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Rotting Vegetables

“As long as you’re green, you’re growing. As soon as you’re ripe, you start to rot,” once remarked Ray Kroc, mastermind of the McDonald’s franchise empire.

At the moment, no truer words can be spoken for China’s ripe economy. The Middle Kingdom’s 30-year economic boom is being overcome with the unpleasant odor that befalls rotting vegetables. What’s more, there’s no way to reverse it.

Photo credit: fmh

Economic activity in China is stalling out. All of the sudden, the mistakes that were hidden by a growing economy are surfacing en masse. Excess capacity is turning up in all corners of the economy and no one knows what to do about it.

Each day, it seems, new rot comes to bear upon Beijing’s central planners. Somehow the miracle workers have lost their hot hand. A slowing economy, falling stock market, exodus of wealth, and weakening currency are not conforming to the graphs and statistics reported in the latest blueprint for the planned economy.

How could it be that the professional politicians, who’d sparkled with genius all these years, so grossly missed their targets? Aren’t the talented men, who’d lorded over a contrived capitalism all these years, capable of fixing this? Perhaps these are the wrong questions to be asking.

China’s Politburo – from left to right, Zhang Gaoli, Liu Yunshan, Zhang Dejiang, president Xi Jinping, prime minister Li Keqiang, Yu Zhengsheng, Wang Qishan (Wang is running Xi’s anti-corruption effort. If you want to find him, go to Zhongnanhai and ask for Wang’s wing).

Photo credit: Carlos Barria / Reuters

Individual Preferences

Simply put, an economy cannot be executed by a central government to fulfill the objectives of a five year plan. At times this may appear to be so. But these instances are mere coincidence…not the result of an erudite centralized mastery.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Chasing the Wild Goose in Davos

January 22, 2016

Chasing the Wild Goose in Davos

Despite the reformers endless efforts to encircle mankind, some persist beyond the broad extent of their casted net. In the backwaters of the new Republic, for instance, the distant rumble and flicker of Saturday night hootenannies still befall yonder the mighty oak groves.

In defiance of all things good and proper, the unconsecrated gather under the pale moonlight and jig step to zydeco washboard rhythms while downing tipples of corn syrup and fermented grain. These knees-ups certify that, even in this era of big government, there remain places in the lower forty-eight where freedom reigns.

Similarly, the backwoods of the old world, rare as they may be, have not been entirely defamed. Though old world songs are more rigid – and drinks more dry – there are still places where people come together with gusto, and without interference, to dance the polka around the maypole.

Across the planet, no doubt, there are still pockets of liberty where individuals can lawfully expel into toilet bowls that use more than 1.28 gallons per flush. These places are uniquely exceptional with their own distinct rhyme. But, in common, they’re all places where the air smells sweet, the water flows clean, and the people can hold their chin up.

Davos, Switzerland, located along Landwasser River, in the Swiss Alps, should be one of those places. But, alas, it is not. Sadly, for one week each year, corporate, political and academic reformers debase the wealthy enclave and ski resort for their annual hootenanny…the World Economic Forum.

Improving the State of the World

This week the big gathering went down. Although we didn’t receive an invitation this year – again – we won’t let that stop us from offering some reflections.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Do As You’re Told! – The Case For Social Engineering

January 15, 2016

Do As You’re Told! – The Case For Social Engineering

Wherever we turn we are confronted with politicians, political pundits, television talking heads, and editorial page commentators, all of whom offer an array of plans, programs, and projects that will solve the problems of the world – if only government is given the power and authority to remake society in the design proposed.

Even many of those who claim to be suspicious of “big government” and the Washington beltway powers-that-be, invariably offer their own versions of plans, programs, and projects they assert are compatible with or complementary to a free society.

The differences too often boil down simply to matters of how the proposer wants to use government to remake or modify people and society. The idea that people should or could be left alone to design, undertake and manage their own plans and interactions with others is sometimes given lip service, but never entirely advocated or proposed in practice.

