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Blowout Week 118

April 3, 2016

Blowout Week 118

This week we focus on solar power in the United States. A report by the US National Renewable Energy Laboratory has concluded that the country can fill 39% of its electricity needs with rooftop solar PV alone. And that doesn’t include the “immense potential” of ground-mounted PV units. Is an all-solar America on the horizon?

Popular Science:  Rooftop Solar Panels Could Power Nearly 40 Percent Of The U.S.

The Energy Department’s National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) issued a report last week that analyzed the ability of America’s roofs to host solar panels. They looked at rooftops in 128 cities across the country, analyzing buildings large and small for their suitability for hosting photovoltaic (PV) solar panels, and how much power could be generated in each location. The estimates varied by state and by region, but overall, the report found that 39 percent of the country’s energy could be generated by rooftop solar panels. “It is important to note that this report only estimates the potential from existing, suitable rooftops, and does not consider the immense potential of ground-mounted PV,” co-author Robert Margolis said. “Actual generation from PV in urban areas could exceed these estimates by installing systems on less suitable roof space, by mounting PV on canopies over open spaces such as parking lots, or by integrating PV into building facades. Further, the results are sensitive to assumptions about module performance, which are expected to continue improving over time.”

We continue with the usual eclectic mix of stories from the energy, climate and related fields, including OPEC’s trials and tribulations, another US rig count decline, Mexico’s oil and gas reserves fall, Sinopec to double gas production, Gazprom expects a record year for exports to Europe, Sunedison facing bankruptcy, the UK to get smart grids, a reprieve for Fiddler’s Ferry, a new, safer, cheaper nuclear fuel rod, storing energy on electric trains, whether climate change is good or bad for UK wine and whether it makes it immoral to have kids.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

One Step Closer to Blackouts

March 28, 2016

One Step Closer to Blackouts

On Thursday 24th March, Longannet Power Station closed down. This 2.4 GW, coal fired giant, was the beating heart of Scottish Electricity supply. The station opened in 1970 and was arguably past its sell by date. The Scottish supply is now based on nuclear, wind and imports with a little hydro and gas on the side. I think nuclear and wind is likely the worst combination for any grid that no sane power engineer would design. Variable and intermittent wind does not sit well with constant, base load  nuclear power. We have reached this point in pursuit of Green dogma.

In this post I examine the policy and politics that led to this event and go on to consider the social and economic consequences of a nation-wide blackout that power engineers now believe is far more likely than before.

What causes blackouts?

A blackout normally occurs as a result of an electrical fault at a power station or transmission line that causes the generator or power line to trip. Sensors on the equipment react to abnormal behaviour and automatically shut down the generator or power line. This can cause a power surge or dip on neighbouring lines causing them to trip and the fault can cascade through the system like falling dominoes.

The alternative variety of blackout is one where there is insufficient supply to meet demand and part of the transmission system needs to be shut down in order to maintain the essential and ubiquitous balance between supply and demand. This type of blackout will euphemistically become known as demand management.

Blackouts are common throughout the developing world but are relatively rare in the OECD. When they occur in the OECD chaos ensues.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Can Geology Tell Us What is Warming the Climate?

March 18, 2016

Can Geology Tell Us What is Warming the Climate?

On Monday this week, and rather late in the day, Dr Colin Summerhayes from the Scott Polar Institute, Cambridge University, left this lengthy comment at the end of the thread on Prof. Richard Lindzen’s post called Global Warming and the Irrelevance of Science. I wanted to respond to some of the points raised but did not want to do this at the end of an old comment thread, and so asked if I may publish the comment as a guest submission. Dr Summerhayes responded by expanding on the comment and submitting the Opinion Piece that is published below.

Here are some of the highlights from Dr Summerhayes’ CV:

  • April 2010: Emeritus Associate, Scott Polar Research Institute
  • January 1 2004 part time, and full time from April 1 2004- April 9 2010: Executive Director, International Council for Science’s Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research (SCAR)
  • 1997-2004: Director Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS) Project Office; UNESCO’s Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission, Paris
  • 1995-1997: Southampton Oceanography Centre; Deputy Director, and Head of Seafloor Processes Division.
  • 1988-1995: Director, Natural Environmental Research Council’s Institute of Oceanographic Sciences Deacon Laboratory, Wormley, Surrey.
  • 1982-1988: BP Research Centre. (A) 1982-1985: Research Associate; (B) 1985-88: Senior Research Associate and Manager, Stratigraphy Branch.
  • 1976-1982: Research Associate and Project Leader; Petroleum Geochemistry Branch, Exxon Production Research Co, Houston, Texas.

Comments will be strictly moderated. Additional commenting guidelines are given at the end of the post.

