Creditors have better memories than debtors. This elegant line was coined by Benjamin Franklin—political philosopher, prolific writer, humorist and American ambassador to France. Mr. Franklin also was one of the Founding Fathers of the United States of America. A true polymath and a man of great common sense.
By comparison, Ottawa had a $5.2-billion surplus during the same April-to-July stretch last year, according to the Finance Department’s monthly fiscal monitor.
This year in July alone, the report said the government books showed a deficit of $1.8 billion — down from a $200-million surplus a year earlier. The July data included a $1.4-billion increase in program expenses, an $800-million decline in revenues and a $200-million decrease in public-debt charges.
Between April and July, the numbers show federal revenues were $2.3 billion lower compared with last year, while program expenses were $6.5 billion higher. The government’s debt-servicing costs were $800 million lower over the time period, mostly because of the impacts of weaker inflation on bonds and a lower average interest rate.
Earlier this week, the federal budget watchdog said government spending under the Liberal government over the first three months of the fiscal year reached its highest mark in at least six years.
Higher program spending
On Friday, the fiscal monitor said the bulk of the added spending between April and July was due to a $3.9-billion increase in direct program expenses compared with a year ago — a spike of 11.9 per cent.
A closer look at the increase showed that transfer payments were up $2 billion, or 21 per cent. Finance said the bigger number was a reflection of year-over-year differences in the timing of the payments and an increase in disaster assistance.
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CAMBRIDGE – More than a decade ago, I undertook a study, together with Graciela Kaminsky of George Washington University and Carlos Végh, now the World Bank’s chief economist for Latin America and the Caribbean, examining more than 100 countries’ fiscal policies for much of the postwar era. We concluded that advanced economies’ fiscal policies tended to be either independent of the business cycle (acyclical) or to lean in the opposite direction (countercyclical). Built-in stabilizers, like unemployment insurance, are part of the story, but government outlays also worked to smooth the economic cycle.
The benefit of countercyclical policies is that government debt as a share of GDP falls during good times. That provides fiscal space when recessions materialize, without jeopardizing long-run debt sustainability.1
By contrast, in most emerging-market economies, fiscal policy was procyclical: government spending increased when the economy was approaching full employment. This tendency leaves countries poorly positioned to inject stimulus when bad times come again. In fact, it sets the stage for dreaded austerity measures that make bad times worse.
Following its admission to the eurozone, Greece convincingly demonstrated that an advanced economy can be just as procyclical as any emerging market. During a decade of prosperity, with output close to potential most of the time, government spending outpaced growth, and government debt ballooned. Perhaps policymakers presumed that saving for a rainy day is unnecessary if this time is different and perpetual sunshine is the new normal.
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