Home » Posts tagged 'oilprice.com' (Page 21)

Tag Archives: oilprice.com

When earlier this week reports emerged that Saudi Arabia is striving to keep oil prices in the range of US$70-80 per barrel in a bid to balance its need for higher prices with President Trump’s insistence that oil is kept within reasonable bounds, few must have been surprised.

OPEC’s leader and passionate supporter of Trump’s policy towards Iran had few useful moves in an environment featuring fast-rising prices and unhappy consumers from India to the States. It found itself between the rock of high prices, necessary for the Kingdom to pursue the widely advertised economic reforms under its Vision 2030 program, and the hard place of its closest ally’s own agenda, which unsurprisingly involved lower prices at the pump ahead of the midterm elections this November.

According to some, the hard place will disappear after the midterm elections. S&P Global Platts senior writer on oil Herman Wang is among them. In a recent analysis, Wang wrote that Trump’s pressure on Riyadh to keep a cap on prices could dissipate after the elections, potentially offering Saudi Arabia the freedom to adjust its production any way it sees fit to get to a more desirable price level.

Yet the extent of this freedom remains an open question: Wang notes that the midterm elections are a day after the entry into effect of the second round of U.S. sanctions against Iran, and additional supply will need to be provided to soften the blow. Trump has already authorized the sale of 11 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in November, but this will not be enough: S&P Platts analysts estimate the sanctions could take 1.4 million bpd of Iranian crude off the global market. Someone else will have to step in and pump more if prices are to stay within the current range.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Next Global Oil Hotspot

September 7, 2018

The Next Global Oil Hotspot

There are at least 41 billion untapped barrels of crude oil in sub-Saharan Africa, the U.S. Geological Survey estimated two years ago. During the downturn, oil companies bought licenses there and waited for the price environment to improve to advance their drilling plans. Independents such as Tullow Oil and Kosmos Oil expanded on the continent alongside supermajors such as BP. Now, these drilling plans are gathering pace.

Uganda is one of the hot spots. A newcomer on the oil scene, the landlocked country has welcomed Tullow Oil, CNOOC, and Total in its oil-rich regions. The country’s government sees investments of US$15-20 billion made into its oil industry during the next three to four years and plans to build a pipeline to the Tanzanian coast and a refinery to jumpstart an oil industry, even though no oil is being produced in Uganda yet.

Senegal is another focus of attention. The SNE project, comprising three offshore blocks, might contain up to 1.5 billion barrels of crude, Australian explorer FAR, one of the partners developing the SNE, said. The partnership also includes ConocoPhillips, Cairn Energy—the operator—and Senegal’s oil company Petrosen. The final investment decision on the project is expected next year. The first phase of the project would tap an estimated 240 million barrels.

Senegal is also a potential major gas producer. Kosmos and BP—partners in the offshore gas discovery Tortue that extends into Mauritania waters—expect a final investment decision (FID) for the Greater Tortue project around the end of 2018 and are aiming for first gas in 2021.

Kenya is another African oil hopeful. First oil in Kenya was found in 2012 by Tullow Oil and in June this year the east African country even started exporting crude under a pilot scheme that would see 2,000 bpd trucked to the port city of Mombasa and stored until there is enough to be loaded on tankers and shipped abroad.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Shale Won’t Trigger The Next Financial Crisis

September 6, 2018

Shale Won’t Trigger The Next Financial Crisis

Many think that debt and negative cash flow by U.S. shale companies will crash the global financial system. I believe the opposite is more likely, that a developing financial crisis may crash oil prices and test the survival of shale plays.

In The Next Financial Crisis Lurks Underground, Bethany McLean argues that the U.S. energy boom is on shaky ground because of excessive debt and failure to show profits after a decade of drilling. This thoughtful op-ed raises concerns that many have expressed since the advent of tight oil production.

The problem with her thesis is that debt from the U.S. oil sector is just not big enough to crash the global financial system. Losses and bankruptcies in that sector in 2015-16 were substantial and yet, did not threaten the stability of world financial markets. In the improbable worst case scenario, the U.S. government would step in as it did for the auto industry in 2009.

