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It’s time to become your own banker. Here’s how–

It’s time to become your own banker. Here’s how–

Sometimes I wonder why most of the giant mega-banks are based in New York.

They should be here in Las Vegas, the gambling capital of the world. Because that’s precisely what they’re doing with your money.

Actually it’s not even your money.

From a legal perspective, every single penny you deposit at the bank becomes THEIR money. You’re nothing more than an unsecured creditor of the bank.

And now that they legally own what used to be your money, the bank can gamble it away on whatever crazy investment fad best serves their interests.

Here’s an easy way to understand it:

Imagine you were moving and needed to rent a storage facility for a few months to store your stuff.

You rent a U-Haul and move everything into the storage unit.

The way banking works, the second you drive away, the storage company now owns your furniture. Not you.

And as the brand new owners of what used to be your furniture, the storage company can do whatever they want with it.

They can rent out the furniture to another customer, charging steep fees to let a complete stranger sit on your sofa and watch your TV.

(Naturally you’ll never see a penny of that money.)

Of course, that complete stranger might not treat your furniture all that well. He might even destroy it. No more furniture.

Often the facilities get in on the business together; one storage company will rent your furniture to another company, which rents it to another, and then another.

After a while no one actually knows where your sofa is. But it doesn’t matter because the storage companies are all making lots of money, and few people ever really ask.

Eventually their standards drop so low that they stop performing credit checks altogether when someone wants to rent furniture from them.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Just a quick reminder of who’s really in charge

This happens several times each year as the central bank’s Federal Open Market Committee gathers to set monetary policy in the Land of the Free.

To be clear, there is no greater power over a nation than having control of its money supply and interest rates.

Think about it: interest rates influence just about EVERYTHING in the economy.

Changes in interest rates influence housing prices, company stock prices, retail sales, food prices, oil prices, and major business purchases.

Interest rates have a significant impact over employment, business investment, inflation, and the currency’s international exchange rate.

Increases in the interest rate even have the power to bring a government to its knees.

This is pretty extraordinary power. And it has been awarded to an unelected committee that has an astonishing track record of getting it wrong.

Former Fed chair Ben Bernanke famously predicted in January 2008 that “the Federal Reserve is currently NOT forecasting a recession.”

It turns out that the recession had officially started one month before in December 2007.

While that’s just one small example, the numbers show that these guys perpetually miss the mark.

In January 2011 the Fed projected 2011 GDP growth would be 3.7%. It turned out to be 2%. So proportionally speaking they were off by 85%.

In January 2012 they predicted 2.5% growth that year. Actual growth in 2012 was 1.6%, so they were ‘only’ off by 56%.

Their 2016 GDP growth forecast was 2.4%, while actual growth was 1.6%, another 50% error.

And just recently for the first quarter of 2017, the Fed’s predictions were 1.2% growth, while actual GDP growth was just 0.7%… a 70%+ overshoot.

Here’s the funny thing– even the Federal Reserve’s own internal study shows that they consistently miss the mark in their projections.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

This bubble finally burst. Which one’s next?

Like so many other high-flying Silicon Valley startups, Clinkle was supposed to ‘make the world a better place’.

Founded in 2011 by a guy barely out of his teens, the company picked up early buzz after proclaiming they would disrupt mobile payments. Or something.

Silicon Valley venture capital firms were apparently so impressed with the idea that they showered the company with an unprecedented level of cash.

(Given that investing in an early stage company is high-risk, investors might provide a few hundred thousand dollars in funding, at most. Clinkle raised $25 million.)

The company went on to burn through just about every penny of its investors’ capital.

There were even photos that surfaced of the 21-year old CEO literally setting bricks of cash on fire.

At the end of the farce, Clinkle never actually managed to build its supposedly ‘world-changing’ product, and the website is now all but defunct.

This is rapidly becoming a familiar story in Silicon Valley.

For the last 6-7 years, Silicon Valley startups have been able to raise unbelievable amounts of cash.

Yet so many of those companies haven’t managed to turn a profit. Ever.

There’s some of the big names like Uber and AirBnb which are supposedly worth tens of billions of dollars despite having racked up enormous losses.

(Last year ride-sharing company Lyft promised investors that it would cap its losses at ‘only’ $600 million per year. . .)

But there are countless other examples of startups being anointed with absurd valuations and continually replenished with fresh capital even though they keep losing money… and have no plan to ever make money.

Snapchat’s investment prospective summed it up best:

“We have incurred operating losses in the past, expect to incur operating losses in the future, and may never achieve or maintain profitability.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

An interesting perspective on the War on Cash

An interesting perspective on the War on Cash

It’s happening faster than we could have ever imagined.

