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Just How Accurate Are The EIA’s Predictions?

February 14, 2016

Just How Accurate Are The EIA’s Predictions? The EIA recently published the February edition of their Short-Term Energy Outlook. If you follow this month to month, and I do, you will notice their prognostications change a little every month. And over several months those small changes can add up to some rather dramatic changes. Nevertheless, below […]

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The Pentagon’s secret pre-crime program to know your thoughts, predict your future

February 2, 2016

The Pentagon’s secret pre-crime program to know your thoughts, predict your future US military contractors are mining social media to influence your ‘cognitive behavior’ when you get angry at the state The US Department of Defense (DoD) wants contractors to mine your social media posts to develop new ways for the US government to infer […]

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Energy round-up: six predictions for 2016

January 14, 2016

Energy round-up: six predictions for 2016 Photo credit:   James Russell 2015 proved to be an interesting year for energy and climate issues both globally and in the UK. Will 2016 hold more of the same? Forecasting is a dangerous business, but here are six predictions you should keep an eye on. 1) The showdown on oil prices between […]

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2016: Oil Limits and the End of the Debt Supercycle

January 7, 2016

2016: Oil Limits and the End of the Debt Supercycle What is ahead for 2016? Most people don’t realize how tightly the following are linked: Growth in debt Growth in the economy Growth in cheap-to-extract energy supplies Inflation in the cost of producing commodities Growth in asset prices, such as the price of shares of stock […]

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Down the Ratholes of the Future

January 7, 2016

Down the Ratholes of the Future The new year now upon us has brought out the usual quota of predictions about what 2016 has in store, and I propose as usual to make my own contribution to that theme.  I’ve noted more than once in the past that people who make predictions about the future really […]

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My Prescription for 2016: Collapse Early and Often

January 5, 2016

My Prescription for 2016: Collapse Early and Often Tony Futura We are in the time of year when most sensible animals living in northerly climates are hibernating in burrows and hollow tree trunks, while the somewhat less sensible pundits make their predictions for the coming year. My prediction is always the same—things will go on […]

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Some long term climate scenarios

December 15, 2015

Some long term climate scenarios Scenarios are not predictions, just ways of describing possible futures; useful in order to be prepared for unexpected events. The only rule in scenario building is that the assumptions should not be too improbable; such as involving time machines. And, yet, it seems that in some cases involving climate projections, time […]

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The Trouble with the Future

December 12, 2015

The Trouble with the Future  Feeeeeelings PARIS – Yesterday, we got so much mail on our recent issue on Donald Trump we couldn’t read it all. Pro… con… off the wall – readers’ sentiments were all over the place. But a clever reader mercifully brought the discussion to an end with this quote from fellow Baltimorean H.L. Mencken: “As […]

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The FOMC Decision – Studying the Flight of Birds and Gold

June 21, 2015

The FOMC Decision – Studying the Flight of Birds and Gold Federal Open Yawn Committee puts Kremlinologists all over the World to Sleep … The Fed’s monetary policy statement delivered on Wednesday was the non-surprise/yawn-inducer of the year. Readers can take a look at the trusty WSJ statement tracker, which reveals that apart from a few […]

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U.S. Department of Energy: Our forecasts aren’t really forecasts (or are they?)

January 18, 2015

U.S. Department of Energy: Our forecasts aren’t really forecasts (or are they?) Put this in the category of things that can’t be true, but that are nevertheless affirmed with a straight face: The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the statistical arm of the U.S. Department of Energy, does not issue forecasts, at least not long […]

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