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The unleashing of Russian firepower in Syria in support of the Syrian government came precisely on the day of the Economic Confidence Model. I have come to learn from observing this model that major world events, whatever the major focus may be, appear to line up with the ECM.

This target has been huge for us given that we have TWO WAR CYCLE MODELS: (1) civil unrest that leads to revolution, and (2) international war. It is sort of like the Blood Moon stuff insofar as it does not line up so easily. The main convergence of the War Cycle between both models began to turn in 2014. The economic war against Russia imposing sanctions began on March 6, 2014 (2014.178) when Obama signed Executive Order 13660 that authorizes sanctions on individuals and entities responsible for violating the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine. The next day, this order was followed by Executive Order 13661, which claimed that Russia had undermined the democratic processes. On March 20, 2014, Obama issued a new Executive Order: “Blocking Property of Additional Persons Contributing to the Situation in Ukraine”. This order expanded the scope of the two previous orders to the Government of the Russian Federation; it included its annexation of Crimea and its use of force in Ukraine, which the U.S. claimed was a threat to the national security and foreign policy of the United States. Then on April 28, Obama imposed more sanctions on Russia.

The third round of U.S. sanctions on Russia began from October into December 2014 over the turning point. On October 3, 2014, Joe Biden said, “It was America’s leadership and the president of the United States insisting, oft times almost having to embarrass Europe to stand up and take economic hits to impose costs.” The EU imposed sanctions on December 18, 2014, which banned some investments in Crimea and halted support for the Russian Federation Black Sea exploration of oil and gas.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The UN: Pretending to Oppose War for 70 Years

September 29, 2015

The UN: Pretending to Oppose War for 70 Years

The United Nation’s 17 Sustainable Development Goals don’t just ignore the fact that development isn’t sustainable; they revel in it. One of the goals is spreading energy use. Another is economic growth. Another is preparation for climate chaos (not preventing it, but dealing with it). And how does the United Nations deal with problems? Generally through wars and sanctions.

This institution was set up 70 years ago to keep nations, rather than a global body, in charge, and to keep the victors of World War II in a permanent position of dominating the rest of the globe. The UN legalized “defensive” wars and any wars it “authorizes” for whatever reason. It now says drones have made war “the norm,” but addressing that problem is not among the 17 goals now being considered. Ending war is not among the goals. Disarmament isn’t mentioned. The Arms Trade Treaty put through last year still lacks the United States, China, and Russia, but that’s not among the 17 concerns of “sustainable development.”

Saudi Arabia’s “responsibility to protect” Yemen by murdering its people with U.S. weapons isn’t at issue. Saudi Arabia is busy crucifying children and heading up the UN’s Human Rights Council. Meanwhile U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and the Foreign Minister of Turkey have declared that they will start addressing the full “lifecycle” of young people who become “terrorists.” Of course, they’ll do so without mentioning the U.S.-led wars that have traumatized the region or the by now long established record of the global war on terrorism producing terrorism.

I’m happy to have signed this letter, which you, too, can sign below:

To: U.N. Secretary General Ban-Ki Moon

The U.N. Charter was ratified on October 24, 1945. Its potential is still unfulfilled. It has been used to advance and misused to impede the cause of peace. We urge a rededication to its original goal of saving succeeding generations from the scourge of war.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

‘Sanction Spiral’: Russian Natural Gas Exports to Europe Soar

September 26, 2015

‘Sanction Spiral’: Russian Natural Gas Exports to Europe Soar

The infamous “sanction spiral” imposed on Russia by the US and Europe with such fanfare last year in the wake of the Ukrainian fiasco has receded from Western headlines. In Russia, it coagulated with the oil price plunge, and during the first two quarters this year, the economy shrank sharply.

But whatever the “sanction spiral” was supposed to accomplish, some countries in Europe, among them Germany, are desperately dependent on Russian gas to heat homes and offices, and to supply power plants and industrial installation. The threat that Russia would turn off the valve hung over the EU last winter. At the time, Eurocrats beat the bushes to explain that no one would be without natural gas. But not everyone believed it, including the German government [LEAKED: What Happens to Germany if Russia Turns off the Gas].