Every time we turn around, it seems, there’s another major assault in the War on Cash.

India is the most notable recent example– the embarrassing debacle a few weeks ago in which the government, overnight, “demonetized” its two largest denominations of cash, leaving an entire nation in chaos.

But there have been so many smaller examples.

In the US city of New Orleans, the local government decided earlier this month to stop accepting cash payments from drivers at the Office of Motor Vehicles.

As I wrote to you recently, several branches of Citibank in Australia have stopped dealing in cash altogether.

And former US Treasury Secretary Larry Summers published an article last week stating that “nothing in the Indian experience gives us pause in recommending that no more large notes be created in the United States, Europe, and around the world.”

In other words, despite the India chaos, Summers thinks we should still curtail the $100 bill.

The conclave of the high priests of monetary policy almost invariably sings the same chorus: only criminals and terrorists use high denominations of cash.

Ken Rogoff, Harvard professor and former official at the International Monetary Fund and Federal Reserve, recently published a book blatantly entitled The Curse of Cash.

Ben Bernanke’s called it a “fascinating and important book”.

And, shockingly, a number of reviews on Amazon.com praise “brilliant” Rogoff’s “visionary concepts” in his “excellent book”.

Rogoff, like most of his colleagues, contends that large bills like the $100 or 500 euro note are only used in “drug trade, extortion, bribes, human trafficking. . .”

In fact they jokingly refer to the 500-euro note as the “Bin Laden” since it’s apparently only used by terrorists.

Give me a break.

My team and I did some of research on this and found some rather interesting data.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Three reasons why the banking system is rigged against you

Three reasons why the banking system is rigged against you

If there were ever any doubt about how completely RIGGED the banking system is against depositors, allow me to introduce the following:

Exhibit A: Governments are working to make banks LESS safe

Yesterday an unelected bureaucrat that no one has ever heard of made a stunning announcement that has sweeping implications for anyone with a bank account.

Dombrovskis is Europe’s top financial services official, so he controls bank regulations in the European Union.

He issued a stern warning to global bank regulators yesterday that he is prepared to reject any further plans they might have to tighten bank capital requirements.

This might sound rather dry, but it’s incredibly important.

“Bank capital” is the most critical component of any bank balance sheet.

Capital is like a bank’s rainy day fund; when things start to go bad, a bank’s capital provides a margin of safety to ensure that their depositors’ funds are safe.

Strong banks have ample capital and are able to withstand crises.

Weak banks with low levels of capital collapse. And that’s precisely what happened in 2008.

Most banks across the west had very low levels of capital. They had spent years making appallingly stupid ‘no money down’ loans with 0% teaser interest rates to borrowers with pitiful credit.

When that bubble burst, the banks lost billions of dollars. And it turned out that most of the banks at the time had razor thin levels of capital.

If you’re wondering why, the answer is quite simple: the less capital a bank maintains, the more money it can invest… so poorly capitalized banks tend to make more money.

Lehman Brothers was quite profitable.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Former Treasury Secretary says banks may be riskier now than in the 2008 crisis

Former Treasury Secretary says banks may be riskier now than in the 2008 crisis

“Sir. SIR! This your bag,” the TSA agent barked at me last week, more as a statement than a question.

“It is.”

“Are you carrying any liquids?”

I knew immediately; I had forgotten about the bottle of water that I had shoved in my briefcase before checking out of my hotel.

They opened my bag and confiscated the water bottle immediately with an extra harrumph to make sure I knew that I had wasted their time.

Yeah, I get it. I broke the rule. But it’s such a ridiculous rule to begin with.

Are we really supposed to pretend that Miami International Airport is any safer because there’s a brand new, unopened Dasani bottle in the TSA wastebin?

You may recall how Istanbul’s Ataturk Airport was attacked on June 28th by men armed with automatic weapons and explosives.

Ataturk was already one of the most security-conscious airports in the world– you actually have to go through a security checkpoint just to enter the building, followed by a second security checkpoint on your way to the gate.

And yet, despite all of this extra security, 41 people were killed and hundreds more wounded in an attack that shows just how ineffective airport security really is.

Airport security isn’t real security. It’s merely the illusion of security– a bunch of busybodies in uniforms enforcing pointless rules to make people believe that they’re safer.

Candidly, our financial system has borrowed the same principle. There’s no real safety in our financial system– merely the illusion of safety.

Leading up to the 2008 financial crisis, most people thought the banks were safe.

After all, we’ve been told our entire lives that the banks are rock solid. What could go wrong?

