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The Countries Best And Worst Prepared For An Epidemic
The Countries Best And Worst Prepared For An Epidemic
The Centers For Disease Control and Prevention has stated that another case of the coronavirus has been detected in the United States, bringing the total number of confirmed cases to five. The latest one was confirmed in Arizona and all five cases involve people who recently travelled to Wuhan, the epicenter of the outbreak. According to tracking by Johns Hopkins University, nearly 3,000 people have been infected, the vast majority of them in China. The coronavirus has also slowly spread to some neigboring countrieswith cases reported in Thailand, Japan, Malaysia, South Korea, Vietnam and Singapore.
Even though Chinese authorities have said that they have observed evidence of person-to-person transmission, health officials in Orange and LA countries in the United States have said that the precautions in place should stop any spread of the coronavirus. That raises the question: which countries are the most and least prepared to contain large outbreaks of disease? In October of last year, the Global Health Security Index was released and it assessed levels of global health security across 195 countries. It specifically analyzed levels of preparation by focusing on whether countries have the proper tools in place to deal with serious disease outbreaks. Countries were scored on a scale of 0 to 100 where 100 is the highest level of preparedness.
The United States was named as the country with the strongest measures in place and it came first with 83.5 out of 100. The United Kingdom came second with 77.9 followed by the Netherlands with 75.6. China, which has initiated a series of lockdowns in response to the outbreak, comes 51st with a score of 48.2. This map shows levels of preparation across the world and Africa’s vulnerability is immediately noticeable.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Washington Declares State Of Emergency After First US Virus Death; CDC Says “No National Spread In US”: Live Updates
Washington Declares State Of Emergency After First US Virus Death; CDC Says “No National Spread In US”: Live Updates
Summary:
- CDC says “no national spread of coronavirus in US”
- US reports first death from Covid-19 (in Washington State)
- Washington declares state of emergency
- US Surgeon General says “stop buying masks”
- Trump blasts media/Dems for ‘hoax’-gate
- Germany boosts border controls
- Italy tops 1000 cases (1,128, with 29 possible virus-linked deaths)
- France bans large gatherings
* * *
Update (1530ET): Following the first death of a Coid-19-infected person in the US, Washington state has declared a state of emergency.
King County official Jeff Duchin says that 27 patients and 25 staff members at the long-term care facility in Kirkland, WA are showing symptoms.
CDC’s Messonnier stated that “there is not a national spread of the virus in the US,” and adds that US has capacity to test 75,000 people.
* * *
Update (1515ET): President Trump has finally wrapped up a lengthy press conference that most agreed was more convincing than his previous effort on Wednesday. Trump confirmed that there are now 22 cases in the US outside of the evacuees from Wuhan and the ‘Diamond Princess’.
Read more about it here.
Washington State is expected to hold a press conference of its own at 4 pm ET.
* * *
Update (1350ET): Trump is officially 20 minutes late, and following reports about Trump tightening the border with Mexico, the governor of the northern Mexican state of Coahuila has confirmed what appears to be the country’s fourth case.
Here’s more on the border reports from Reuters.
The administration is also weighing possible restrictions on the entry of travelers from South Korea, Italy and Japan. The White House instructed DHS to draft a range of options about travel restrictions related to those countries.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Why a bear market will lead to a dollar collapse
Why a bear market will lead to a dollar collapse
Falling equity markets this week are likely to signal the onset of a bear market, responding to a combination of the coronavirus spreading beyond China and persistent indications of a developing recession.
This has provoked a flight into US Treasuries, with the ten-year yield falling to an all-time low of 1.31%. This will prove to be a mistake, given US price inflation which on independent estimates is running close to ten per cent, exposing US Treasuries as badly overpriced.
After this short-term response, much higher US Treasury yields are inevitable. Foreigners, who possess more dollars and dollar investments than the entire US GDP will almost certainly sell, driving bond yields up and the dollar down, leaving the Fed the only real buyer of US Treasuries.
This article goes through the sequence of events likely to destroy value in US financial assets and the dollar as well. And what goes for the US goes for all other fiat-currencies and their financial markets.
Introduction
In my last article I pointed out that the cumulative effect of central bank intervention has led to bond prices that have come badly adrift from reality. Taking a more realistic estimate of the dollar’s purchasing power than that implied in goal-sought CPI numbers, plus an estimated amount for the time preference involved, ten-year US Treasuries should yield closer to 10% to maturity, not the 1.31% implied today. If a ten-year bond has a coupon such that it is currently priced at par, the price should halve.