Higher oil prices are inevitable at some time sooner than later because of under-investment over the last several years of low prices. This is compounded by lack of big discoveries and ever-present geopolitical supply interruptions and outages.

Ms. McClean correctly identifies the link between near-zero interest rates and the rise of tight oil financing. She fails, however, to acknowledge the 2004-2008 plateau of world production at the same time that demand from China greatly increased. This pushed oil prices to more than $100/barrel–the main factor that made tight oil development feasible. Because that price trend continued for 4 years, supply overshoot led to the oil-price collapse of late 2014.

The two price cycles since then are shown in Figure 1 as a cross plot of oil price vs comparative inventory (current oil + product stock levels minus the 5-year average of those stock levels).

(Click to enlarge)

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Say Goodbye To Cheap Oil… For Now

September 5, 2018

Say Goodbye To Cheap Oil… For Now

Oil prices will be much higher over the next few years than previously thought, according to a new report from Barclays.

The investment bank significantly raised its pricing forecast for 2020 and 2025 in its annual medium-term oil report. Barclays expects Brent to average $75 per barrel in 2020, up from a previous estimate of $55, while prices may average $80 in 2025, up from $70 previously.

The bank noted that the market is dramatically different than it was at this point last year when it issued its previous medium-term report. U.S. shale drillers are maintaining capital discipline, which could lead to lower than expected production levels. OPEC and Russia have demonstrated resolve and laid the groundwork for long-term market management, which could keep supply off the market for years to come.

Also, the U.S. has deployed an aggressive sanctions campaign against Iran and even Venezuela, measures that should translate into more than a million barrels of per day of supply losses. And finally, “several key OPEC producers are at risk of being failed states,” Barclays concluded.

But that does not mean that the world is set to suffer from supply shortages. “Prices could reach $80 and higher in the short term, but these price levels have reawakened the industry’s animal spirits,” Barclays said. “In our view we are not on the cusp of another boom cycle in oil prices because of an impending ‘supply gap.’”

Any near-term price spike will be driven by sentiment and temporary rallies, rather than a fundamental gap in supply. “Though we expect that a price range above $80 will become the new norm next decade, our market balances do not justify those price levels in the next one to two years,” Barclays argued. “There are many other possible reasons to be bullish during that time frame, but the ‘supply gap’ is not one of them.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Emerging Market Contagion Threatens Oil Market

September 4, 2018

Emerging Market Contagion Threatens Oil Market

The emerging market currency crisis is not over yet, and could yet morph into a broader contagion that threatens to drag down oil demand.

Last week, Argentina’s peso fell by around 20 percent in just a few days, taking year-to-date losses over 50 percent. The central bank frantically hiked interest rates from 45 to 60 percent in an effort to stem the losses, hoping to halt the peso’s spiraling descent. The peso regained a bit of ground, but now trades at over 37 pesos to the dollar, compared to 27 pesos per dollar in early August and 18 pesos at the start of the year.

This may seem like a problem for Argentines, but the currency turmoil is indicative of a broader malaise sweeping over emerging markets. A whole range of currencies have lost ground this year, rattling financial markets and forcing central banks to hike interest rates.

Another way of saying the same thing is that the dollar has strengthened on the back of rate tightening from the U.S. Federal Reserve, which has battered currencies across the globe. This underscores a deeper problem with the global economy: After a decade of near-zero interest rates, how does the U.S. central bank withdraw extraordinary monetary stimulus without wreaking havoc on the global economy?

The stronger dollar hits emerging markets in several ways. First, it directly knocks down emerging market currencies in terms of their value against the dollar. But, from there, the problem gets worse. A weaker currency makes dollar-denominated debt in these countries much more expensive and much harder to pay off. That can slow down the economy because businesses have to cut back, consumers have trouble paying off debt, the risk of default rises and everything slows down.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Denmark Becomes Net Oil Importer For First Time In 25 Years

September 1, 2018

Denmark Becomes Net Oil Importer For First Time In 25 Years

For the first time since 1993, Denmark is on track to become a net oil importer this year, as oil production in the Danish part of the North Sea will be lower than the country’s consumption, the Danish Energy Agency said on Thursday, revising down its oil production forecasts.

