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Recent queues at petrol stations across the UK point to significant issues with fuel supply chains in the wake of Brexit. But a lack of fuel where it is needed has been causing problems in the UK for years.Before the pandemic, an estimated 13.4% of households – that’s 3.18 million people – lived in fuel poverty in England. According to research by fuel poverty charity National Energy Action, insufficiently heated homes kill nearly 10,000 people every year in the UK.

Now, we’re also facing the problem of sharp rises in gas prices. This hits especially hard in countries such as the UK, where gas is the major fuel used to heat households.

These problems reflect the ongoing “energy trilemma”: how to provide households and businesses with stable, low-carbon and affordable energy. By itself, nationalising energy systems wouldn’t solve all these problems.

Increasing public ownership of energy systems is one, more reasonable option. The growing threat of climate change, outside influences such as Brexit, and market pressures driving price increases would still exist. But publicly owned systems do have key advantages over their private counterparts.

Evidence suggests public ownership of gas and electricity grids alone would deliver huge savings to UK consumers compared with the current system. Instead of paying out rewards to private company shareholders, publicly owned and controlled transmission systems would ensure any financial surplus is either reinvested to improve the service or used to reduce energy prices.

Electricity pylons at sunset

The UK’s energy system is largely privatised. AshrafChemban/Pixabay

Private UK grid companies make good money supplying our energy needs. National Grid shareholders earned £1.4bn from the company’s profits in both 2020 and 2021 and a record £3.2bn in 2017, thanks to the National Grid’s decision to sell stakes in its grid to new private owners.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

A problem shared is a problem doubled

September 11, 2021

A problem shared is a problem doubled

At seven minutes to five on the afternoon of 9 August 2019, a lightening strike caused the loss of 150MW of distributed power (i.e., a large number of small wind, diesel and solar generators) from the National Grid. This sudden loss triggered the safety system on the giant Hornsea wind farm in the North Sea, taking another 799MW of power from the system. Fortunately, regulations at the time required that the Grid operator keep 1GW of back up capacity for precisely this kind of emergency. And so standby turbines at the Little Barford gas power station were started. However, the system failed, taking 244MW of Little Barford’s power offline too. This loss of power tripped a further 350MW of distributed generation bringing the total loss of power to 1,481MW. Within the next minute, 900MW of National Grid’s 1GW of backup capacity was brought online, stabilising the frequency at 49.2Hz. Seconds later, however, the gas turbine at Little Barford failed; bringing the loss of power to 1,691MW. At this point, National Grid had consumed all of its 1GW backup capacity and had no resource to cope with further power losses or frequency fluctuations. Then, half a minute later (16:53:50) the frequency fell to 48.8Hz; triggering the Low Frequency Demand Disconnection scheme and automatically disconnecting 1.1 million business and household consumers. In response, and for yet to be discovered reasons, (16:53:58) a third turbine at Little Barford went offline bringing the total loss of power to 1,878MW – nearly double Ofgem’s stipulated backup capacity.

Network Rail was among the large industrial users in the Low Frequency Demand Disconnection scheme, so that at the peak of the Friday evening rush hour, a large part of the UK’s rail network was brought to a halt…

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Electrical Grid Is Becoming Increasingly Vulnerable To Catastrophic Failure

September 3, 2021

The Electrical Grid Is Becoming Increasingly Vulnerable To Catastrophic Failure

Future electricity systems must be made more resilient

Prolonged blackouts in Louisiana following Hurricane Ida are a reminder the power grid needs to become more resilient as well as reliable if even more services such as electric vehicles are going to depend on it in future.

The electricity system is already directly responsible for providing a wide range of energy services in homes, offices and factories, including space heating, air-conditioning, cooking, refrigeration and power. The grid is also at the heart of a collection of other critical systems, including oil and gas supply, water and sewerage, transport, communications, public safety and healthcare, which cannot function properly without it.

In future, the grid is likely to be responsible for the provision of even more energy services as policymakers push to electrify many remaining services as part of the strategy for achieving net zero emissions.

