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We have the most sophisticated and diverse client base than probably any institution covering more than 100 countries. Our business has been constructed upon one bedrock foundation – unbiased computer analysis. These forecasts are NEVER my personal opinion. There are plenty of people who seek to argue but fail to understand it is NOT ME! Just because someone claims to be a scientist and states for or against Global Warming, really does not add up to a lot for just as when you go visit a doctor, they always tell you to get a second “opinion” because that is all you are getting.

Previously, I have reported that NASA confirmed we are going into a cooling period – not warming. They have put out a forecast of declining sunspot activity. Now NASA has come out confirming what our computer has been forecasting. They have reported that as the sun is experiencing a rapid decline in sunspots, it is also dimming in brightness or energy output. NASA’s Spaceweather station has recorded during 2017, 96 days (27%) of observing the sun have been completely absent of sunspots.

While NASA has now confirmed that the outer atmosphere is getting cooler. In fact, one of the top NASA scientists has broken camp and warned that the surface temperature of the sun has collapsed so much, he fears a new Ice Age is upon us. Meanwhile, this has been the COLDEST Thanksgiving in 150 years! Interestingly, however, is that this sudden sharp decline in the energy output of the sun coincided with the 2015.75 turning point of the Economic Confidence Model.

I have previously warned that if this trend continues during the next winter, then we have exceeded any short-term reactionary trend and the weather appears poised to continue to get colder going into the distant future.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Why do Cycles Work?

December 28, 2018

Why do Cycles Work?

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; Your analysis is really remarkable. When the Dow was making new highs in October you said it was not breaking out. Then you said it would correct to retest the monthly support. You even warned that the bulk of the decline was always before the holiday as fears would grow for what would happen after the market reopened. You always get the highs and you even named the day of the low this week the week before. How can your arrays do this? I know that they do. My question is have you put any effort into discovering why cycles work in the first place?

ANSWER: That is a question I get often and it seems to me to be up there with is there God and what is the meaning of life? All I can say is the foundation of EVERYTHING is a cycle. Here is how sound travels known as the Doppler effect.

Sunlight also travels in waves. Change the frequency and you get a different effect. There is a cycle to absolutely everything around us. The Arrays are composed of a correlation of 72 individual models. Then there is a global correlation to the frequencies of all other markets. So there is not a single cycle that you can reverse-engineer from an array. It just does not work that way. We simply do cycles differently than most people in the cyclical analysis arena.

So why do they work? Perhaps that is just the key to the universe itself. The earth travels around the universe and reaches the same spot once every 25,800 years. We also are born, we live, and then we die – the cycle of life. Then at the core of everything lies the fractal design within nature.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Clash between Catastrophe and Uniformity – The Global Warming Conspiracy

December 3, 2018

Clash between Catastrophe and Uniformity – The Global Warming Conspiracy

Woolly Rhinoceros

Climate Change has existed throughout the history of our planet. When a Wool;y Rino was discovered frozen in Siberia intact back in 1774, that is the event that shook the scientific community. I have called this the Clash between Catastrophe and Uniformity which has produced an emotional issue corrupting scientific research for centuries as people try to create research that supports what they want to believe rather than what actually takes place. The idea that systems just collapse in a catastrophic manner can be disquieting to say the least. For this reason, uniformitarianism soothes the senses and brings order to the future dominated by uncertainty. All the analysis put out by the Global Warming conspiracy is simply a linear progression that projects a warming trend without any diversion – whereas no such trend can ever be identified in physics. This always ignores nature and the cyclical aspect of everything around us.

Yet, these two clashing schools of thought that lie at the core of just about everything from the Big Bang to Charles Darwin’s (1809-1882) Theory of Evolution, began with the discovery first in 1772 near Vilui, Siberia of an intact frozen Woolly Rhinoceros followed by the more famous discovery of a frozen Mammoth in 1787. You may be shocked, but these discoveries of frozen animals with grass still in their stomach, set in motion these two schools of thought since the evidence implied you could be eating lunch and suddenly find yourself frozen to be discovered by posterity.

Siberian Unicorn

There was yet a third animal known as the Siberian Unicorn which also roamed the region and is extinct today.In a recent study of Siberian Unicorn bone specimens were dated, which confirmed that the species actually survived until perhaps as late as 35,000 years ago. What killed it off was not humans, but Climate Change.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Not Waving But Drowning–Stocks, Debt and Inflation?