The scare seems to have left a lasting impression.

Or was it just about money?

Over the winter, Russian natural gas exports by pipeline to Europe dropped to the lowest levels in years, and were 22% below the five-year average, according to US EIAcalculations of International Energy Agency data. Exports dropped even further to 6.4 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in January and 5.3 Bcf/d in February, down 36% and 40% respectively from the five-year average for these months.

But in March, natural gas exports from Russia to Europe began to increase. And by the second quarter, they jumped 58% over the first quarter. In July, the most recent month for which data is available, exports hit 11.9 Bcf/d. Exports via the Ukraine decreased, but exports via the Nord Stream pipeline into Germany soared 55% year-over-year in June and 59% in July to a new record. To heck with any half-forgotten sanctions (2015 exports, brown line):

Then there’s the money.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Oil Re-Bloodies the “Smart Money”

August 4, 2015

Oil Re-Bloodies the “Smart Money”

The “liquidity death spiral.”

Oil plunged again on Monday, with West Texas Intermediate down over 4%. At $45.17 a barrel, it’s just a hair away from this year’s oil-bust low. During 8 weeks in a row of relentless declines, WTI had plunged 26%. July’s 21% drop was the largest monthly decline since the Financial Crisis collapse in 2008.

There’s a laundry list of perceived reasons: The rig count has been rising again. Shale oil companies, like Whiting Petroleum, are bragging about “record” production to prop up their shares. Production in Russia has been strong. And OPEC, powered by Saudi Arabia and increasingly Iraq, raised production in July to 32 million barrels per day.

There’s the dreaded surge of Iranian oil onto the world markets. Just this weekend, Iran’s oil minister mused that his country could raise oil production by 500,000 bpdwithin a week of when the sanctions would be lifted and by 1 million bpd within a month.

It gave oil markets the willies. They were already fretting over the slowdown in China, the crude oil inventories in the US, at a record for this time of the year, the oil inventories in other developed markets, and even oil stored in leased tankers. Oil everywhere, it seems.

Whatever the perceived reasons, the price of oil has gotten re-crushed, and so has the hope a few months ago that this would be over by now.

Moody’s is ringing alarm bells over a wave of defaults among US oil and gas companies: “The energy price slide continues to create operating and liquidity pressures for the oil and gas sector, which contributed to seven of the 15 defaults recorded and accounts for a large share of companies with low ratings and weak liquidity.” And it expected the energy sector “to be a primary driver of defaults over the next year.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Framing Iran: Thomas Friedman’s War Wish

July 10, 2015

Framing Iran: Thomas Friedman’s War Wish

Thomas Friedman, the New York Times op-ed-page representative of the foreign-policy elite, is unhappy with how the soon-to-be-completed Iran nuclear talks are going. He says President Obama, like his predecessor George W. Bush, hasn’t been tough enough. Obama holds all the cards, Friedman says, but somehow the Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is dictating terms. He writes:

It is stunning to me how well the Iranians, sitting alone on their side of the table, have played a weak hand against the United States, Russia, China, France, Germany and Britain on their side of the table…..

For the past year every time there is a sticking point … it keeps feeling as if it’s always our side looking to accommodate Iran’s needs. I wish we had walked out just once. When you signal to the guy on the other side of the table that you’re not willing to either blow him up or blow him off — to get up and walk away — you reduce yourself to just an equal and get the best bad deal nonviolence can buy. [Emphasis added.]

Friedman glosses over the fact that it is not “him” (foreign minister Javad Zarif perhaps?) who would be blown up in a war against Iran. It would be countless ordinary Iranians, who have done nothing to harm the American people. Those same innocent people would be harmed, admittedly in more subtle ways, if the P5+1 “blew off” Iranian negotiators because that would mean no relief from long-standing U.S.-led sanctions that have devastated the Iranian economy, creating food and medicine shortages among other inhumane consequences. Sanctions are acts of war. Would someone tell Friedman?

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Choice Before Europe

May 6, 2015

The Choice Before Europe

Washington continues to drive Europe toward one or the other of the two most likely outcomes of the orchestrated conflict with Russia. Either Europe or some European Union member government will break from Washington over the issue of Russian sanctions, thereby forcing the EU off of the path of conflict with Russia, or Europe will be pushed into military conflict with Russia.

