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The financial system has entered uncharted waters and it would be wise to take nothing for granted. To assume the economy will move forward without a glitch in such an environment is extremely optimistic. With time, things change and evolve, this transformation can be seen in both society and the economy. We are constantly bombarded with charts showing where things are going based on historical references but a question we must ask is just how relevant today’s comparisons are with prior economic cycles?Over the decades we have moved from an agricultural-based society to an industrial-centered economy where manufacturing and services have become the dominant way of making a living. Now, we are rapidly moving in the direction of technology becoming the main driver of the economy and it is creating a huge cultural change. The economy is again undergoing a metamorphosis. Over time, we tend to forget or minimize in our minds that throughout history the growing pains flowing from such a change tend to batter society from every direction. These transformations also create a great deal of noise making it difficult to understand what is happening.

Please consider the possibility the important adjustments the economy must make are lagging far behind our current “financial culture” or that the economy has evolved in a way that simply no longer works. Much of this has yet to become apparent to the masses and is masked by institutions papering over problems. A tradition of optimism has served mankind well, however, it has become clear something seems to be broken or out of kilter. It does not help that things like stock buybacks and outright fraud are creating a situation that could at any minute spin out of control. Making matters worse is that the general population is oblivious to this, and conditioned to accept whatever they are told. To many people, this is the new normal.

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Investments In Intangible Assets Have Minimized Inflation

June 8, 2021

Investments In Intangible Assets Have Minimized Inflation

Damn near every economist and analyst seem oblivious to the point being made in this article. The Fed should be ecstatic so many people are willing to invest in intangible assets. By not buying tangible and real items they help to minimize inflation. In our bullshit world where media outlets like Bloomberg tout the message if you are not in this rising market, you are missing out, it is understandable that people want in. With this in mind, it is no wonder the investment world has become a minefield that is often compared to a casino.An intangible asset is a useful resource that lacks physical substance. Examples are patents, copyrights, trademarks, and goodwill. Such assets produce economic benefits but you can’t touch them and their value can be very difficult to determine. These intangible assets are often in sharp contrast to physical assets like machinery, vehicles, and buildings.

This Does Not Tell The Whole Story

The term tangible assets, in this case, could be used to describe shorter-term assets, such as inventory since these items are intended for sale or conversion to cash. Most tangible assets can be easily converted to cash, this is why most people include as “tangible” the amount of money in a bank account. Even though money held by a bank is a paper promise, it falls into a “grey area” in that it holds the characteristic of being rapidly converted to something real like property such as cars, houses, or boats. Some of these accounts can also be used as collateral in case you want a loan.
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The CPI Revisited And Its Failure To Reflect True Inflation

May 24, 2021

The CPI Revisited And Its Failure To Reflect True Inflation

The cost of living numbers prepared by the Bureau of Labor Statistics are highly misleading. Currently, the government understates inflation by using a formula based on the concept of a “constant level of satisfaction” that evolved during the first half of the 20th century in academia. This extended into the BLS re-weightings sales outlets such as discount or mass merchandisers with Main Street shops. Those promoting this change claimed it was simply another way to measure inflation and it still reflected the true cost of living.

The fact is, politicians and those behind this system created it as a way to reduce the cost of living adjustments for government payments to Social Security recipients, etc. By moving to a substitution-based index and weakening other constant-standard-of-living ties those reporting inflation have muddied the water as to just how much we are being impacted by inflation. The general argument used to promote this change was that changing relative costs of goods results in consumers substituting less-expensive goods for more expensive goods.

Allowing for a substitution of goods within the formerly “fixed-basket” supposedly allows the consumer flexibility in obtaining a “constant level of satisfaction.” This adjustment to the inflation measure was touted as more appropriate for the GDP concept in measuring shifting demand and weighting actual consumption. Other tricks were also used to give the illusion of less inflation. In cases where the quality of the product are deemed by the government to be “improved” prices in the CPI, calculations are now adjusted lower to offset the higher quality. Extending this idea the Baskin Commission Report, December 4, 1996, actually used steak and chicken for its substitution example.

