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Silver Prices Likely To Go “Exponential” – Guggenheim Co-Founder
Silver Prices Likely To Go “Exponential” – Guggenheim Co-Founder
◆ Silver prices are likely to go “exponential again” according to Guggenheim Partners co-founder Scott Minerd, in an interview with Bloomberg at Davos (see silver chart and interview below)
◆ Silver is “the number one conviction trade in 2020” Minerd, who is also the Guggenheim Global Chief Investment Officer (CIO) told Bloomberg whose conviction trade was greeted with surprise by Bloomberg’s Tom Keene and Jonathan Ferro
◆ Silver has more room to run and there is a “strong probability” that silver will go “exponential” again according to Minerd
◆ “When you look at the relative values of silver and gold, silver is about 65% below its prior peak while gold is very close to its prior peak”
◆ Financial markets and assets are a central bank fueled ‘ponzi scheme’ warned Minerd who is concerned about the huge rally seen in bond and particularly stock markets
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
THE GLOBAL DEBT TICKING TIME-BOMB: The Reason To Own Gold & Silver
THE GLOBAL DEBT TICKING TIME-BOMB: The Reason To Own Gold & Silver
As Global Debt reached a new record high of $250 trillion this year, gold and silver came briefly back on the radar for investors. After five long years, the precious metals finally broke through key technical levels this summer. However, after the Fed started the Repo Operations in September and the $60 billion a month of “Not-QE” in October, the focus returned once again to the Bloated Stock and Bond markets.
What a drastic change from the Fed’s policy last year when it was reducing the size of its balance sheet until the stock market crashed in December 2018. Since then, the huge stock market reversal and all the additional gains have been Fed liquidity induced. Sven Heinrich continues to write and talk about this on his website, the Northmantrader.com. Here is a recent chart from his article, System Failure:
At the bottom left hand of the chart corresponds to the bottom of the stock market in January 2019 when Fed Chairman Powell caved in by ending the reduction of the Fed’s balance sheet. Since then, there have been three rate cuts, Repo Magic and $60 billion a month of U.S. Treasury purchases because there aren’t enough suckers to absorb all the new U.S. Govt issued debt.
The U.S. economy isn’t even in a recession, and the Fed is acting as if it was 2008-2009 all over again. What happens when the U.S. economy finally rolls over?? It’s going to be terrible news, especially considering the record amount of global debt. According to the IIF, the Institute of International Finance, global debt reached a record high of $250 trillion in the first half of the year. However, the IIF estimates that global debt will reach $255 trillion by yearend.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
GOLD & SILVER PRICE UPDATE: And What Most Precious Metals Analysts Are Missing
GOLD & SILVER PRICE UPDATE: And What Most Precious Metals Analysts Are Missing
The gold and silver prices continue to consolidate since reaching new five-year highs in the summer. Gold is nearly $100 lower from its high of $1,566 on September 4th, while silver is down more than $3 from its $19.75 peak on the very same day. Thus, gold is down 6% while silver is off by more than 15% from the peak summer prices.
However, some precious metals analysts continue to harp on the “Price Hammering” or “Manipulated” knock-down of the metals when they didn’t complain when both gold and silver increased 23% and 38% respectively from their lows in just three months. I bring this up again because the time spent fixated on the “supposed” precious metals manipulation will only amount to increased “FRUSTRATION.” Rather, I believe it’s better to focus on understanding the underlying “ROOT” fundamentals of the market and the impact on the future value of gold and silver.
For example, I no longer spend much time at all, looking at the Political Circus in Washington, DC. It’s a complete waste of time. Americans are either brainwashed by propaganda from the LEFT or the RIGHT into believing their “SCHMUCK” leader is better than the other. So, trying to debate Americans who are proud proponents of the LEFT or RIGHT is similar to wasting time on precious metals manipulation.
With all the articles claiming Gold and Silver Manipulation, why hasn’t anyone brought up the fact that gold and silver are now trading above their total primary cost of production (+$200 for gold & +$1-2 for silver)?? It would be one thing if gold were trading at $750 and silver at $10. Then, the “Manipulation” mantra would carry more weight and make sense. However, these two precious metals are still trading above their average cost of production, even after consolidating lower over the past three months.
GOLD & SILVER UPDATE: Setting Up For The Next Leg Higher In 2020
GOLD & SILVER UPDATE: Setting Up For The Next Leg Higher In 2020
The Day of Reckoning is coming, and it won’t be pretty for the overall markets. While the Fed liquidity has pushed the major U.S. indexes to new highs, the underlying fundamentals in the economy continue to deteriorate. Without the record amount of Fed QE and Repo Operations, the market and economy would have gone into a tailspin in 2019.