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Despite the world’s politicians finally agreeing, in Paris in December 2015, on what to do about global warming, many scientists still reject the evidence for it being caused by humans, or question that it is a significant problem.

For example, Dr Lindzen (2016) agrees that although carbon dioxide (CO2) is a greenhouse gas, which absorbs and re-emits infrared radiation from the Earth’s surface, the increase in its concentration in the atmosphere is not important because its climate sensitivity (the amount by which temperature will rise for a doubling of CO2) is low.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

 

Is Global Warming Quickening?

March 16, 2016

Is Global Warming Quickening?

On Monday 14th March, Channel 4 News (UK terrestrial news channel) carried a report on catastrophic February warming and involved two distinguished UK climate scientists. What was said was so far away from the physical reality that I experience here on Earth that I was left wondering if they were talking about the same planet. So I have done a little digging.

Everyone who can should try and watch the 5 minute clip. The link takes you to a news catch up page. Select Monday 14 March and the clip titled “Is Global warming Quickening?”.

Figure 1 The NASA GISS LOTI (Land Ocean Temperature Index) graphic shown on Channel 4 News. This is a screen capture from the video archive linked above. Take a close look at the gradation of the colour scale that is discussed further below. This image bears no resemblance at all to the current NOAA SST image that appears immediately below the fold.

Sea Surface Temperatures (SST)

Let us begin by comparing the NASA GISS LOTI (Land Ocean Temperature Index) with current  SSTs.

Figure 2 The full global SSTs as recorded on 14 March 2016. NOAA SSTs downloaded from this link. If anything I’m more concerned by all that blue. The dying remnants of the El Nino along the Equator cover a vast area that is not captured by this projection while the cold southern ocean covers a relatively small area.

The SSTs present a totally different picture. In fact a worryingly cool picture with the N Atlantic now looking as cool as I’ve seen it, a likely refection of the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) preparing to flip to cool mode. The N Pacific and whole of the Southern Ocean are distinctly cool. How they manage to manufacture record warmth out of this is a story for another day. But how do Figures 1 and 2 appear so different. Part of the answer lies in the colour scale intervals that are chosen.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Global Warming and the Irrelevance of Science

February 18, 2016

Global Warming and the Irrelevance of Science

Guest essay by Richard S. Lindzen, Alfred P. Sloan Professor of Atmospheric Sciences (Emeritus) Massachusetts Institute of Technology. This is the text of a lecture delivered on August 20, 2015 to the 48th Session: Erice International Seminars on Planetary Emergencies

In many fields, governments have a monopoly on the support of scientific research. Ideally, they support the science because they believe objective research to be valuable. Unfortunately, as anticipated by Eisenhower in his farewell speech from January 17, 1961 (the one that also warned of the military-industrial complex), “Partly because of the huge costs involved, a government contract becomes virtually a substitute for intellectual curiosity.” Under these circumstances, when the government wants a particular scientific outcome the ideal arrangement is vulnerable. However, as I hope to show, the problem is not simply bias.

Rather, the powers that be invent the narrative independently of the views of even cooperating scientists. It is, in this sense, that the science becomes irrelevant. This was certainly the case in the first half of the twentieth century, where we just have to look at Lysenkoism [1] in the former Soviet Union, Social Darwinism, and Eugenics throughout the western world [2], as well as, in the 1960s, the unfounded demonization of DDT [3]. Each phenomenon led to millions of deaths. And, in each case, the scientific community was essentially paralyzed, if not actually complicit.

Will climate catastrophism join this list? It appears so. The position of the policy world is clear. Here is President Obama’s constant refrain:

“Climate change is contributing to extreme weather, wildfires, and drought, and that rising temperatures can lead to more smog and more allergens in the air we breathe, meaning more kids are exposed to the triggers that can cause asthma attacks.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

UK Blackout Risk – Amber Warning

February 11, 2016

UK Blackout Risk – Amber Warning

In recent months, three companies have announced closure of 4 large coal-fired power stations in the UK representing a total loss of 6.671 GW base load capacity*. Combined with closure of 1 nuclear station and the pending closure of two CCGTs, total capacity loss in 2016 will amount to 8.726 GW. If there was a blackout risk this winter, then things will obviously be much worse next winter.

In effect traditional generators are throwing in the towel confronted with a neo-Marxist system of production quotas, targets, subsidies, levies and regulation that places their superior technology at an impossible disadvantage to inferior wind and solar power, both of which are useless in averting a blackout risk when it is highest during a calm winter evening. UK Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Change, Amber Rudd, needs to re-discover her Tory credentials and sort this situation out.