But in the rush to electrify the entire energy system, policymakers may be inadvertently increasing the vulnerability of the economy and society in the event of a large-area, long-duration power failure.

Rather than several closely connected but separate systems for electricity, gas, oil, and transport, in future there will increasingly be only one very tightly integrated system, increasing its vulnerability to catastrophic failure.

The risk created by linking formerly separate systems into a central system prone to a single point of failure has been understood for decades (“Brittle power: energy strategy for national security“, Lovins, 1982). In particular, the more tightly coupled systems become, the greater the risk an unanticipated problem in one part could cascade through the whole (“Normal accidents: living with high-risk technologies“, Perrow, 1999).

At present, blackouts render some services unavailable (lighting, power), but households and businesses may be able to use others (gas heating, gasoline vehicles). In future, blackouts could disrupt substantially all energy services.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Hurricane Ida Exposes Grid Weaknesses As 2,000 Miles of High-Voltage Lines Damaged

August 31, 2021

Hurricane Ida Exposes Grid Weaknesses As 2,000 Miles of High-Voltage Lines Damaged

More than a million customers across Louisiana are without power on Tuesday morning. Some reports indicate it could take weeks for the lights to come back on as thousands of miles of transmission lines were damaged after Hurricane Ida rolled through on Sunday.

The Category 4 hurricane raises fresh questions about how well New Orleans and other coastal areas across Lousiana are prepared for natural disasters. As of 0630 ET, PowerOutage.US reports a little more than one million customers are without power across the state’s coastal plain.

Energy provider Entergy Corp has been surveying the damage since Monday and has found 207 transmission lines spanning more than 2,000 miles have been knocked out by the storm, according to WSJ.

Rod West, Entergy’s group president of utility operations, said drones, helicopters, and land-based vehicles are surveying the damage and estimate it could take at least three weeks to restore power.

“The hard part is that the geography is a rather wide swath,” West said. “That three weeks is not going to apply to everybody the same way.” He added some transmission towers need to be replaced entirely due to “significant wind” damage.

West said the damage to the transmission system is more severe than Hurricane Katrina because Ida made landfall at 150 mph.

Besides transmission lines, some of Entergy’s powerplants have sustained damage. West said the damage at some plants would not hinder energy production. One of their nuclear power plants 25 miles west of New Orleans on the Mississippi River was shuttered ahead of the storm.

West said they’d rebuilt their transmission system over the years to withstand speeds of 150 miles an hour. Still, it appears some of those high-voltage cables that carry electricity from power plants to substations that connect to lower-voltage distribution lines, were no match for Ida.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Germany Schnitzels Itself After Ditching Nuclear, Coal Power For Green Pipe Dreams

August 24, 2021

Germany Schnitzels Itself After Ditching Nuclear, Coal Power For Green Pipe Dreams

As Germans continue to ‘enjoy’ the highest power bills in Europe, critics are warning that green energy solutions aren’t being deployed quickly enough amid the closure of its last nuclear reactor, and a sharp (and possibly early) reduction in coal electricity generation – putting the country’s ability to meet peak demand over the next two years in jeopardy.

This, as German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s party slumping to an all-time low in popularity.

“There is no doubt that security of supply must be high on the priority list of the next government and political action is urgent,” said RWE energy’s chief economist, Alexander Nolden. “The new climate law is a real game changer for Germany. It means a much higher ambition and will demand much higher speed for the changes needed.”

Merkel admits her government got it wrong. Power demand will probably increase more than official forecasts by the end of the decade, she said in June. A month earlier she recognized that increasing local opposition and too much bureaucracy have curbed investments in green power.

For a long time, Germany showed the world how renewable energy could be added to make up a substantial share of the power mix. Now, the Norwegian utility Statkraft SF says it takes twice as long to build a wind park in Germany compared with the U.S. Complaints from locals, a lack of space, stricter environmental standards and a longer permitting process are just some of the reasons growth is slowing. -Bloomberg

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

California Utility Cutting Power to 51,000 Customers Amid Dangerous Wildfire Conditions

August 18, 2021

In this image from a U.S. Forest Service wildfire monitoring camera, plumes of smoke rise from the Caldor Fire in El Dorado County, Calif., on Aug. 17, 2021. (U.S. Forest Service/ALERTWildfire Network via AP)

California Utility Cutting Power to 51,000 Customers Amid Dangerous Wildfire Conditions

The nation’s largest utility announced on Tuesday evening that it has begun shutting off power to some 51,000 customers as a large wildfire, fueled by winds, raged through a small Northern California forest town.