In this sense, all those participating in contemporary politics are advocates of social engineering, that is, the modifying or remaking of part or all of society according to an imposed plan or set of plans.

The idea that such an approach to social matters is inconsistent with both individual liberty and any proper functioning of a free society is beyond the pale of political and policy discourse. We live in a time of piecemeal planning and incremental interventionism.

The Reasonableness of Individual Planning

It is worthwhile, perhaps, to question this “spirit of the times,” and to do so in the context of marking an anniversary. Slightly over 70 years ago, on December 17, 1945, the Austrian economist (and much later economics Nobel Prize winner), Friedrich A. Hayek, delivered a lecture at University College in Dublin, Ireland on, “Individualism: True and False.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

society/#sthash.OmWpZU8j.dpuf

Stock Market Suffers Worst Start to the Year Ever – What Does it Mean?

January 12, 2016

Stock Market Suffers Worst Start to the Year Ever – What Does it Mean?

From December 30 to the end of the first week trading week of January, the DJIA has declined by roughly 7.7% (approx. 1,370 points) and the SPX by roughly 7.6% (approx. 160 points). This was nothing compared to the mini-crash suffered by China’s stock market early this year, which continued this morning with the Shanghai Composite (SSEC) declining by another 5.33%. The SSEC has put in an interim peak at approx. 3684 on December 23 and has since then fallen by slightly less than 670 points, or about 18%. Most of the decline occurred in the first week of January.

S&P 500 Index, daily. The year has begun with a big sell-off in stock markets around the world – click to enlarge.

Although the sell-off in the US stock market was comparatively mild, it still ended up as the worst first trading week of January in history. Had January started out on a positive note, the mainstream financial media would have been full of reminders of how bullish a strong showing in the first week of January was, and what a good omen it represented for the rest of the year. Instead they felt compelled to tell us why a weak start to the year should be ignored.

The contortions went as far as one analyst informing us last week that the sell-off was actually happening “in a parallel universe”. As our friend Michael Pollaro has pointed out to us, central planning worshiper Steve Liesman told CNBC viewers last week that the terrible trade numbers (both imports and exports kept declining) were actually a positive, because they would “subtract less from GDP” – as imports have declined at an even faster pace than exports. Such unvarnished nonsense can only spring from the fevered minds of Keynesians and Mercantilists.

2-US exports and imports …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Central Bank Money Printing—-The Rotten Philosophy Beneath

January 5, 2016

Central Bank Money Printing—-The Rotten Philosophy Beneath

If advocates of freedom were to make up a list of New Year’s resolutions for 2016, one of the most important items should be ending government’s monopoly control over money. In a free society, people in the marketplace should decide what they wish to use as money, not the government.

For more than two hundred years, practically all of even the most free market advocates have assumed that money and banking were different from other types of goods and markets. From Adam Smith to Milton Friedman, the presumption has been that competitive markets and free consumer choice are far better than government control and planning – except in the realm of money and financial intermediation.

This belief has been taken to the extreme over the last one hundred years, during which governments have claimed virtually absolute and unlimited authority over national monetary systems through the institution of paper money.

At least before the First World War (1914-1918) the general consensus among economists, many political leaders, and the vast majority of the citizenry was that governments could not be completely trusted with management of the monetary system. Abuse of the monetary printing press would always be too tempting for demagogues, special interest groups, and shortsighted politicians looking for easy ways to fund their way to power, privilege, and political advantage.

The Gold Standard and the Monetary “Rules of the Game”

Thus, before 1914 the national currencies of practically all the major countries of what used to be called the “civilized world” were anchored to market-based commodities, either gold or silver. This was meant to place money outside the immediate and arbitrary manipulation of governments.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Time For Torches & Pitchforks——-The Little Guy Is About To Get Monkey-Hammered Again

December 30, 2015

Time For Torches & Pitchforks——-The Little Guy Is About To Get Monkey-Hammered Again

The reputations of Ben and Janet are going to be eviscerated in 2016. That’s because the US economy will slide into recession in defiance of every claim they have made for their snake oil monetary policies. The plain fact is, massive falsification of financial markets via their “wealth effects” doctrine did not levitate main street prosperity at all; it just fueled another giant speculative mania in the Wall Street casino.