The new forecast by the agency is a change from last year’s assessment and forecasts, which had expected that Denmark would continue to be a net oil exporter for a number of years, the agency said.

Now, the country is expected to be a net oil exporter for a single year, in 2024, when oil production is forecast to exceed consumption due to expected start-up of new developments.

The Danish Energy Agency revised down its oil production forecast by 8 percent compared to last year’s forecast, mostly due to a downward revision of the resources, delays, and a “greater uncertainty regarding the development of several fields and discoveries.”

For this year, the agency expects Denmark’s oil production to average just 128,000 bpd, a figure 10 percent lower than last year’s 2018, mainly due to what is expected to be lower production from some of the larger oil fields.

Between 2018 and 2022, the oil production estimate was revised down by an average 14 percent, attributable again to lower production expected at some larger oil fields.

The outlook for Denmark’s natural gas exporter status is rosier. Denmark is expected to remain a net natural gas exporter until 2035, except for the years 2020 and 2021 when the Tyra field redevelopment—approved last year—will be underway, the Danish agency noted.

“The approval of the rebuilding of the facilities on the Tyra field implies that the uncertainty in this regard is less than before. However, great uncertainty remains with regard to the development of a number of projects hence contributing to the forecast being somewhat uncertain,” the agency said.

Canadian Court Deals Blow To Trans Mountain Expansion

August 31, 2018

Canadian Court Deals Blow To Trans Mountain Expansion

In a devastating blow to the prospects of the Trans Mountain expansion pipeline – and thus, to the entire Canadian oil sands industry – a Canadian court ruled that the federal government failed to adequately consult with First Nations affected by the project. The ruling throws the entire project into doubt.

It’s the latest setback to Canada’s oil sands industry, which ahs been struggling for a decade to build a single large-scale pipeline to move oil from Alberta to the international market. Keystone XL still sits in limbo, ten years after its original proposal, despite support from both the U.S. and Canadian governments. The graveyard of abandoned pipeline proposals has grown over the years, and could yet claim another victim.

“The Trudeau government failed in its rhetoric about reconciliation with First Nations’ and this court decision shows that,” a spokesperson for Squamish Nation said in a statement. “This decision reinforces our belief that the Trans Mountain Expansion Project must not proceed, and we tell the Prime Minister to start listening and put an end to this type of relationship. It is time for Prime Minister Trudeau to do the right thing.”

While the saga of Keystone XL has made international headlines and dragged on for years, the Trans Mountain expansion was supposed to be an easier lift. The project would be built as a twin line along the existing pipeline, reducing the environmental impact.

But it still has faced stiffed resistance on multiple fronts. The provincial government in British Columbia has aggressively opposed the project, which contributed to the near-decision by its owner, Kinder Morgan, to entirely scrap the project. In May, at the eleventh hour, unable to assuage the concerns of the American pipeline corporation, the desperate government of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau decided to nationalize the project, buying it off of Kinder Morgan’s hands at a hefty price.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Economic Crisis Looms In Iran As Sanctions Bite

August 30, 2018

Economic Crisis Looms In Iran As Sanctions Bite

In a little over two months, painful U.S. sanctions on Iran’s oil sector will take effect, but the Iranian economy is already showing signs of strain.

Iran’s currency, the rial, has fallen by more than half since the start of the year. There is now a thriving black market for U.S. dollars as the rial continues to plunge.

The turmoil has the government engaging in a bit of a circling firing squad. In July, the head of the central bank was sacked. In early August, the labor minister was ousted and just this past weekend the economy minister was removed.

The reshuffling and purging of top officials suggests that hardliners in Tehran are gaining ground against the government of President Hassan Rouhani, a moderate by comparison. “Rouhani’s failure to respond to the economic crisis with gut and grit has further isolated him,” Ali Vaez, the director of the Iran Project at the International Crisis Group, told the Wall Street Journal. “Even his erstwhile allies in the parliament are deserting what they believe is a sinking ship.”