[* Note that this is a fluid situation with other announcements made since I wrote these words]

The last time I visited this topic was in October 2015 and at that time I saw little risk of UK blackouts this winter. The lights have thus far stayed on! But in the five months since, a lot has changed. The main variable is on-going closure of legacy base load power stations. But I have also learned a bit more about system operation and how the statistics should be interpreted. Mainly I have learned that power stations located in Northern Ireland should not be counted in UK generating statistics since National Grid does not include Northern Ireland in UK demand figures. And plant availability is never 100% and needs to be de-rated by approximately 15% to represent the real world of fires, boiler leaks and vibrations that are common place in the world of electricity generation and maintenance schedules.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Oil Production Vital Statistics January 2016

February 4, 2016

Oil Production Vital Statistics January 2016

Market fundamentals point to chronic over-supply of crude oil throughout 2016. The technicals point to the makings of an oil price rally. A strong price rally from current levels may extend the situation of chronic over-supply that may have a debilitating impact on the oil price and the oil industry for years to come.

Figure 1 The oil price has seen a lot of action since the last report. As anticipated, support in the vicinity of $40 did not hold and the price moved sharply lower in January. WTI hit $26.68 and Brent $26.01 on January 20th. Since then there has been a cyclical rally. More on the future direction of the oil price at the end of this report.

This article first appeared on Energy Matters.

EIA oil price and Baker Hughes rig count charts are updated to the end of January 2016, the remaining oil production charts are updated to December 2015 using the IEA OMRdata.

Figure 2 The bigger picture shows how price support has been busted . The lower dashed line shows the lows reached in 1998. On a deflated basis that works out at around $15 in today’s money.

Figure 3 The US oil and gas rig count has continued its steep decline, but as yet this has not shown up in significant falls in US production. The situation remains complicated by large numbers of drilled and uncompleted wells coming on line. At some point the fall in drilling must show up in sharply lower production. But with 498 rigs still drilling oil and 121 rigs drilling gas (+associated liquids) there is still a lot of new production to substantially offset steep declines in LTO wells.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

2015: record hot or not?

January 27, 2016

2015: record hot or not?

With the 2015 lower troposphere temperatures in, NASA and NOAA have declared without any caveats or doubts, that 2015 was the warmest year since records began. This short post updates my charts that compare satellite with surface thermometers temperatures. The differences between the two methodologies are in fact tiny and subtle. According to satellites, 2015 was the third warmest year, lagging 1999 by a fair margin. The main material difference, therefore, is that the satellite record would deprive the scaremongers at NASA and NOAA of their eye popping headlines.

Figure 1 Surface thermometer (GISS LOTI and HadCrut4) and satellite (UAH and RSS) records compared. It is plain to see that surface thermometers set a new record in 2015 while the satellites did not.

In this post I am looking at two of the surface thermometer records (GISS LOTI and HadCrut4) and the only two versions of the satellite record (UAH and RSS). The surface thermometer models are based to a large extent on the same surface thermometer data base where air temperature is measured over land and sea surface temperature (SST) is measured over the oceans. The results are area weighted with the SSTs contributing about 70% of the total. The satellite models are based on the exact same satellite recordings. We will see that there is no material difference between GISS LOTI and HadCrut4 and no material difference between UAH and RSS.

The satellite record begins in 1980 and it is only the post-1980 parts of the records that are considered here. The records use different base periods from which temperature anomalies are calculated and this hinders direct comparisons. This is overcome by rebasing each series to 1980-1984 = 0˚C. The online data sources and how to find them are detailed in the appendix.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Oil Price Crash: How low will the oil price go?

January 19, 2016

Oil Price Crash: How low will the oil price go?

I have been following the oil price crash since it began in late 2014, providing annual forecast scenarios and monthly vital statistics updates. There has recently been an acceleration in activity and news, and as the oil price has continued its fall to below $30, investors and speculators wrestle with the main question: “how low will the oil price go?”

In August 2015 I gave a crude answer to that question based on history in a post called The Oil Price: how low is low? where I observed:

To get straight to the point. Brent will need to fall below $30 to match the lows seen in 1986 and to below $20 to match the lows seen in 1998.

This observation was based on deflated annual average price from BP ($2014). The notion of $20 oil has since caught on and some commentators are now speculating that $10 is possible. It is time to have a closer look at what history tells us.

This article was originally published on the Energy Matters blog.

First a look at recent oil price action.

Figure 1 Long term picture of WTI and Brent daily spot oil prices. The most recent falls have taken the oil price to the 2008 lows that technically may provide price support. But supply demand fundamentals are against that. The last time we had an over-supply based rout was 1998/99 (arrow) where in money of the day, Brent bottomed at $10/bbl. Adjusted for inflation, that is approximately $15/bbl in today’s money.

On a money of the day basis, the oil price has now reached the lows, and support level, seen in the wake of the 2008 finance crash. In detail, the support level has already been pricked and on a deflated basis, that support is already broken.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

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