Pacific Gas & Electric (PG&E) in a press release said it made the decision to prevent winds from knocking down or fouling power lines and sparking new blazes, citing “dry offshore winds, extreme to exceptional drought conditions and extremely dry vegetation.”

Power will be shut off in small portions of 18 northern California counties, including the Sierra Nevada foothills, the North Coast, the North Valley and the North Bay mountains, the company said.

“With these high winds and extremely dry climate conditions, we are focused on customer and community safety. It’s never an easy decision to turn off the power for safety, but it is the right thing to do to keep everyone safe,” PG&E Executive Vice President and Chief Customer Officer Marlene Santos said in a statement.

The release notes that the company expects “all clears” will occur around Wednesday afternoon.

“We understand how disruptive and inconvenient it is to lose power. The sole focus of a PSPS [Public Safety Power Shutoff] is to keep our customers safe. As soon as this extreme weather passes, our crews will be inspecting our equipment and the vegetation around it, making repairs and restoring power as soon as it’s safe to do so,” Santos added.

California Gov. Gavin Newsom has proclaimed a state of emergency for El Dorado County because of the Caldor fire, which tripled in size between Monday and Tuesday afternoon to nearly 50 square miles (129 square kilometers).

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

California Grid Strained As Power Shortfalls Loom

July 10, 2021

California Grid Strained As Power Shortfalls Loom

Amid another heat wave across the Western half of the US, California issued a stage-2 power-grid emergency alert Friday and urged customers to conserve power as temperatures surpassed 100 degrees, according to The Sacramento Bee.

The state’s grid operator, California Independent System Operator (ISO), issued the alert on Friday, which is one step away from rolling blackouts.

Readers may recall, as early as Tuesday, we outlined how “scorching temperatures return to the West, persisting through mid-week, and reappear this weekend.” By Friday, we gave the full breakdown of the second heat wave and its impact for the next several days, affecting upwards of 28 million people from California to Washington State.

Excessive heat warnings have already been posted for California, Nevada, western Arizona, and western Utah. Watches have also been posted for interior portions of Oregon and southern Idaho.

By late Friday, ISO discontinued the emergency, but with multiple 100-degree-plus days forecasted for Saturday and Sunday for Californians, the power grid operator may have to reissue grid alerts.

Large swaths of the West could experience temperatures 20 or more degrees above average. Below is a temperature anomalies forecast showing the heat dome could last through mid-next week

For those who are curious what “stage 2” means, power consumption is exceptionally high in the state, and the grid has become “reserve deficient,” allowing grid operators to resupply the grid with generators. If supply doesn’t meet demand, the next stage would be rolling blackouts to prevent the grid from collapse. The alert was the first in 2021 and was last declared in August 2020.

Making matters worse is a wildfire raging in southern Oregon and may threaten transmission lines bringing power into California.

The wildfire prompted California Gov. Gavin Newsom to issue an emergency proclamation to free up additional energy supplies.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

California Begs For More Electricity As Shift To Renewable Power Leaves State In The Dark

July 6, 2021

California Begs For More Electricity As Shift To Renewable Power Leaves State In The Dark

Microprocessor Fab Plants need electricity 24 x 7

July 5, 2021

Microprocessor Fab Plants need electricity 24 x 7

Preface. I explain in both of my books, When Trucks Stop Running and Life After Fossil Fuels why heavy duty transportation and most manufacturing can’t be electrified, as well as why the electric grid can’t stay up without natural gas to balance intermittency and provide baseload and long-term power for the weeks when neither solar or wind are around. Utility scale energy storage batteries aren’t going to happen, nor Concentrated Solar Power, Pumped hydro energy storage, or Compressed Air Energy Storage.

