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The Texas RRC Oil and Gas Production Data is out. This data is always incomplete. But we can get some idea of what the trend is by comparing it with previous months. This is what I have done in the charts below. If the latest months data is below the previous months data then the trend is down. But if the latest months (incomplete) data is above the previous months (incomplete) data the trend is up.

All RRC data is through November 2015 but the EIA data is only through October. The oil data is in barrels per day.

Texas C+C

The trend is definitely down. The scale makes it difficult to gauge the month to month change but I have the exact month to month change here in barrels per day. Of course this only gives you a general idea of what is happening. The final change could be either less or greater than the numbers indicate here. But the EIA data should be very close.

Jun. to Jul. 7,245
Jul. to Aug. -63,827
Aug. to Sep. 34,507
Sep. to Oct. -33,486
Oct. to Nov. -52,802
Jun. to Nov. -108,363

EIA Dec. to Oct. -121,000

Dean C+C

Dr. Dean Fantazzini has developed an algorithm that gives a very close estimate of what the final data will look like. His data and the EIA data track each other pretty close.

Texas Crude Only

Crude only has had the lions share of the decline, the incomplete data is down 91,000 bpd since June. Dean Oil

Dr. Dean Fantazzini’s corrected data indicates that crude only will actually be down about what the incomplete data indicates.

Texas Condensate

Condensate shows a slightly more erratic decline, down 17,000 bpd since June.

Dean Condensate

And Dean’s condensate chart disagrees slightly with what I would estimate. He has condensate up in October where the RRC incomplete data has it down.

Texas Total Gas

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

International Rig Counts Still Falling

January 12, 2016

International Rig Counts Still Falling

The monthly Baker Hughes International Rig Count came out a few days ago. Baker Hughes international rig counts do not include US, Canada, FSU countries or on shore China. All rig count data here is through December 2015 and includes all rigs, gas, oil and misc.

BH Total Intl.

Total international rig count was down 14 rigs from November to December. From December 2014 to December 2015 rig count was down 218 rigs or 16.6 percent.

BH Latin America

Latin America was down 14 rigs from November and down 99 rigs or 26.8 percent since December of 2014.

BH Europe

Europe was up 6 rigs in December but down 34 rigs from December or 23 percent from December 2014.

BH Africa

Africa was up 1 rig in December but down 47 rigs or 34.1 percent since December 2014.

BH Middle East

The Middle East was up 3 rigs in December and up 19 rigs or 19 percent since December 2014.

BH Asia Pacific

Asia Pacific was down 10 rigs in December and down 57 rigs or 22.4 percent since December 2014.

BH Total World

Baker Hughes Total World is just Total International plus the US and Canada. It still does not include any FSU nation or on shore China.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Confessions of a Doomer

January 10, 2016

Confessions of a Doomer

I need to tell you of a very special talent I have. I have the very unusual and rare ability to find, to ferret out if you will, the blatantly obvious. I mean if it is as plain as the nose on your face, I am going to figure it out. What shocks me is that this ability is so rare. What is happening to our earth and our species is so obvious it is mind blowing.

I could give you thousands of forest disappearing, deserts expanding, rivers drying up, water tables dropping, top soil disappearing, species going extinct, ocean fish disappearing, pollution and plastic waste killing sea birds, and on and on and on. But I will start with one example that exemplifies what is happening to the entire world, the Aral Sea.

What has been happening to the world can be exemplified by this short 3 minute video on the Aral Sea: The Aral Sea story.

Aral Sea 1

The Aral Sea was once the fifth largest inland sea in the world. It supported a huge fishing industry. But that was before they dammed its tributaries to irrigate cotton fields.

Aral Sea 2

Aral Sea 7

By 2000 it was mostly gone. The 1960 shoreline is shown on this photograph.

Aral Sea 10

And today it is almost completely gone.

Aral Sea 13

Of course the fishing fleet is still there.

Lake Chad

Of course almost the exact same story can be told about Lake Chad. This once vast inland body of water once supported tens of thousands with its bountiful fish supply is now not much more than a small mud hole.