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Police seize over 5,000 ounces of silver from man’s home

Police seize over 5,000 ounces of silver from man’s home

Last week in the Australian state of Queensland, federal police confiscated a whopping 5,465 ounces of silver (worth roughly $106,000) from a man’s home.

This was part of a larger series of police raids instigated by the Australian Tax Office against individuals suspected of tax evasion.

Two obvious lessons come to mind which bear repeating:

1) As we discussed yesterday, only an idiot commits tax fraud or tax evasion. This goes without saying.

There are far too many completely legitimate ways to reduce or even eliminate what you owe… which means there’s absolutely zero reason to take any chances by wilfully breaking the law.

I know this doesn’t apply to the vast majority of people reading this, but if you are one of the handful of people out there who has been noncompliant with taxes, definitely consider your options to get it fixed.

They will find out eventually.

It’ll be a much better outcome that you step forward and admit a mistake than wait for the inevitable federal agents to kick down your door in the middle of the night.

2) Don’t keep the majority of your assets at home

I’m sure that at least some of the people who were subject to the Australian Tax Authority’s raids probably did commit tax evasion.

But there are probably many who didn’t… people who just happened to end up on the agency’s list through some honest misunderstanding.

Nevertheless, they still had federal police raiding their homes, confiscating anything that looked valuable, including cash and precious metals.

This could happen to anyone. Any of us could end up by mistake on the wrong side of some government agency’s list. It happens to innocent people every single day.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

This is how World War III starts—it will be financial

This is how World War III starts—it will be financial

In his History of the Peloponnesian War, ancient Greek historian Thucydides told us the tale of a dominant regional power (Sparta) that felt threatened by the rise of a competing power (Athens).

Sparta felt so threatened, in fact, that all the moves they made to keep the Athenian rise in check eventually escalated the power struggle into an all out war.

Modern political scientists call this the Thucydides Trap.

The idea is that when, out of fear, a dominant power takes certain steps to keep its competitor at bay, these actions ultimately lead to war between the two.

There’s a lot of concern that the US and China will fall into the Thucydides Trap.

This is certainly a valid concern. Both are nuclear superpowers with some of the largest militaries in the world.

But in 2016, modern warfare is not about tanks and aircraft carriers anymore. Modern warfare is insurgent, cyber, and financial.

In fact, if you look at the state of the financial system and the tactical brinksmanship between the US and China, it’s clear that the two are already in a Thucydides Trap.

This power struggle is leading to financial warfare of nuclear proportions; and as with any war, there will be a lot of casualties.

Just over the last several months we’ve seen many exchanges of fire between the two nations.

  • The US government claimed legal jurisdiction over the Bank of China, one of the largest banks on the mainland.
  • The Chinese launched the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, a supernational bank designed to compete with the Western-dominated IMF.
  • The US blacklisted one of China’s largest telecom companies, forbidding any US company from doing business with China’s ZTE.
  • China has been rapidly expanding its global payment network, UnionPay to become a direct competitor with Western systems like Maestro, Visa, and Mastercard.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

US recession data shows it’s a very short road to capital controls

US recession data shows it’s a very short road to capital controls

That’s a direct quote from John Williams, the President of the San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank in a speech he gave a few weeks ago.

He could have just as easily been talking about propaganda. The Fed, the White House, Wall Street, the media have a vested interest in peddling a certain narrative about the economy.

The narrative goes something like this: “Everything’s awesome. Stop asking questions”.

But if you look at their own data, the numbers tell a different story.

My team and I were recently studying US manufacturing indices, something that has traditionally been a strong indicator of recession.

This is data collected by the Federal Reserve; they survey manufacturing businesses and ask if factory orders are growing, shrinking, or relatively unchanged.

You’d think that based on this “everything is awesome” narrative that all the numbers would be growing.

And yet, much of the data show that manufacturing is shrinking. Or to be even more clear, that the US is in a manufacturing recession.

In Texas, for example, just 4% of businesses report that they are growing. 38% are shrinking.

The Philadelphia Fed’s Manufacturing Index has been in recession since September of last year.

The San Francisco Fed’s Total Factor Productivity is also reporting negative growth.

The New York Fed’s Empire State Manufacturing Index was at minus 16.6 for February. In fact, the last time the index was below -15 was in October 2008, ten months into the Great Recession.

The numbers are all pretty clear: there’s an obvious industrial and manufacturing downturn.

But that shouldn’t matter because Fox News, CNN, CNBC, and the White House tell us that consumer spending drives the US economy; industrial production is irrelevant.