Computer chip fabrication plants need to run continuously for weeks to accomplish the thousands of steps needed to make microchips. A half-hour power outage at Samsung’s Pyeongtaek chip plant caused losses of over $43 million dollars (Reuters 2019). Intermittent power will kill microprocessors.

Here are just a few devices that have microprocessors: televisions, VCRs, DVD players, microwaves, toasters, ovens, stoves, clothes washers, stereo systems, computers, hand-held game devices, thermostats, video game systems, alarm clocks, bread machines, dishwashers, central heating systems, washing machines, burglar alarm system, remote control TV, electric kettles, home lighting systems, refrigerators with digital temperature control, cars, boats, planes, trucks, heavy machinery, gasoline pumps, credit card processing units, traffic control devices, elevators, computer servers, most high tech medical devices, digital kiosks, security systems, surveillance systems, doors with automatic entry, thermal imaging equipment.

This is unfortunate for the Preservation of Knowledge, since so many books and journals are online only.

***

The US Energy Department recently reported that “the nation’s aging electric grid cannot keep pace with innovations in the digital information and telecommunications network … Power outages and power quality disturbances cost the economy billions of dollars annually” (DOE). Val Jensen, a vice president at ComEd, says the current grid is “relatively dumb…the power put into the grid at the plant flows according to the law of physics through all of the wires.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Triple-Digit Heat Dome Bakes Pacific Northwest, Triggers First Blackout

June 29, 2021

Triple-Digit Heat Dome Bakes Pacific Northwest, Triggers First Blackout

The Pacific Northwest is experiencing a multi-day heat wave that we said last week would be “historic.” The unrelenting triple-digit temperatures shattered records across the region and have stressed out power grids where rolling blackouts have been reported.

Bloomberg reports Avista Corporation, which supplies electricity to 340,000 residential, commercial, and industrial customers, triggered its first rolling blackout across its grid after it became overloaded Monday evening. Rotating outages first hit 9,300 customers late Monday and could expand as temperatures remain well above average through July 4.

Avista was the first major utility to report rolling blackouts in the Northwest region, and with positive temperature anomalies to linger through the week, it may not be the last.

Avista has never “experienced this kind of demand on our system and this kind of impact to our system,” Heather Rosentrater, senior vice president of energy delivery at the utility company, told reporters during a press conference Monday. She called the weather event “very unprecedented.”

As we noted last Friday, “a “historic” heat wave was set to transform the Pacific Northwest into a furnace this weekend. It has the potential to shatter long-standing temperature records.” And that is precisely what it did.

Major metros, such as Portland and Seattle, broke record highs by huge margins as positive temperature anomalies reached between 30 to 40 degrees.

Portland hit 116 degrees by Monday afternoon, the highest temperature in more than eight decades of record-keeping. It was the third day of triple-digit temps.

Seattle recorded 108 degrees Monday afternoon, easily surpassing its previous 103-degree record from 2009. Positive temperature anomalies for the city yesterday were 34 degrees, usually temps average around 74 degrees.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Blackouts Loom in California as Electricity Prices Are ‘Absolutely Exploding’

June 27, 2021

Blackouts Loom in California as Electricity Prices Are ‘Absolutely Exploding’

Two inexorable energy trends are underway in California: soaring electricity prices and ever-worsening reliability – and both trends bode ill for the state’s low- and middle-income consumers.

Last week, the state’s grid operator, the California Independent System Operator, issued a “flex alert” that asked the state’s consumers to reduce their power use “to reduce stress on the grid and avoid power outages.” CAISO’s warning of impending electricity shortages heralds another blackout-riddled summer at the same time California’s electricity prices are skyrocketing.

In 2020, California’s electricity prices jumped by 7.5%, making it the biggest price increase of any state in the country last year and nearly seven times the increase that was seen in the United States as a whole. According to data from the Energy Information Administration, the all-sector price of electricity in California last year jumped to 18.15 cents per kilowatt-hour, which means that Californians are now paying about 70% more for their electricity than the U.S. average all-sector rate of 10.66 cents per kWh. Even more worrisome: California’s electricity rates are expected to soar over the next decade. (More on that in a moment.)