What is happening to the Aral Sea and Lake Chad is happening to the entire world. Rivers are drying up. Water tables all over the world are dropping, some by meters per year. Land in India and China, as well as in other Asian nations, irrigated from underground water, that once fed billions, now feed far less and will soon feed none.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Doubting The Peak

January 1, 2016

Doubting The Peak

Dennis Coyne, an editor and frequent contributor to this blog, has suggested that we are not at peak oil. He argues that there is likely to be a dip in production starting next year but higher prices will cause things to turn around and we will surpass the 2015 peak by 2019. He commented a few days ago:

If we take some of the larger producers that have been increasing output and compare with the rest of the world(ROW) using EIA data from Jan 2004 to June 2015 (using the trailing 12 month average to focus on the trend) we see ROW decline has been relatively modest (1.4% based on the trailing 12 month output in June 2015). The eight increasing producing countries I have chosen are Brazil, Canada, China, Iran, Iraq, Russia, Saudi Arabia, and US and ROW=World minus the 8 countries just listed.

One possible scenario is that output is flat for the Big 8 in 2016 so that World C+C output falls by 485 kb/d in 2016 (average output for the year compared to the 2015 average). Over the 2009 to Jun 2015 period the Big 8 increased output at about 1300 kb/d per year, if we assume this rate slows to half the previous rate to a 650 kb/d per year increase (1.4%/year), then the peak is surpassed in 4 years in 2019. On a per country basis this would be a little more than a 80 kb/d increase in average annual output for each of these countries, though I doubt it would be divided equally.

So I have taken close look Dennis’s “Big 8” countries as well as “The Rest of the World”, and looked at their JODI data charts. The last data point is October 2015.

First, the rest of the world.

Dennis's Rest of the World

This is the world less Brazil, Canada, China, Iraq, Iran, Russia, Saudi Arabia and the USA. As a group they peaked in October 2004 and have been in decline ever since.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

OPEC’s 2015 World Oil Outlook

December 25, 2015

OPEC’s 2015 World Oil Outlook

The OPEC 2015 World Oil Outlook came out a few days ago. They basically produce two outlooks, a medium term outlook to 2020 and a long term outlook to 2040. I found their medium term outlook pessimistic in some cases to optimistic in others. But I found their long term outlook to be wildly optimistic… in most cases.

In all cases below I chart crude when it is available and “liquids” only when no other option is available. The data is in million barrels per day.

Here is their medium term outlook chart. Notice they expect both OPEC and Non-OPEC crude to decline in 2016 but Non-OPEC crude starts a slow recovery in 2017. They say OPEC crude will not start their recovery until 2019.

Here is their long term outlook. Notice the tremendous growth in “Other Liquids”, whatever that is.

OPEC expects Non-OPEC crude to be down in 2016 but to begin a slow recovery in 2017. I think that outlook is way too optimistic.

OPEC thinks their short term production has peaked and will decline by 100,000 barrels per day next year and hold on a flat plateau until sometime after 2010.

Adding OPEC and Non-OPEC crude we see that OPEC thinks World crude production will decline next year but begin a slow increase starting in 2017. Also notice that OPEC’s estimate of current crude production is well below what the EIA says is being produced and even below JODI’s production numbers. I think this is because OPEC does not count Condensate. Other than that I do not have an explanation.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

All Roads Lead To Peak Oil

December 21, 2015

All Roads Lead To Peak Oil

I follow the JODI World Oil Database primarily because it is now four months ahead of the EIA international data base. I make some adjustments however. I use the OPEC MOMR “secondary sources” for all OPEC data where JODI also uses the MOMR but uses their “direct communication” data instead. The OPEC portion of the JODI data is “crude only” and will therefore be somewhat less than the EIA reports.

I use the Canadian National Energy Base data for Canada instead of the strange numbers JODI has for Canada. And I use the EIA data for the few small producers that JODI does not report.

With these Changes I think I have composed an excellent World Oil Database from this composite data. And with the October data just released I have composed the below charts. The data is through October and is in thousand barrels per day.

World oil production peaked, so far, in July at 76,702,000 barrels per day and in October stood at 76,128,000 bpd or 574,000 bpd below the peak.

Non-OPEC peaked, so far, in December 2014 at 45,530,000 bpd and in October stood at 44,662,000, down 868,000 bpd or just under 2% in 10 months.

For the first time in 4 years Non-OPEC production has dropped below the level it was the same month the previous year. This means the 12 month trailing average has turned negative, though just barely.

