‘Sanction Spiral’: Russian Natural Gas Exports to Europe Soar
The infamous “sanction spiral” imposed on Russia by the US and Europe with such fanfare last year in the wake of the Ukrainian fiasco has receded from Western headlines. In Russia, it coagulated with the oil price plunge, and during the first two quarters this year, the economy shrank sharply.
But whatever the “sanction spiral” was supposed to accomplish, some countries in Europe, among them Germany, are desperately dependent on Russian gas to heat homes and offices, and to supply power plants and industrial installation. The threat that Russia would turn off the valve hung over the EU last winter. At the time, Eurocrats beat the bushes to explain that no one would be without natural gas. But not everyone believed it, including the German government [LEAKED: What Happens to Germany if Russia Turns off the Gas].
The scare seems to have left a lasting impression.
Or was it just about money?
Over the winter, Russian natural gas exports by pipeline to Europe dropped to the lowest levels in years, and were 22% below the five-year average, according to US EIAcalculations of International Energy Agency data. Exports dropped even further to 6.4 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in January and 5.3 Bcf/d in February, down 36% and 40% respectively from the five-year average for these months.
But in March, natural gas exports from Russia to Europe began to increase. And by the second quarter, they jumped 58% over the first quarter. In July, the most recent month for which data is available, exports hit 11.9 Bcf/d. Exports via the Ukraine decreased, but exports via the Nord Stream pipeline into Germany soared 55% year-over-year in June and 59% in July to a new record. To heck with any half-forgotten sanctions (2015 exports, brown line):
Then there’s the money.
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