But even though the economic indicators look poor, Rouhani’s real failure in the eyes of the hardliners has been political. That is, his government made the mistake of trusting the United States when it agreed to the 2015 nuclear deal. The Trump administration’s withdrawal from the pact earlier this year was proof in Tehran that opening up and negotiating with the U.S. on the nuclear program was a miscalculation. Rouhani has been in trouble since then, and the economic pain related to the re-implementation of U.S. sanctions is merely compounding the problem.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Rising Supply Will Keep Oil Prices Rangebound

August 29, 2018

Rising Supply Will Keep Oil Prices Rangebound

Rising oil production from various parts of the globe could keep oil prices “range-bound” for the rest of this year.

During the second quarter, fears of supply shortages began to mount, as OPEC disruptions combined with strong demand and shrinking inventories to push prices up significantly.

More recently, concerns have focused on weak demand, driven by a strong dollar, cracks in emerging markets (punctuated by the currency crisis in Turkey), and a weakening macroeconomic picture globally.

But additional bearish concerns could soon come from the supply side, a notable turnaround as the supply picture has been a bullish factor for much of this year. Market analysts grew concerned about a supply crunch a few months ago, but the outlook is now shaping up to be one of, if not abundance, then maybe “adequate” supply.

Supply outages from non-OPEC countries are actually at a 15-month high right now at 730,000 bpd. However, much of that will be resolved soon with Canada’s Syncrude facility bringing production back online. Also, a new agreement between Sudan and South Sudan could see higher output levels there, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BofAML). Meanwhile, production increases are expected in Canada, Brazil and the U.S., the three countries that continue to drive up output outside of OPEC. Altogether, the production increases will add new supply in the second half of 2018, “taming upside pressures on Brent crude oil prices,” BofAML wrote in a note.

The shale industry could face some infrastructure headwinds in the Permian, but so far that has not made a huge dent in production forecasts. In fact, U.S. shale companies are increasing spending this year. According to Rystad Energy, in the second quarter, a selection of 33 shale companies announced spending increases of a combined 8 percent relative to initial spending guidance, an additional $3.7 billion in spending.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Europe’s Natural Gas Prices Surge To Record For Summer Season

August 27, 2018

Europe’s Natural Gas Prices Surge To Record For Summer Season

Europe’s natural gas market is the most bullish it has been in years, as higher-than-expected summer demand and a tighter market drive natural gas price futures to levels last seen during this past winter’s supply crunch and to the highest for a summer season.

Natural gas prices are expected to stay strong and may still have room to rally, ahead of the next winter heating season in Europe that begins in October, analysts and traders tell Bloomberg.

Contrary to the typical summer lull in Europe’s gas prices, this year the front-month gas price in the UK—Europe’s biggest gas market—for example, is nearing the winter price from December 2017 when a deadly explosion in Austria’s gas hub at Baumgarten squeezed supplies throughout Europe. Immediately after the explosion, the price of gas for immediate delivery in the UK reached its highest level since 2013.

The past winter season in Europe was one of the coldest this decade, sending gas demand soaring and the level of natural gas stored in tanks across Europe dropping to below average levels.

Russia—which already supplies around one-third of Europe’s gas—boosted deliveries in the winter, and continued to ship higher volumes even after that, as gas importing countries were replenishing gas storage supplies that had been drained amid the cold snaps.

Come spring, demand in Europe stayed high. First, because gas storage levels were low, and second—because some of Europe’s other traditional gas-supplying countries decreased supplies over issues or maintenance at facilities.

Then summer came and with it a prolonged scorching heat wave across most of Europe for most of July and August. Demand for gas jumped again amid a tighter market and spot cargoes of liquefied natural gas (LNG) going mostly to Asia—China in particular—as sellers profit from selling their LNG on the Asian market where prices are higher than Europe’s.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Natural Gas Inventories “Dangerously Low”

August 26, 2018

Natural Gas Inventories “Dangerously Low”

Futures markets are suggesting the currently benign level of natural gas price volatility may not remain through the winter months.