 

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

German bank that almost failed now being paid to borrow money

German bank that almost failed now being paid to borrow money

The flight departs Sydney, Australia at 12:50pm and arrives to Santiago, Chile the same day at 11:20am. In other words, the plane lands 90 minutes before it departs.

When I landed yesterday, the captain came on the P.A. and said, “Ladies and Gentlemen, I have good news; if you enjoyed Wednesday March 9th, it’s still Wednesday March 9th!”

It really does feel like going back in time.

This feeling was only reinforced when I whipped out my phone and saw that German bank Berlin Hyp had just issued 500 million euros worth of debt… at negative interest.

I wondered if I really did go through a time warp, because this is exactly the same madness we saw ten years ago during the housing bubble and the subsequent financial crisis.

To explain the deal, Berlin Hyp issued bonds that yield negative 0.162% and pay no coupon.

This means that if you buy €1,000 worth of bonds, you will receive €998.38 when they mature in three years.

Granted this is a fairly small loss, but it is still a loss. And a guaranteed one.

This is supposed to be an investment… an investment, by-the-way, with a bank that almost went under in the last financial crisis.

It took a €500 billion bail-out by the German government to save its banking system.

Eight years later, people are buying this “investment” that guarantees that they will lose money.

The bank is now effectively being paid to borrow money.

We saw the consequences of this back in 2008.

During the housing bubble, banking lending standards got completely out of control to the point that they were paying people to borrow money.

At the height of the housing bubble, you could not only get a no-money down loan, but many banks would actually finance 105% of the home’s purchase price.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

It’s a revolution: German banks told to start hoarding cash

It’s a revolution: German banks told to start hoarding cash

German newspaper Der Spiegel reported yesterday that the Bavarian Banking Association has recommended that its member banks start stockpiling PHYSICAL CASH.

Europe, of course, has been battling with negative interest rates for quite some time.

What this means is that commercial banks are being charged interest for holding wholesale deposits at the European Central Bank.

In order to generate artificial economic growth, the ECB wants banks to make as many loans as possible, no matter how stupid or idiotic.

They believe that economic growth is simply a function of loans. The more money that’s loaned out, the more the economy will grow.

This is the sort of theory that works really well in an economic textbook. But it doesn’t work so well in a history textbook.

Cheap money encourages risky behavior. It gives banks an incentive to give ‘no money down’ loans to homeless people with no employment history.

It creates bubbles (like the housing bubble from 10 years ago), and ultimately, financial panics (like the banking crisis from 8 years ago).

Banks are supposed to be conservative, responsible managers of other people’s money.

When central bank policies penalize that practice, bad things tend to happen.

Traditionally when a commercial bank in Europe wants to play it safe with its customers’ funds, they would hold excess reserves on deposit with the European Central Bank.

In the past, they might even have been paid interest on those excess reserves as an extra incentive to be conservative.

Now it’s the exact opposite. If a bank holds excess reserves on deposit at the ECB to ensure that they have a greater margin of safety, they must now pay 0.3% to the ECB.

That’s what it means to have negative interest rates. And for the bank, this eats into their profits, especially when they have tens of billions in excess reserves.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

 

BREAKING: US government releases its 2015 financial statements

BREAKING: US government releases its 2015 financial statements

Hot off the presses, the US government just published its audited financial statements this morning, signed and sealed by Treasury Secretary Jack Lew.

These reports are intended provide an accurate accounting of government finances, just like any big corporation would do.

And once again, the US government’s financial condition has declined significantly from the previous year.

For 2015, the government reports $3.2 trillion in total assets.

This includes everything from financial assets like bank balances to physical assets like tanks, bullets, aircraft carriers, and the federal highway system.

Curiously, the single biggest line item amongst these listed assets is the $1.2 trillion in student loans that are owed to the government by the young people of America.

This is pretty extraordinary when you think about it.

37% of the government’s total reported assets are student loans, which is now considered one of the most precarious bubbles in finance.

$1.2 trillion is similar to the size of the subprime mortgage market back in 2008. And delinquency rates are rising, now at 11.5% according to Federal Reserve data.

Plus, it’s simply astonishing that so much of the federal government’s asset base is tantamount to indentured servitude as young people pay off expensive university degrees that barely land them jobs making coffee at Starbucks.

On the other side of the equation are a reported $21.5 trillion in liabilities, giving the government an official net worth of negative $18.2 trillion.

This is down from last year’s negative $17.7 trillion and $16.9 trillion the year prior. It just keeps getting worse.

But there’s one thing that’s even more incredible about all of this.

You see, each year these financial statements are audited by the government’s in-house agency known as the Government Accountability Office (GAO).