October 30, 2018

NOT WAVING BUT DROWNING – STOCKS, DEBT AND INFLATION?

The US stock market is close to being in a corrective phase -10% off its highs
Global debt has passed $63trln – well above the levels on 2007
Interest rates are still historically low, especially given the point in the economic cycle
Predictions of a bear-market may be premature, but the headwinds are building

The recent decline in the US stock market, after the longest bull-market in history, has prompted many commentators to focus on the negative factors which could sow the seeds of the next recession. Among the main concerns is the inexorable rise in debt since the great financial recession (GFR) of 2008. According to May 2018 data from the IMF, global debt now stands at $63trln, with emerging economy debt expansion, over the last decade, more than offsetting the marking time among developed nations. The IMF – Global Debt Database: Methodology and Sources WP/18/111 – looks at the topic in more detail.

The title of this week’s Macro letter comes from the poet Stevie Smith: –

I was much further out than you thought

And not waving but drowning.

It seems an appropriate metaphor for valuation and leverage in asset markets. In 2013 Thomas Pickety published ‘Capital in the 21^st Century’ in which he observed that income inequality was rising due to the higher return on unearned income relative to labour. He and his co-authors gathering together one of the longest historical data-set on interest rates and wages – an incredible achievement. Their conclusion was that the average return on capital had been roughly 5% over the very long run.

This is not the place to argue about the pros and cons of Pickety’s conclusions, suffice to say that, during the last 50 years, inflation indices have tended to understate what most of us regard as our own personal inflation rate, whilst the yield offered by government bonds has been insufficient to match the increase in our cost of living.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Uncertainty is the Mother of Volatility

September 21, 2018

Uncertainty is the Mother of Volatility

QUESTION: Well you called this year the political year from hell. You got that one right again. Between trying to figure out the politics in the US, we have Britain in turmoil and Italy trying to figure out if they should stay or go. Hungary becoming more defiant and Sweden swinging to the right. You are the best at forecasting this sort of crazy stuff. You got BREXIT right and Trump’s victory. I can see your model looks at the economics and predicts a response that becomes political change. So what does this all mean?

ANSWER: Regardless of your political persuasion be it for or against any of these political issues, the importance is really the impact upon CONFIDENCE. If you are for or against Trump, we still have one thing in common. We just want stability and some sense of the future to bank on. For example, if Trump were to go down, the impact upon the world market could be very dramatic and how we then stage ourselves to survive this type of financial chaos is critical. It is the same situation in Europe. If Italy pulls the cord to get out, the Euro cannot survive. What I hear from Behind the Curtain is that the ECB may be forced to cut its bond purchases by 50% and there are even those demanding Quantitative Easing MUST end by the end of the year. Draghi has DESTROYED the bond markets in Europe. Stopping QE will result in interest rates going up dramatically.

As I have said, Trump is the Counter-Trend or FALSE move. I fear what comes afterward be it now or in 2020.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

When Does This Travesty of a Mockery of a Sham Finally End?

September 21, 2018

When Does This Travesty of a Mockery of a Sham Finally End?

Credit bubbles are not engines of sustainable employment, they are only engines of malinvestment and wealth destruction on a grand scale.

We all know the Status Quo’s response to the global financial meltdown of 2008 has been a travesty of a mockery of a sham–smoke and mirrors, flimsy facades of “recovery,” simulacrum “reforms,” serial bubble-blowing and politically expedient can-kicking, all based on borrowing and printing trillions of dollars, yen, euros and yuan, quatloos, etc.

So when will the travesty of a mockery of a sham finally come to an end? Probably around 2022-25, with a few global crises and “saves” along the way to break up the monotony of devolution. The foundation of this forecast is this chart I prepared back in 2008 (below).

This is of course only a selection of cycles; many more may be active but these four give us a flavor of the confluence of crises ahead.

Cycles are not laws of Nature, of course; they are only records of previous periods of growth/excess/depletion/collapse, not predictions per se. Nonetheless their repetition reflects the systemic dynamic of growth, crisis and collapse, and so the study of cycles is instructive even though we stipulate they are not predictive.

What is predictable is the way systems tend to follow an S-curve of rapid growth with then tops out in excess, stagnates in depletion and then devolves or implodes. We can see all sorts of things topping out and entering depletion/collapse: financialization, the Savior State, Chinese credit expansion, oil production, student loan debt and so on.

Since each mechanism that burns out or implodes tends to be replaced with some other mechanism, this creates the recurring cycle of expansion / excess / depletion / collapse.

