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The Tragedy Of The Euro
The Tragedy Of The Euro After two decades, the euro’s minders look set to drive the Eurozone into deep trouble. December was the last month of the ECB’s monthly purchases of government debt. A softening global economy will increase government deficits unexpectedly. The consequence will be a new cycle of sharply rising bond yields for […]
The Eurozone Is in a Danger Zone
The Eurozone Is in a Danger Zone It is easy to conclude the EU, and the Eurozone in particular, is a financial and systemic time-bomb waiting to happen. Most commentary has focused on problems that are routinely patched over, such as Greece, Italy, or the impending rescue of Deutsche Bank. This is a mistake. The […]
The Arrival Of The Credit Crisis
The Arrival Of The Credit Crisis Those of us who closely follow the credit cycle should not be surprised by the current slide in equity markets. It was going to happen anyway. The timing had recently become apparent as well, and in early August I was able to write the following: “The timing for the […]
Gold – A Perfect Storm For 2019
Gold – A Perfect Storm For 2019 This article is an overview of the principal factors likely to drive the gold price in 2019. It looks at the global factors that have developed in 2018 for both gold and the dollar, how geopolitics are likely to evolve, the economic outlook and how it is worsened […]
G20 and the financial war
G20 and the financial war This weekend, the G20 nations meet at Buenos Aires. The most important issue will be America’s use of trade policy, ostensibly to bring an end to China’s unfair trade practices. Rather, it could mark a significant milestone in the cold war against China and drive the global economy into a […]
Does China Have Enough Gold to Move Toward Hard Currency?
Does China Have Enough Gold to Move Toward Hard Currency? Are the Chinese Keynesian? We can be reasonably certain that Chinese government officials approaching middle age have been heavily westernised through their education. Nowhere is this likely to matter more than in the fields of finance and economics. In these disciplines there is perhaps a […]
The biggest of big pictures
The biggest of big pictures I have had a request from Mrs Macleod to write down in simple terms what on earth is going on in the world, and why is it that I think gold is so important in this context. She-who-must-be-obeyed does not fully share my interest in the subject. An explanation of […]
How Gibson’s paradox has been buried
How Gibson’s paradox has been buried Until the 1970s, all recorded history showed that bond yields were tied to the general price level, not the rate of price inflation as commonly believed. However, since then, the statistics say this is no longer the case, and bond yields are increasingly influenced by the rate of price […]
The Credit Cycle is on the Turn
THE CREDIT CYCLE IS ON THE TURN We are on the verge of moving into an era of high interest rates, so markets will behave differently from any time since the early-1980s. There are enough similarities with the post-Bretton Woods era of the 1970s to give us some guidance as to how markets are likely […]
We Should Ditch GDP as a Measure of Economic Activity
WE SHOULD DITCH GDP AS A MEASURE OF ECONOMIC ACTIVITY This article exposes the false economic concepts behind GDP, which is only the visible tip of a large iceberg of economic deceit. Describing an increase in GDP as economic growth owes its meagre validity to imprecise definition. An economy does not grow, only the quantity […]
John Law and the Mississippi Bubble – 300 Years Later
John Law and the Mississippi Bubble – 300 Years Later Most people are aware that historically there have been speculative bubbles. Some of them can even name a few – the South Sea bubble, tulips, and more recently dot-coms. Some historians can go even further, quoting the famous account by Charles Mackay of the South […]
Apocalypse, Or Not?
Apocalypse, Or Not? Members of the American libertarian movement, particularly extremist preppers, are often associated with a belief that a complete breakdown in society is the only outcome from government economic policies and will lead to complete social disintegration. At the centre of their concerns is monetary destruction, with other issues, such as the erosion […]
Turkey’s Crisis and the Dollar’s Future
Turkey’s Crisis and the Dollar’s Future Last week’s collapse of the Turkish lira has dominated the headlines, and it is widely reported that this and other emerging market currencies are in trouble because of the withdrawal of dollar liquidity. There are huge quantities of footloose dollars betting against these weak currencies, as well as commodities […]
Macroeconomics Has Lost Its Way
MACROECONOMICS HAS LOST ITS WAY The father of modern macroeconomics was Keynes. Before Keynes there were macro considerations, which were firmly grounded in human action, the personal preferences and choices exercised by individuals in the context of their own earnings and profits. In order to give a role to the state, Keynes had to get […]
Macroeconomics Has Lost Its Way
Macroeconomics Has Lost Its Way The father of modern macroeconomics was Keynes. Before Keynes there were macro considerations, which were firmly grounded in human action, the personal preferences and choices exercised by individuals in the context of their own earnings and profits. In order to give a role to the state, Keynes had to get […]
