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We Are Witnessing Economic Carnage Like We Have Never Seen Before, And The Economy Is Going To Continue To Bleed Jobs
We Are Witnessing Economic Carnage Like We Have Never Seen Before, And The Economy Is Going To Continue To Bleed Jobs
Now we are up to 33.5 million jobs lost. In just 7 weeks, the U.S. economy has been completely turned upside down, and the numbers are unlike anything that we have ever seen before. On Thursday, the Labor Department announced that 3.17 million Americans filed initial claims for unemployment benefits last week. That brings the grand total for this crisis up to 33.5 million, and that figure absolutely dwarfs what we witnessed during the last recession. And as I discussed yesterday, even the mainstream media is now admitting that millions of those jobs are never coming back.
Yes, some Americans will be going back to work now that the lockdowns are being ended, but for now it is being projected that the job losses will continue to surpass any gains that are made by workers that are returning to their old jobs.
In fact, one prominent economist told CNBC that it will likely take until mid-June before the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits each week falls below a million…
At the current pace, the week claims numbers should fall below 1 million by mid-June, according to Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. “We’re very hopeful that June will see the beginnings of a rebound as states begin to reopen,” Shepherdson said.
To put that in perspective, prior to this year the all-time record for a single week was just 695,000.
So even when we get down to a million new claims each week, that will still be a catastrophic level.
And the truth is that these numbers don’t even tell the entire story. Because state unemployment websites have been so overwhelmed, there are vast numbers of unemployed Americans that still have not been able to successfully file claims.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Impact of Corona Virus similar to some earlier peak oil scenarios
Impact of Corona Virus similar to some earlier peak oil scenarios
Empty roads, grounded aircraft, falling tourist and international student numbers, plunging car sales, empty super market shelves, disrupted supply chains…
Fig 1: Empty roads in Wuhan in February 2020
China Car Sales Slump 92% in First Half of February on Virus
21 Feb 2020
Fig 2: Chinese car sales were down since June 2018
That all sounds like peak oil has hit except that oil prices are low now. Which may change of course as low oil prices may mean that US shale oil is likely to peak earlier than otherwise would have been the case.
Fig 3: US tight oil production
https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/
The graph shows that tight oil production took off when oil prices were around $100/barrel but peaked in March 2015 and then declined as oil prices dropped to $50/barrel. Production started to recover in September 2016 but almost half of the production (mainly from Bakken, Eagle Ford, Niobrara and Aanadako) has already peaked again in October 2019 and in March 2020 is estimated to be just 240 kb/d higher than the 2015 peak. The other half of the production, from the Permian (Texas) is still growing but monthly growth rates have declined from 180 kb/d in mid 2018 to 40 kb/d now. Recent data are preliminary.
Coronavirus Delivers Another Blow to Embattled Shale Drillers
29 Feb 2020
Frackers already faced financial woes in 2020, even before the virus threatened oil demand
Shale drillers were already braced for a tough year. Now the new coronavirus is putting them under even greater financial pressure.
Exploration and production companies are straining to slow growth—amid an oversupply of oil and gas—and cut spending to appease investors angry over poor returns. Now the virus has further weakened global demand for their products, posing a greater challenge to a sector where many companies are saddled with debt.
Fig 4: Breakeven oil prices in the US
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
COVID-19: Propaganda & the Art of Exploiting a Pandemic
COVID-19: Propaganda & the Art of Exploiting a Pandemic
Throughout the U.S., institutions that have no real interest in public health are exploiting our sense of vulnerability to benefit their public images and their bottom lines, says Dr. Mike Pappas.
We have all likely seen or heard the commercials. They typically start with slow music and maybe a nice sunrise. The ads then give lip service to the “strange and uncertain” times in which we’re living. But never fear, your savior is here: some large corporation wants to let you know that they are “here for us.” Do not worry, even after the pandemic is over, they will still be “here for us.” This touching treacle would be incomplete without a nod to the “healthcare heroes” continuing to fight during this pandemic. It just touches your heart, doesn’t it? But the eerie similarity of many of the commercials is a bit off putting… It is almost as if there is a propaganda campaign designed to exploit our worry and vulnerability during the global pandemic.
The Field of Public Relations
Exploring the field of public relations is helpful when examining the recent flood of sentimental adverts. Edward Bernays, Sigmund Freud’s nephew, is universally known as the “father of public relations.” In the 1920s he pioneered the technique of shaping and manipulating public opinion, which he called “engineering consent.” In his influential 1928 book “Propaganda,”Bernays highlights the need to utilize people’s emotions to steer public opinion. He states:
“The conscious and intelligent manipulation of the organized habits and opinions of the masses is an important element in the democratic society. Those who manipulate this unseen mechanism of society constitute an invisible government which is the true ruling power of the country.”