I plotted four long-wave cycles in the first chart:

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

2016-18 Big Chill – NASA Confirms Global Cooling?

September 16, 2018

2016-18 Big Chill – NASA Confirms Global Cooling?

What I find really distasteful is how the media is so corrupt that all they want to do these days is to manipulate us into mindless drones. All we hear is Global Warming and they seem to be paid to push this just as they have done in Canada to tax each house $1,000+ to solve Global Warming? It should come as no surprise that the very same news source they have used for their Global Warming pitch has reported the greatest global two-year cooling event of the last century just occurred. Their data from February 2016 to February 2018 showed that the global average temperatures declined 0.56°C. The last two-year decline was 1982-1984 with a drop of 0.47°C, which took place during their favorite stint to justify global warming era. (see NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (dataset accessed 2018-04-11 at https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/).

Then we have the Global Warming crowd trying to dismiss the Big Chill claiming it is really Global Warming causing an increase in volatility of temperatures. Here we go again with FAKE NEWS data. The global temperatures are by no means becoming more volatile and if you run the data through a standard measurement we use in markets to gauge volatility, you are immediately confronted with the monthly global average temperatures since 2000 is only about 65% of what it was from 1880 to 1999. They simply refuse to just accept that there are cycles to EVERYTHING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Meanwhile, in South Australia has seen temperatures plunge 10 degrees making this the coldest September morning in 23 years and coldest morning this late in the year in more than 50 years of records. This corresponds to the snow in Africa confusing the animals completely. It would be nice if the news just reported the news for perhaps we just might prepare like Joseph warned the Pharaoh. With all this FAKE NEWS, they may with hindsight be responsible for the deaths of millions if we have a famine without preparation.

Ray Dalio Warns ‘History Repeats’ – Understanding Big Debt Crises, Part 1

September 10, 2018

Ray Dalio Warns ‘History Repeats’ – Understanding Big Debt Crises, Part 1

Ten years ago this month, the world’s financial system nearly ground to a halt. It was a dramatic and pivotal time, which has had lasting effects on many people’s lives. But, as the founder of the world’s largest hedge fund, Bridgewater’s Ray Dalio, notes, it was also something that has happened many times in history and will happen many times in the future.

Authored by Ray Dalio via LinkedIn.com,

As you know, I believe that everything happens over and over again and that by looking at those things happening many times, one can see the patterns and understand the cause-effect relationships to develop principles for dealing with them. Prior to 2008, I had studied these relationships for debt crises with my colleagues at Bridgewater, and because we understood these relationships, we were able to navigate the crisis well when many others struggled.

Today I am sharing our understanding of how debt crises work and how to navigate them well in a new book called “A Template for Understanding Big Debt Crises.”

I am making it available for free because I am now at a stage of life where what’s most important to me is to pass along the principles that have helped me. My hope is that sharing this template will reduce the chances of big debt crises happening and help them be better managed in the future.

The template comes in three parts.

The first explains the template for understanding how debt cycles work and provides principles for dealing with them well.

In the second, I look at how three big debt crises worked in depth – the 2008 financial crisis, the US Great Depression of the 1930s, and Germany’s inflationary depression of the 1920s.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Cyclical Synchronization & the Global Economy Make Manipulation Impossible

September 1, 2018

Cyclical Synchronization & the Global Economy Make Manipulation Impossible

A metronome is an instrument to measure the time and that the musicians use for their work. One of the most curious phenomena is observed when different metronomes that have a different frequency between themselves end up synchronizing perfectly. This symbolizes what I find so fascinating in the world economy. No nation stands alone. This is why even contagions appear in the world economy. However, it also makes my point that politicians can promise whatever to get elected, but they are indeed powerless to separate a nation from a global synchronize.

Below is another fascinating experiment with wave motion and frequencies. There is just a lot more behind the curtain than people realize and despite all the conspiracy theories, it is IMPOSSIBLE to manipulate anything and alter its trend. The best someone can do is move in within the range of “noise” but it cannot adopt a counter-trend move to the synchronization. The proof of this statement is the failure of Communism as well as Keynesianism. Any attempt to return to a fixed exchange rate will always fail for the same reason. You cannot eliminate the business cycle.

Climate Change is Real – Do Droughts Last 8.6 Years?

July 27, 2018

Climate Change is Real – Do Droughts Last 8.6 Years?