The surging cost of electricity will increase the energy burden being borne by low- and middle-income Californians. High energy costs have a particularly regressive effect in California, which has the highest poverty rate – and some of the highest electricity prices – in the country. In 2020, California’s all-sector electricity prices were the third-highest in the continental U.S., behind only Rhode Island (18.55 cents per kWh) and Connecticut (19.19 cents per kWh.)

Before going further, let me state the obvious: California policymakers are providing a case study in how not to manage an electric grid…

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Electric grid operator asks Texans to stop blasting AC as unplanned outages and heat collide

June 18, 2021

Electric grid operator asks Texans to stop blasting AC as unplanned outages and heat collide

The electric power grid manager for most of Texas has issued its first conservation alert of the summer, calling on users to dial back energy consumption to avert an emergency. (AP Photo/David J. Phillip)

(CNN)The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), the organization that operates much of the Lone Star State’s electric grid, asked residents for a second day in a row Tuesday to conserve as much energy as possible until Friday.

The strain on the grid stems from record-high demand for electricity amid increasing summer heat and a higher than usual number of forced outages at power plants, the organization said.

“When ERCOT issued a call for conservation on Monday, Texans responded strongly by reducing electric demand during the late afternoon. ERCOT continues to encourage Texans to conserve power each afternoon during the peak hours of 3 to 7 p.m. through this Friday,” a news release by ERCOT read.

“ERCOT has been leveraging every resource at its disposal, including activating all available generating units to help serve customer demand before calling for conservation. Approximately 1,200 MW of power was regained overnight Monday when some repairs were completed. One MW typically powers around 200 homes on a summer day.”

ERCOT said Monday that energy generator owners have reported about 11,000 MegaWatts of generation are on forced outage for repairs, including about 8,000 MW of thermal energy. That’s significantly higher than on a typical hot summer day, when the range of thermal generation outages is about 3,600 MW, the organization said.

“We will be conducting a thorough analysis with generation owners to determine why so many units are out of service,” said ERCOT Vice President of Grid Planning and Operations Woody Rickerson. “This is unusual for this early in the summer season.”

Wind output was also expected to be lower than usual on Mounday, but the output was expected to increase as the week moved on, ERCOT said.

While the system’s energy capacity is lower, ERCOT customers have simultaneously been using record amounts of energy to cool their homes. According to the release, ERCOT has set a new June record for electricity demand.

“Based on preliminary data, the new record is 69,943 MW, which exceeds the 2018 June record by approximately 820 MW,” the release said. “Power plant owners continue repairs of unexpected equipment failures, and ERCOT is using all the tools in its toolbox to maintain reliability in the face of potential record-setting electricity demand.”

The National Weather Service of Fort Worth warned of a hot day Tuesday with temperatures forecast to be in the mid to upper 90s. The heat wave is expected to last through Friday.

ERCOT said last month that it anticipated record-breaking electric demand this summer due to hot and dry conditions and economic and population growth in the region. That trend is likely to continue in future years as human-caused climate change drives more extreme heat waves in Texas. A 2020 report from the Texas state climatologist concluded

PG&E Warns Of More Blackouts As California Wildfire Season Begins

June 12, 2021

PG&E Warns Of More Blackouts As California Wildfire Season Begins

It has been an arid spring in California, and that’s causing alarm with Pacific Gas and Electric Co. executives who have said this week they will need more frequent power cuts to customers in Northern California to prevent wildfires.

PG&E’s chief risk officer Sumeet Singh told WSJ that California’s dry weather conditions could result in more rolling blackouts this year than last year. The company has trimmed trees away from powerlines and inspected the grid as the wildfire season began earlier this month.

June is typically the month the wildfire season in California begins. The state is already battling an extreme drought, and the first heat wave of the season hit last week. The risks of another heat wave are increasing for next week.

The hottest and most fire-prone months are nearing as a second heat wave of the season could arrive as early as next week.