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
China Asked WHO To Delay Pandemic Announcement, Deny Human-To-Human Transmission: German Intelligence
China Asked WHO To Delay Pandemic Announcement, Deny Human-To-Human Transmission: German Intelligence
German intelligence has revealed that Chinese President Xi Jinping asked World Health Organization (WHO) Director-General Tedros Adhanom Thebreyesus to cover up the severity of the coronavirus pandemic in January, according to Der Spiegel.
During a January 21 conversation – one week after the WHO assured the world there was ‘no clear evidence of human-to-human transmission’ – Xi reportedly asked Tedros not to reveal that the virus was in fact transmissible between humans, and to delay declaring that the coronavirus had become a pandemic – despite the virus qualifying as one by the WHO’s own former guidelines.
And while the WHO announced on the 22nd that data collected through their own investigation “suggests that human-to-human transmission is taking place in Wuhan,” which they said more analysis was required “to understand the full extent,” they waited all the way until March 11 to declare the virus a pandemic.
As Brahma Chellaney of Project Syndicate wrote last month:
It is now widely recognized that China’s political culture of secrecy helped to turn a local viral outbreak into the greatest global disaster of our time. Far from sounding the alarm when the new coronavirus was detected in Wuhan, the Communist Party of China (CPC) concealed the outbreak, allowing it to spread far and wide. Months later, China continues to sow doubt about the pandemic’s origins and withhold potentially life-saving data.
In mid-January, the body tweeted that investigations by Chinese authorities had found no clear evidence of human-to-human transmission of the virus. Taiwan’s December 31 warning that such transmission was likely happening in Wuhan was ignored by the WHO, even though the information had been enough to convince the Taiwanese authorities – which may have better intelligence on China than anyone else – to institute preventive measures at home before any other country, including China.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
The downfall of ‘Professor Lockdown’: triumphs and failures of science based policies
The downfall of ‘Professor Lockdown’: triumphs and failures of science based policies
Scientists normally think that a scientific theory can be good or bad independently of the moral status of the person who proposes it. But in politics, the messenger can be blamed. That was the probable reason for the downfall of Dr. Neil Ferguson, nicknamed “Professor Lockdown,” whose moral position was destroyed by a petty sexual scandal. For most scientists, Dr, Ferguson’s personal misbehavior has no relevance to the validity of his models, but for politicians and for the public, it does. A lot.
You all read the story of the downfall of Professor Neil Ferguson, aka “Professor Lockdown” trashed worldwide in the media for having had his lover, Ms. Antonia Staats, visiting him during the lockdown period that he himself had recommended for everybody else. It was a blessing for tabloids and there is no doubt that Dr. Ferguson deserved much of the scorn and the ridicule that was poured on him. Yet, there are some elements in this story that make it different from an ordinary story of philandering.
Let’s review what we know: it seems that Ms. Staats and Dr. Ferguson met first over an internet site and then it was Staats who went to visit Ferguson during the lockdown period at his home in London, and the same Staats who told the story to friends who, in turn, diffused it around. Ferguson didn’t deny the media reports and he immediately apologized and resigned from his post of government advisor.
I don’t know about you, but. to me, all this looks like a trap, sounds like a trap, even smells like a trap. So, it probably was a trap. Ferguson fell head first into it and he was neatly skewered.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Will covid-19 delay peak oil?
Will covid-19 delay peak oil?
With global demand having fallen by about 29 million barrels per day from a year ago, it seems like this pandemic might delay peak oil production while the pandemic and consequent depression lasts, since so much less oil is being consumed. Since storage is getting full, many oil producers are being forced to shut down wells, since there’s nowhere to put the oil or demand for it.
Shut down wells may produce less oil after being restarted
Shutting in wells can reduce oil production when restarted, but that doesn’t happen every time. Sometimes you get lucky. More often though, the sub-surface gremlins in the reservoirs are going to get you. The net effect will likely be less oil and gas than there was before.
With prices so low and storage so full, some producers are shutting down wells. But the problem with that is it can have long term consequences, damaging the reservoir so that in the future not all of the oil can be produced (Brower 2020).
In addition to reservoir problems, especially tar sands, conventional and other wells face restart issues with the pipes, valves, separators, pumps, pipelines, older wells, and so many other technical problems that at least about 10-20% plus a loss of ability to reopen marginal projects. Depending how the game is played by the industry, the damage can be twice that, easily, especially in offshore and ultra-deep offshore wells, where methane hydrates will form immediately in seafloor pipelines and plug them. These wells could be 100 times more difficult to restart than a shale well (Patzek 2020).