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Dollar’s Demise And Doom Predictions Are “Over Hyped”

May 17, 2021

Dollar’s Demise And Doom Predictions Are “Over Hyped”

A lot of people including Americans have come to the conclusion the dollar is about to collapse. Predictions of the dollar’s demise are likely premature and overblown. Recently a combination of factors has caused people to become concerned about storing their wealth in the dollar. This has created huge interest in both precious metals and cryptocurrencies. Several things are driving the trend to diminish the dollar and other fiat currencies. One is the idea governments have targeted cash and wish to move us towards a “cashless” society where they control our every move. Another is rooted in the idea inflation is about to raise its ugly head as currencies are debased. The Sounding Line recently ran an article about how Stanley Druckenmiller, who made his name on highly successful currency trades including ‘breaking’ the Bank of England, says that he expects the U.S. Dollar to lose reserve currency status within 15 years due to a “totally inappropriate” combination of radical monetary and fiscal stimulus. Many people agree with him, the big question is how soon a major adjustment will take place. Clearly, 15 years is not tomorrow and it is difficult to look out that far.

I contend that currencies have been trading in a hyper-manipulated state for several years. Fiat money tends to create a shelter from volatility. This is because once wealth is placed into this rather closed system, it tends to remain there. After all, laws and rules discourage it from breaking free. It is the coordinated collusion of the major central banks that have allowed this charade to exist. The fact it has not been recognized or acknowledged does not alter or guarantee the system will continue. The failure or major repricing of any of the world’s four major reserve currencies will destroy the myth that major currencies are immune to the fate that has haunted fiat money throughout history.

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The Inflation Monster Has Been Unleashed

May 10, 2021

The Inflation Monster Has Been Unleashed

The monster known as inflation has been unleashed upon the world and will not easily retreat into the night. This is reflected in soaring commodity and housing prices. Due to the stupid and self-serving policies of the Fed, we are about to experience a massive shift in the way we live. Bubbling up to the surface is also the recognition the Fed has played a major role in pushing inequality higher. This means that inflation is about to devour the purchasing power of our income and the savings of those that have worked hard and saved over the years.

Over the months we have watched Fed Chairman Jerome Powell time and time again cut rates and increase the Fed’s balance sheet. This has hurt savers, forced investors into risky investments in search of yield, damaged the dollar, encouraged politicians to spend like drunken sailors, and increased inequality. The greatest wealth transfer in history has already begun and the next crisis will only accelerate the process. Sadly, the same policies that dump huge money into larger businesses because it is an easier and faster way to bolster the economy give these concerns a huge advantage over their smaller competitors.For decades the American people have watched their incomes lag behind the cost of living. To make matters worse, the official numbers of the so-called Consumer Price Index (CPI) have been rigged to understate inflation and not to reflect the true impact it was having on our lives. Want to know where the real cost of things is going, just look at the replacement cost from recent storms and natural disasters. Currently, the government understates inflation by using a formula based on the concept of a “constant level of satisfaction” that evolved during the first half of the 20th century in academia..

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Placing Energy In A Battery Results In A Loss Of Power

May 7, 2021

Placing Energy In A Battery Results In A Loss Of Power

Anyone that thinks we can simply store huge amounts of energy in large banks of batteries to use at any time has lost touch with reality. The brave new world of energy storage may not prove to be all it is cracked up to be. At this point, and for the foreseeable future storing the power we need in batteries is just another part of the “green delusion” that has infected society. We seldom think about it but the energy we put into a battery is not what we get out. There is a loss of energy in the transfer and during the time it is stored.

An article published on the naked scientists.com years ago states, not all of the energy which you use to charge a battery will come out of the battery in the end. That remains true today. If you look at the efficiency of charging standard, nickel cadmium, or nickel metal hydride battery, the efficiency is about 60 to 70%, so you’re wasting 30 or 40% of the energy you’re putting into the battery itself.

If you feel that a battery while it is being charged you will find it gets warm. This indicates energy is being wasted. You’re also wasting some more energy in the charger because the “transfer” is not 100% efficient either. So, you might be talking about half the energy you’re using actually ending up in that battery. While 60% efficiency doesn’t sound very good, it’s far, far better than what is achieved in a throw-away battery, they are often said to be only 1 or 2% efficient. That’s because you’ve got to get materials to make the battery, you’ve got to refine them, and you’ve got to put them all into a case.