Those who put our monetary misfortunes down to the coronavirus have missed the point. Yes, it will be fatal, both economically and unfortunately for some of us as individuals as well. It is early days in what is definitely becoming a pandemic, that is to say an epidemic that is not restricted to national boundaries.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
China Reports Catastrophic Data: PMIs Crash To Record Low, Confirming Coronavirus Collapse
China Reports Catastrophic Data: PMIs Crash To Record Low, Confirming Coronavirus Collapse
One week ago, ahead of today’s Chinese data release which would for the first time capture the devastation from the coronavirus pandemic, we wrote that “to those who have been following our series of high-frequency, daily indicators of China’s economy, it will probably not come as a surprise that the world’s second biggest economy has ground to a halt, its GDP set to post the first negative print in modern history. To everyone else who is just now catching up, we have some news: it’s going to be bad.”
Specifically, we said that ahead of official Chinese economic data which will soon start capturing the period when the coronavirus hit the nation, Nomura’s Chief China economist Ting Lu noted that China’s Emerging Industries PMI (EPMI), which gauges momentum in the country’s high-tech industries and is closely correlated with official manufacturing PMI, slumped to 29.9 in February (from 50.1 in January!), its lowest-print on record (introduced Jan ’14), which as Nomura’s Charlie McElligott writes “is pure reflection of the devastating impact of the COVID-19 outbreak.“
What does this mean for the closely followed China manufacturing PMI? As NOmura wrote, “even adjusting for seasonality and expected progress in business resumption in the coming week, we estimate the official manufacturing PMI could drop to a range of 30-40 in Feb.”
Well, it turns out that Nomura was optimistic, because moments ago China’s National Statistics Bureau reported the latest, February PMIs and they were absolutely catastrophic:
- Manufacturing PMI crashes to 35.7 in Feb, sharply below the 45.0 consensus estimate, and down from 50.0 in January. A record low.
- Non-Manufacturing PMI plummets to 28.9, also far below the 50.5 consensus, estimate, and down nearly 50% from the 54.1 in Jan. Also a record low.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
The Global Economy Was Sinking Long Before The Coronavirus Appeared
The Global Economy Was Sinking Long Before The Coronavirus Appeared
In order to determine if a geopolitical or economic threat is legitimate, I find it helps to watch how the mainstream propaganda narrative flows and changes. For example, for the past year as almost every fundamental indicator was flashing warning signs on the global economy the primary message in the mainstream was that central banks would never allow any major shocks to the financial system. In other words, they would pour in cash at the slightest hint of trouble. The conclusion for the investment world? To “buy the F’ing dip!” Why not? You can’t lose.
Despite the fact that fraudulent stock markets artificially inflated by corporate stock buybacks are irrelevant to the health of our system, they still represent a psychological placebo for the masses. Very few people care that it is a historic bubble; as long as everything is in the green they assume that all is well with the economy.
In the past, anyone who pointed out that this attitude was a recipe for disaster, anyone who argued that the system was breaking and the Everything Bubble was popping was called a “doom monger” or “chicken little”.
I’ve noticed very recently (in the last week) that this attack response is shifting in an interesting way. Where propaganda peddlers used to call us “paranoid”, now they argue that “our prepping or precious metals stacking won’t save us…” People are “coming to take our supplies…” they say. That’s quite a 180 degree flip flop. As preppers and alternative economists are proven more and more right everyday, the narrative has changed from telling us we’re wrong, to telling us we will be sorry for being right.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Peter Schiff: The Real Safe-Haven Money Is Going Into Gold
Peter Schiff: The Real Safe-Haven Money Is Going Into Gold
Stock markets tanked on Monday. The Dow Jones was down over 1031 points. It was the biggest drop in two years for the Dow. The Nasdaq shed 355 points. The S&P500 was down 111.
As stocks dropped, the bond market was red-hot. Prices soared and yields dipped to record lows. Bonds are considered a safe-haven, but in his latest podcast, Peter said US Treasuries aren’t a safe-space. When it’s all said and done, the only safe-haven left standing will be gold.
Coronavirus fear was the immediate catalyst for the sell-off as the virus spread outside China, but Peter noted that US stock markets were already vulnerable before the virus outbreak.
Remember, we’re talking about the US stock market that’s at bubble territory, nosebleed valuations, long in the tooth, the longest bull market in US history that has been fueled by the most monetary and reckless fiscal policy in US history. But this is a bubble in search of a pin. So, maybe the coronavirus is going to be the pin. But if we had a healthy market, if we had a healthy economy, it wouldn’t matter about the coronavirus. It’s because the economy is sick. That’s the problem, not the people who are infected with this virus.”