Non-OPEC less the USA has been on a 12 year bumpy plateau. In fact it stood at 35,422,000 barrels per day in October, 214,000 bpd less than the level reached in December 2003.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

EIA Says Shale Continues to Decline

December 9, 2015

EIA Says Shale Continues to Decline

The EIA’s Drilling Productivity Report has US shale oil on a steep decline. The below shale oil production charts are the EIA’s estimate of what shale production will look like through January 2016. Keep in mind this is the EIA’s estimate and not hard production numbers.

The big drops here are Eagle Ford, Bakken and Niobrara. They have the Permian still increasing in production. An expected drop of 116,000 barrels per day drop in January is very significant.

They have the Bakken in a continual decline after July. It is important to note that the EIA’s Drilling Productivity Report has the Bakken decline, July thrugh September, very close to what the North Dakota Industrial Commission has. So it appears that the DPR is getting better with its production estimates.

Eagle Ford is where the action is, or isn’t, depending on your point of view. Dropping 77,000 barrels per day to start the New Year does not bode well for shale production in 2016.

Niobrara appears to have the steepest drop since the March peak. But actually they, if the DPR is correct, will be down 28.37% since March while Eagle Ford is down 29.81%, The Bakken will be down 10.35% while the Permian will be up 7.59%.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Oil Forecast From a Reputable Firm

December 7, 2015

Oil Forecast From a Reputable Firm

The below charts were derived from the data published by a very reputable oil and gas analyst and forecaster in Texas. Because the firm charges for their data forecast I am at not at liberty to disclose their name.

All data through 2014 is the actual price and production data. Data from 2015 through 2025 is forecast data. This data came out over a month ago so some of 2015 is forecast data.

All production data is in million barrels per day and is Crude + Condensate except the World forecast which includes NGLs. Notice also that all U.S. data dates from 2008 while all other data begins with 2013.

Oil price drops only slightly next year then rises in 2017 and 2018. Then it levels out for about 5 years before rising sharply in 2024 and 2025. My guess, and it is just my guess, is that the world begins to realize that oil production will never rise again.

This firm clearly has world oil production peaking in 2015 then dropping for five years before leveling out to up slightly for three years. Then resuming its decline in 2024 and 2025.

They have the US declining only slightly in the next two years then starting a slow climb until we peak in 2021 at a point just 40,000 barrels per day above the previous 2015 peak.

They have the Gulf of Mexico peaking in 2021 at 2.13 million bpd. The Permian peaks in 2020 at 1.9 million bpd. Eagle Ford peaks in 2019 abd 2020 at 1.51 million bpd and the Bakken peaks in 2021 abd 2020 at 1.36 million bpd.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

A Surprising Look at Oil Consumption

November 25, 2015

A Surprising Look at Oil Consumption

The EIA publishes oil consumption numbers for all major nations. However they have data for most nations only through 2013. They do have data for some nations through 2014. Nevertheless a lot can be gleaned from just looking at those consumption numbers. If oil consumption numbers are growing year after year, then there is a good chance that nation is growing economically. But if oil consumption numbers are continually declining year after year, then it is more than a little silly to say all is well, economically, with that nation. Or that is my opinion anyway.

First, who’s oil consumption is increasing year after year, or who’s economy is booming? All charts below are consumption as total liquids in thousand barrels per day. Some charts are through 2014 while others are through 2013. Whatever the last year is on the yearly axis is the last year for that data.

Important: All charts are consumption, not production.

No doubt the Middle East is booming. The reason, most of them are oil producers and oil, for most of this chart anyway, the price of oil was increasing. They had lots of income, their consumption was increasing every year as was their economies.

Saudi Arabia, by far the Middle East’s largest consumer, has increased consumption every year since 1995.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Case For Peak Oil

November 21, 2015

The Case For Peak Oil

All charts below were created with data from JODI, the EIA and OPEC MOMR. It is in thousand barrels per day and the last data point is September 2015.

World crude oil production has taken off during the last two years due primarily to US shale oil production and higher output from OPEC. However very high oil prices has enabled many other countries to increase drilling rigs and production.

Low oil prices are having an effect on Non-OPEC oil production though not nearly as much as a lot of people thought they would, and not nearly as soon either.

Five nations, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Russia, USA and Canada, have been responsible for way more than 100 percent of the increase in oil production in the last decade.

