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“We Understand The Chinese Government Has Halted Purchases Of US Treasuries”: SGH
“We Understand The Chinese Government Has Halted Purchases Of US Treasuries”: SGH On Friday, we reported that among the five “nuclear” options available to Beijing to retaliate against Trump’s latest $100BN in import tariffs, was the choice whether or not to sell US Treasuries. But what if Beijing did not want to unleash a full-blown […]
Who Is It That Wants to Buy Trillions of US Treasury’s???
Who Is It That Wants to Buy Trillions of US Treasury’s??? As of the latest Treasury update showing federal debt as of Wednesday, February 15…federal debt (red line below) jumped by an additional $50 billion from the previous day to $20.76 trillion. This is an increase of $266 billion essentially since the most recent debt ceiling passage. Of course, […]
Flying Blind, Part 2: The Destruction Of Honest Price Discovery And Its Consequences
Flying Blind, Part 2: The Destruction Of Honest Price Discovery And Its Consequences In Part 1 we noted that the real evil of Bubble Finance is not merely that it leads to bubble crashes, of which there is surely a doozy just around the bend; or that speculators get the painful deserts they fully deserve, which is coming big time, too; or even […]
What Will Rising Mortgage Rates Do to Housing Bubble 2?
What Will Rising Mortgage Rates Do to Housing Bubble 2? Oops, they’re already rising. The US government bond market has further soured this week, with Treasuries selling off across the spectrum. When bond prices fall, yields rise. For example, the two-year Treasury yield rose to 2.06% on Friday, the highest since September 2008. In the […]
As Petro-Yuan Looms, Bundesbank Adds Renminbi To Currency Reserves
As Petro-Yuan Looms, Bundesbank Adds Renminbi To Currency Reserves Just days after China’s (denied) threat to slow/stop buying US Treasuries, and just days before the launch of China’s petro-yuan futures contract, Germany’s central bank confirmed it would include China’s Renminbi in its reserves. The FT reports that Andreas Dombret, a member of Deutsche Bundesbank’s executive […]
Bond Market Smells Inflation, Begins to React
Bond Market Smells Inflation, Begins to React Inflation expectations now exceed the Fed’s target. The 10-year US Treasury yield breached 2.5% on January 9 and hasn’t looked back since, closing on Friday at 2.55%. The three year yield closed at 2.12%, the highest since October 2008. The two year yield, after breaching 2% on Friday […]
BlackRock Warns Geopolitical Risk Is Highest Since 2014’s Crimea Invasion
BlackRock Warns Geopolitical Risk Is Highest Since 2014’s Crimea Invasion Rising geopolitical risk is not automatically bad news for risk assets, but, as Richard Turnill explains, BlackRock believes a new U.S. approach to trade bears watching. The economy is expanding, equities are at new highs, and markets appear calm. What is there to worry about? […]
St. Louis Fed Promotes the Mathematically Impossible
St. Louis Fed Promotes the Mathematically Impossible It’s bad enough when economic writers are clueless about how markets work. It’s worse when Fed economists are clueless. Check out this Tweet by @StLoiusFed. View image on Twitter St. Louis Fed ✔@stlouisfed Negative interest rates may seem ludicrous, but not if they succeed in pushing people to […]
Interest Rates Starting To Bite
Interest Rates Starting To Bite We have long held that interest rates have been so low (especially real rates) that it will take some time to reach a level for them to really matter and impact markets. The 2-year yield crossing over the S&P500 divie yield this past week for the first time in the last […]
Benn Steil: The Fed Could be Tightening More Than it Realizes
BENN STEIL: THE FED COULD BE TIGHTENING MORE THAN IT REALIZES Ten years ago, before the collapse of Lehman Brothers rocked global financial markets, the Fed’s balance sheet stood at $925 billion—mostly U.S. Treasuries. After fifty-nine months of asset purchases to push down longer-term interest rates, it had ballooned to a peak of $4.5 trillion, […]
Mind the Junk—-This Ain’t Your Grandfather’s Capitalism
Mind the Junk—-This Ain’t Your Grandfather’s Capitalism The financial system is loaded with anomalies, deformations and mispricings—-outcomes which would never occur on an honest free market. For example, the junk bond yield at just 2% in Europe is now below that of the “risk-free” US treasury bond owing solely to the depredations of the ECB. Indeed, madman Draghi has […]
USA Is Now Twice As Likely To ‘Default’ Than Germany
USA Is Now Twice As Likely To ‘Default’ Than Germany While the market turmoil (stocks down a few percentage points from all-time record highs) is being pinned on various factors (from North Korea, Trump, & Cohn to terrible retailer earnings and J-Hole anxiety), we suspect the real cause of market uncertainty is starting to peak […]
Currency Armageddon? A Word about the Hated Dollar
Currency Armageddon? A Word about the Hated Dollar The “death of the dollar” will have to be rescheduled. Sharply higher yields on Treasury securities and the prospect of more rate hikes by the Fed – in a world where other major central banks are still stewing innocent bystanders in the juices of NIRP, negative yields, and […]
