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All data below is from various sources. All US data is from the EIA. Unless otherwise noted is in thousand barrels per day.

US C+C production through April, 2018. For the last 8 months, the average increase in US production has been 168,000 bpd. Most of this has come from the Permian.

This chart is through February, 2018. US net imports peaked in 2006 and have dropped about 9.5 million barrels per day since then.

Alaska through March, 2018. Alaska’s decline has definitely slowed.

GOM through March. The resurgence in GOM production seems to have petered out about a year and a half ago and is now holding at about 1.7 million barrels per day.

North Dakota through March. Has shale production peaked in North Dakota? It does appear that they are having trouble increasing production in the last six months.

Texas through March, All that increase in US production has come from Texas, primarily from the Permian. For how long and for how much will this increase continue? I have no idea but guesses will be welcome in the comments below.

This data is from the Canadian National Energy Board and is through December, 2018. They say all data from September 2017 through December 2018 is an estimate. They are expecting production to bottom out in May 2018 and then increase for the remainder of the year.

This data is from the Russian Minister of Energy and is through May, 2018. Russian production has been almost flat for the last three months. Data from the Russian Minister of Energy averages about 400,000 barrels per day higher than the EIA’s estimate.

China through February, 2018. China is clearly in decline though the decline seems to have slowed.

Mexico through February, 2018. Mexico is in a slow decline though the decline has slowed in the last few months.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

US Light Tight Oil (LTO) Update

May 22, 2018

US Light Tight Oil (LTO) Update

I have updated my scenarios for US LTO output, based on both EIA tight oil output data and average well profile data from Enno Peters’ shaleprofile.com. I have also created a scenario for the Niobrara shale oil play and for “other US LTO” which excludes the Permian Basin LTO, Eagle Ford, North Dakota Bakken/Three Forks, and the Niobrara.

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Niobrara play

The recent Niobrara wells have an estimated ultimate recovery (EUR) of 143 kb. The oil price scenario below is used for all of the scenarios.

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Well cost is assumed to be $4.5 million in 2017$. The scenario below assumes EUR starts to decrease in Jan 2019 as sweet spots become fully drilled. Economically recoverable resources (ERR) to 2040 are 2.7 Gb with 21,000 total oil wells completed, peak output is 623 kb/d in early 2021. Fewer wells are completed relative to the North Dakota Bakken and Permian basin because the wells are less profitable.

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Other US lto

For US other LTO, much of the output is from condensate from gas wells so the analysis is more approximate and a discounted cash flow analysis is beyond the scope of this post, the “average well” produces only about 38 kb over its life, but in many cases the output of natural gas makes the well profitable, there are some areas where shaleprofile.com does not have data such as the Anadarko basin, so I have simply taken the average well profile for areas covered (excluding ND Bakken, Eagle Ford, Permian and Niobrara) and then found the number of these “average wells” that fit US other LTO output data from the EIA(including Anadarko). The true average well profile for all areas including Anadarko is unknown.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

OPEC April Production Data

May 14, 2018

OPEC April Production Data

The OPEC charts below were created with data from the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report. The PDF File can be downloaded from here: OPEC MOMR All OPEC data is through April 2018 and is in thousand barrels per day.

There was little change in OPEC production in April.

OPEC production was up 12,000 barrels per day in April but that was after February production had been revised down by 74,000 bpd and March production revised down by 39,000 bpd.

I am going to forgo commenting on each country unless there is something dramatic happening.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Norway Production, 2017 Summary and Projections

April 27, 2018

Norway Production, 2017 Summary and Projections

Average annual Norwegian wellhead C&C production dropped 1.5% in 2017, from 1709 kbpd (625 mmbbls total) to 1682 kbpd (614 mmbbls total). Wellhead gas (which includes fuel gas, flaring and gas injection) rose 2.6% from 2805 kboed to 2878 kboed. Exit rates were down 9% for oil andt 4% for gas, some of which was due to the Forties pipeline failure in December, but the decline appears to have continued in the first quarter of 2018.

Three small projects, Flyndre, Sindre and Birding, and two larger ones Gina Krog and Maria, came online. Sindre appears already to be exhausted. Flyndre is shared with UK and is declining fast. Gina Krog, discovered in 1974, is a tie back via a wellhead platform to Sleipner with nominal nameplate capacity of 60 kboed (split about evenly between oil and gas), and Maria is an oil tie-back to the Kristin semi-sub, but with water injection supplied from Heidrun, with 40 kbpd nameplate and is still ramping up after first production in Decemeber.