Now, to give credit where credit is due, the term, “The Day of Reckoning” was the title from the Northman Trader’s most recent public article. What I like about Sven Heinrich’s work (the Northman Trader), is his ability to use technical and fundamental analysis to provide “PRICE DISCOVERY” in the markets.
Unfortunately, we don’t have price discovery anymore due to the Fed and Central bank decade-long propping up of the markets. This chart from the Northman Trader shows how the Fed’s interventions have come in to support the markets at key technical levels:
What is quite interesting more recently (2019) is the substantial Fed’s rate cuts, QE, and Repo Operations at a time when there isn’t a downturn in the U.S. economy. When the Fed started QE1 in 2009, the stock market had crashed to a low, and the economy was in a severe recession. The Fed continued to support the economy and markets with QE2, TWIST, and QE3 into 2013. Again, these Fed interventions took place during a struggling economy.
Today, the Fed is pulling out all the FIREPOWER when the markets are at new highs, and the economy is still rolling along nicely. This is a recipe for DISASTER at some point. Furthermore, the energy market that is one of the driving forces of the U.S. economy is in serious trouble.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Greed Driving Broader Markets Today, Fear To Spark Precious Metals Fireworks In The Future
Greed Driving Broader Markets Today, Fear To Spark Precious Metals Fireworks In The Future
With the Fed propping up the entire market and extreme greed driving the stock indexes to new highs, investors have lost interest in the precious metals, for the moment. However, I am not surprised. What is taking place in the overall markets is precisely what I forecasted back in September.
After gold and silver broke out of key resistance levels in the summer and then moved to new highs for 2019, a consolidation period would likely follow before the precious metals began the next leg up. I mentioned this in my last Youtube precious metals update, Silver Price Update & End Of Mining Era, published on September 21st.
In that video update, I posted this daily chart on silver:
I stated that silver would probably correct back down to these price levels before setting up for the next phase higher. Today, silver fell to a low of $16.71 in the U.S. markets ($16.58 in overnight markets), so it seems to be heading down to the $16.20 level. Here was the silver price on stockcharts as of Thursday, November 7th.
I believe silver will fall back to that $16.20 level, according to how traders are now anticipating the market. Again, I am not saying that silver should go down to $16.20, especially with all the Fed money printing and Repo-madness, but this is how traders are viewing the silver market. Why? Because the Fed is now buying $60 billion a month in Treasuries, the same as the U.S. Military monthly spending budget, it has given the market another FALSE BUYING SIGNAL. Thus, GREED in the market has gone back up to a record “Extreme Level.”
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Start thinking about silver before it becomes popular again
Start thinking about silver before it becomes popular again
In 663 BC, King Ashurbanipal of the Assyrian Empire invaded Egypt and sacked the city of Waset (located in modern day Luxor on the Nile River).
Ashurbanipal vanquished the city, purportedly seizing more than 75 metric tons of silver for his personal collection.
At the time in the ancient world, the prevailing ratio between gold and silver was 1:2. In other words, 75 metric tons (= 75,000 kilograms) of silver was worth 37,500 kilograms of gold, equal to $1.76 billion in today’s money.
That 1:2 gold/silver ratio had held for thousands of years across Persia, Mesopotamia, and Ancient Egypt, possibly since as early as 3,000 BC.
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But over time it has changed periodically.
By the time of Alexander the Great in the 300s BC, the Gold/Silver ratio had shifted to 1:13. Mining techniques had advanced at that point, so the ancients were able to produce higher volumes of silver than ever before.
Under Julius Caesar in Ancient Rome, one ounce of gold was worth 12 ounces of silver. In the time of Mohammed and the early days of the Islamic Caliphate in the 600s, the ratio was 1:16.
Even in the early history of the United States, the Mint and Coinage Act of 1792 established a gold/silver ratio 1:15.
(According to the law, one US dollar is defined as 1.604 grams of pure gold, or 24.1 grams of pure silver. So those pieces of paper in your wallet are not technically US dollars, but ‘Federal Reserve Notes’.)
In our modern times, the ratio average is around 55 ounces of silver per ounce of gold.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
SILVER PRICE UPDATE: Including End Of A Silver Mining Era
SILVER PRICE UPDATE: Including End Of A Silver Mining Era
Since my last video update, the silver price has consolidated to a lower level. While I wasn’t surprised to see silver continue to correct, I do believe its only temporary before it begins a new leg higher. And, if we look at the COT Report for silver, there are some positive signs going forward.
