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The Coming Exponential Silver Price Movement
The Coming Exponential Silver Price Movement As the global highly-leveraged debt-based financial system comes under serious stress, investors are going to finally realize that the silver market is very tiny and extremely undervalued. This is when we will likely see the exponential silver price movement. And, it’s not a matter of “IF,” but rather a […]
Recession Arithmetic: What Would It Take?
Recession Arithmetic: What Would It Take? David Rosenberg explores Recession Arithmetic in today’s Breakfast With Dave. I add a few charts of my own to discuss. Rosenberg notes “Private fixed investment has declined two quarters in a row as of 2019 Q3. Since 1980, this has only happened twice outside of a recession.” Here is […]
GDP Estimates Crash on Dismal Economic Reports
GDP Estimates Crash on Dismal Economic Reports GDP Estimates are well below 1.0% following industrial production and retail sales estimates. The GDPNow model forecast for the fourth quarter took a dive today to 0.3% from 1.0% a week ago. Similarly, the Nowcast model fell to 0.4% from 0.7%. Pat Higgins at GDPNow explains: “The GDPNow model estimate for real […]
World Debt Downgrade Warning – Moody’s
World Debt Downgrade Warning – Moody’s ◆ A World Debt Downgrade Warning (WDDW) has been issued by credit rating agency Moody’s due to deepening global geopolitical uncertainty and risks ◆ Moody’s has issued a debt downgrade warning to the entire world on fears that severe political turmoil from London to Hong Kong poses a threat […]
How the GDP Framework Creates the Illusion That By Means of Money Pumping the Central Bank Can Grow an Economy
HOW THE GDP FRAMEWORK CREATES THE ILLUSION THAT BY MEANS OF MONEY PUMPING THE CENTRAL BANK CAN GROW AN ECONOMY In response to a weakening in the yearly growth rate of key economic indicators such as industrial production and real gross domestic product (GDP) some commentators have raised the alarm of the possibility of a […]
Fourth Turning Economics
Fourth Turning Economics “In retrospect, the spark might seem as ominous as a financial crash, as ordinary as a national election, or as trivial as a Tea Party. The catalyst will unfold according to a basic Crisis dynamic that underlies all of these scenarios: An initial spark will trigger a chain reaction of unyielding responses […]
A tale of two deflations
A tale of two deflations Japanification is a term that has re-emerged recently. It refers to the prolonged economic stagnation of Japan, which commenced after a financial crash in the early 1990s. The stagnation of Japan has been marked by very low inflation (recurring periods of deflation), stagnating productivity growth and a massive increase in government […]
Global Debt Hits $246 Trillion, 320% Of GDP, As Developing Debt Hits All Time High
Global Debt Hits $246 Trillion, 320% Of GDP, As Developing Debt Hits All Time High According to the latest IIF Global Debt Monitor released today, debt around the globe hit $246 trillion in Q1 2019, rising by $3 trillion in the quarter, and outpacing the rate of growth of the global economy as total debt/GDP […]
Bizarro World: The Herd Has Truly Gone MadYou’re not crazy. The world we now live in is
Bizarro World: The Herd Has Truly Gone MadYou’re not crazy. The world we now live in is Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, and one by one. ~ Charles Mackay (1841) Like me, you may often […]
Australia Lowers Rate to Historic Low of 1%
Australia Lowers Rate to Historic Low of 1% The Reserve Bank of Australia has cut the official cash rate for the second month in a row to 1%. As we head into the turning point of the Economic Confidence Model come January 2020, the unemployment rate increased to 5.2% in April. GDP growth remains very […]
What were Roman Taxes v Modern Taxes?
What were Roman Taxes v Modern Taxes? QUESTION: You do a lot of comparison to the Roman Empire. What was the size of the government relative to GDP? Can you estimate that? GY ANSWER: The Roman economy was more like the USA during the mid-19th century in that it was pre-industrial. About 80% of its inhabitants […]
The Economy Has Fundamentally Changed in the 21st Century–and Not for the Better
The Economy Has Fundamentally Changed in the 21st Century–and Not for the Better The net result is we have an economy that’s supposedly expanding smartly while our well-being and financial security are collapsing. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and other metrics of economic activity don’t measure either broad-based prosperity or well-being. Elites skimming financialization profits by expanding […]
This Is the End of the Cycle
This Is the End of the Cycle Both new households and new businesses are in secular decline. Goosing the stock market and GDP doesn’t change this reality. Everyone wants every cycle of expansion to last forever, but alas every cycle ends. The growth cycle that began in 2009 is finally coming to an end. The signs […]
That Time the Dollar Tide Went Out…
That Time the Dollar Tide Went Out… Welcome to the Dollar Rally to end all rallies. This week’s action in the U.S. dollar puts paid all of the moves by the Fed and the ECB over the past three months to forestall this from coming. First it was January’s FOMC meeting where the Fed completely […]
If “Getting Ahead” Depends on Asset Bubbles, It’s Not “Getting Ahead,” It’s Gambling
If “Getting Ahead” Depends on Asset Bubbles, It’s Not “Getting Ahead,” It’s Gambling Given that the economy is now totally and completely dependent on inflating asset bubbles, it makes no sense to invest for the long-term. Beneath the endlessly hyped expansion in gross domestic product (GDP) of the past two decades, the economy has changed […]