Norway C&C

The data shown in the charts is through February, but the NPD figures for this year have not been as complete or unequivocal as usual, so should be considered accordingly. A number of fields have no reported wellhead figures for January or February, though they do have sales reported (to fill the gaps I have prorated from these numbers based on previous complete monthly data). Additionally it looks for some reason that the sales figures for 2017 have all been doubled and the numbers for NGL are being switched from reporting in Te/d to m3/d, so there’s a bit of uncertainty.

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Troll

Troll, started in 1990, is by far the largest gas producer but also, currently, the largest oil producer, at around 150 kbpd, which has been kept steady for several years. The oil comes from a thin oil rim, produced from long, horizontal wells that are being continually drilled.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

OPEC March Crude Oil Production Data

April 15, 2018

OPEC March Crude Oil Production Data

All OPEC data below was taken from the April issue of The OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report. The data is through March 2018 and is thousands of barrels per day.

OPEC crude oil production dropped just over 200,000 barrels per day in March. They are now just over one million barrels per day below their fourth-quarter 2016 average.

Only the UAE showed any significant gain among OPEC members.

Algeria took a hit in March, down almost 50,000 barrels per day. They reached a new low of under 1,000,000 barrels per day.

Angola took the biggest his of all OPEC nations in March. They dropped 82,000 barrels per day to reach their lowest level in almost 7 years.

Ecuador has slowed their decline during the last two months.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

OPEC February Production Data

March 15, 2018

OPEC February Production Data

The March OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report is out with the February production data. All data is through February 2o18 and is in thousand barrels per day,

OPEC crude only production was down 77,000 barrels per day in February but that was after January production had been revised downward 40,000 barrels per day.

It seems most OPEC countries want to say they are producing less than what “secondary sources” say they are producing. Either they are correct or they are cheating on their quota.

Not much happening in Algeria. They just continue their slow decline.

Angola seems to be holding steady.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Estimating Texas Production-Bridging the Gap

March 9, 2018

ESTIMATING TEXAS PRODUCTION-BRIDGING THE GAP

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(Details for the chart above are explained in the post.)

The Texas Railroad Commission (RRC) had the oil and gas production reported online in early 2005, and became fully online for producers and the public on Feb 14, 2005. At the time it was set up, it required the producers to input their production in the production file for existing approved leases, and in the pending lease data file for those leases which have not yet received an approved lease number by the RRC. Each month, the RRC only reports the oil and condensate that is currently updated that month which is in the production file.

Historically, the production did not seem to be completely reported. The lag time to near full reporting of RRC production went from almost 18 months, down to about nine months within the past two years. Even at nine months it leaves interested parties trying to find some way to estimate what current Texas oil production is.

EIA, of course, has been one of those interested parties. RRC, also, attempted to provide an estimate of current production from the initial report of the production file. The two entities were not close, at times, and left many calling RRC to find out why there was a discrepancy. Eventually, RRC stopped reporting an estimate, leaving EIA to be the primary estimator for Texas production in the month it is reported. EIA has improved its method, which is described on their website. Basically, it involves using drillinginfo.com current estimates compared to production reports sent in by the majority of the producers. That is simplified, as it is a massive effort to estimate Texas production for the current reporting month.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Brazil and Mexico, 2017 Summaries

March 2, 2018

Brazil and Mexico, 2017 Summaries

Brazil had a fairly uneventful 2017 for C&C production. Overall production was up 4.5% at 957 mmbbls (114 kbpd average), but the December exit rate was down 4.5%, or 124 kbpd, at 2612 kbpd. There were only two new platforms with significant ramp-ups, and one of those went off line for a couple of months late in the year. The Libra (now Mero) extended test FPSO came on line in November but had achieved only 11 kbpd.

Pre-salt production exceeded 50% for the first time. It was 1356 kbpd, or 52%, in December compared to 1262, or 46%, for December 2016. There were 85 pre-salt wells up from 68, but average production for each had fallen from 19 kbpd to 16, which is as expected as they were drilled mostly on producing platforms.

Petrobras owned 94% of December production, with Statoil at 2.4% (63 kbpd) and Shell, from their BG purchase at 2.1% (57 kbpd); for 2016 the numbers were 94%, 2.1% and 2.0%.

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(Note that December water data wasn’t available at the time of writing so the water cut values have been assumed to be the same as November for the chart.)