Peter said it looks like the coronavirus is going to have a bigger effect on the global economy than he originally thought. But there is a lot to worry about even if we didn’t have the coronavirus.
So now, when you have this too – you have another straw on a camel’s back that is ready to just implode at any moment because he’s already barely able to support all the straws that are already up there. I mean, hey, why not sell? Why not lighten up in the stock market?”
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Covid-19 Cargo Cults & Why The Market Is Still Too Complacent
Covid-19 Cargo Cults & Why The Market Is Still Too Complacent
In the South Seas there is a Cargo Cult of people. During the war they saw airplanes land with lots of good materials, and they want the same thing to happen now. So they’ve arranged to make things like runways, to put fires along the sides of the runways, to make a wooden hut for a man to sit in, with two wooden pieces on his head like headphones and bars of bamboo sticking out like antennas—he’s the controller—and they wait for the airplanes to land. They’re doing everything right. The form is perfect. It looks exactly the way it looked before. But it doesn’t work. No airplanes land. So I call these things Cargo Cult Science, because they follow all the apparent precepts and forms of scientific investigation, but they’re missing something essential, because the planes don’t land.
Richard Feynman, The Cargo Cult Science (Speech at Caltech in 1974)
I tease Ben sometimes for devoting his graduate studies to political science. Not because it isn’t a worthy field of study. I tease him because the idea of politics being a science is absurd on its face. And then he usually reminds me that my economics degree is nominally referred to as a science degree, too.
I am immediately chastened.
There are a lot of scientifically minded people in the investment industry. In general, this is for the good. I mean, of course it is. Investing in risky assets constantly appeals to our baser tendencies toward fear and greed. Worse, we do not respond to those appeals in isolation. We are surrounded by others who are watching us and responding to our actions for their own benefit. Process is a gift to investors.
And yet.
Rabobank: Markets Need To Start Pricing For One Of Two Things – One Bad, The Other Terrible
Rabobank: Markets Need To Start Pricing For One Of Two Things – One Bad, The Other Terrible
It is that rarest of occasions. Not a global pandemic, because: 1) we still aren’t in one yet, officially; and 2) we have had that pandemic declaration made in the relatively recent past (2009-10). Rather, we are being told by well-known voices on Wall Street NOT to buy this particular dip in stocks, which closed down once again in the US (S&P -0.4%) to make it three losing sessions in three. The Nikkei is also down another 2.1% this morning in Asia. Furthermore, those “Kud-LOW” bond yields are also now Kud-LOWER, with the 10-year US Treasury at 1.30%, a new record that I suspect will not hold for long. Aussie 10s also hit a new record low of 0.84%, as once the virus hits housing prices in Sydney and Melbourne, the RBA will of course be forced to act.
Is that equity slump and yield-move justified though? Certainly, when the WHO notes that the spread of COVID-19 is now faster and wider outside China than within it. (Albeit with a further press report alleging that China’s numbers are far higher than being officially recognised). At time of writing we now have the first cases in new locations like Georgia, Greece, Finland, Macedonia, Norway, and Romania, to say nothing of suspicions of what may be happening unrecorded in Africa, as well as what looks like the first case in the US unrelated directly to China, and with 91 reported as under precautionary quarantine in the States too. This virus is indeed now threatening to spread at the pace previously seen in China in many other locations.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
President Trump Appoints VP Pence As Coronavirus Czar, Stocks Slide
President Trump Appoints VP Pence As Coronavirus Czar, Stocks Slide
Update (1845): In his long-awaited press conference, President Trump defended the White House’s response to the coronavirus outbreak, insisted that he would accept whatever amount of crisis-response funds approved by Congress and appointed VP Mike to be his “Coronavirus Czar”.
In the middle of Trump’s presser, the Washington Post dropped a bombshell report, claiming that the latest US coronavirus case has been confirmed in Northern California, and that it was the first case with no clear path of origin. That case would be the US’s 16th.
Trump started with an update on the 15 confirmed US cases that weren’t infected aboard the Diamond Princess or in Wuhan, claiming that 8 of 15 have returned, only 1 is still in the hospital, and 5 have fully recovered.
On the subject of the emergency spending package, Trump said that “if Congress wants to give us more, we’ll take it.”
“We’re requesting 2.5. Some Republicans would like us to get 4 and some Democrats want 8.5,” he said.
Though he added that “hopefully we won’t need too much because we’ve done a tremendous job,” Trump said.
In one of the funnier moments, Trump remarked about the flu: “The flu kills between 25,000 to 60,000 people a year – that was shocking to me.”
The president also stressed America’s readiness for anything.
