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Trying To Prevent Recessions Leads To Even Worse Recessions
Trying To Prevent Recessions Leads To Even Worse Recessions Deutsche Bank strategists Jim Reid and Craig Nicol wrote a report this week that echos what I and other Austrian School economists have been saying for many years: actions taken by governments and central banks to extend business cycles and prevent recessions lead to even more severe recessions […]
In The Fed We Trust – Part 1
In The Fed We Trust – Part 1 This article is the first part of a two-part article. Due to its length and importance, we split it to help readers’ better digest the information. The purpose of the article is to define money and currency and discuss their differences and risks. It is with this […]
UNLOCKED: The Curious Case of Rising Fuel Prices and Shrinking Inflation
UNLOCKED: The Curious Case of Rising Fuel Prices and Shrinking Inflation On Friday, April 26, 2019, the market was stunned with a much stronger than expected 3.2% rate of first-quarter economic growth. Wall Street expectations were clearly off the mark, ranging from 1.3-2.3%. The media took this as a sign the economy is roaring. To […]
Why Warning About A Bubble For A Decade Is Completely Rational
Why Warning About A Bubble For A Decade Is Completely Rational In my experience as someone who warns about the development of dangerous economic bubbles (both the mid-2000s U.S. housing bubble and the post-2009 “Everything Bubble“), I have been criticized literally thousands of times as the stock market surges year after year and the economy […]
Contrarian Alert: “Is Inflation Dead?” Makes The Cover Of Businessweek
Contrarian Alert: “Is Inflation Dead?” Makes The Cover Of Businessweek In the financial world, those who subscribe to the contrarian school of thought (including myself) keep an eye out for certain cues or indications that a trend has become overcrowded and is nearing its end. Some examples of these contrarian indicators are investor sentiment indexes, fear gauges […]
The Fed’s Body Count
The Fed’s Body Count “The problem with the war (Vietnam), as it often is, are the metrics. It is a situation where if you can’t count what’s important, you make what you can count important. So, in this particular case what you could count was dead enemy bodies.” – James Willbanks, Army Advisor, General of […]
Economic Theories & Debt Driven Realities
Economic Theories & Debt Driven Realities One of the most highly debated topics over the past few months has been the rise of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT). The economic theory has been around for quite some time but was shoved into prominence recently by Congressional Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s “New Green Deal” which is heavily dependent on massive […]
Why Another 50% Correction Is Possible
Why Another 50% Correction Is Possible All of sudden….volatility. Well, that is what it seems like anyway after several years of a steady grind higher in the markets. However, despite the pickup in volatility, the breaks of previous bullish trends, and a reversal in Central Bank policy, it is still widely believed that bear markets […]
Oil Sends A “Crude Warning”
Oil Sends A “Crude Warning” As with many Americans, I am on the road with the family making the traditional holiday rounds. Of course, my family is more “The Griswolds” than “The Waltons. but even with all of the antics, comedy, and occasional drama, it is always an enjoyable time of the year. However, I did […]
Bear Market Growls As Market Remains Weak 11-16-18
Bear Market Growls As Market Remains Weak Several months ago, I penned an article about the problems with “passive indexing” and specifically the problem of the “algorithms” that are driving roughly 80% of the trading in the markets. To wit: “When the ‘robot trading algorithms’ begin to reverse (selling rallies rather than buying dips), it will […]
How The Bubbles In Stocks And Corporate Bonds Will Burst
How The Bubbles In Stocks And Corporate Bonds Will Burst As someone who has been warning heavily about dangerous bubbles in U.S. corporate bonds and stocks, people often ask me how and when I foresee these bubbles bursting. Here’s what I wrote a few months ago: To put it simply, the U.S. corporate debt bubble […]
The Economic Consequences Of Debt
The Economic Consequences Of Debt Not surprisingly, my recent article on “The Important Role Of Recessions” led to more than just a bit of debate on why “this time is different.” The running theme in the debate was that debt really isn’t an issue as long as our neighbors are willing to support continued fiscal largesse. As I […]
Kass: High Anxiety In The Markets
Kass: High Anxiety In The Markets “Brophy: I got it. I got it. I got it. [thump] Brophy: I ain’t got it.” – Mel Brooks, High Anxiety Arriving at Los Angeles International Airport, Dr. Richard Thorndyke has several odd encounters (such as a flasher impersonating a police officer, and a passing bus with a full orchestra playing inside it). Dr. Thorndyke […]
Markets Get Crash(ier)
Markets Get Crash(ier) Over the last three weeks, as interest rates surged above 3%, we explored the question of whether something had “just broken” in the market. Did Something Just Break? 10-05-18 Yes, Something Just Broke 10-12-18 Market Clings To Support – 10-19-18 As I stated last week: “This past week has been a decidedly tough […]