According to the Financial Times, market volatility this year has been the lowest on record despite inventory levels falling 19.5 percent below average and by the time winter starts are set to be at their lowest in more than a decade.

(Click to enlarge)

Source: Bloomberg (via Financial Times)

The Financial Times puts this down to investors being lulled into complacency by a seemingly unstoppable wave of new supply from the shale market rising inexorably to meet rising demand. The government last week forecast 81.1 billion cubic feet per day in dry gas production for 2018 — a record high — and up by 7.5 billion cu ft/d from 2017, the Financial Times reports.

But is the market safe to assume shale gas will supply regardless of demand?

Natural gas producers are systematically hedging their sales throughout next year, often a sign they plan to continue an aggressive policy of drilling and expansion. That activity has contributed to a dipping of forward prices, as there are more sellers in the futures market than buyers.

But inventory levels are low — some would suggest dangerously low — after a high summer demand due to hot weather increasing demand for air conditioning. Natural gas “power burn” surged to a record 37.7 billion cubic feet per day during July, the Financial Times reports.

Such strong demand comes after a cold winter depleting stocks to unusually low levels. Inventory levels were low at the end of the summer and have not managed to be replaced during the normally slacker summer months. High demand is not helped by exports of natural gas and distillates running at record levels, aided by strong international demand and low U.S. domestic prices relative to global markets.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Canada’s Top Court Dismisses Burnaby Case Against Trans Mountain Pipeline

August 24, 2018

Canada’s Top Court Dismisses Burnaby Case Against Trans Mountain Pipeline

Canada’s Supreme Court on Thursday dismissed an appeal by the City of Burnaby—the planned end point of the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion in British Columbia on the Pacific coast, clearing another legal hurdle for the project, which still faces several lawsuits at various Canadian courts.

The City of Burnaby was seeking to overturn a decision by Canada’s National Energy Board (NEB), which ruled in favor of Kinder Morgan in December last year, saying the company is not required to comply with two sections of the City of Burnaby’s bylaws as it was preparing to begin construction of the Trans Mountain Expansion Project. The NEB found that Burnaby’s bylaw review process was unreasonable and caused an unreasonable delay.

The Trans Mountain expansion has become one of the most controversial pipeline projects in North America as it pitted two provinces—Alberta and British Columbia—against each other.

Alberta’s heavy oil producers need more pipeline capacity as their production grows, but pipeline capacity has stayed the same. British Columbia’s NDP government, which came into office last year, however, is against any new oil pipelines, although it doesn’t mind all the crude it currently gets from the existing pipeline.

The fierce opposition in British Columbia has forced Kinder Morgan to reconsider its commitment to expand the Trans Mountain pipeline, and to sell the project to the Canadian government.

“We’re disappointed that the courts seem unwilling to review decisions made by the National Energy Board that hamper municipal jurisdiction,” Burnaby Mayor Derek Corrigan said, commenting on today’s court ruling.

“Burnaby is not going away. We intend to continue to oppose this project with all legal means available to us, and will be continuing with our other legal challenges,” Corrigan added.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Is Renewable Energy As Clean As We Think?

August 24, 2018

Is Renewable Energy As Clean As We Think?

Fossil fuel energy has understandably become the clay pigeon of environmentalists in the past decades – with oil & gas companies having lied too often about the impact of their activities on climate change or environmental pollution for the public to ignore. Oil spills have destroyed many a habitat both onshore and offshore, with an immeasurable number of animals and humans having suffered. But it is important to acknowledge that oil and gas companies are not the only guilty parties, with all types of energy production leading to environmental harm in one way or another. The ‘clean’ energy narrative that is so frequently pushed by renewable advocates may not be quite as clean as you think.

This is not a rallying cry against renewable energy, the energy community needs renewables, it needs various regions specializing in different forms of energy in order to provide for the seamless coexistence of fossil and non-fossil energy sources. Nevertheless, it seems strange that so little progress has been made in identifying and dealing with the environmental risks of renewables.