“We’re very, very ready for this, for anything, whether it’s going to be a breakout with larger proportions or whether we stay at that very low level,” Trump said.
Moving on to the subject of a vaccine, Trump said he expected one would be finished “fairly rapidly.”
“We have a lot of great quarantine facilities we’re rapidly developing a vaccine and speaking to a the doctors we think this is something we can develop fairly rapidly.”
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
San Francisco Declares State Of Emergency Over Covid-19; Germany Confirms 18th Case: Live Updates
San Francisco Declares State Of Emergency Over Covid-19; Germany Confirms 18th Case: Live Updates
Summary:
- WHO warns the rest of the world “is not ready for the virus to spread…”
- CDC warns Americans “should prepare for possible community spread” of virus.
- San Francisco Mayor declares state of emergency
- Later, CDC says pandemic not a question of it, but when
- Germany confirms 2nd case on Tuesday, brings total to 17
- Italy cases spike to 322; deaths hit 10
- Japan’s Shiseido tesll 8k employees to work from home
- Kudlow tries to jawbone markets higher
- HHS Sec. Azar warns US lacks stockpiles of masks
- Italy Hotel in Lockdown After First Coronavirus Case in Liguria
- Algeria confirms 1st case
- First case in Switzerland
- Kuwait halts all flights to Singapore and Japan
- Iran confirms 95 cases, 15 deaths
- First case in Austria
- First case in Spain
- Iran Deputy Health Minister infected with Covid-19
* * *
Update (1750ET): Following reports just a few hours ago claiming Germany had reported its first case of the virus, Europe’s largest economy has just reported its second case, according to domestic media reports.
The first patient was reportedly a 25-year-old German who recently traveled to Milan. Patient No. 2 was confirmed near Germany’s border with the Netherlands. The man is in critical condition.
This brings Germany’s total cases to 18.
Germany’s neighbors Austria and Switzerland confirmed their first cases on Tuesday as the virus spread through Central Europe.
Over in Japan, Shiseido told 8,000 employees, roughly 30% of the personal-care company’s workforce, to telecommute in keeping with the Japanese government’s push for private employers to keep their workers out of offices and public places. Japanese companies started this more than a week ago, and have since expanded the number of employees affected.
* * *
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
THIS IS NOT A DRILL: Why Covid-19 Could Be the Deadly Pandemic That Changes Everything
THIS IS NOT A DRILL: Why Covid-19 Could Be the Deadly Pandemic That Changes Everything
It has been almost three months since the Wuhan coronavirus, now known officially as COVID-19, emerged in Wuhan, China. This novel coronavirus is the latest candidate to be the next major pandemic. We’ve learned a lot about COVID-19 in that time, and unfortunately, there is still so much we don’t know.
One thing that has becoming impossible to ignore, however, is that this not a drill.
Like all outbreaks, it’s impossible to know for sure if any particular one will become the next deadly, global pandemic until it either happens or doesn’t happen.
Unfortunately, COVID-19 is shaping into what appears to be the one that folks will be reading about in a hundred years in the same way we look back in history at the Spanish flu.
What We Thought We Knew
When the first cluster of 41 patients was identified in early December 2019 in Wuhan, China, early data suggested that the virus was only of real concern to the elderly, infirm, and those with comorbidities, such as diabetes and heart disease.
These would be standard expectations of a viral respiratory illness, similar to the flu. However, further inspection of that cluster only showed about half with serious illness fit that profile, meaning the other half who sought hospital care were younger, presumably healthier adults.
This novel coronavirus also had an early reported case fatality rate of about 2%, as reported by the World Health Organization (WHO). A mortality rate of 2% is concerning, but not all that alarming. It’s a little higher than the typical influenza case fatality rate. But, it wasn’t close to the case fatality rate of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS), another coronavirus that can be fatal to humans and has a case fatality rate of 34.4%.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
NYT: “The Coronavirus Is Not A Civilization-Ender But…”
NYT: “The Coronavirus Is Not A Civilization-Ender But…”
Just because the New York Times Opinion Section is a perennial object of ridicule by both the right and the left doesn’t mean its writers don’t occasionally make a good point.
And today, we’d like to draw our readers’ attention to a column published Tuesday by Ross Douthat, a member of the NYT’s editorial board.
As Douthat points out, the outbreak has put Democrats, and liberals more broadly, in a difficult position. Eager to jump at every opportunity to criticize President Trump, many are secretly hoping the outbreak gets worse in the US because it could hurt Trump’s chances of reelection. Many, including top Dems like Schumer, Pelosi etc., have already accused the administration of being unprepared and not doing enough.