Santos platforms increased overall, but some of the older ones may be showing signs of coming off plateau. Campos platforms declined and the rate may be increasing as the water cut growth is accelerating.

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This year will be a bit different as over 1 mmbpd of nameplate capacity is due to come on line, but it will be interesting to see how efficiently that amount of work is handled, and how far the ramp-up times might be limited by drill rig availability. If they add only another 20 odd wells then there is likely to be less than 400 kbpd new production. In addition reserve numbers for 2017 will come out in early April and the estimated Mero numbers will be important.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

EIA USA Reserve Estimates

February 21, 2018

EIA USA Reserve Estimates

EIA reserve estimates for USA for 2016 have been issued (a couple of months later than usual). The numbers they provide are ‘proven’ reserves of crude, condensate and natural gas.

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The data is provided directly by the E&Ps with some adjustments made by EIA for missing numbers. The data show reserves for the end of a given year, plus the reasons for change over the year: basically discoveries, production, revisions and sales. Until 2015 EIA had different categories for discovery (essentially a new reservoir, although there may be new pockets in existing freservoir) and extension (an increase in the area of an existing field). Recently most of this category has been extensions to LTO fields (i.e. an increase in the expected economic drainage area of a play). This year the reporting has changed so all discoveries and extensions are reported as a single figure and I’ve shown only this sum for previous years too. I have summed revision gains and losses plus adjustments to give a net number, and similarly for sales and acquisitions.

This year the data include non-producing reserves. I don’t know for sure if this is new but I haven’t noticed it before and can’t find any history for previous years. ‘Non-producing’ may mean reserves behind wells that are offline (e.g. are uncompleted, for maintenance or because of lack of processing or transport capacity); or that have real development plans for their production (typically starting within the next five years according to SEC rules, although for large, long cycle conventional projects the time can be extended). The undeveloped values for 2016 are shown on each chart.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

OPEC January Oil Production Data

February 14, 2018

OPEC January Oil Production Data

The OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report is out production data for January 2018. All data, unless otherwise noted, is through January 2018 and is in thousand barrels per day.

OPEC crude only production has held steady for three months. However, this chart masks the fact that November production was revised downward by 45,000 barrels per day and December production was revised downward by 107,000 barrels per day. January production was 76,000 barrels per day below last years 12 month average of 32,378,000 barrels per day and 247,000 barrels per day lower than OPEC’s 2016 12 month average of 32,549,000 barrels per day.

OPEC oil production was down just 8,100 barrels per day in January. November production was revised down 45,000 bpd and December production was revised down by 107,000 bpd. The largest revisions were for Venezuela. Their production was revised down 28,000 bpd in November and 98,000 bpd in December.

Algeria, like at least 8 other OPEC countries, is in continuous decline.

Angola peaked in 2008 at a 12 month average of 1,870,000 barrels per day are currently about a quarter of a million barrels per day below that number.

Ecuador’s crude oil production increased steadily for four and one-half years, from mid-2010 to January of 2015 and has been on a bumpy decline for the last three year

Equatorial Guinea’s chart speaks for itself. I really don’t know why they joined OPEC. Their production is clearly in decline but is not enough to make much difference either way.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

US Crude plus Condensate and Tight Oil, Jan 2018 Update

January 26, 2018

US Crude plus Condensate and Tight Oil, Jan 2018 Update

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From Dec 2016 to Dec 2017 US Tight oil output has increased by 975 kb/d based on US tight oil output data from the EIA.

For the entire US we only have EIA monthly output estimates through Oct 2017. Over the Dec 2016 to Oct 2017 period US output has increased by 866 kb/d and the OLS trend has a slope of 821 kb/d.

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Note that the 866 kb/d increase in US output over 10 months would be a 1040 kb/d increase over a 12 month period.

Most of the increase in US output has been from increased LTO output. The forecasts by several agencies (EIA, IEA, and OPEC) of more than a 1000 kb/d increase in US output in 2018 may assume that the recently increased oil price level will lead to increased investment in the oil sector.

Much of the increase in LTO output has been in the Permian basin and several factors may slow down the recent rapid growth. Among these are limited fracking crews, inadequate pipeline capacity for natural gas, which will limit output as flaring limits are reached, and potential water shortages.

Longer term the various LTO plays will run out of space to drill more wells in the tier one areas (the so-called sweet-spots) and this will limit the rate of increase within 2 or 3 years. It is likely that the Eagle Ford is close to this point, the Bakken might reach that point by 2019, and the Permian basin perhaps by 2021.