The prospect that the leaders of our monetary politburo are about to be tarred and feathered by economic reality might be satisfying enough if it led to the repudiation of Keynesian central planning and a thorough housecleaning at the Fed. Unfortunately, it will also mean that tens of millions of retail investors and 401k holders will be taken to the slaughterhouse for the third time this century.

And this time the Fed is out of dry powder, meaning retail investors will never recover as they did after 2002 and 2009. Moreover, the overwhelming share of main street losses will be the among baby-boom demographic——sixty and seventy something’s who will be down for the count.

As Jim Quinn so graphically put it an the adjacent piece,

Investors are lazing around the waterhole like unsuspecting gazelles. This herd will be running for their lives in the near future, as danger is lurking.

With each passing day the evidence mounts, and this morning’s trade data was a doozy. During November exports shrank by 2% and are now down 12% from the peak, and at the lowest level since March 2010.

Yes, you can count on the Keynesian paint-by-the-numbers crowd to insist that exports don’t matter that much. Goods exports are just 8% of GDP and total exports including services are 12%.

So what is 12% when Janet is busy at the Fed’s dashboard, tweaking the dials and thereby goosing the labor market back to the pink of full employment health?

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

A Free Market in Interest Rates

December 17, 2015

A Free Market in Interest Rates

The Corn Control Agency

Unless you’re living under a rock, you know that we have an administered interest rate. This means that the bureaucrats at the Federal Reserve decide what’s good for the little people. Then they impose it on us.

In trying to return to freedom, many people wonder why couldn’t we let the market set the interest rate. After all, we don’t have a Corn Control Agency or a Lumber Board (pun intended). So why do we have a Federal Open Market Committee? It’s a very good question.

Federal_Open_Market_Committee_Meeting Where the central planers meet. It’s all very Sovietesque, except the furniture isn’t as run-down as it used to be at GOSPLAN
Photo credit: Nils Tycho

Someone asked it at the recent Cato Monetary Conference. George Selgin answered: no matter if the Fed stands pat or does something, it’s still setting rates. This is a profound truth, which brings us to a fatal flaw in the dollar.

In our irredeemable currency, interest cannot be set by the market. There’s literally no mechanism for it. To understand why, let’s start by looking at the gold standard.

Under gold, the saver always has a choice. If he likes the rate of interest, he can deposit his gold coin. If not, he can withdraw it. By withdrawing, he forces the bank to sell an asset.

That in turn ticks down the price of the bond, which is the same as ticking up the rate of interest. His preference has real teeth, and that’s an essential corrective mechanism.

Unfortunately, the government removed gold from the monetary system. Now you can own it, but your choices have no effect on interest. If you buy gold, then you get out of the banking system.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Paper Money Versus the Gold Standard

December 15, 2015

Paper Money Versus the Gold Standard

We are living in a time that can only be considered monetary chaos. The U.S. Federal Reserve has manipulated key interest rates down to practically zero for the last six years, and expanded the money supply in the banking system by $4 trillion dollars over that time. And with the true mentality of the monetary central planner, the Fed Board of Governors are now planning to manipulate key interest rates in an upward direction that they deem desirable.

The European Central Bank (ECB) has instituted a conscious policy of “negative” interest rates and planned an additional monetary expansion of well over a trillion Euros over the next year. Plus, the head of the ECB has assured the public and financial markets that there is “no limit” to the amount of paper money that will be produced to push the European economies in the direct that those monetary central planners consider best.