In June the Russian sanctions expire unless each member government of the EU votes to continue the sanctions. Several governments have spoken against a continuation. For example, the governments of the Czech Republic and Greece have expressed dissatisfaction with the sanctions.

US Secretary of State John Kerry acknowledged growing opposition to the sanctions among some European governments. Employing the three tools of US foreign policy–threats, bribery, and coercion–he warned Europe to renew the sanctions or there would be retribution. We will see in June if Washington’s threat has quelled the rebellion.

Europe has to consider the strength of Washington’s threat of retribution against the cost of a continuing and worsening conflict with Russia. This conflict is not in Europe’s economic or political interest, and the conflict has the risk of breaking out into war that would destroy Europe.

Since the end of World War II Europeans have been accustomed to following Washington’s lead. For awhile France went her own way, and there were some political parties in Germany and Italy that considered Washington to be as much of a threat to European independence as the Soviet Union. Over time, using money and false flag operations, such as Operation Gladio, Washington marginalized politicians and political parties that did not follow Washington’s lead.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

MAYBE OBAMA’S SANCTIONS ON VENEZUELA ARE NOT REALLY ABOUT HIS “DEEP CONCERN” OVER SUPPRESSION OF POLITICAL RIGHTS

March 13, 2015

MAYBE OBAMA’S SANCTIONS ON VENEZUELA ARE NOT REALLY ABOUT HIS “DEEP CONCERN” OVER SUPPRESSION OF POLITICAL RIGHTS

The White House on Monday announced the imposition of new sanctions on various Venezuelan officials, pronouncing itself “deeply concerned by the Venezuelan government’s efforts to escalate intimidation of its political opponents”: deeply concerned. President Obama also, reportedly with a straight face, officially declared that Venezuela poses “an extraordinary threat to the national security” of the U.S. — a declaration necessary to legally justify the sanctions.

Today, one of the Obama administration’s closest allies on the planet, Saudi Arabia, sentenced one of that country’s few independent human rights activists, Mohammed al-Bajad, to 10 years in prison on “terrorism” charges. That is completely consistent with that regime’s systematic and extreme repression, which includes gruesome state beheadings at a record-setting rate, floggings and long prison terms for anti-regime bloggers,executions of those with minority religious views, and exploitation of terror laws to imprison even the mildest regime critics.

Absolutely nobody expects the “deeply concerned” President Obama to impose sanctions on the Saudis — nor on any of the other loyal U.S. allies from Egypt to the UAE whose repression is far worse than Venezuela’s. Perhaps those who actually believe U.S. proclamations about imposing sanctions on Venezuela in objection to suppression of political opposition might spend some time thinking about what accounts for that disparity.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The REAL Reasons We’re At War With Russia

March 10, 2015

The REAL Reasons We’re At War With Russia

The Empire Doesn’t Like to Be Questioned

We’re at war with Russia.

Specifically, we’ve launched:

A sanctions war

A currency war

A hot war in Ukraine

Indeed, it appears that U.S. leaders have targeted Putin for regime change.

Why?

Syria

Initially, the U.S. targeted Syria for regime change – for the second time – many decades ago.

Putin derailed the imminent American war against Syria by brokering a deal wherein Syria destroyed all of its chemical weapons. The U.S. was very unhappy with the deal … and tried to backtrack.

George Friedman – CEO and founder and CEO of Stratfor, the “private CIA” – said in December that the United States is behind the coup in Kiev … which he called the “most blatant coup in history”. Friedman said that the coup came in response to Russia’s peacemaking in Syria:

[Friedman:] Russia had begun to take certain steps that the United States considered unacceptable. Primarily in Syria. It was there that Russians demonstrated to the Americans that they are capable of influencing processes in the Middle East. And the US has enough problems in that part of the world already without the Russians.

Russians intervened in the process in the Middle East among other reasons because they had hoped to get leverage to influence US policy in other areas. But they miscalculated. The United States thought that it was Russia’s intent to harm them.