For US C+C output, I expect about a 600+/-100 kb/d increase in 2018.

OPEC December Oil Production

January 19, 2018

OPEC December Oil Production

The latest OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report is out with production numbers for December 2017. All data is in thousand barrels per day.

Total OPEC crude only production was up by 42,400 barrels per day in December. However, that was after November production was revised downward by 75,000 bpd. So OPEC production was actually down 33,000 bpd from what was reported last month.

I have posted OPEC production according to “secondary sources” as well as OPEC production based on “direct communication” in order to show what Venezuela said they were producing when called by the editors of the MOMR. More about that below Venezuela’s production chart.

Algeria was up 30,000 bpd in December but the downward trend continues.

Angola’s crude oil production is holding steady.

Ecuador’s latest peak was in 2015 and they have been in slow decline since then.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Oil Price Outlook December 2017

December 21, 2017

Oil Price Outlook December 2017

This assessment is based on the data in the 2017 BP Statistical Review of World Energy available here. As such it uses that review’s definition of oil which is crude and condensate and natural gas liquids, uncompensated for their different energy contents or values of refined product components.

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Figure 1: World Oil Production 1990 – 2017
This analysis was prompted by a chart by Ovi showing that Non-OPEC production less Russia, Canada and the United States has been in decline since 2004. That decline rate is 0.25 million barrels/day/annum. It had previously risen strongly from 1990.

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Figure 2: Production Rate Change 2007 – 2016
The United States LTO patch is widely credited with having caused the oil price collapse of 2014. American production had risen by six million barrels per day since 2007. The United States was not alone with four other countries totalling six million barrels per day of production increase. Iraq and Saudi Arabia contributed two million barrels per day each with Russia and Canada contributing one million barrels per day each.

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Figure 3: World Oil Consumption 1990 – 2016
OECD consumption has been flat even as OECD countries have had an increase in GDP.

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Figure 4: Where the Oil Went
The fall of non-OECD consumption from 1990 to 1996 was due to the dissolution of the Soviet Union. Since then consumption growth has been steady at about 835,000 barrels/day/annum. Chinese consumption growth was 240,000 barrels/day/annum up to 2002 and then steepened to 512,000 barrels/day/annum since. OECD consumption growth was strong up to 2007 and then demand contracted due to higher oil prices. From here it looks like OECD consumption has plateaued. China may have also plateaued. Non-OECD consumption is likely to continue rising with a large part of that being due to India.

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Figure 5: World Oil Production from 1990 with a Projection to 2025

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

OPEC November Oil Production

December 16, 2017

OPEC November Oil Production

The OPEC data below was taken from the December OPEC Monthly Oil Maret Report. All data is through November 2017 unless otherwise noted.

OPEC crude oil production declined by 133,500 barrels per day in November.

Algeria was up slightly in November after that huge decline in October.

Angola was the biggest loser in November, down 108,700 barrels per day.

Ecuador, though holding its own for the last year, appears to be in slow decline.

I have managed to cobble together an estimate of Equatorial Guinea’s historical C+C production. I had the EIA’s production numbers through June 2013. I subtracted 10% for “other liquids”, then merged that with the OPEC MOMR data that started in 2016. However, Equatorial Guinea’s production is not enough to make much difference.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Non-OPEC Mid-size Oil Producers

November 29, 2017

Non-OPEC Mid-size Oil Producers

This post covers recent C&C production and future prospects, with a bit on gas, for several mid-size non-OPEC producers. A few have been omitted (e.g. Canada, Kazakhstan, Egypt, UK) for no particular reasons other than lack of time or anything much to say, but may be covered in the future. Many of the countries here have held a bumpy plateau over the last twelve to eighteen months. For most this has come after a period of decline, and some are showing signs that decline might be starting again. Brazil has been on a plateau after a period of increase, and may be about to renew that growth. There is a general theme that oil discoveries and developments are drying up and most of the countries are looking more to gas, but with the current gas glut looking like it might end up worse than the 2014/15 oil glut that strategy may prove difficult in the near term.

Brazil

Brazil production peaked in March and has been on a plateau since (data below is through July, there should have been an August update but ANP aren’t very consistent in release dates). They have had several large FPSOs offline for maintenance (generally their FPSOs don’t have the best availability and they have had recent common mode failure issues with the high pressure gas risers, though I don’t know if this is a direct cause of the recent turnarounds). The Campos fields’ average water cut seems to be accelerating, which might also be contributing to a plateau rather than allowing a new peak.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

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