Operations in the Gulf of Mexico will likely shut last, since the miles of pipelines that carry the oil along the sea floor to processing facilities on shore can clog if shut off for too long.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Global Boom, Pandemic, Crash: Is History Just Repeating Itself?
Global Boom, Pandemic, Crash: Is History Just Repeating Itself?
If Peter Turchin is right, we face the end of a 300-year cycle, as did previous far-flung empires.
The coronavirus pandemic is, among other things, a tribute to human ingenuity and our relentless pursuit of globalization, an impulse thousands of years old. Previous civilizations, from the Romans to the Mongols, traded aggressively and invaded new ecosystems. They, too, connected far-flung geographies in innovative ways. None of it, however, ended particularly well.
By trading in all manner of peoples, plants, germs and animals, these empires diligently tested the limits of globalization and its growing complexity by seeding their own disintegration.
The corona pandemic, a pretty mild affair in the scheme of things, is telling us that we are now in the middle of a historic cycle where hyper-connectivity combined with hyper-complexity could rapidly lead to decline, if not collapse.
In fact, pandemics are not black swans, but predictable and natural events that often appear like clockwork in the evolution of human empires. They trigger other crises or partner up with them.
These mass reversals often appear after periods of intense population growth and changes in population density just as an imperial adventure unknowingly begins its descent.
In the process of pruning human numbers, pandemics invariably play a significant role in the disintegration of civilizations. They reveal wealth inequalities and technical fragilities. In this regard pandemics announce both the ending and beginning of things. They can have both negative and positive effects.
Peter Turchin, a Russian historian, has long argued that civilizations expand and contract in distinct waves or what he calls “secular cycles” that last about 300 years.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Mutation! Are We Now Dealing With A More Contagious Covid-19 Strain?
Mutation! Are We Now Dealing With A More Contagious Covid-19 Strain?
The G clade of the virus may explain why certain regions have been hit harder than others.
Well, it seems we are closer to solving the mystery of why some regions of the world exhibit higher covid-19 infection rates than others.
New research is revealing that covid-19 mutated early on in the pandemic to create a more transmissive strain: the G clade, which may also be associated with a higher viral load.
The G clade was dominant in Italy, which suggests that’s why the virus hit that country so much harder than many others.
In the US, New York appears to have suffered from a high percentage of G clade cases. That’s likely why the infection rate has been much higher there than in other states.
In addition to the news about the new strain, we’re also now seeing evidence that the impact of covid-19 can linger for much longer than previously appreciated. There are reports of patients still struggling with symptoms 50 or more days after onset.
To re-iterate our oft-repeated advice: You do NOT want to get this virus if you can avoid it.
Don’t forget to get your free download of Peak Prosperity’s book Prosper!. Given its relevance to preparing for any kind of crisis, pandemic or otherwise, Chris and I are now making it available to the world for free during the covid-19 lockdown.
To download your free copy, click here.
China Warns Of Possible Armed Conflict With US Over Coronavirus Backlash
China Warns Of Possible Armed Conflict With US Over Coronavirus Backlash
An internal report presented to Chinese President Xi Jinping and other top leaders concludes that global anti-China sentiment is at a level not seen since the 1989 Tiananmen Square crackdown, and recommends preparing for a worst-case scenario of armed conflict with the United States, according to Reuters, citing people familiar with the content of the document.
The report, created by the China Institutes of Contemporary Internal Relations (CICIR) – which is affiliated with the Ministry of State Security – suggests that the wave of anti-China sentiment is led by the United States, which sees China’s rise as a global superpower as a threat to Western democracies.
One of those with knowledge of the report said it was regarded by some in the Chinese intelligence community as China’s version of the “Novikov Telegram”, a 1946 dispatch by the Soviet ambassador to Washington, Nikolai Novikov, that stressed the dangers of U.S. economic and military ambition in the wake of World War Two.
Novikov’s missive was a response to U.S. diplomat George Kennan’s “Long Telegram” from Moscow that said the Soviet Union did not see the possibility for peaceful coexistence with the West, and that containment was the best long-term strategy. –Reuters
Reuters, which hasn’t seen the paper, couldn’t determine to what extent the report’s grim outlook reflects positions held by China’s state leaders, nor how much it might influence policy. That said, it suggests Beijing is taking the threat of global backlash over the coronavirus pandemic – which Western intelligence agencies suspect originated at a Wuhan biolab which was experimenting with bat coronavirus, and had previous concerns raised over the pandemic potential of such research.