It is time to begin to really investigate Climate Change for what our computer is forecasting is like a dramatic rise in volatility or a Panic Cycle to be more accurate. What does that mean? We are going to experience extremes on both sides. You will see record temperature in the summer of 100+ F and in the winter, bitterly cold freezing. The admixture of these types of trends plays hell with crops. We are looking at severe droughts brewing around the world. In Australia, we are looking at drought conditions that match the ‘Federation drought‘ which took place during the late 1880s and early 1890s. This also contributed to the rise in socialism for agriculture was the bulk of employment and droughts also terminated jobs.

The Federation drought was a major drought in the outback areas of New South Wales, Queensland, Victoria and South Australia killed many animals. There was a major loss of vegetative cover that led to erosion and a dust bowl. Many native edible plant species vanished with devastating consequences. Between 1895 and 1903 there was a major drought that impacted most of the country. They came to name it the ‘Federation drought‘ which lasted interestingly 8.6 years. This event of nature is what forced many to seek employment in the Industrial Revolution and abandon farming.

The American Dust Bowl also became known as “the Dirty Thirties” which began in 1930. This too had devasting consequences for agriculture and sparked protectionism which was centered on agriculture – not manufacture. Regular rainfall did not return to the region until the end of 1939, which finally brought the Dust Bowl years to a close. The severe drought hit the Midwest and Southern Great Plains during 1930. This resulted in major dust storms that began the following year in 1931 coinciding with the Sovereign Debt Crisis. By 1934, an estimated 35 million acres of formerly cultivated land had been rendered completely useless for farming. Another 125 million acres was rapidly losing its topsoil. Once again, we have a period of 8.6 years.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

2032 – How Hard Do We Fall?

June 22, 2018

2032 – How Hard Do We Fall?

QUESTION: Hi Martin,

First, I’d like to offer my condolences on your mother’s passing. It feels to me that you must take great satisfaction in the fact that she must have been very proud of your accomplishments, and what you are trying to do for the average person. To me, that is the ultimate goal of a child; in thanking their parents for everything they have done.

Concerning the blog entry of “Crash & Burn & The Sixth Wave”, you write that it all depends upon if we begin the process in 2021. My interpretation – having followed you for years now – is that the people must rise up and push back against higher taxation, and demand reform and/or it could hinge on the Euro breaking apart, which provides the path to follow for the rest of us.

I believe you meant that if the people just acquiesce and do nothing – like in 2008, then those in power continue to run the economy for their benefit, causing the social fabric to continue to be torn apart between 2021-2032, (which means continued record low birth rates, low productivity, record low levels of capex, record suicide rates, etc) until it finally crumbles by 2032, leading to civil unrest. Have I got this right?

Thanks again for everything that you do.

Danny

ANSWER: We have to understand that this will be the third such sequence of the Sixth Wave. At the end of the first sequence, we have civilization going into a Dark Age. That also coincided with the energy output of the sun declining and the massive volcanic eruption of Thera (Santorini), which ended the Minoan culture. That is when Mycenae invaded as well as the conquest of Troy.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The 8.6-Year Frequency is Within Nature

May 25, 2018

The 8.6-Year Frequency is Within Nature

QUESTION: You have noticed that the 8.6-year frequency even allowed you to see that volcanic eruptions would begin in 2018. Are there other examples from history where you have found this to also be true or was Hawaii just unique?

ANSWER: Oh, there are plenty of examples. Let’s take one of the most famous volcanic eruptions in history – Vesusius. Everybody has heard of Pompeii which was destroyed by the eruption of August 24th, 79AD. That eruption was so violent, it hurled stone and ash 20,000 meters (65,000+ feet) into the sky which then came down and buried Pompeii and Herculaneum. There is even a current song out on the destruction of Pompeii by Bastille.

However, there was a major earthquake 17.2 years before (2 x 8.6) that took place in 62AD which was devastating and also produced a tsunami. On February 5th, 62 AD a powerful earthquake that was probably a 7.5+ in magnitude occurred, with the epicenter at Pompeii the prelude to the eruption. The Latin adviser to Emperor Nero (54-68AD) Seneca the Younger wrote a description of the event. Sheep died from falling rocks and statues were toppled. He even said some people lost their minds and wandered around in their madness.

This earthquake was as significant and 1906 San Francisco earthquake which destroyed much of the city. Like the 1906 San Francisco Earthquake led to the Financial Panic of 1907, which inspired the creation of the Federal Reserve by 1913 almost 8 years following that disaster, we see similar reforms in Rome which also included a monetary system reform.

