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Texas Update- November 2017

November 23, 2017

Texas Update- November 2017 Dean Fantazzini has provided his latest estimates of Texas oil and natural gas output. His analysis is based on RRC data only. Each RRC data set from Jan 2014 to Sept 2017 for crude and from April 2014 to Sept 2017 for condensate and natural gas are used in the “all […]

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OPEC October Production Data

November 15, 2017

OPEC October Production Data All data below is based on the latest OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report. All data is through October 2017 and is in thousand barrels per day. I have now included Equatorial Guneia although I only have data from January 2015 from OPEC’s secondary sources. The January 2015 E. Guneia data was extended back […]

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Norway and UK Production Update

November 8, 2017

Norway and UK Production Update Short-term trends for UK oil and gas production and, to a lesser extent, Norway can be rendered a bit meaningless by seasonal impacts from summer maintenance turn-arounds and cyclic gas demand. Overall, though, both are at or approaching the tail end of the production curve, but with slight upticks in […]

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Recent Production: Colombia, Mexico and Brazil

October 18, 2017

Recent Production: Colombia, Mexico and Brazil Colombia Colombia production is holding a plateau over the past year after a large decline in the last part of 2015 and first half of 2016. August value was 858 kbpd (down 0.04% y-o-y). Colombia oil reserves at the end of 2016 were 1.66 Gb (down 16.8% from 2 […]

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How OPEC Continues To Cheat On Its Own Deal

October 11, 2017

How OPEC Continues To Cheat On Its Own Deal All data below is based on the latest OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report. All data is through September 2017 and is in thousand barrels per day. (Click to enlarge) The above chart does not include the 14th member of OPEC that was recently added, Equatorial Guinea. […]

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An Improved Empirical Model For Oil Prices

September 22, 2017

An Improved Empirical Model For Oil Prices This is an update to the post An Empirical Model For Oil Prices and Some Implications in which we discussed a model for oil prices as a function of 3 years of production, that is oil price in year t was estimated by production in year t, the […]

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OPEC August Crude Oil Production

September 12, 2017

OPEC August Crude Oil Production All data below is based on the latest OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report. All data is through August 2017 and is in thousand barrels per day. The above chart does not include the 14th member of OPEC that was just added, Equatorial Guinea. I do not have historical data for Equatorial Guinea […]

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MEXICO Oil Reserves and Production

MEXICO Oil Reserves and Production In dollar terms, since mid 2015 Mexico has been a net importer of hydrocarbons (oil, natural gas, petroleum products and petrochemicals combined). To date it has been a relatively small and fairly constant amount, but with their oil production declining, and oil prices apparently continuing to fall while natural gas […]

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The Future of US Light Tight Oil (LTO)

The Future of US Light Tight Oil (LTO) The future output from the light tight oil (LTO) sector of the US oil industry is the subject of much speculation. Above I present some possible future output scenarios based on a simple model of US LTO, the scenarios are compared with the EIA’s 2017 Annual Energy […]

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End of the U.S. Major Oil Industry Era: Big Trouble At ExxonMobil

November 12, 2016

END OF THE U.S. MAJOR OIL INDUSTRY ERA: Big Trouble At ExxonMobil The era of the mighty U.S. major oil industry is coming to an end as the country’s largest petroleum company is in big trouble. While ExxonMobil has been the most profitable U.S. oil company in the past, it suffered its worst year on […]

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Bakken Production Down, OPEC Production Up

October 16, 2016

Bakken Production Down, OPEC Production Up North Dakota has released August production data for the Bakken and also for all North Dakota. Bakken production was down 46,433 barrels per day to 930,931 bod, All North Dakota was down 48,695 bpd to 981,039 bpd. This is first time North Dakota has been below 1 million barrels per day since March of 2014. […]

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Texas Oil and Natural Gas Update- Sept 2016

October 1, 2016

Texas Oil and Natural Gas Update- Sept 2016 Dean has provided his monthly update for Texas Oil and Natural Gas. The most recent month’s estimate is often volatile and may be ignored, the June and May estimates are likely pretty good (within 1% and 2%), the April 2016 estimate is likely to be robust(within 1% […]

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Mexico, China and Beyond

September 25, 2016

Mexico, China and Beyond Ron Patterson’s post asking if China’s oil production has peaked reminded me of Mexico which also produces mainly from supergiant fields. Mexico’s oil production peaked in 2004 and has averaged a 3.5 percent per annum decline rate since, with a peak yearly decline rate of 9 percent in 2008. China’s oil production has fallen 10% […]

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Bakken July Production Data

September 17, 2016

Bakken July Production Data North Dakota has just come out with their oil production numbers for July 2016. Bakken production was up by 3,046 barrels per day while all North Dakota production was up 2,376 barrels per day. The EIA’s Drilling Productivity Report missed it for July. They will make the correction next month. Barrels per day per well […]

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Overview of the Northern Deepwater Gulf of Mexico

September 10, 2016

Overview of the Northern Deepwater Gulf of Mexico The post that follows is a guest post by southlageo, a geologist with over 30 years of oil industry experience. In this post, I will address 3 topics relating to the Northern Deepwater Gulf of Mexico – 1. Historical oil production 2. One view of the future […]

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