But if the outbreak does get worse, it could deal another savage blow to the system of global frictionless exchange of people, goods, services and capital, by making countries more suspicious of allies and enemies alike.
This is why liberals are bashing Trump while arguing that pointing out China’s failures is “racist.”
Republicans also have an incentive to play down the outbreak, as Trump is doing: They need to keep the market buoyant and stave off a recession that could tilt the election in favor of the insurgent socialists backing Bernie Sanders.
In other words: The virus may not be a civilization-ender, as Douthat points out. But it could be the straw that breaks globalization’s back.
* * *
Investors who figured this out last week are already cleaning up. But maybe there’s still something to be learned here:
Read the text below:
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Americans “Should Prepare For Community Spread,” CDC Warns As HHS’ Azar Admits US Lacks Mask Stockpile: Live Updates
Americans “Should Prepare For Community Spread,” CDC Warns As HHS’ Azar Admits US Lacks Mask Stockpile: Live Updates
Summary:
- WHO warns the rest of the world “is not ready for the virus to spread…”
- CDC warns Americans “should prepare for possible community spread” of virus.
- HHS Sec. Azar warns US lacks stockpiles of masks
- Italy Hotel in Lockdown After First Coronavirus Case in Liguria
- First case in Switzerland
- First case in Austria
- First case in Spain
- Iran Deputy Health Minister infected with Covid-19
* * *
Update (1145ET): US CDC says COVID-19 epidemic is rapidly evolving and expanding, warning that a vaccine could be ready in a year, and Americans should prepare for possible spreads in communities.
As coronavirus spreads, WHO urges world to ‘prepare for potential pandemic’
“Now is the time for businesses, hospitals, communities, and schools to begin preparing to respond to coronavirus.”
Additionally, HHS Secretary Alex Azar says at Senate panel hearing that the U.S. doesn’t have enough stockpiles of masks and ventilators to fight the coronavirus and that’s one reason the Trump administration is seeking $2.5b in funding.
About 30m so-called N95 respirator masks are stockpiled but as many as 300m are needed for healthcare workers, Azar says, adding that his department doesn’t yet know how much they would cost.
Democratic Sen. Patty Murray, who questioned the administration’s readiness to battle the spread of the virus:
“I’m deeply concerned we’re way behind the eight ball on this,” Murray said while questioning Azar at the Appropriations subcmte hearing.
Azar also says the money would be used to help develop vaccines and treatments for the virus and that a vaccine could be ready in a year.
* * *
Update (1100ET): WHO’s Bruce Aylward told journalists that China’s actions “prevented hundreds of thousands of cases” and warned that the rest of the world “is not ready for the virus to spread,” adding that “countries should instruct citizens now on hygeine.”
* * *
Update (1001ET): A case of the novel corona virus has been confirmed for the first time in Switzerland. The federal government announced on Tuesday. One person was tested positive for the virus, said those responsible.
Italian officials stated that the first patient was “obviously infected in Italy,” and will consider further measures if they think “uncontrolled transmission” of the virus is occurring.
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…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Rabobank: Several Things Cratered Yesterday
Rabobank: Several Things Cratered Yesterday
Several things cratered yesterday.
The first was global stocks. The S&P dropped 3.4%, which once upon a time was just a normal bad day in the office, but in our new normal of central banks tacitly and US presidents openly targeting stock prices as the key driver of the global ‘economy’, that kind of decline in plutocratic wealth is both rare and a nasty shock. Regardless, more and more companies are now reporting that either earnings or supply chains are going to be impacted by this crisis – as we had feared would be inevitable. Asia this morning has seen follow-on equity selling, with the Japanese Nikkei -3.3% at time of writing and even China, where all is now close to being closer to normal again (or so we are told) -1.6%. However, US futures are rising as I type. It is, after all, cheaper to buy, and our underlying asset-pumping infrastructure is still intact, even if global supply chains and the real economy aren’t. But who cares about them anyway? Indeed, “Please hold the panic” says the Wall Street Journal, and US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin yesterday happily overstepped his boundaries to tell us that central banks will of course cut rates if the virus impact grows.
The second to crater was global bond yields. In this case, 10-year US Treasuries hit a low of under 1.36%, although we are back up to 1.39% along with US equity futures, with the 2-year at 1.28%. The market is now expecting the Fed to cut again later this year, which should be no real surprise to anyone except the Fed. (Not so much over the risk to life, perhaps, or to growth – just to equities.) In the meantime, we got ‘just’ around USD40bn in new Fed repo madness to tide us over for a few days…or perhaps hours. Who knows?
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
