25 years and really didn’t begin to grasp the true mechanics of the financial system until nearly 10 years in. It took even longer for the magnitude of the crony capitalist corruption to sink in. I was indoctrinated by book and exam, scored extremely high in the various licensing and accreditation examinations (meaning I had fully swallowed my programming) and successfully parroted what I had learned.

It was only when the stink from the long dead skunk in the woodpile became overwhelming and could no longer be ignored did I begin to probe and seriously question both the financial ‘authorities’, the prevailing financial meme and myself. So when I come across others who are following the same path while blindfolded I am not casting stones. Instead, I am illustrating how we are all deeply immersed in many alternative reality memes even as I focus on this one in particular.

That said, let me begin.

I walked into a branch of ‘my’ bank the other day to make a deposit. It was mid afternoon and clearly a slow period for the bank because there were four tellers available and not another ‘customer’ in sight. Proving to all I was well trained and obedient, I followed the velvet and gold rope lined customer cattle chute and waited passively at the head of the ‘line’ to be summoned.

Thankfully the wait was not long.

The teller (Anna) greeted me pleasantly (obviously grateful for the distraction I afforded her) and asked how she could be of assistance. Stating my purpose, I plopped down my fake fiat and promptly engaged her in small talk. Having worked in the main branch of a bank as the resident financial planner (aka financial product salesman) for nearly ten years, I fully understand how monotonous the teller position can be at times.

 

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Italian Banking Crisis: No Free Lunch – Or Is There?

The Italian Banking Crisis: No Free Lunch – Or Is There?

It has been called “a bigger risk than Brexit”– the Italian banking crisis that could take down the eurozone. Handwringing officials say “there is no free lunch” and “no magic bullet.” But UK Prof. Richard Werner says the magic bullet is just being ignored. 

On December 4, 2016, Italian voters rejected a referendum to amend their constitution to give the government more power, and the Italian prime minister resigned. The resulting chaos has pushed Italy’s already-troubled banks into bankruptcy. First on the chopping block is the 500 year old Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA (BMP), the oldest surviving bank in the world and the third largest bank in Italy. The concern is that its loss could trigger the collapse of other banks and even of the eurozone itself.

There seems little doubt that BMP and other insolvent banks will be rescued. The biggest banks are always rescued, no matter how negligent or corrupt, because in our existing system, banks create the money we use in trade. Virtually the entire money supply is now created by banks when they make loans, as the Bank of England has acknowledged. When the banks collapse, economies collapse, because bank-created money is the grease that oils the wheels of production.

So the Italian banks will no doubt be rescued. The question is, how? Normally, distressed banks can raise cash by selling their non-performing loans (NPLs) to other investors at a discount; but recovery on the mountain of Italian bad debts is so doubtful that foreign investors are unlikely to bite. In the past, bankrupt too-big-to-fail banks have sometimes been nationalized. That discourages “moral hazard” – rewarding banks for bad behavior – but it’s at the cost of imposing the bad debts on the government. Further, new EU rules require a “bail in” before a government bailout, something the Italian government is desperate to avoid.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

UBS Warns: Spain’s “Most Italian Bank” Runs Out of Options

UBS Warns: Spain’s “Most Italian Bank” Runs Out of Options

The bank-bailout business rages on.

During the first week of 2017, Spain’s “most Italian bank”, Banco Popular, got off to a flying start as its stock outperformed all other major Spanish banks. By Jan 5th its shares had even crossed the €1-line for the first time in nearly a month. But Popular’s New Year fairy tale was not made to last.

Its upward momentum, if that’s the right term, was brought to a halt by a bombshell report from UBS that concludes that Popular’s stock, which already lost three-quarters of its value last year and is down over 90% since 2008, is still overvalued by 20%. In less than an hour, Popular’s shares were back under a euro. That’s life in the penny-stock lane.