But, before I provide a preview on my newest video update, Silver Price Update & End Of A Silver Mining Era, I wanted to clarify my position on “technical analysis.” There seems to be a large group of precious metals investors that have a negative KNEE-JERK reaction when I post some charts on technical analysis, stated several reasons why it’s a waste of time to do it when the market is rigged or controlled by the bullion banks (JP Morgan), the Fed and central banks.
While new and long-term followers are free to post any comments they desire about the pros or cons of technical analysis, my reason for doing so is to show what TRADERS ARE LOOKING AT and what they expect going forward. Traders, hedge funds and large institutions all study and follow technical analysis. Right now, they are the leading drivers of the silver price.
However, technical analysis patterns will not provide the ultimate FUNDAMENTAL VALUE for silver when the Fed and Central Banks lose control of the Fiat Monetary system and economy. Yes… at that point, technical analysis won’t matter. BUT, we aren’t there yet.
So, instead of precious metals investors becoming frustrated because they believe the silver price should only go IN ONE DIRECTION… UP, I am just showing how silver trades in the current system. Thus, if it falls back down to a certain key technical level before moving higher, you CAN TAKE IT OR LEAVE IT.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
The Silver Series: The Start of A New Gold-Silver Cycle (Part 1 of 3)
The Silver Series: The Start of A New Gold-Silver Cycle (Part 1 of 3)
The world has experienced a decade of growth fueled by record-low interest rates, a burgeoning money supply, and historic debt levels – but the good times only last so long.
As the global economy slows and eventually begins to retract, can precious metals offer a useful store of value to investors?
Part 1: The Start of a New Cycle
Today’s infographic comes to us from Endeavour Silver, and it outlines some key indicators that precede a coming gold-silver cycle in which exposure to hard assets may help to protect wealth.
Bankers Blowing Bubbles
Since 2008, central bankers around the world launched a historic market intervention by printing money and bailing out major banks. With cheap and abundant money, this strategy worked so well that it created a bull market in every sector — except for precious metals.
Stock markets, consumer lending, and property values surged. Meanwhile, the U.S. Federal Reserve’s assets ballooned, and so did corporate, government, and household debt. By 2018, total debt reached almost $250 trillion worldwide.
Currency vs. Precious Metals
The world awash in unprecedented amounts of currency, and these dollars chase a limited supply of goods. Historically speaking, it’s only a matter of time before the price of goods increases or inflates – eroding the purchasing power of every dollar.
Gold and silver are some of the only assets unaffected by inflation, retaining their value.
Gold and silver are money… everything else is credit.
– J.P. Morgan
The Perfect Story for a Gold-Silver Cycle?
Investors can use several indicators to gauge the beginning of the gold-silver cycle:
- Gold/Silver Futures
Most traders do not trade physical gold and silver, but paper contracts with the promise to buy at a future price. Every week, U.S. commodity exchanges publish the Commitment of Traders “COT” report. This report summarizes the positions (long/short) of traders for a particular commodity.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Why Silver Is Better Than Gold
Why Silver Is Better Than Gold
While the surging gold price has received most of the spotlight in the market, silver will outperform the king monetary metal over the longer term. Key fundamental factors make silver the more attractive asset and investment to own versus gold when we look closely at the data. However, that doesn’t mean precious metals investors shouldn’t own gold. Investors need to own both precious metals, but I believe silver will provide better returns than gold in the future.
Now, there is this notion put forth by many precious metals analysts that central banks will be forced, at some point, to back their currencies by gold. Thus, the idea is that gold will reset at a much higher price. While that is a possibility, backing debt-based currencies with gold will not solve our coming energy crisis. And, let me tell you, it’s an energy predicament that we have no real solution.
You see, it doesn’t really matter if we back fiat money with gold. The REAL ISSUE has always been ENERGY. The massive increase in debt and derivatives are a symptom of the Falling EROI (Energy Returned On Investment) of oil. Basically, while gold may solve certain issues in regards to “Confidence” in money, it doesn’t fix our energy problems.
I touched on this briefly in my newest video, Why Silver Is Better Than Gold. However, most of the video explains new charts that show fundamental factors on why silver is a better investment than gold as well as some key price levels for the short term.
One of the more important charts in the video shows the amount of “Identifiable” physical gold and silver investment stocks. Interestingly, according to the data from the World Gold Council and the World Silver Surveys, there is just about the same amount of physical gold investment as there is silver.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Currency Wars Have Entered the Next Phase, Gold and Silver Will Move Higher
Currency Wars Have Entered the Next Phase, Gold and Silver Will Move Higher
Gold is trading solidly above the $1500 mark at the time of writing, and I believe we are only just getting started. The currency wars are back in full swing, and they will be more intense than ever.