The world less the five nations charted above is down 5,000,000 barrels per day since 2005. This decline is despite the fact that oil prices, during much of that time, has been above $100 a barrel.

A look at the Non-OPEC segment of this group.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Bakken Big Decline in September

November 14, 2015

Bakken Big Decline in September

The NDIC has published their monthly update for Bakken Oil Productin and all North Dakota Oil Production.

Bakken production was down 24,424 barrels per day while all North Dakota was down 25,378 bpd.

Here is an amplified version of the last 15 months of North Dakota production. September 2015 production is now below September 2014 production so the 12 month average has now turned negative.

Even though producing rigs in North Dakota declined in September, barrels per day per well declined also from 94 to 92. Bakken bpd per well declined from 112 to 109.

This is a long term view of Bakken and North Dakota barrels per well.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

OPEC Crude Production Down in October

November 13, 2015

OPEC Crude Production Down in October

OPEC has published their OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report with crude only production numbers for October 2015. The charts are “Crude Only” production and are in thousand barrels per day.

OPEC 12 was down 256,000 bpd in October.

OPEC uses secondary sources such as Platts and other agencies to report their production numbers. I find these numbers far more useful than those reported by direct communication with the OPEC countries. Those numbers are political and usually highly inaccurate.

Algeria peaked in November 2007 – 2008 and has been in a steady decline since that point.

Angola has been holding steady since peaking in 2008 and 2010.

Ecuador appears to have peaked this year. It is likely production will be down, but only slightly, next year.

Iran appears to be poised to increase production when sanctions are lifted. But don’t expect too much very soon. After years of neglect, their infrastructure is in very bad shape.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Worldwide Rig Count Dropping Again

November 10, 2015

Worldwide Rig Count Dropping Again

Baker Hughes has published its International Rig Count with production numbers for October. This is a monthly rig count and breaks out the international rigs by oil, gas and miscellaneous. Baker Hughes does not include the Former Soviet Union countries in their count or totals. Baker Hughes also includes the US and Canada in their monthly count but they do not break US and Canada monthly totals out by oil and gas.

All rigs were down 85 rigs in October to 2,086 rigs. October 14 to October 15 total world rigs were down 1,571 rigs of 43%.

US total rigs were down 57 rigs in October to 791. October 14 to October 15 US rigs were down 1,134 rigs or 59%.

Canada was up one rig in October to 194. October 14 to October 15 Canada is down 240 rigs or 56.6%. For several years now Canadian rigs have peaked in February. This year it was different however.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

US Oil Production by State

October 31, 2015

US Oil Production by State

The EIA’s Petroleum Supply Monthly is just out with production numbers, through August, for each state and offshore territories. The EIA’s Monthly Energy Review is also out. This publication has US production data through September but not for individual states.

The Petroleum Supply Monthly June 15 production numbers were revised down considerably this month. And you can see they had a drop of 169,000 bpd in September. I think there will likely be an even larger drop in October. At any rate US production is finally starting to drop significantly.

The Gulf of Mexico is the one place that is bucking the trend. The GOM was up 146,000 bpd in July and up another 63,000 bpd in August for a total of 209,000 bpd for the two months.

Texas was down for the fifth straight month.

North Dakota has been moving sideways but is now below their September 2014 level.

Alaska is slightly above their August 2014 level but their average annual production will drop by between 25 and 50 thousand bpd this year.

Oklahoma has dropped 59,000 bpd since March.

New Mexico which holds part of the Permian recovered slightly in August.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Texas Oil and Gas Decline in August

October 22, 2015

Texas Oil and Gas Decline in August

The Texas RRC Oil and Gas Production Data with production data for August is out.

The RRC data is always incomplete but if this month’s incomplete data is less than last month’s incomplete data then that’s a pretty good indicator that production this month is down.

The EIA data here is only through July. They have Texas production peaking in March at 3,644,000 barrels per day and declining by 197,000 bpd to 3,447,000 bpd in July.

Dr. Dean Fantazzini has Texas peaking in March also, at a slightly lower point than the EIA but they both pretty much in agreement by July.

Texas crude only, when the final data comes in, will show the peak in March.

Dean’s algorithm still has crude only peaking in March but holding on a plateau since then.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

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