How the season turns out may depend on the immediate climate in the state. Extreme heat and drought are several factors that may produce dry fuels and eventually spark fires.

“The fuel moisture levels … are about a month or two months ahead of schedule,” Strenfel told Sacramento Bee. “They’re at a state where they’re typically this dry in mid-July, and we’re seeing them in June. We’re a month ahead of schedule, if not two months, in terms of fire danger.”

Singh told WSJ, “the big, big variable that’s unpredictable here is the wind. But in all the forecasts that we’ve done, we do not see ourselves getting back to the same kind of [power shut-off] events like we saw in 2019.”

Already, Gov. Gavin Newsom declared 41 of the state’s 58 counties are in a drought, with much of the state in an “extreme drought” and portions in an “exceptional drought.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Pentagon report: collapse within 20 years from climate change

May 25, 2021

Pentagon report: collapse within 20 years from climate change

Preface. The report that the article by Ahmed below is based on is: Brosig, M., et al. 2019. Implications of climate change for the U.S. Army. United States Army War College.

It was written in 2019, before covid-19 and so quite prescient: The two most prominent risks are a collapse of the power grid and the danger of disease epidemics.

It is basically a long argument to increase the military so it can help cope with epidemics, water and food shortages, electric grid outages, flooding, and protect the (oil and gas) resources in the arctic.

Since I see energy decline as a far more immediate threat than climate change, and the military knows this, it is odd so little is written about energy in this report. But then I looked at the pages about the arctic, and though the word oil doesn’t appear, you can see that the military is very aware of the resources (oil) there and the chance of war with Russia. Therefore they propose that the military patrol this vast area with ships, aircraft, and new vehicles that can traverse the bogs and marshes of melted permafrost. They propose sending more soldiers to the arctic for training, satellites for navigation, to develop new ways of fighting, enhance batteries and other equipment to be able function in the cold arctic environment, and more.

***

Ahmed, N. 2019. U.S. Military Could Collapse Within 20 Years Due to Climate Change, Report Commissioned By Pentagon Says. vice.com

According to a new U.S. Army report, Americans could face a horrifically grim future from climate change involving blackouts, disease, thirst, starvation and war. The study found that the US military itself might also collapse. This could all happen over the next two decades.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Why every state is vulnerable to a Texas-style power crisis

March 12, 2021

Why every state is vulnerable to a Texas-style power crisis

“The infrastructure we have built right now really isn’t ready.”

Workers repair a power line in Austin, Texas, on February 18, 2021. — Power outages in Texas after Winter Storm Uri left millions in the dark. Such outages are a growing threat throughout the country.

The blackouts that gripped parts of Texas for days as temperatures dipped to record lows last month were stunning for a state that prides itself on its diverse and abundant energy supplies. Texas is the country’s largest oil producer, largest lignite coal producer, largest natural gas producer, and largest wind energy producer.

Yet despite its bountiful resources, every electricity source — natural gas, coal, nuclear, wind, solar — fell short just as Texans needed to warm up the most.

Now that Texas has thawed out after an icy freeze left more than 4 million people in the cold and dark, heads are rolling.

This week, Texas Public Utility Commissioner Shelly Botkin resigned, leaving just one commissioner of the three-member group remaining. This follows a wave of resignations at the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), the group that oversees the state’s power grid.

It’s not yet clear how many Texans died amid the cold, but several people died after they lost power, including an 11-year-old boy. Others died from carbon monoxide poisoning as they burned fuel indoors or ran their cars in desperate attempts to stay warm. Millions lost drinking water for days.

The blackouts cost the state economy upward of $130 billion in damages and losses, and some people who did have power saw their bills spike by thousands of dollars. Grid operators say that the situation could actually have been a lot worse, with the system minutes away from a months-long blackout.

Texas politicians have not earned much sympathy from the ordeal. Texas Sen. Ted Cruz derided California’s “failed energy policies” when the Golden State suffered blackouts last year. Gov. Greg Abbott went on television to erroneously link the power outages to the Green New Deal. Other Texas politicos blamed iced-up wind turbines for the electricity shortfall when the majority of the power losses were from natural gas.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

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