Battery	Charge/Discharge Efficiency
Li-ion	80% – 90%
Pb-Acid	50% – 92%
NiMH	66%

Table 1: Battery efficiencies [1-3]

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Trade Deficit Again Growing, Now It’s Bigger Than Ever

May 3, 2021

Trade Deficit Again Growing, Now It’s Bigger Than Ever

The trade deficit with China continues to weaken America and strengthen our rival. For all the ruckus it created, the trade war failed to bring down the trade deficit. Even while unusual circumstances continue to cloud the picture it appears that America’s trade picture is in worse shape today than when it started. This is evidenced by the number of container ships from Asia lined up at American ports. The trade talks started in early 2017 and have dragged on with promises of a deal always around the corner. Looking back, we were told, they were always moving forward or nearing completion but such announcements generally proved premature.Today, the trade deficit is growing and is bigger than ever. Those familiar with China and how it negotiates knew the Chinese would never agree to, or more importantly, honor any deal not strongly tilted in their favor. The events that unfolded and overshadowed the trade talks not only surrounded Covid-19 but more importantly how governments and central banks reacted to the pandemic. Here in America, a tsunami of freshly printed money was unleashed upon the masses creating the oddest recession in history. To be blunt, Americans saw their incomes soar while locked away in their homes and unable to attend work.

This of course resulted in consumers buying goods, many of them imported from China, rather than doing the right thing and paying obligations such as rent or mortgage payments. In fact, our government with little thought to the long-term ramifications, added fuel to this buying binge when it rapidly imposed a moratorium on evictions and foreclosures. This means we should expect the controversy over just how much trade contributes to America’s economic growth to again rise as growth slows…

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Stock Buybacks A Piece Of “Financial Engineering Game”

April 26, 2021

Stock Buybacks A Piece Of “Financial Engineering Game”

In today’s market far too much has become based on financial engineering rather than making money. Prior to the Great Depression share buybacks and margin lending was a huge factor in lifting stocks to an unsustainable level. We must remember this today because for years we have seen a slew of stories and articles about how companies buying back their own stock are driving the market higher. I would be amiss not to comment on this and point out the impact and importance of stock buybacks and how they add to both low volatility and at the same time support “crazy high” valuations.

For decades stock buybacks were illegal because they were considered to be a form of stock market manipulation. They were legalized in 1982 by the SEC and since then have become a tool for companies and management to boost share prices. Buybacks have been described as “smoke and mirrors,” because when a company buys back shares of their own stock they reduce the “share float” and increase earning per share.

Stock Buybacks Just Keep Coming

Buybacks should be viewed as a double-edged sword with great power in that they reduce the number of shares over which earnings are divided at the same time they add to market demand. Buybacks can give the impression the companies earnings are increasing while in reality, overall earnings may be flat or even on the decline. The deregulation of buybacks years ago has returned to haunt us because it tends to create a dangerous illusion that draws less sophisticated investors into a market that is not nearly as strong as it appears. …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Next Economic Crisis – Will Your Wealth Survive?

April 19, 2021

The Next Economic Crisis – Will Your Wealth Survive?

The greatest wealth transfer in history has already begun and the next crisis will only accelerate the process. As the printing presses continue cranking out more and more money, looking forward to a time when the markets pause or another economic crisis consumes the world is an issue we all should think about. How much wealth will escape the next large financial reset is very important because it will set the bar that determines the rate of inflation or deflation in coming years. If you believe we did not solve many of our financial problems after 2008 but merely masked them with a huge amount of newly printed money you are likely to embrace this concept.

The Shell Game Of Wealth Transfer

Much like a shell game where wealth is transferred about, in our modern society wealth is always on the move. Wealth and how things are valued is far from constant, it is fungible and constantly changing. While we may try to deny it, wealth is in a constant state of flux and constantly moving. Wealth comes in many forms, it can be held in the form of paper, promises, or as something more tangible and real such as property or goods.

Some items such as a tool hold “utility value” and its value may be based on how much work it can perform or the revenue it can produce. Replacement cost, supply and demand, and factors such as whether something can spoil or might grow obsolete over time also help determine its value as a place wealth can be safely stored. The term, safely stored in this case also includes placing it out of the reach of governments’ ability to tax it or make it illegal to own.

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Biden’s Ukrainian “Putin Push” May Lead To World War III

April 1, 2021

Biden’s Ukrainian “Putin Push” May Lead To World War III

NATO Has Slowly Expanded Towards Russia

Biden was in charge of much of the “Ukraine project” during Obama’s time in office. In recent weeks President Biden has been saying some rather mean-spirited things about Russia’s President Vladimir Putin. Now Russian state sources are alleging that Washington under the Biden administration is ramping up military aid to Ukraine. This comes after the media observed the Ocean Glory, a US cargo ship, began delivering 350 tonnes of military equipment, including tactical vehicles, at Ukraine’s Odessa port. Ukraine’s Dumskaya news agency said the American vessel carried at least 35 US military humvees for Ukrainian national forces.