We also should not forget that it was the Federal Reserve that earlier in the twenty-first century undertook a monetary expansion and policy of interest rate manipulation that set the stage for the severe and prolonged “great recession” that began in 2008-2009, in conjunction with a Federal government distorting subsidization of the American housing market.

The media and the policy pundits may focus on the day-to-day zigs and zags of central bank monetary and interest rate policy, but what really needs to be asked is whether or not we should continue to leave monetary and banking policy in the discretionary hands of central banks and the monetary central planners who manage them.

Central Banking as Monetary Central Planning

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Next Level of John Law Type Central Planning Madness

November 7, 2015

The Next Level of John Law Type Central Planning Madness

Cries for Going Totally Crazy are Intensifying

What are the basic requirements for becoming the chief economist of the IMF? Judging from what we have seen so far, the person concerned has to be a died-in-the-wool statist and fully agree with the (neo-) Keynesian faith, i.e., he or she has to support more of the same hoary inflationism that has never worked in recorded history anywhere. In other words, to qualify for that fat 100% tax-free salary (ironically paid for by assorted tax serfs), one has to be in favor of central economic planning and support policies fully in line with today’s economically illiterate orthodoxy. Meet Maurice Obstfeld, who has just taken the mantle.

For all we know the man is merely misguided and otherwise a nice person (in fact, he’s laughing a lot in photographs and seems a personable enough fellow). But his proposals could eventually affect the lives of countless people in the whole world, so he is fair game for robust criticism. We personally believe that he and other members of our “enlightened” technocratic ruling class should resign without delay and start looking for productive work instead of parasitizing and hampering the ever shrinking class of genuine wealth producers, but it seems unlikely that they will be interested in our opinion.

There once was a time when monetary cranks of the sort in charge nearly everywhere today were laughed out of the room. Today they are perfectly free to drive what is left of the market economy over the cliff. Mr. Obstfeld turns out to be yet another in a long list of luminaries belly-aching about (non-existing) “deflation” – this is to say, the alleged danger that the purchasing power of consumer incomes and savings might increase at some point. Allegedly, this remote eventuality has to be guarded against at all costs.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Civilisation of Capitalism

October 22, 2015

The Civilisation of Capitalism

This piece was written for The Cobden Centre by Vishal Wilde. Vishal Wilde is a finalist studying for a BSc (Hons) in Philosophy, Politics & Economics (Economics major) at the University of Warwick. He wishes to spend his life fighting for and defending freedom. He is a Freelance Journalist (writing, most recently, for the Market Mogul), he writes Poetry, Science-Fiction and Fantasy and conducts independent academic research in Economics, Political Science and Philosophy. He is a Research Consultant for Fantain Sports, Pvt Ltd. (a tech startup based in India). He has previously written research articles and blogged for the Adam Smith Institute.

‘The Civilisation of Capitalism’: Schumpeter on Rationality and its relevance to the ideal of a free society

In Joseph Schumpeter’s (1942) Capitalism, Socialism & Democracy , Chapter 11 is entitled ‘the Civilisation of Capitalism’. There, he argues that the culture fostered by Capitalism has been responsible for the ‘rationalisation’ of society, as we know it. Rather than quoting Schumpeter word-for-word, I’d encourage people to read that short chapter. We can derive inspiration from Schumpeter’s thoughts in making the case for free markets and a free society.

Intuitively, one would expect the individual living in a free society to be more intelligent and rational than his counterpart in a hypothetical, centrally planned Utopia (like Plato’s Republic). In a predominantly centrally planned economy, where there is deprivation of civil liberties, choices have already been made on our behalf whereas in a free society, people have more choices. The typical individual in the former will, most likely, be more naïve than his counterpart in a freer society and in the latter more rational. The freer society is, the greater the sphere in which people can develop the appropriate mental faculties for optimising outcomes.

