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Tag Archives: Daniel Lacalle
Lagarde, the ECB and the next crisis
Lagarde, the ECB and the next crisis The appointment of Christine Lagarde as president of the ECB has been greeted with euphoria by financial markets. That reaction in itself should be a warning signal. When risky assets soar in the middle of a huge bubble due to a central bank appointment, the supervising entity should be concerned.Lagarde is […]
The ECB’s Quantitative Easing was a Failure–Here is What it Actually Did
THE ECB’S QUANTITATIVE EASING WAS A FAILURE — HERE IS WHAT IT ACTUALLY DID The main reason why the ECB quantitative easing program has failed is that it started from a wrong diagnosis of the eurozone’s problem. That the European problem was a demand and liquidity issue, not due to years of excess. The ECB […]
The Eurozone Banks’ Trillion Timebomb
The Eurozone Banks’ Trillion Timebomb Eurozone banks have fallen dramatically in the stock market despite the results of the stress tests carried out by the ECB, and the EU Banks Index is down 25% on the year despite year-long bullish recommendations from almost every broker. This should not surprise anyone because we have seen in […]
Market crash? Another red card for the economy
Market crash? Another red card for the economy A few months ago I wrote this article at the World Economic Forum called “A Yellow Card For The Global Economy“. It tried to serve as a warning on the rising imbalances of the emerging and leading economies. Unfortunately, since then, those imbalances have continued to rise […]
Spain: IMF Highlights Rising Risks
Spain: IMF Highlights Rising Risks The International Monetary Fund can be criticized for many things, but its analysis of countries’ debt risk tends to be worth a read. In this case, the International Monetary Fund has once again warned Spain of the risk of reversing reforms and increasing imbalances. It asks to deepen in the labor reform […]
The Synchronized Growth Fallacy (Interview at Real Vision)
The Synchronized Growth Fallacy (Interview at Real Vision) Please find the complete interview here. The fallacy of synchronized growth. We have been hearing from international bodies, from central banks that we were living in a synchronized growth territory. That we were seeing developed markets grow faster than what was typical while emerging markets were also growing in […]
Is The Oil Burden A Rising Problem?
Is The Oil Burden A Rising Problem? While markets become increasingly bullish, oil prices are close to a “warning zone” where the barrel could be one -if not the only- catalyst of a major slowdown. In my book “Escape from the Central Bank Trap”, I explain the concept of the “Oil Burden”. It is the […]
The Eurozone’s Coming Debt Crisis
The Eurozone’s Coming Debt Crisis The European Central bank has signaled the end of its asset purchase program and a possible rate hike before 2019. After more than 2 trillion euro of purchases and zero interest rate policy, it is overdue. The massive quantitative easing program has generated very significant imbalances and the risks outweigh […]
After Italy… Spain Risk Soars
After Italy… Spain Risk Soars Political risk in Europe was largely ignored in international markets because of the mirage of the so-called “Macron effect”. The ECB’s massive quantitative easing program and a perception that everything was different this time in Europe added to the illusion of growth and stability. However, a storm was brewing and […]
Forget the Yuan: King Dollar is Here to Stay
Forget the Yuan: King Dollar is Here to Stay Many believe deficit spending will kill the US dollar as a reserve currency and the yuan will take over. They are wrong. Economist Daniel Lacalle asks Can China Really Kill The US Dollar Supremacy? >Why China Will Fail to Dethrone the US Dollar First, because it […]
Is There a Way Out of the ECB’s Trap?
IS THERE ANY WAY OUT OF THE ECB’S TRAP? The ECB faces the Devil’s Alternative that Frederick Forsyth mentioned in one of his books. All options are potentially riskly. Mario Draghi knows that maintaining the so-called stimuli involves more risks than benefits, but also knows that eliminating them could make the eurozone deck of cards collapse. […]
Is There Any Way Out of the ECB’s Trap?
Is There Any Way Out of the ECB’s Trap? The ECB faces the Devil’s Alternative that Frederick Forsyth mentioned in one of his books. All options are potentially riskly. Mario Draghi knows that maintaining the so-called stimuli involves more risks than benefits, but also knows that eliminating them could make the eurozone deck of cards collapse. Despite […]
