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This ‘Deflationary’ Bull Markets Ending – And Here’s What’s Coming Next For Investors
This ‘Deflationary’ Bull Markets Ending – And Here’s What’s Coming Next For Investors After many years of cheap money and asset bubbles – it looks like the upside is finally over. That is – the potential upside against the amount of risk taken on – is over. I often write about investors needing to find […]
Can Deflation Undo the Damage of Inflation?
CAN DEFLATION UNDO THE DAMAGE OF INFLATION? In our various writings, we have suggested that loose monetary policy of the central bank, which amounts to the lowering of interest rates and monetary pumping, gives rise to activities that cannot exist by themselves without the support from this loose monetary policy. An increase in money supply […]
Surge in Global Credit Driven by China: Deflationary Bust Coming
Surge in Global Credit Driven by China: Deflationary Bust Coming Since 2008 the growth in global credit has been on the back of China. Real estate led the way. Now what? Inquiring minds should take a look at FT Alphaville article Chinese Real Estate, Charted. Here is the key chart. In March, Jim Chanos stated […]
A Summer Of Disappointments Will Lead To An Extended Economic Crash
A Summer Of Disappointments Will Lead To An Extended Economic Crash The summer season is often about renewed hope and revelry in comfort, and this goes for economic comfort as much as anything else. In parallel to the old tale of The Ant And The Grasshopper, we are all tempted to act like the grasshopper, […]
Debt Deflation Italian Style
Debt Deflation Italian Style New York – This week The IRA will be at the MBA Secondary Market Conference & Expo, as always held at the Marriott Marquis in Times Square. The 8th floor reception and bar is where folks generally hang out. Attendees should not miss the panel on mortgage servicing rights at 3:00 […]
What Really Causes Inflation & Deflation?
What Really Causes Inflation & Deflation? QUESTION: why national debts eventually default Martin to answer this question you said: we need to introduce currency. France and Germany were less impacted by converting to the Euro than Greece, Italy, Spain, and Portugal. Why? Currency Inflation! My question is if it is not the quantity of money […]
Velocity of Money Picks Up: Inflation Coming? Stagflation? How About Deflation?
Velocity of Money Picks Up: Inflation Coming? Stagflation? How About Deflation? The velocity of money is picking up. What does it mean? Velocity of money is defined as (prices * transactions) / (money supply). Economists substitute GDP for (prices * transactions). This tweet caught my eye today. Velocity of Money has increased for third quarter […]
The Deflation/Inflation Debate
THE DEFLATION/INFLATION DEBATE “Naïve inflationism demands an increase in the quantity of money without suspecting that this will diminish the purchasing power of the money.” ― Ludwig von mises, The Theory of Money and Credit It is hardly surprising that with equity indices stalling, the financial community is increasingly worried that the long, steady bull market […]
An Inflation Indicator to Watch, Part 3
An Inflation Indicator to Watch, Part 3 “During the 1980s and 1990s, most industrial-country central banks were able to cage, if not entirely tame, the inflation dragon.” —Ben Bernanke Ben Bernanke began his oft-cited “helicopter speech” in 2002 with a few kind words about his peers, including the excerpt above. Speaking for central bankers, he […]
Still None, and Even More Reasons to Expect None
STILL NONE, AND EVEN MORE REASONS TO EXPECT NONE The parallels between the last few years and those at the end of the 1990’s are striking. There was a few years ago the monetary intrusion of the “rising dollar” which at its worst seriously depressed the global economy. Oil prices crashed, as did several key […]
The Fed Must Have Inflation. Failure Is Not an Option
The Fed Must Have Inflation. Failure Is Not an Option The Fed says incessantly that “price stability” is part of their dual mandate and they are committed to maintaining the purchasing power of the dollar. But the Fed has a funny definition of price stability. Common sense says price stability should be zero inflation and […]
Inflation is in the Rear-View Mirror
Inflation is in the Rear-View Mirror 43 percent of credit card holders carry a balance. Delinquencies are rising. It’s a deflationary debt trap. Revolving Credit Hits New Record High In December, revolving debt has topped the previous high-water mark of $1.021 trillion set in April of 2008. Debt as of December 2017 (the latest available) […]
Inflation Coming? How About Deflation?
Inflation Coming? How About Deflation? Economists expect higher inflation based on rising producer prices. But will producer prices feed consumer prices? When? Do producer prices eventually feed into consumer prices? If so, what’s the lead or lag time? The Wall Street Journal article Why the Inflation Picture Looks Starkly Different for Businesses and Consumers got […]
US Fiscal Policy Will Lead To A Debt Catastrophe: Goldman
US Fiscal Policy Will Lead To A Debt Catastrophe: Goldman Judging by how urgently Goldman’s research department is trying to get the bank’s clients to sell treasuries, Goldman’s prop traders must have a desperate bid for duration in anticipation of what probably will be a historic deflationary shock. It started a month ago when Goldman […]
This Isn’t Your Grandfather’s (1960s) Inflation Scare
March 14, 2018
This Isn’t Your Grandfather’s (1960s) Inflation Scare “This reminds me of the late 1960s when we experimented with low rates and fiscal stimulus to keep the economy at full employment and fund the Vietnam War. Today we don’t have a recession, let alone a war. We are setting the stage for accelerating inflation, just as […]
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