– See more at: http://www.cobdencentre.org/2015/10/the-civilisation-of-capitalism/#sthash.DwTGy8Vx.dpuf

The Paradox of Risk: Central Planning Is Linear, Reality Is Non-Linear

October 14, 2015

The Paradox of Risk: Central Planning Is Linear, Reality Is Non-Linear

You thought it was safe to drive 90 miles an hour on a rain-slicked narrow road while you were tipsy because the airbag would save you, but it still hurts when you crash.

I first discussed the Paradox of Risk in August, 2008, just before the stock market melted down: The Unintended (Risky) Consequences of “Backstopping” Risk(August 12, 2008)

This is the Paradox of Risk: the more risk is apparently lowered, the higher the risk we are willing to accept.

I recently covered a related topic, The Dangerous Illusion That Risk Can Be Offloaded Onto Others (October 2, 2015).

The paradox is that believing risk has been eliminated leads us to take on insane levels of risk–levels that we would never have accepted before, levels that essentially guarantee our financial destruction.

I recently had the opportunity to discuss these topics with Max Keiser: Keiser Report: Global Paradox of Risk (25:40 — I join Max and Stacy in the 2nd half)

There are a variety of sources of the belief that risk has been lessened or eliminated:

1. The Fed Put, the belief that the Federal Reserve will never let stocks decline by more than a few percentage points before it steps in and saves the market from any further decline.

2. The belief that hedges dependent on counterparties paying off when the market craters have effectively transferred risk to others.

3. The belief in Modern Portfolio Management, i.e. that risk can be hedged or reduced to near-zero by diversifying one’s portfolio, investing in assets with low correlation, etc.

All of this is nice, but fatally flawed. Max and I discuss the reality that markets are not linear, they are fractal.

Central planning is linear, but reality is non-linear. The net result is the Fed can do whatever it wants, whenever it wants, and markets will still crash from time to time.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Why Big Tech May Be Getting Too Big

September 28, 2015

Why Big Tech May Be Getting Too Big

Conservatives and liberals interminably debate the merits of “the free market” versus “the government.” Which one you trust more delineates the main ideological divide in America.

In reality, they aren’t two separate things and there can’t be a market without government. Legislators, agency heads and judges decide the rules of the game. And, over time, they change the rules.

The important question, too rarely discussed, is who has the most influence over these decisions and in that way wins the game.

Two centuries ago slaves were among the nation’s most valuable assets, and a century ago, perhaps the most valuable asset was land. Then came another shift as factories, machines, railroads and oil transformed America. By the 1920s most Americans were employees, and the most contested property issue was their freedom to organize into unions.

In more recent years, information and ideas have become the most valuable forms of property. This property can’t be concretely weighed or measured, and most of the cost of producing it goes into discovering it or making the first copy. After that, the additional production cost is often zero.

Such “intellectual property” is the key building block of the new economy. Without government decisions over what it is, and who can own it and on what terms, the new economy could not exist.

But as has happened before with other forms of property, the most politically influential owners of the new property are doing their utmost to increase their profits by creating monopolies that must eventually be broken up.

The most valuable intellectual property are platforms so widely used that everyone else has to use them, too. Think of standard operating systems like Microsoft’s Windows or Google’s Android; Google’s search engine; Amazon’s shopping system; and Facebooks’ communication network.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Riding ZIRP Into The Doom Loop—–Monetary Central Planning’s Dead End

September 19, 2015

Riding ZIRP Into The Doom Loop—–Monetary Central Planning’s Dead End

What the Fed really decided Thursday was to ride the zero-bound right smack into the next recession. When that calamity happens not too many months from now, the 28-year experiment in monetary central planning inaugurated by a desperate Alan Greenspan after Black Monday in October 1987 will come to an abrupt and merciful halt.

Why? Because Keynesian money printing is in a doom loop. The Fed’s ZIRP policies guarantee another financial crash, which will trigger still another outbreak of panic in the C-suites of corporate America and a consequent liquidation of excess inventories and labor on main street. That’s the new channel of monetary policy transmission, and it eventually leads to recession.