***

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Peculiarities of Russian National Character

January 14, 2015

Peculiarities of Russian National Character

Recent events, such as the overthrow of the government in Ukraine, the secession of Crimea and its decision to join the Russian Federation, the subsequent military campaign against civilians in Eastern Ukraine, western sanctions against Russia, and, most recently, the attack on the ruble, have caused a certain phase transition to occur within Russian society, which, I believe, is very poorly, if at all, understood in the west. This lack of understanding puts Europe at a significant disadvantage in being able to negotiate an end to this crisis.

Whereas prior to these events the Russians were rather content to consider themselves “just another European country,” they have now remembered that they are a distinct civilization, with different civilizational roots (Byzantium rather than Rome)—one that has been subject to concerted western efforts to destroy it once or twice a century, be it by Sweden, Poland, France, Germany, or some combination of the above. This has conditioned the Russian character in a specific set of ways which, if not adequately understood, is likely to lead to disaster for Europe and the world.

Lest you think that Byzantium is some minor cultural influence on Russia, it is, in fact, rather key. Byzantine cultural influences, which came along with Orthodox Christianity, first through Crimea (the birthplace of Christianity in Russia), then through the Russian capital Kiev (the same Kiev that is now the capital of Ukraine), allowed Russia to leapfrog across a millennium or so of cultural development. Such influences include the opaque and ponderously bureaucratic nature of Russian governance, which the westerners, who love transparency (if only in others) find so unnerving, along with many other things. Russians sometimes like to call Moscow the Third Rome—third after Rome itself and Constantinople—and this is not an entirely empty claim. But this is not to say that Russian civilization is derivative; yes, it has managed to absorb the entire classical heritage, viewed through a distinctly eastern lens, but its vast northern environment has transformed that heritage into something radically different.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Russia Cut to One Step Above Junk by Fitch on Oil, Sanctions

January 11, 2015

Russia Cut to One Step Above Junk by Fitch on Oil, Sanctions

Russia’s credit rating was cut to the lowest investment grade by Fitch Ratings after plummeting oil prices and the conflict over Ukraine triggered the worst currency crisis since the country’s 1998 default.

Fitch, which last downgraded Russia in 2009, cut the sovereign one step to BBB-, according to a statement issued Friday in New York. The grade, on par with India and Turkey, has a negative outlook.

“The economic outlook has deteriorated significantly since mid-2014 following sharp falls in the oil price and the ruble, coupled with a steep rise in interest rates,” Fitch said in the statement. “Plunging oil prices have exposed the close link between growth and oil.”

The world’s biggest energy exporter is on the brink of a recession after crude fell more than 50 percent since June and the U.S. and its allies imposed sanctions following President Vladimir Putin’s annexation of Crimea from Ukraine in March. The penalties have locked Russian corporate borrowers out of international debt markets and curbed investor appetite for the ruble, stocks and bonds.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Russia sanctions ‘must be lifted now’ – Hollande

January 5, 2015

Russia sanctions ‘must be lifted now’ – Hollande

French President Francois Hollande is wary of the impact economic crisis in Russia might have on Europe. He has called for sanctions imposed against Moscow to be lifted as soon as there’s progress in peace talks over Ukraine.

“If Russia has a crisis, it is not necessarily good for Europe,” Hollande said during a two-hour interview with radio station France Inter. “I’m not for the policy of attaining goals by making things worse, I think that sanctions must stop now.”

Hollande said he wanted to make sure there’s progress in peace talks over the situation in Ukraine, before putting an end to sanctions.

He said he hopes to see signs of mutual understanding at the January 15 talks in Astana, Kazakhstan. The meeting is being organized by Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko, and Russian President Vladimir Putin and German Chancellor Angela Merkel are expected to be among the participants.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Obama Sanctions North Korea For Sony Hack Which Was Perpetrated By Disgruntled Former Employee | Zero Hedge

January 2, 2015

Obama Sanctions North Korea For Sony Hack Which Was Perpetrated By Disgruntled Former Employee | Zero Hedge.