Pompeii at the time had a population of at least 20,000 and was a tightly packed city which was not particularly favorable for surviving earthquakes. Much of the city was constructed from bricks which tend to crumble easily. Seneca reported that while Pompeii was severely damaged, Herculaneum had far less damage while Naples was barely touched. He described the earthquake in vivid terms:

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Russia’s Wheat Crop Fails?

April 30, 2018

Russia’s Wheat Crop Fails?

The weather turned very cold this year as our computer has been forecasting. The importance of our model’s forecasts lies in determining what will be the next cycle focus. Each cycle tends to shift from one to the next sector. While we still risk a strong dollar rally into 2020 creating the economic recession through deflation as assets decline, the next 8.6-year cycle appears to be setting up to be a commodity cycle. As the climate changes to bitter cold, we have warned this is when FAMINE and DISEASE rise. The flu season is always when it turns cold – not warm.

It is important to keep an eye on the climate cycle and prepare for the next real bull market. This year, the wheat crop in Russia has failed because of the bitter cold with even April coming in as the coldest in more than 140 years. The people who want to believe in global warming are so enamored with this idea mixing up pollution with climate change that they fail to see the trend coming. As crops fail with colder winters, food supplies will decline and prices will rise. So look for the next 8.6-year Economic Confidence Model Wave to bring higher prices in food.

The Genie’s Out of the Bottle: Eight Defining Trends Are Reversing

April 11, 2018

The Genie’s Out of the Bottle: Eight Defining Trends Are Reversing

Though the Powers That Be will attempt to placate or suppress the Revolt of the Powerless, the genies of political disunity and social disorder cannot be put back in the bottle.

The saying “the worm has turned” refers to the moment when the downtrodden have finally had enough, and turn on their powerful oppressors.The worms have finally turned against the privileged elites — who have benefited so greatly from globalization, corruption, central bank stimulus and the profiteering of state-enforced cartels. It doesn’t matter as much as the punditry assumes whether they are turning Left or Right; the important thing is that the powerless have finally started challenging their privileged overlords.

Though the Powers That Be will attempt to placate or suppress the Revolt of the Powerless, the genies of political disunity and social disorder cannot be put back in the bottle. It took a generation of rising inequality, corruption and the erosion of opportunity to create a society of the protected (the haves) and the unprotected (the have-nots), and rubber-stamping more regulations and distributing Universal Basic Income (UBI) will not rebalance a system that is irrevocably out of balance.

But the rise of resistance, as yet nascent, is only half the story: economic trends andcycles are turning as well, and even if the worms remain passively underground, these reversals will disrupt the status quo. The dominant narrative–the rightness, goodness and sustainability of endless growth of consumption and debt–will unravel, and the internal contradictions of this New Gilded Age (widening wealth/income/power inequality) will finally burst through the thin façade of stability that’s been patched together over the past nine years of “recovery.”

Eight Key Trends/Cycles Are Turning

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Wheat & the Drought Cycle

April 2, 2018

Wheat & the Drought Cycle

QUESTION: Interesting that $1.3T US spending bill was enacted on March 23, 2018, exactly 31.459 years after passage of US Tax Reform Act of 1986:

Also, the 86 year cycle in drought conditions in the midwest US seems to approach – is this why Marty thinks wheat will bottom this year?

The below Wikipedia link mentions a “short drought” in 1890 in the US Great Plains, and then a dust storm on November 11, 1933, in South Dakota (43 years later). Wikipedia also mentions that the US Great Plains entered an unusually dry era in the summer of 1930 (a little more than 86 years ago), with droughts coming in 1934, 1936 and 1939-1940.

Kansas is having drought conditions currently:

Poor winter wheat condition worrying Kansas farmers

I wonder if this is the year to go long wheat, especially since Marty forecast a bottom for this year?

Best,
J

ANSWER: Here is a chart of Wheat from 1259 to 2017 with the currency converted to dollars from British pounds using the conversion rate at the beginning of the US dollar extending it back in time. Here we can see the overall trend. Yes, there is an influence with respect to weather. However, the Dust Bowl was a local event.

What our computer is warning about begins next year with a Directional Change in Wheat. This cycle appears to be impacted by (1) significant climate change, and (2) the War Cycle. The combination of both is pointing to a bull market in nominal dollar terms.

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