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Tag Archives: James Rickards
Don’t Miss the Signs of Another Slow-Motion Meltdown
Don’t Miss the Signs of Another Slow-Motion Meltdown If you’ve ever lived through a life-threatening emergency — whether a car crash, train wreck or a steep fall (hopefully not) — you have noticed that time seems to slow down. You witness your personal jeopardy in slow motion. A memorable example of this is the film […]
New Reality of China’s Failing Economy Is Coming Soon
New Reality of China’s Failing Economy Is Coming Soon I’ve written for years that Chinese economic development is partly real and partly smoke and mirrors, and that it’s critical for investors to separate one from the other to make any sense out of China and its impact on the world. My longest piece on this […]
Prepare for a Chinese Maxi-devaluation
Prepare for a Chinese Maxi-devaluation The news is being dominated by breathless headlines about the new trade war between the U.S. and China. But this trade war has been brewing for years and came as no surprise to readers of my newsletter, Project Prophesy. In fact, the new trade war is simply a continuation of […]
The Fed Is on a Collision Course
The Fed Is on a Collision Course Is the Trump economic boom a mirage? The data say yes, but the Fed models say no. The Fed has a long track record of sticking to its model-based approach and missing major turns in the U.S. economy. Current Fed policy will push the U.S. economy to the […]
A New Global Debt Crisis Has Begun
A New Global Debt Crisis Has Begun Emerging-market debt crises are as predictable as spring rain. They happen every 15–20 years, with a few variations and exceptions. In recent decades, the first crisis in this series was the Latin American debt crisis of 1982–85. The combination of inflation and a commodity price boom in the […]
The “Axis of Gold” Just Got Stronger
The “Axis of Gold” Just Got Stronger As you probably know by now, President Trump backed out of the nuclear deal with Iran and is re-imposing harsh sanctions. And just this morning, Trump announced that he’s canceling the much-anticipated nuclear summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un because of Kim’s recent belligerent comments. What […]
“Ice Nine” Comes to China
“Ice Nine” Comes to China The war on cash has been going on for decades. The U.S. abolished the $500 bill in late 1969. (The old $500 bill featured a portrait of President William McKinley, by the way. I remember seeing a few when I was a kid.) Today’s $100 bill is only worth 10 […]
Russia’s Real Endgame
Russia’s Real Endgame Russia’s Putin has never taken his eye off the ball. His ambition is not global hegemony or European conquest. Putin seeks what Russia has always sought: regional hegemony and a set of buffer states in eastern Europe and central Asia that can add to Russia’s strategic depth. In Syria, Russia has the […]
Is This the Moment of Truth?
Is This the Moment of Truth? One of the most famous passages in American literature occurs in Chapter 13 of Ernest Hemingway’s The Sun Also Rises. It takes place in a café in Pamplona, Spain during the running of the bulls. Bill Gorton, a friend of the protagonist, Jake Barnes, has just arrived from New […]
The Fed Must Have Inflation. Failure Is Not an Option
The Fed Must Have Inflation. Failure Is Not an Option The Fed says incessantly that “price stability” is part of their dual mandate and they are committed to maintaining the purchasing power of the dollar. But the Fed has a funny definition of price stability. Common sense says price stability should be zero inflation and […]
Rising Economic Head Winds
Rising Economic Head Winds Remember the “tea party” revolt in 2009–2010 against government bailouts and government spending? Remember the “fiscal cliff” drama of Dec. 31, 2012, when Congress raised taxes and cut spending to avoid a debt default and government shutdown? Remember the actual government shutdown in October 2013 as Republicans held the line against […]
The Bubble That Could Break the World
The Bubble That Could Break the World The key to bubble analysis is to look at what’s causing the bubble. If you get the hidden dynamics right, your ability to collect huge profits or avoid losses is greatly improved. Based on data going back to the 1929 crash, this current bubble looks like a particular […]
2018: The Year of Living Dangerously
2018: The Year of Living Dangerously I’m calling 2018 “The Year of Living Dangerously.” That description might seem odd to lot of observers. Major U.S. stock indexes keep hitting new all-time highs. 2017 went down as the first calendar year in which the Dow Jones industrial average was up for all 12 months. Even in […]
Intelligence Insider Warns Of Imminent War: “Likely In The Next 12 Weeks… The Director Of The CIA Told Me”
Intelligence Insider Warns Of Imminent War: “Likely In The Next 12 Weeks… The Director Of The CIA Told Me” Having worked closely with U.S. intelligence agencies over the last two decades, James Rickards was once asked to simulate asymmetric economic attacks on the U.S. financial system. He is an expert at escalation scenarios and end […]
Gold, Interest Rates and Super Cycles
Gold, Interest Rates and Super Cycles When the Fed raised interest rates last December, many believed gold would plunge. But it didn’t happen. Gold bottomed the day after the rate hike, but then started moving higher again. Incidentally, the same thing happened after the Fed tightened in December 2015. Gold had one of its best […]