US foreign policy just jumped the shark: a few days after both the FBI and the US State department were humiliated when it was revealed that it wasn’t North Korea but a disgruntled, laid off Sony employee that was responsible for the “hack”, and when the best possible course of action would have been to simply let this latest embarrassing incident fade from memory, moments ago Obama – currently not working out next to a rainbow or flashing his support of “Shaka” – just signed his first executive order of 2015, imposing even more sanctions against North Korea.

From Bloomberg:

President Obama signs order imposing additional sanctions on North Korea in response to country’s “efforts to undermine U.S. cyber-security and intimidate U.S. businesses and artists exercising their right of freedom of speech,” according to Treasury Dept statement.

Sanctions target 3 entities, 10 individuals

Including North Korea’s intelligence agency, arms dealer, North Korea’s representatives in Namibia, Sudan, Iran, Syria, China

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Obama authorizes ‘economic embargo’ on Russia’s Crimea — RT USA

December 20, 2014

Obama authorizes ‘economic embargo’ on Russia’s Crimea — RT USA.

US President Barack Obama has authorized sanctions against individuals and entities operating in Russia’s Crimean peninsula, according to the White House statement.

Obama has issued an executive order that “prohibits the export of goods, technology, or services to Crimea and prohibits the import of goods, technology, or services from Crimea, as well as new investments in Crimea,” according to the statement.

The executive order also authorizes the Secretary of the Treasury to impose sanctions on “individuals and entities operating in Crimea.”

The move comes just a day after the European Union introduced similar action against the Russian region of Crimea and Sevastopol, accepted into the Russian Federation following the referendum last March.

The United States did not recognize the reunification and has been calling on Russia to “end its occupation and attempted annexation of Crimea.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

U.S. to discuss possible new Russia sanctions with European allies | Reuters

December 2, 2014

U.S. to discuss possible new Russia sanctions with European allies | Reuters.

(Reuters) – U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry will talk to European allies this week about imposing further sanctions onRussia if pro-Moscow separatists in eastern Ukraine do not halt violence, a senior State Department official said on Tuesday.

The United States and the 28-nation European Union have both imposed sanctions on Russia’s financial, defense and energy sectors over Moscow’s annexation of Crimea and its support for the separatists in eastern Ukraine.

But EU diplomats say there is little appetite within the bloc for more sanctions unless there is a further sharp deterioration of the situation in Ukraine. Russia is Europe’s leading energy supplier and many EU countries fear the sanctions and Russian reprisals could hurt their own economies.

“There are continuing conversations with the EU about continuing to expand sanctions,” said a senior U.S. State Department official accompanying Kerry to a meeting of NATO foreign ministers in Brussels on Tuesday.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Russia Can Survive An Oil Price War

November 21, 2014

Russia Can Survive An Oil Price War.

After a frosty reception at the G20 summit in Australia this week, Russian President Vladimir Putin required some much needed rest, at least according to the official explanation given for his conspicuously early departure from the proceedings. All things considered it could have been a lot worse. Russia finds itself in familiar territory after a controversial half-year, highlighted by the bloody and still unresolved situation in Ukraine. Nonetheless, the prospect of further sanctions looms low and Russia’s stores of oil and gas remain high.

Shortsighted? Maybe, but Russia has proven before – the 2008 financial crisis for example– that it can ride its resource rents through a prolonged economic slump. Higher oil price volatility and sanctions separate the current downturn from that of 2008, but Russia’s economic fundamentals remain the same – bolstered by low government debt and a large amount of foreign reserves. Moreover, Western involvement in Russian oil and gas plays is more pronounced than ever.

Economic diversification has not come easy for Russia, arguably for a simple, but effective reason; oil and gas are a source of tremendous wealth for the country. However, the dire straits of the 2008 global crisis illustrated the importance of financial diversification. Since then, Russian state-owned oil and gas giants Rosneft and Gazprom have increasingly allowed Western majors like BP, Eni, Exxon, Shell, Statoil, and Total access to some of Russia’s underdeveloped, but prized projects. Western companies have anestimated $35 billion tied up in Russian oil with hundreds of billions more planned and service providers Halliburton and Schlumberger each derive approximately five percent of their global sales from the Russian market.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

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