Adding Ukraine to NATO and the EU is a long-held dream of neocons like Victoria Nuland and neoliberals like Biden. This is also important to those supporting the World Economic Forum’s desire to expand the EU and encircle Russia. They feel such an action would disrupt any dreams of Eurasian integration which could resist their strategy to reshape the way the world is governed. Putin’s foreign policy, coupled with efforts to rebuild the Russian military, has been part of an effort by the former KGB officer to boost Russia’s standing on the world stage. This has helped make him popular with his people even as Nato has slowly been expanding in the direction of Russia, but also makes him a thorn in the side of the NWO gang.

Interestingly, this delivery of military equipment occurred near the time Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, was signing Decree No. 117/2021. The decree activates the Ukraine Army to recapture and re-unify with Ukraine, the autonomous region of Crimea, and the city of Sevastopol. The military has been instructed to use “hybrid warfare” to re-conquer these former parts of Ukraine...

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bruce wilds, advancing time blog, joe biden, ukraine, world war 3, world war, war, united states, us government

Japan’s Economy Is Again Struggling

March 29, 2021

Japan’s Economy Is Again Struggling

Japan. the world’s third-largest economy is highly dependent on exports and the reality it is still struggling even after a great deal of America’s stimulus money leaked into buying imported goods speaks volumes. While it feels a bit like ancient history, Japan’s GDP contracted at an annualized rate of 28.8 percent in Q2 of 2020, the biggest decline on record. Even after bouncing back 21.4 percent quarter-on-quarter in Q3 and 12.7 percent in Q4 Japanese national accounts are still lagging behind mid-2019 levels. For all of 2020, spending by households with at least two people fell 5.3% due to the hit from the pandemic. It was down 6.5% for all households, the worst drop since comparable data became available in 2001.

https://cdn.statcdn.com/Infographic/images/normal/22583.jpeg

All in all, this means the country is still playing catch up, partly because Japan also experienced two additional quarters of negative growth in Q1 of 2020 and Q4 of 2019. Adding to the problem is Japan’s household spending fell for the first time in three months in December, in a sign consumer sentiment was weakening even before the government called a state of emergency to control a new wave of the coronavirus. Lower demand for services such as travel tours also weighed, as the pandemic forced the cancellation of domestic tourism promotions. Last year, spending on accommodations fell 43.7%, while overseas and domestic tour travel expenditure slumped 85.8% and 61.9%, respectively.Not only is Japan again struggling to stay out of recession, but it also faces a wall of debt that can only be addressed by printing more money and debasing its currency. This means they will be paying off their debt with worthless yen where possible and in many cases defaulting on the promises they have made. Japan currently has a debt/GDP ratio of about 240% which is the highest in the industrialized world. With the government financing almost 40 percent of its annual budget through debt it becomes easy to draw comparisons between Greece and Japan.

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japan, bruce wilds, advancing time blog, exports, recession, currency debasement, debt,

New Infrastructure Will Not Come Good, Fast, And Cheap

March 28, 2021

New Infrastructure Will Not Come Good, Fast, And Cheap

Anyone naive enough to think America is about to receive a big gift of newfangled “fixed installations” needed in order to function should look long and hard at what is really being proposed. The “underlying structure” a country and the economy rely upon includes things such as roads, bridges, dams, water and sewer systems, railways and subways, airports, and harbors. None of these things are cheap to construct and when it comes to infrastructure the words, good, fast, and cheap should never be clustered together. While many people see government spending on infrastructure as a job creator and a silver bullet for our ailing economy I would like to raise a word of caution, things are not that simple. The cynical part of me thinks the American people should get ready to get bent over and taken advantage of.

Spending Trillions Likely To Result In An Epic Fail

Now that Biden’s massive Covid-19 relief package has been signed into law, talk is moving towards what is next on the agenda, That’s where, most likely, his infrastructure plan resides, and this is a plan set to explode the budget. If you think that $1.9 trillion is a lot of money, it pales next to what the Democrats are going to propose as they continue on their spending spree. It appears that Biden wants $3 trillion or more which should scare away moderates such as West Virginia’s Joe Manchin but it has not. Not only has Manchin not blinked at $3 trillion in new spending instead, he recently stated Congress should do “everything we possibly can” to pay for it. He said there should be “tax adjustments” to former President Donald Trump’s 2017 tax law to boost revenues, his endorsement of raising the corporate rate from the current 21 percent to at least 25 percent, however, would do little.…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

bruce wilds, advancing time blog, united states, government stimulus, infrastructure, crony capitalism

Powell, Do You Even Know What The Economy Is?