Wind energy is considered to be the renewable energy source which is the most commercially attractive under current market conditions – in fact, it is so attractive that since 2012 more GW of wind power were installed in the United States than of any other resource, including fossil fuels. It is common enough to hear that wind farms are a blight on the landscape, but that complaint doesn’t carry any environmental significance. Noise, on the other hand, can have a tangible impact on the environment.

Wind plants reach a sound pressure level of 90-100 decibels, with scientific studies suggesting that exposure to such a level of noise will lead to annoyance, sleep disturbances, headaches, anxiety, depression and cognitive dysfunction.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Why The Saudis Are Still Dominating Oil Markets

August 23, 2018

Why The Saudis Are Still Dominating Oil Markets

Saudi Arabia is still clearly in control of the oil market.

The narrative that decisively took hold over the oil market in August was one of cracks in emerging market demand, concerns over the health of the global economy and fears over the fallout from the U.S.-China trade war. Turkey’s currency crisis set off a slide in emerging market currencies, which will likely undercut demand this year. The IMF warned earlier this summer that the downside risks to the economy were growing, a rather prescient prediction. On the supply side of the equation, outages from Iran loom large.

But when it comes to physical barrels on the market, Saudi Arabia is still in the driver’s seat. “While fears of trade wars will continue to influence sentiment and shape price outcomes, it is the recent shifts in OPEC, and particularly its dominant player Saudi Arabia’s, output policy which has had the biggest impact on physical balances, prices and the term structure to date,” The Oxford Institute for Energy Studies (OIES) wrote in a new report.

For the first few months of this year, Saudi Arabia maintained that the oil market was moving towards “rebalancing” with inventories in steady decline, but that there was more work to do. Saudi officials repeatedly stuck with the line that the OPEC+ agreement would not be altered before the end of the year and that they would continue to focus on bringing down inventories.

But the Trump administration’s withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal and the return of sanctions raised fears of a huge disruption in Iranian supply. Suddenly, the market looked very tight. Coming just a few weeks before the June OPEC+ meeting, the U.S.’ policy change was decisive.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Energy Is A Breaking Point In NAFTA Deal

August 23, 2018

Energy Is A Breaking Point In NAFTA Deal

Oil and gas is proving to be a sticking point in the NAFTA renegotiations, with the incoming Mexican president hoping to exclude the chapter on energy from the trade deal.

To be sure there have been a series of issues that have divided the three countries. Many of them have been resolved but even at this late date some outstanding issues remain. The U.S. and Mexico are close to hammering out their differences on cars, which would allow Canada to rejoin the talks. The three countries have not agreed on dispute resolution mechanisms, and the U.S. wants the deal to sunset every five years, which would require them to periodically renew the trade pact, a provision that Canada and Mexico oppose because it would create uncertainty.

But oil and gas are also shaping up to be a point of tension, which is an unexpected development. Incoming President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (often referred to as AMLO), who takes office in December, opposes the energy chapter in NAFTA, even as the current administration supports it, according to the Wall Street Journal. Energy was not included in the original NAFTA deal ratified in the 1990s because Mexico’s energy sector was under state control. That changed in 2013-2014 when President Enrique Pena Nieto succeeded in ending seven decades of government monopoly. Related: The Next Major Challenge For Norway’s Oil Industry

AMLO was opposed to those energy reforms when they passed, and while he has since softened his stance on the partial-privatization of oil, gas and electricity, his team is holding up the NAFTA negotiations over energy. “The energy sector was on the table, but it wasn’t a matter of concern. It was rather a technical issue on how to reflect Mexico’s overhaul in the treaty,” Carlos Véjar, a trade attorney at law firm Holland & Knight in Mexico City, told the Wall Street Journal.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Tag Archives: oilprice.com

Content

Post categories

Economic Links

Energy/Resource Links

Environmental Links

Geopolitical Links

Liberty Links

News Links

Other Links

Survival Skills

Post Archives by Category

Post navigation

Latest Posts