Airline transportation after the epidemic. The problem is being solved, but not the way you would have imagined
Airline transportation after the epidemic. The problem is being solved, but not the way you would have imagined
That’s how a hydrogen-powered plane could look like. Honestly, it is not very impressive: it looks more like an Elvis sighting and one may even reasonably doubt that this thing could fly. If it were easy to power planes using hydrogen, someone would be working at real prototypes rather than just these drawings.
Airlines have been on the edge of collapse for many years and for many good reasons, but the real problem, at the basis of all the others, is the need for fossil fuels. Airplanes are voracious beasts: they consume around 7% of the world’s production of fuels and fueling planes represents about 20%-30% of the costs of operating an airline. So far, most companies have survived the vagaries of the oil market, but it should be obvious that crude oil cannot last forever. In addition, there is the problem of the pollution generated by fossil fuels, especially in terms of contributing to global warming. One result is the phenomenon called “flight shame,” another headache for airline managers.
So, if you want to keep planes in the air, you need to get rid of the need for fossil fuels. And that turns out to be nearly impossible, at least for the current generation of planes. I already discussed the technical and financial aspects of alternatives to fossil fuels. Hydrogen is a good fuel for rockets, but not for civilian planes, it is a technological and financial nightmare, Biofuels can’t help: there is no way that you can step production to levels sufficient to feed the current fleet of civilian planes. Electric planes are a nice idea for small planes, but there is no way that you can build an electric equivalent of a Boeing 747.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Why Lockdowns Work
Why Lockdowns Work
There was another comment at the Automatic Earth yesterday questioning the function and wisdom of various lockdowns. I thought I’d explain this in more detail.
Ilargi if you or anyone else could explain what the exit strategy is from a lockdown I’d be interested in hearing it. As it is, this lockdown I repeat is no different than financial QE – everyone comes out weaker than they were before treatment. Financial QE covers up her problem just like lockdown does, but makes it worse in the long run. The only exit strategy I can see is to keep lockdown until a vaccine or effective treatment, neither of which are on the horizon.
If you are arguing that even healthy economies can survive indefinite closure, with intermittent re-openings I don’t know what to tell you. The suggestion is made that Sweden has a huge vested interest in understating fatalities. It is also certainly true that the rest of the world has an even greater vested interest in criticizing the Swedish approach because it demonstrates how useless the total lockdowns are. BTW the reported differences in fatalities between Sweden and the rest of Scandinavia are not statistically significant. Playing with numbers and not understanding how things may not be as they seem.
First, let’s re-establish that no lockdown would have been needed if and when politicians and scientists had done what’s in their job descriptions. That does not mean that no lockdown was called for once they did fail. Indeed, it’s the failure to act at the very beginning, say January 31, when the WHO sent out its first warning, that made lockdowns inevitable.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Will Civilization’s Response to COVID-19 Lead to a More Sustainable, Equitable World?
Will Civilization’s Response to COVID-19 Lead to a More Sustainable, Equitable World?
What better time to shift our thinking and actions away from a hyperconsumptive, inequality-widening, environmentally-detrimental era than the 50th anniversary of Earth Day.
Having been shaken to our collective core by the COVID19 pandemic, can we muster the will to make major changes in how we rebuild our systems, to truly transform how we function as a society for the betterment of Earth and her inhabitants? What cause is more just, fair, and wise? And what time is better to shift our thinking away from a hyperconsumptive, inequality-widening, environmentally-detrimental era in which we find ourselves – the Anthropocene – than the 50th anniversary of Earth Day, the 22nd of April 2020?
A proposition has been coalescing in my mind for years, but drew strength from recent essays by notable thinkers, which I’ll briefly mention for context.
Humanizing Capitalism
Meghan Kallman pleads that “Crises require a radical form of solidarity.” as she questions whether a capitalist system can address the looming threats of climate change, and more importantly prioritize social relationships above the search for wealth. Her perspectives on how these relationships germinate best at the community level are encouraging.
Darren Walker summarizes the August 2019 statement emanating from 181 CEOs of the Business Roundtable: “…leading the way toward a more equitable, humane, and democratic economic system…” (because in the U.S.) “…the three richest Americans collectively own about as much as the bottom half of the population combined…” This group is attempting to redefine the purpose of a corporation, committing to “…lead[ing] their companies for the benefit of all stakeholders – customers, employees, suppliers, communities, and shareholders.”
Nate Hagens writes that COVID-19 “exposes economic, cultural, environmental fallacies” of our existence, suggesting we all become more compassionate in our work, play, and interactions. I applaud his many suggestions for individual action.