March 23, 2021

Powell, Do You Even Know What The Economy Is?

To Clarify, Main Street Is Not Wall Street

After all the destructive policies we have seen coming out of the Eccles Building, it may be time to ask Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, “Do you even know what the economy is?” All the easing and stimulus has taken us to a place we could call Bubbleville. It has bolstered asset prices and speculation but done little to help Main Street or generate a strong economy. This destructive force was unleashed long before Covid-19 came into the picture and hanging our economic misfortunes on the pandemic may sound reasonable but is far from accurate.History shows that misguided financial policies often end in a crisis, in this case, it is likely to play out in massive inflation. Milton Friedman knew a bit about this, he said; The government benefits the first from new money creation, massively increases its imbalances, and blames inflation on the last recipients of the new money created, savers and the private sector, so it “solves” the inflation created by the government by taxing citizens again. Inflation is taxation without legislation.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PeIeFUJ9EY

A comical Progressive Insurance commercial has a smooth-faced fella going on about his beard and apologizing for how he looks. Finally, a coworker asks him, “Jamie, do you even know what a beard is?” Over the months we have watched Fed Chairman Jerome Powell time and time again cut rates and increase the Fed’s balance sheet. This has hurt savers, forced investors into risky investments in search of yield, damaged the dollar, encouraged politicians to spend like drunken sailors, and increased inequality.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

bruce wilds, advancing time blog, jerome powell, fed, us federal reserve, bubble, financial policies, fed balance sheet, inflation, taxation, inequality

The Problem With Helicopter Money Is That It Is Inefficient

March 14, 2021

The Problem With Helicopter Money Is That It Is Inefficient

The Money Supply Has Exploded

The term helicopter money refers to unconventional methods used to get money into the hands of people that will rapidly put it to use. Whether to buy products or pay bills it is often seen as a way to kick start a stalled economy in need of a boost. This is seen as an alternative to quantitative easing and is considered by some a faster way to add liquidity into the economy. It could be argued that over the years such policies have proven to be inefficient and poorly targeted. While helicopter money may accomplish a certain goal such as supporting a market, it is poorly targeted and seldom addresses the root problems in a financial system or economy.

The failure of central banks across the world to use their power to push governments to undertake reforms is coming home to haunt us. Rather than assuming the role of enforcer and protector of our fiat currency system central banks across the world have joined with governments in what I call the “Financial-Political Complex.” This is comprised of the organizations, comprised of authorities, politicians, and bureaucrats that want increased power and influence. These people benefit a great deal by unleashing huge sums of fiat currency upon the masses and ignoring the long-term ramifications of their actions upon the financial system. It should not bring comfort to the average man that these unholy forces have joined together in such a union.

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Expect Government Crackdowns In A “Global Depression”

March 8, 2021

Expect Government Crackdowns In A “Global Depression”

For those professing a preference for one type of government over another, an ugly reality is they all cut from the same cloth. Whether we are talking about Democracy, Communism, Socialism, or Fascism the strong link they share is one of dominance and a desire to control. While seen as vastly different systems with distinct goals, each is rooted in the promise people should sacrifice as needed for “the greater good.” The main flaw in a democracy is that it allows a simple majority to force their desires upon others. This is why our forefathers set checks and balances in the Constitution, however, even these do not guarantee freedom will remain. Today, the burden of risk and the amount of “skin in the game” is not equally shared by all of society. Over time our financial system and institutions have been corrupted by crony capitalism and a political system that panders to the masses by exchanging favors for baubles. It could be argued that those in power don’t have to take away our freedom by force if we are willing to surrender it or trade it for a few paid weeks off work. Nor do they have to be fair in how they go about this if they simply get a majority of the populace to go along with their plan.

The suspicion governments are self-serving creatures is apparent in the old school British imperial definition of “commerce” which used free trade as a cover for the military dominance of weak nations. Those put in a position of being exploited often saw this as simply a ruse promoted by those wishing to abuse them. In short, opening borders and turning off protectionism simply makes it easier to rob countries of their wealth. America, a wayward child of England, has been accused of following this same path.

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