According to the report, Popular has a provision deficit of €1.9 billion. In other words, it has nonperforming loans and other toxic assets on its books whose losses would amount to €1.9 billion. But it has not yet booked (or “recognized”) those losses. If it did finally recognize those losses, it could end up with a €2.4 billion capital gap. That’s the equivalent of roughly 60% of its current market cap.

The UBS analysts acknowledged that their previous forecast of the bank’s capacity to absorb loss provisions had been “too optimistic”, with the new estimates showing a lower coverage ratio (46% compared to the previous 50%) and capital ratio (10% instead of 10.8%).

UBS also poured cold water on the idea of Banco Popular further expanding its bad-debt provisions, since doing so would “permanently depress” its profitability, limiting its capacity to create new capital and increasing its regulatory risk. This is bad news for a bank that continues to drown in its own toxic soup eight years after the burst of Spain’s mind-boggling real estate bubble.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Money Creation and the Boom-Bust Cycle

In his various writings, Murray Rothbard argued that in a free market economy that operates on a gold standard, the creation of credit that is not fully backed up by gold (fractional-reserve banking) sets in motion the menace of the boom-bust cycle. In his The Case for 100 Percent Gold Dollar Rothbard wrote:

I therefore advocate as the soundest monetary system and the only one fully compatible with the free market and with the absence of force or fraud from any source a 100 percent gold standard. This is the only system compatible with the fullest preservation of the rights of property. It is the only system that assures the end of inflation and, with it, of the business cycle. (1)

Murray Rothbard was convinced that we should return to a sound monetary system based on the market-chosen money commodity gold. Note that the use of gold as money as such cannot keep banks from issuing fiduciary media (a.k.a. uncovered money substitutes). The important thing is therefore that the monetary and banking system are free. A free banking system will develop along sound lines of its own accord, not least because banks have to continually clear transactions between each other and will tend to shun overextended lenders. A free market monetary/ banking system would likely be different from today’s system in numerous aspects, but it would be just as sophisticated and efficient. Most importantly, it would be economically sound and the likelihood that severe business cycles emerge would be vastly lower. Photo via mises.org

Some economists such as George Selgin and Lawrence White have contested this view. In his article in The Independent Review George Selgin argued that it is not true that fractional-reserve banking must always set in motion the menace of the boom-bust cycle. According to Selgin:

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

China Moves Forward with Its De-Dollarization Strategy

China Moves Forward with Its De-Dollarization Strategy 

The world monetary order is changing. Slowly but steadily, global trade and currency markets are becoming less dollar-centric. Formerly marginal currencies such as the Chinese yuan now stand to become serious competitors to U.S. dollar dominance.

Could gold also begin to emerge as a leading currency in world trade? Over time, it certainly could. But the more immediate implications for gold’s monetary role center on its increasing accumulation by central banks such as China’s.

As of October 1st, the Chinese yuan has entered the International Monetary Fund’s Special Drawing Right (SDR) basket of top-tier currencies. It now shares SDR status with the U.S. dollar, euro, British pound, and Japanese yen.

Before the yuan officially becomes an SDR currency, the World Bank intends to sell $2.8 billion in SDR bonds in Chinese markets. The rollout of SDR bonds in China began August 31st. According to Reuters, China’s promotion of SDR bonds “is part of a wider push in China to… boost demand for Chinese yuan and diminish reliance on the U.S. dollar in global reserves.”

King Dollar won’t be dethroned overnight. But the place of prominence the U.S. dollar enjoys as the world’s reserve currency will indeed diminish over time.

Yuan’s Inclusion in the SDR Currency Basket: Merely a Part of China’s De-Dollarization Strategy

China and Russia have mutual geostrategic interests in helping to promote de-dollarization. Toward that end, the two powers are engaging in bilateral trade deals that bypass the dollar. Annual bilateral trade between China and Russia has surged from $16 billion in 2003 to nearly $100 billion today. When China hosted the G20 summit in September, it will make Russian President Vladimir Putin its premier guest of honor.

U.S. officials are none too pleased. They fear Putin aims to expand his global reach by forging stronger ties with China.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

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