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China chooses her weapons

China chooses her weapons China’s recent mini-devaluations had less to do with her mounting economic challenges, and more to do with a statement from the IMF on 4 August, that it was proposing to defer the decision to include the yuan in the SDR until next October. The IMF’s excuse was to avoid changes at […]

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These Currencies Could Be The Next To Tumble In Global FX Wars

These Currencies Could Be The Next To Tumble In Global FX Wars Earlier this week, Kazakhstan moved to a free float for the tenge, prompting the currency to plunge by some 25%. The move came after the country’s exporters could no longer stand the pain from plunging crude prices and the RUB’s relative weakness. China’s move to […]

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It Starts: Broad Retaliation Against China in Currency War

It Starts: Broad Retaliation Against China in Currency War The biggest global “tail risk” is China’s deteriorating economy and an emerging market debt crisis, according to BofA Merrill Lynch’s monthly poll of fund managers. And 48% of them were expecting the Fed to raise rates, despite languid growth and low inflation expectations. Hot money is already fleeing emerging […]

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Currency Wars Continue As Kazakh Currency Crashes 25% After Peg Abandoned

Currency Wars Continue As Kazakh Currency Crashes 25% After Peg Abandoned On Tuesday we remarked on the increasingly perilous plight of yet another country whose economy has come under increased pressure from plunging oil prices and China’s move to devalue the yuan: Kazakhstan. Just one day after allowing the tenge to fall sharply in the interbank market […]

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Canada “Getting Clocked” by Something Far Bigger than Oil

Canada “Getting Clocked” by Something Far Bigger than Oil Canada is likely in a technical recession, after the economy shrank for the first five months of the year. It’s heavily dependent on commodities. The oil bust and the broader commodity rout have been blamed liberally. The theory goes that the problem is contained. The oil […]

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China Stocks Crash, More Than Half Of Market Halted Limit Down; PBOC Loss Of Control Spooks Global Assets

China Stocks Crash, More Than Half Of Market Halted Limit Down; PBOC Loss Of Control Spooks Global Assets China sure has its micro-managing hands full these days. Just hours after the PBOC announced a modestly “revalued” fixing in the CNY, which curiously led to weaker trading in the onshore Yuan for most of the day before a […]

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Indonesia Impaled: Currency Crashes To 1998 Asian Crisis Low As Exports Crater

Indonesia Impaled: Currency Crashes To 1998 Asian Crisis Low As Exports Crater On Monday we laid out the rather dire road ahead for the world’s emerging economies in the face of China’s entry into the global currency wars. The path ahead is riddled with exported deflation and decreased trade competitiveness for a whole host of emerging economies […]

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This Week In Energy: The Growing Threat From China

This Week In Energy: The Growing Threat From China Oil prices dropped to new six-year lows this week as WTI dipped below $42 per barrel. The big piece of news this week was the currency depreciation in China. It seems we are talking more and more these days about the warning signs coming from China’s […]

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Malaysia Meltdown: Asian Currency Crisis 2.0 Sends Ringgit, Stocks, Bonds Crashing

Malaysia Meltdown: Asian Currency Crisis 2.0 Sends Ringgit, Stocks, Bonds Crashing When China went the “nuclear” (to quote SocGen) devaluation route earlier this week in a last ditch effort to rescue its export-driven economy from the perils of an increasingly painful dollar peg, everyone knew things were about to get a whole lot worse for […]

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Both ECB And BOJ Warn More QE May Be Response To Chinese Currency War

Both ECB And BOJ Warn More QE May Be Response To Chinese Currency War Minutes from the ECB’s most recent policy meeting reveal that Mario Draghi and company have a number of concerns about the pace of economic growth in the euroarea and about the outlook for inflation which, much to the governing council’s surprise, […]

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The US-China “Currency War”: Winners and Losers

The US-China “Currency War”: Winners and Losers American politicians aren’t congratulating the Communist Party in Beijing for its success in following the capitalist proverb “enrich yourself,” but screaming foul play: China falsifies the exchange rate of the yuan so that it can make more money off the USA than vice versa. The accusation, made by […]

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China Black Swans Not So Rare Anymore as PBOC Shocks Markets

China Black Swans Not So Rare Anymore as PBOC Shocks Markets Investors should prepare for more surprises out of China after the yuan’s devaluation became the country’s latest unexpected policy move to roil global markets. That’s the advice from Fraser Howie, co-author of “Red Capitalism: The Fragile Financial Foundation of China’s Extraordinary Rise.” He says […]

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A Death Cross, Wild Market Swings And A Currency War – And We Haven’t Even Gotten To September Yet

A Death Cross, Wild Market Swings And A Currency War – And We Haven’t Even Gotten To September Yet Things continue to line up in textbook fashion for a major financial crisis by the end of 2015.  This week, Wall Street has been buzzing about the first “death cross” that we have seen for the Dow […]

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China Provides Another Threat to Oil Prices

China Provides Another Threat to Oil Prices First it was a stock market meltdown, now it’s a weakening currency. China continues to present significant risks to the oil market. On August 11, China decided to devalue its currency in an effort to keep its export-driven economy competitive. The yuan fell 1.9 percent on Tuesday, the […]

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Emerging Market Currencies To Crash 30-50%, Jen Says

Emerging Market Currencies To Crash 30-50%, Jen Says Less than 24 hours ago, we argued that although it might have seemed as though Brazil hit rock bottom in Q2 when it suffered through the worst inflation-growth mix in over a decade, things were likely to get worse still. The country, which is also coping with twin deficits […]

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