This upcoming recession, in turn, will prove beyond a shadow of doubt that in today’s financialized global economy you can’t manage the GDP of a single country as if it were isolated in an economic bathtub surrounded by high walls; nor can you attain domestic macro-targets for employment and inflation through the blunderbuss instruments of pegged money market rates and wealth effects levitation of the stock market.

Instead, the Fed’s falsification of financial asset prices simply subsidizes gambling in secondary markets; enables daisy chains of collateral to be endlessly hypothecated and re-hypothecated; causes vast misallocations and malinvestments of corporate resources, especially stock buybacks and other financial engineering; and sends money managers scrambling for yield without regard to risk, such as in junk bonds and EM debt.

What it doesn’t do is get households all jiggy, causing them to boost their leverage and spend up a storm. That’s because they reached “peak debt” at the time of the financial crisis, and have been struggling to reduce debt ever since. In the most recent quarter, in fact, household debt posted at $13.6 trillion or 3% lower than in early 2008.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Freedom And Central Planning Can Never Coexist

August 13, 2015

Freedom And Central Planning Can Never Coexist

The average person is a statist, whether he realizes it or not. It is important that liberty activists recognize and accept this fact because the truth of our limitations as a movement determines the kinds of solutions into which we should ultimately put our time and energy. The fantasy of a final grand march of an awake and aware majority on the doorsteps of power is just that: a fantasy. Some people might argue that given more time, such an event could be organized or could happen spontaneously. But these people seem to forget that the immediacy of any crisis inspires awareness and cuts the bindings of complacency for only a certain percentage of any given population. With “more time” often comes more complacency, not less.

So, history becomes a kind of balancing act, with crisis generating the necessity of intelligent and moral action in some people but rarely, if ever, in most people (even during the American Revolution, in which patriots represented a stark minority). The reason that the culture of freedom consistently plateaus and remains stuck at underdog status is because human beings are, first, often acclimated to the idea that crises are things that only happen to other people, and, second, they are obsessed with the idea that governments should retain prohibitory and administrative power over the public as a means to “prevent” crisis from occurring (the sheepdog and sheep mentality).

Not all people necessarily “love” their current government, but many citizens tend to see the idea of government as an inevitability of a stable society. They assume pre-eminence of the state because they have never known anything else.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Affirmatively destroying America’s neighborhoods in the war on suburbia

July 30, 2015

Affirmatively destroying America’s neighborhoods in the war on suburbia

north carolina town houses, sidewalk

Few of us understand patient gradualism. We live and have our being within a few years and mostly in an unconscious automated state of mind.

But people in power are long-term planners. They absolutely understand human nature and how to channel it to the evolution and refinement of the authoritarian state.

Authoritarianism is based on long-term planning. Authoritarianism is a philosophy of collectivism. Some call it democracy. Some call it communism. Some call it fascism. Some call it National Socialism. But whatever you call it, it is all collectivism or authoritarianism; and in its ultimate form it is globalism.

The goal is perfect docility and perfect harmony with authoritarianism (economic, social and spiritual). Until the people accept collectivism under some pretext, they are not docile and completely subdued. Once they do, rebellion and confrontation are impossible. This is the ultimate goal of the globalists, and the American system is nearing this state.

As I told you last week in “Why is the war on the Confederacy still going on today?,” the dismantling of the middle class has become the appointed, full-time task of the largest government alphabet soup agencies and Wall Street on behalf of globalism. The purpose behind this is that if those big middle-class producers and consumers can be decimated once and for all, then they can join the ranks of low-wage workers and more readily accept government largess and, thereby, become “hooked” on collectivism.

Collectivism is a certain means of social, economic and religious control. Politicians regularly espouse individualism, human liberty and democracy at the same time. Impossible! Individualism and human liberty are opposite to democracy and any other form of collectivism. The collectivist mentality or the mass collective mind is the spirit of the New World Order.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

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