The United States government, ironically, labeled China a currency manipulator for the first time since 1994, marking a severe uptick in their rhetoric against the Chinese government, as the trade wars continue to spiral out of control with seemingly no end in sight.
Many simply waved this move off as nothing more than what it initially appeared to be: jawboning with no true ramifications behind it. However, others see it as a blatant threat by the U.S. administration against China, as the last time this language was used twenty-five years ago was when China was placed on a currency blacklist.
Some were surprised by this move, as they see it as an overreaction, fearing that we have now moved into another phase of the ongoing currency wars that have bubbled behind the scenes for years—currency wars that are now in plain sight for all to see.
Unfortunately, this should come as no surprise to anyone, as President Trump stated back in 2016 that he fully intended to label China a “currency manipulator”, a statement that was laughed off until now.
This move comes on the heels of a Fed interest rate cut in which the Fed Chief, Jerome Powell, lowered rates by 0.25%, citing fears of a weakening global economy and ongoing trade wars.
Of course, China is far from the only currency manipulator in the world, as countries are constantly “racing to the bottom” in an attempt to lower the value of their currencies. This increases their competitiveness on the international markets by artificially making the prices of their goods lower.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Somebody’ Finally Cares About Gold
Somebody’ Finally Cares About Gold
Grant Williams pithily summed up the situation that has been plaguing gold since 2013: Nobody Cares.
Yes, it’s highly likely that the price has been suppressed. But not enough buyers cared to fight the bullion bank/central bank cartel or make life difficult enough for the politicians — and thus, the regulators — to change things.
So gold languished. For years.
But last August, gold quietly entered a bull market after breaking above $1200.
As the price began rising (for both fundamental & technical reasons), we’ve been tracking its progress closely. We do so on a daily basis via Peak Prosperity’s Precious Metals Daily Commentary updates (outstandingly authored by user davefairtex), as key developments happened via our premium reports (like this prediction), and via expert interviews such as our recent in-depth discussions with TFMetals and Incrementum’s Ronni Stoeferle.
As we entered 2019, the increasingly dovish/desperate policy retracements of the central banks — which now appear will NEVER normalize their balance sheets — have boosted the bull run.
Lower real interest rates are gold price-positive. And not only are real rates falling right now, there’s alreadycurrently $12 trillion in negative *nominal* debt trading worldwide right now:
And based on this week’s further dovish announcements from both the Fed and the ECB, we can expect more $trillions to be added to that pile soon.
On Tuesday, Mario Draghi apparently went rogue on his fellow policymakers and launched into a swan song version of his all-time hit “Whatever it takes”. The next day, Jerome Powell at the Fed confirmed his willingness to ease and let the market know he stands ready to cut rates multiple times over the next year.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
MORE TROUBLE IN MEXICO: Second Largest Silver Mine Suspended Operations
MORE TROUBLE IN MEXICO: Second Largest Silver Mine Suspended Operations
In just a little more than a week after the mighty Newmont-Goldcorp merger was finalized, the company suspended operations of its largest gold-silver mine in Mexico. The Penasquito Mine, which produced more than a 500,000 ounces of gold and 25 million ounces of silver in a single year, has been dealing with a blockade of its operations since March 27th.
The blockade was started due to issues with the local community in regards to water supply concerns and problems with a trucking contractor. However, the protests by the local community over water rights have been going on ever since the Penasquito Mine started operations in 2010.
According to the article, Goldcorp using excessive water at Peñasquito mine – critics, research by McGill Research Group, reported that the Penasquito Mine was using three times the amount of water than it originally agreed upon. Furthermore, the large open-pit gold-silver mine, located in the state of Zacatecas, was also consuming three times the amount of water supplied to the entire City of Zacatecas (population 129,000).
To get an idea the amount of water being consumed by the Penasquito Mine, I looked at the data from Goldcorp’s most recent Sustainability Report. In 2017, the Penasquito Mine withdrew a staggering 7.9 billion gallons of water to supply its operations for the year. Of that total amount, 93% came from groundwater. That is one hell of a lot of water.
It will be interesting to see how long it takes for the suspension to end. However, with the election of the new President AMLO of Mexico, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, large foreign mining companies in Mexico may find it increasingly challenging to GET THEIR WAY as they have in the past with the help of pro-mining leaders.
Regardless, the Penasquito Mine produced the second highest amount of silver in Mexico last year:
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