Reallocating Resources
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Alberta’s Meat Plant Workers Share Their Fears and Anger
Alberta’s Meat Plant Workers Share Their Fears and Anger
As Cargill prepares to reopen, voices from the frontlines of Canada’s largest COVID-19 outbreak.
They fear the virus. They are concerned about the futures. They worry for their communities.
And they say neither the government nor two foreign-owned companies, which account for 70 per cent of the nation’s beef slaughtering capacity, are doing enough to ensure their safety.
They say the companies didn’t provide adequate protective gear for the people who butcher Canada’s beef until it was too late.
The Tyee interviewed five Alberta employees of two meat plants, parts of different international conglomerates. The people interviewed are members of a largely immigrant work force that speaks dozens of languages and now finds itself at the centre of the largest COVID-19 outbreak in Canada.
Those who work at the JBS meat-processing plant in Brooks wondered why it has never shut down in order to do a thorough disinfection and increase its safety measures.
Those who work at the Cargill meat-packing plant in High River said the company has lied about the protections provided, as well as compensation paid.
As one shared, “Why did this virus spread? It came from the fabrication floor where there is no airflow, and we are working elbow to elbow and there is no distancing. Where are the safety precautions? They said they did the safety precautions. No they didn’t.”
Now that worker and others fear returning to work when the Cargill plant reopens Monday. Among that plant’s employees, 921 out of 2,000 are now infected. At least seven workers are in hospital and five are in intensive care. One Cargill worker and a close contact have died.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Why You Should Oppose The Censorship Of David Icke (Hint: It’s Got Nothing To Do With Icke)
Why You Should Oppose The Censorship Of David Icke (Hint: It’s Got Nothing To Do With Icke)
Within 48 hours both Facebook and then Youtube have deleted the accounts of David Icke for posting “content that disputes the existence and transmission of Covid-19 as described by the WHO and the NHS.” Other platforms may soon fall in suit, as they did with Alex Jones in 2018.
This article is not about David Icke. I will say it again in italics for the especially dense: this article is not about David Icke. This article is about why we shouldn’t be okay with monopolistic billionaire-owned Silicon Valley tech giants with extensive ties to US government agencies controlling human communication.
I know next to nothing about David Icke, and I have done exactly zero research into his views for this article; for all I know he’s every bit the raving lunatic the narrative managers say he is. It doesn’t matter. What matters is that we’re seeing a consistent and accelerating pattern of powerful plutocratic institutions collaborating with the US-centralized empire to control what ideas people around the world are permitted to share with each other, and it’s a very unsafe trajectory. Making this conversation about Icke and his views distracts from the very important topic we need to actually focus on discussing.
“The people who want to add a censorship regime to a health crisis are more dangerous and more stupid by leaps and bounds than a president who tells people to inject disinfectant.”
https://taibbi.substack.com/p/temporary-coronavirus-censorship …The Inevitable Coronavirus Censorship Crisis is HereAs the Covid-19 crisis progresses, censorship programs advance, amid calls for China-style control of the Internettaibbi.substack.com
Journalist Matt Taibbi recently wrote an excellent essay about the dangers inherent in the increased demand we’ve been seeing for more censorship and deplatforming during the coronavirus pandemic, correctly arguing that more authoritarian control over the ideas people are allowed to discuss is vastly more dangerous than the ideas themselves.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
“The Dam Has Burst”: Why David Einhorn Thinks The Coronavirus Shock Will Lead To Soaring Inflation
“The Dam Has Burst”: Why David Einhorn Thinks The Coronavirus Shock Will Lead To Soaring Inflation
One of the bizarre aspects of the global depression resulting from the coordinated shutdown of most world economies due to the coronavius pandemic, is that we have experience a collapse in both aggregate supply and demand which, almost absurdly, has kept equilibrium prices relatively unchanged (except in the infamous case of oil where due to storage space limitations, the prompt WTI contract traded as far negative as -$40 on April 20. As a result, the biggest challenge facing economists is deciding if what comes next after the coronavirus pandemic is conquered, is inflation – as trillions in central bank and government stimulus lead to a far faster rebound in demand, or if the early surge in supply overwhelms demand and leads to a deflationary crash similar to what was seen in oil.
While the majority of economists and strategists, even contrarian types, are confident what comes next is even more deflation – and why not according to 10Y breakevens there will barely be any inflation for the next decade…
… one financial luminary who disagrees is David Einhorn who, when not feuding with Elon Musk on an almost daily basis now, believes that the economic shock from the coronavirus will turn out to be inflationary as he explains in his latest letter to investors.
But before we get into the gist of it, first we lay out his take on where we are now, and how we got here, namely the events leading to the global corona crisis, and the official response:
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
