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The Market Isn’t The Economy: A Snapshot From The Depression
The Market Isn’t The Economy: A Snapshot From The Depression “We gathered on porches; the moon rose; we were poor. And time went by, drawn by slow horses. Somewhere beyond our windows shone the world. The Great Depression had entered our souls like fog.” – Pantoum of the Great Depression – Donald Justice. Wall Street insiders relish […]
Yes, Something Broke
Yes, Something Broke In this missive, we are just going to focus on the “WTF!” moment of this past week. In order to do this properly, I need to start with last week’s missive where we asked the question “Did Something Just Break?” In that article we addressed very specific concerns about interest rates and the problem they […]
Debts & Deficits: A Slow Motion Train Wreck
Debts & Deficits: A Slow Motion Train Wreck Last Friday, I discussed that without much fanfare or public discussion, Congress decided to push the U.S. into deeper fiscal irresponsibility with the passage of another Continuing Resolution (CR). To wit: “The House on Wednesday passed an $854 billion spending bill to avert an October shutdown, funding large swaths […]
Bubbles and Zombies
Bubbles and Zombies They say nobody rings a bell at the top of the market. But whether this is the top or not, two prominent market observers and historians, Robert Shiller and Edward Chancellor, are expressing concern. First, Shiller warns readers not to take big increases in earnings too seriously because earnings are volatile. Everyone […]
What Turkey Can Teach Us About Gold
What Turkey Can Teach Us About Gold If you were contemplating an investment at the beginning of 2014, which of the two assets graphed below would you prefer to own? Data Courtesy: Bloomberg In the traditional and logical way of thinking about investing, the asset that appreciates more is usually the preferred choice. However, the […]
The Weaponization of the Dollar
The Weaponization of the Dollar The Uncivil Civil War discussed the sanguine approach many investors take towards equity risk despite clear signs of domestic political turbulence. The article put the upcoming elections and the growing political divisions amongst the populace into context with market risks. While we read plenty of politically related articles and many […]
Boiling A Turkey
Boiling A Turkey There is an age old fable describing a frog being slowly boiled alive. The premise is that if a frog is put suddenly into boiling water, it will try and save itself. However, if the frog is put in tepid water which is then brought to a boil slowly, it will not perceive […]
Kass: Tops Are Processes & We May Be In That Process
Kass: Tops Are Processes & We May Be In That Process The Yield Curve Will Likely Invert by November, 2018 Economic growth is less synchronized than the consensus believes On a trending and rate of change basis the economic data is slowing down The Fed’s continued pivot to tighter money will likely lead to curve […]
Quick Take: The Risk Of Algos
Quick Take: The Risk Of Algos “Mike ‘Wags’ Wagner: ‘You studied the Flash Crash of 2010 and you know that Quant is another word for wild f***ing guess with math.’ Taylor Mason: ‘Quant is another word for systemized ordered thinking represented in an algorithmic approach to trading.’ Mike ‘Wags’ Wagner: ‘Just remember Billy Beane never won a […]
The Next Crisis Will Be The Last
The Next Crisis Will Be The Last It is an interesting thing. Throughout the last four decades there is a direct link between the actions of the Federal Reserve and the eventual economic and market outcomes due to changes in monetary policy. In every case, that outcome has been negative. The general consensus continues to […]
The Mind Blowing Concept of “Risk-Free’ier”
The Mind Blowing Concept of “Risk-Free’ier” The Earth is flat Cigarettes are healthy Leeches are the cure for everything The universe revolves around the Earth California is an island Red wine is healthy, unhealthy, healthy… Facts are essential as they offer humans a sense of stability in a chaotic world. For instance, we find comfort […]
Uneven Economy & The Hidden Depression
Uneven Economy & The Hidden Depression Are we in a depression? The question seems absurd. There has been GDP growth since 2009 and some mild inflation to go with it. In fact, this is the second longest economic expansion on record. As Robert Shiller said over the weekend (though in the context of warning against […]
“GDP Growth Driving Rates Higher!” – Is That True?
“GDP Growth Driving Rates Higher!” – Is That True? “Peter Cook is the author of the‘Is That True?’ series of articles, which help explain the many statements and theories circulating in the mainstream financial media often presented as “truths.” The motives and psychology of market participants, which drives the difference between truth and partial-truth, are […]
Peak Hubris
Peak Hubris In the past month, two well-known and highly respected money managers have made confident assertions about the markets. Their comments would lead one to believe that the future path of the market in the coming months is known. Sadly, many investors put blind faith in the words of high-profile, accomplished professionals and do […]
Technically Speaking: This Is Nuts
Technically Speaking: This Is Nuts Since the election, markets have accelerated the pace of the advance as shown in the chart below. The advance has had two main story lines to support the bullish narrative. It’s an earnings recovery story, and; It’s all about tax cuts. There is much to debate about the earnings recovery […]