All big companies do this. They publish financial statements, which are then reviewed by an independent audit firm.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Trumping the Federal Debt Without Playing the Default Card

Trumping the Federal Debt Without Playing the Default Card

By Ellen Brown, Web of Debt.

“The United States can pay any debt it has because we can always print money to do that. So there is zero probability of default.”

— Former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan on Meet the Press, August 2011

In a post on “Sovereign Man” dated August 14thSimon Black argued that Donald Trump may be the right man for the presidency:

[T]here’s one thing that really sets him apart, that, in my opinion, makes him the most qualified person for the job:

Donald Trump is an expert at declaring bankruptcy.

When the going gets tough, Trump stiffs his creditors. He’s done it four times!

Candidly, this is precisely what the Land of the Free needs right now: someone who can stop beating around the bush and just get on with it already.

Black says the country is officially bankrupt, with the government’s financial statements showing a negative net worth of $17.7 trillion:

Nations that pass the economic point of no return can’t rebuild until they hit rock bottom. And the US is way past that point. So let’s get on with it already and hit the reset button.

Black recommends doing this by defaulting, preferably on Social Security and Medicare. But that is unlikely to suit this leading Republican candidate. As Trump said on Meet the Press on August 16:

I want people to be taken care of from a healthcare standpoint.… I want to save Social Security without cuts. I want … a strong country with very little debt.

How can the country remain strong with very little debt, without defaulting on Social Security, Medicare, or the federal debt itself?

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

 

 

Trumping the Federal Debt Without Playing the Default Card

Trumping the Federal Debt Without Playing the Default Card

“The United States can pay any debt it has because we can always print money to do that. So there is zero probability of default.”

— Former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan on Meet the Press, August 2011

In a post on “Sovereign Man” dated August 14thSimon Black arguedthat Donald Trump may be the right man for the presidency:

[T]here’s one thing that really sets him apart, that, in my opinion, makes him the most qualified person for the job:

Donald Trump is an expert at declaring bankruptcy.

When the going gets tough, Trump stiffs his creditors. He’s done it four times!

Candidly, this is precisely what the Land of the Free needs right now: someone who can stop beating around the bush and just get on with it already.

Black says the country is officially bankrupt, with the government’s financial statements showing a negative net worth of $17.7 trillion:

Nations that pass the economic point of no return can’t rebuild until they hit rock bottom. And the US is way past that point. So let’s get on with it already and hit the reset button.

Black recommends doing this by defaulting, preferably on Social Security and Medicare. But that is unlikely to sue to this leading Republican candidate. As Trump said on Meet the Press on August 16:

I want people to be taken care of from a healthcare standpoint.… I want to save Social Security without cuts. I want … a strong country with very little debt.

How can the country remain strong with very little debt, without defaulting on Social Security, Medicare, or the federal debt itself?

There is a way. The government can reduce the debt by buying it – and ripping it up. The debt can be bought either with debt-free US Notes of the sort issued during the Civil War, or with US dollars issued by the Federal Reserve in the form of “quantitative easing.”

 

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

China is trying to centrally plan its way out of a black hole

China is trying to centrally plan its way out of a black hole

It’s here in southwestern China’s postcard-perfect Yunnan province that the mighty Mekong River rises.

From its source in a nearby mountain range, the river proceeds south, cutting its way across Southeast Asia’s fertile lands through Burma, Laos, Thailand, Vietnam, and Cambodia.

The Mekong is hugely important; its waters irrigate million of acres of land and provide untold quantities of fish, both of which support tens of millions of people in the region.

So it’s a major concern that China appears to be unilaterally diverting the Mekong to support its own needs.

We’ve discussed China’s worrisome drought several times in the past.

It would not be the slightest overstatement to say that China’s water situation is rapidly approaching crisis levels.

Even China’s Agriculture Ministry is sounding the alarm bells.

The numbers they’re reporting show that China already has to import more water than the United States imports oil.

And this is creating major problems for their food security– for without staggering food imports, China cannot feed itself.

If you add up all the acres of farmland that it takes to grow the amount of food China must now import each year, the total area is larger than the entire state of California.

 

And this problem is only getting bigger.

Here in Yunnan, the scenic countryside stretches to the horizon with beautiful farms and vast walnut groves, benefiting from the province’s gentle climate.

Yunnan is actually one of the biggest walnut producing regions in China, which itself is the largest walnut producer in the world.

But this won’t last. It can’t. They simply don’t have enough water.

That’s actually the reason I’m here– walnuts.

 

 

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

 

Olduvai IV: Courage
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Olduvai II: Exodus
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